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Kevin Wilde
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Kevin Wilde is the chief trading strategist at alphaking.com and a Marketocracy.com Master. Investors can follow his trading advisories via his Daily AK newsletter, or have their money run for them via Marketocracy.com money management services, where Kevin's trades will be automatically entered.
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  • Long But Hedged As We Go Into Yellen Thursday

    The trend momentum power remains a reasonably strong 60% bull.

    No changes to the overall technical set-up, as the solid and dotted green trend averages continue to trend north in the bullish set-up position, while the hedging indicator at the top of the chart continues to advise caution and hedge longs at this time.

    If you would like to track updates on the chart shown below sign up at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and get THREE months access to my on-line newsletter for free! This is a limited time offer that will not be repeated in 2013.

    This week is about the future FED chairman, Janet Yellen, who is in front of Congress on Thursday, and what she says about the FED's QE tapering plan is pivotal. If she sounds a hawk - bond tapering will happen to protect inflation, blah blah blah - then the markets are likely in for a wall of pain. If she sounds dovish - bond taping is unnecessary till unemployment improves blah blah blah - then the next leg of the blow off should start with a big running gap up.

    As I often say, it is the reaction to the news that is important regarding future stock trends, rather than what the news is. If the stock market fails to rally hard on seemingly dovish comments from Miss Yellen then that would be more telling and more bearish than if she plays up her inflation fighting credentials in front of Congress.

    And to make things just a little more interesting, you will no doubt be shocked to learn the FED have reserved their biggest block of QE bond buying this week for the same day, with $3.5 billion of bonds slated to be bought just as Janet speaks, which frees up a lot of money for stock purchases.

    The chart below sums up the battle for the remainder of the year, as we await the end of the sideways churn and corrective action so we can begin the Wave 3 melt-up run.

    I continue to patiently wait for a pullback to the red breakout line before going double up long, and continue to hedge with a small portion of TZA while the hedging indicator continues to signal the melt-up has yet to begin. The reaction to Miss Yellen should go a long way in this solving this trend/momentum dilemma.

    Kevin

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long MDY, TZA.

    Tags: MDY, TZA
    Nov 13 7:54 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Time To Hedge Longs

    The hedging indicator at the top of the chart below generates crossover buy and sell signals to trade the triple leveraged ETFs TNA and TZA with a small portion of the portfolio as hedge against larger positions held in-line with the trend.

    That hedging indicator signaled a negative cross at the close on Tuesday, signaling it was time to add some TZA to hedge long positions.

    TZA should be held till the hedging indicator turns positive. For now, batten down the hatches on the long side.

    If you would like to track updates on the chart shown below sign up at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and get THREE months access to my on-line newsletter for free! This is a limited time offer that will not be repeated in 2013.

    Kevin(click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long TZA, MDY.

    Nov 07 2:14 PM | Link | Comment!
  • 1929 Comparison With Three Peaks And A Domed Top

    If you would like to track updates on the charts shown below sign up at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and get THREE months access to my on-line newsletter for free! This is a limited time offer that will not be repeated in 2013.

    The first chart below shows the three peaks and a dome pattern, discovered and TA technician, George Lindsey.

    Update continues below chart...

    (click to enlarge)

    The next chart shows the current view of the Dow Industrials as they attempt to breakout to new highs from the #20 low test of the 200 day MA on their way to a blast off to the peak in #21 position.

    Update continues below chart...

    (click to enlarge)

    The final chart Tom DeMark's recent prediction calling for the Dow Industrials to follow the 1929 blow off pattern before we crash back to where we started. This too is eerily similar to the three peaks and a domed pattern. You have to visually lower the black line of the current Dow to match up with the blue line of 1929.

    Kevin

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long MDY.

    Oct 30 10:15 AM | Link | Comment!
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