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Kevin Wilde
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Kevin Wilde is the chief trading strategist at alphaking.com and a Marketocracy.com Master. Investors can follow his trading advisories via his Daily AK newsletter, or have their money run for them via Marketocracy.com money management services, where Kevin's trades will be automatically entered.
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  • Decision Time For The Bulls And Bears Right Here....

    We are fast approaching the moment of truth where the Qs and SMH either breakout to new highs to panic the bears into capitulating, versus a failure to get the breakout job done later this week, early next, likely to open the selling flood-gates as the bears, emboldened by the failure, move in for the kill.

    If the Qs and SMH do breakout then I would expect an explosive rally to unfold in April that drives the trend trading indicator at the bottom of the chart below across the high risk - exit - line, which will be my cue to take profits on longs, in a replay of what happened last spring, marked by the orange circle.

    If the Qs and SMH fail to panic the bears, then I believe danger is super super high that the stock market will suffer a plunge from extreme overbought conditions to an extreme oversold one, similar to the two prior examples of rally failures marked by the red circles next to the blue ones.

    The blue circles highlight how the stock market can remain in the extreme overbought camp for prolonged periods while the ADX line is rising. The red circles highlight what happens when the ADX turns south while the stock market is overbought. The green circles show the buys once stocks reach oversold levels when the ADX is falling. The current ADX is waffling sideways, getting ready to move deliberately in one or the other direction.

    So, in short, I believe the next 2%+ day - either up or down - will set the direction of the next 15-20% move for stocks, with that decision likely to be made later this week, early next.

    Kevin

    If you would like a six month free trial to my alphaking newsletter sign up for the 30 day trial at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and we will adjust to six months. I run four tracking portfolios - so lots of stocks to buy and sell! - as well as a 401K advisory for those looking to make and protect money in their retirement nest-egg.

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long QLD, SMH.

    Tags: SMH, QLD, SPY
    Mar 27 7:37 AM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Another Week Or Two Of Rally Now Underway

    The pullback yesterday - on very low volume - leaves the stock indexes in fine shape for a rally into the end of the trading month on Thursday, which also marks the end of the first quarter. Any such rally has the potential to continue into the week after, and such window dressing buying at month and quarter end and beginning should be the prime driver of stock prices between now and then.

    Nothing has changed with the divergence/confirmation chart below, with volume and SMH lines failing to confirm the rally, while new highs, transports, and weekly ADX do. SMH and volume line breakouts above their red lines of prior highs are needed to drive the broader stock market rally higher, and I intend to be out of all stocks and ETFs next week if such breakout confirmation fails to land before then.

    Kevin

    If you would like a six month free trial to my alphaking newsletter sign up for the 30 day trial at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and we will adjust to six months. I run four tracking portfolios - so lots of stocks to buy and sell! - as well as a 401K advisory for those looking to make and protect money in their retirement nest-egg.

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long QLD.

    Mar 26 11:50 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Time To Exit Stocks Fast Approaching

    Shorter term trading is all about the technicals. Intermediate term trading is all about trends. Longer term trading is all about the fundamentals. The current technical action that sees stocks here and over in Europe hold up well despite signs of a global recession is unsustainable. Indeed, in the past when the stock market has risen in the face of weakening economic conditions stocks have ended playing a crashing catch-up.

    The news yesterdayconfirms Europe is in recession, including German manufacturing, while Chinese stocks, along with industrial commodities such as copper, also point to a world of contraction. One can only wonder at the economic turmoil that will come with busted balance sheets all-over the world matched with very high unemployment as they meet a full-blown recession.

    The economic data in the chart below shows the US economy remains above, though very close to, the recessionary 50 line. History of the global market place suggests it is simply a matter of time before the US succumbs to weakening economic conditions popping up around the world.

    The white active money manager line (bottom of the chart) has started to move south from an extreme overbought condition, though the shorter term and intermediate term indicators suggest room for at least one more run to new highs for the blow-off.

    Ultimately, fundamentals will win out, so holding stocks here should be viewed as enjoying the last of the autumn sun ahead of an economic winter that is fast approaching.

    I continue to expect to exit all stock and ETFs sometime between next week and the third week of April.

    Kevin

    If you would like a six month free trial to my alphaking newsletter sign up for the 30 day trial at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and we will adjust to six months. I run four tracking portfolios - so lots of stocks to buy and sell! - as well as a 401K advisory for those looking to make and protect money in their retirement nest-egg.

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long QLD.

    Mar 22 7:00 AM | Link | Comment!
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