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Kevin Wilde
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Kevin Wilde is the chief trading strategist at alphaking.com and a Marketocracy.com Master. Investors can follow his trading advisories via his Daily AK newsletter, or have their money run for them via Marketocracy.com money management services, where Kevin's trades will be automatically entered.
My company:
AlphaKing.com
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  • New VIX Sell Signal

    New sell signal from the VIX - highlighed by the orange circle - which usually means the VIX is about to race across the upper Bollinger Band.

    If you would like to track updates on the chart shown below sign up at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and get THREE months free access to my on-line newsletter.

    -Kevin

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long QID, TZA.

    Tags: QID, TZA
    May 14 12:13 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Signs Of A Stock Market Crash...

    The trend momentum power rating remains a reasonably strong 60% BEAR.

    No major changes in allocation is expected this week, with the current allocation on the short side via inverse ETFs, and enhanced with TZA for the hedging side of the portfolio since the hedging indicator is also negative..

    The S&P500 (not shown) closed smack above the 50 day moving average yesterday, and any downside follow-through that breaches that key technical level going forward likely opens the selling floodgates for real. Any bounce from this position is likely to be weak, and simply stalling the inevitable.

    The contrarian indicators (near top of chart below) have not crossed the oversold extreme line for nearly two years now, which is an impossibly long time without such an intermediate term correction, thus the odds are super high that we will see lower prices this time as the technical landscape regresses to the mean and normalizes.

    As mentioned in the Friday update, the key to whether the correction leads to new highs to come, or a crash to start the next Great Bear, depends on the direction of the weekly ADX (maroon line in chart below) by the time the stock market reaches the oversold extreme.

    A rising ADX would indicate strong downside momentum that would open the door to a crash as the bulls try to sell at the same time, while a falling ADX would indicate weak downside momentum that would likely lead to a rally to new highs once the correction completes.

    The dotted red line highlights the level the NASDAQ would have to fall to confirm the bull top is in to start the next Great Bear phase.

    Since the bull/bear cycle line (not shown) continues to trend down after a three year advance, odds are super high that the bears will win this one to put an end to all bull hope. That said, the latter will remain while the NASDAQ remains above the dotted red line shown in the chart below.

    The red ink should mount up fast when the S&P500 breaks below the 1850 level, which it is likely to do in a hurry once the test of the 50 day moving average fails. When the trends turns positive I will become more bullish and hopeful. Till then, the bear case should be respected and a crash planned for.

    If you would like to track updates on the chart shown below sign up at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and get THREE months free access to my on-line newsletter.

    -Kevin

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long QID, TZA.

    Tags: TZA, QID, SPY
    May 07 11:26 AM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Lip-Smacking Time For Stock Market Bears

    The trend momentum power rating is reasonably strong 60% BEAR.

    The trend remains down, confirmed with the negative stance of the hedging indicator - thus I continue to hold TTZA with 10% of portfolio value - while the contrarian indicators remain above the oversold extreme line (yellow line is the most important contrarian indicator at this juncture,) while the trend trading indicator near the bottom of the chart remains close to the low risk- entry - line (for short positions.)

    No drastic change in allocation is expected till one or more of these indicators change to trigger a new trade.

    The first expected change of the AK indicators remains the shorter term ones, which I will show and discuss tomorrow. They also currently remain above the oversold extreme buy line, thus too early for pruning short positions and inverse ETFs until they move into the buy position.

    Note the dotted red line in the chart below represents the point where the NASDAQ would need to cross to confirm the next Great Bear has begun. Note also the ADX continues to trend down, and the bears are unlikely to score that big win till the ADX turns up while the trend is down.

    That doesn't mean it won't turn up, or the stock market crash in the non-too-distant future. Just that the ADX hasn't yet turned up to set such a potential crash run in progress.

    The overall allocation is 150% short the QQQ via a 75% investment in the leveraged inverse ETF, QID, in addition to the TZA mentioned above.

    Any rally from this position should be seen as a gift to the bulls to lighten up on long positions, while the bears should be smacking their lips as they increase the amount of short exposure.

    The selling flood-gates should open for real once the current rally falters and reverses to take out recent lows.

    If you would like to track updates on the chart shown below sign up at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and get THREE months free access to my on-line newsletter.

    -Kevin

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long QID, TZA.

    Tags: QQQ, TZA, QID
    Apr 16 7:53 AM | Link | Comment!
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