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Kevin Wilde
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Kevin Wilde is the chief trading strategist at alphaking.com and a Marketocracy.com Master. Investors can follow his trading advisories via his Daily AK newsletter, or have their money run for them via Marketocracy.com money management services, where Kevin's trades will be automatically entered.
My company:
AlphaKing.com
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  • Danger Rises As Non-Confirmation Grows...

    No change in the technical set-up, where the trend remains up, though the short term indicators continue to signal a pullback to alleviate the overbought condition is likely on deck next, while the big money sentiment chart I show each Thursday remains on a red arrow sell, while the contrarian/ADX combo also remains on a red circle sell, which I show each Tuesday.

    All of which says a conservative 50% allocation on the long side is the way to go - for my +200% thru -200% allocation model.

    No change to the divergence/confirmation chart, which I show each Monday, with only the semis and McClellan Summation index offering green confirming arrows, while everything else remains in red arrow non-confirmation mode. Such divergence has not been seen in years, adding further technical evidence the "go cautious on the long side" stance of the AK strategy is the way to go at this tricky and potentially treacherous juncture.

    If you would like to track updates on the chart shown below sign up at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and get THREE months free access to my on-line newsletter.

    -Kevin

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long QQQ.

    Tags: QQQ
    Feb 25 11:29 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Moment Of Truth For The 1929 Crash Pattern

    The drop from the peak and subsequent rebound rally so far matches the 1929 experience closely, using 2X beta adjustment for the current Dow.

    The red numbers on right at the 2014 Dow targets if we continue down the crash path.

    Yesterday's pullback from peak lines up perfectly with the 1929 experience, and that pattern calls for an acceleration of the selling from this position.

    While I believe it is fine for skeptics to scoff at such comparisons - while the trend remains up, as it currently does - I think great caution is warranted if the slide resumes and the trend turns negative.

    Following the trend is the most effective way of ensuring one is positioned on the right side of all the big moves, whether that is an acceleration to the upside, or down into crashing misery.

    If you would like to track updates on the chart shown below sign up at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and get THREE months free access to my on-line newsletter.

    -Kevin

    (click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long QQQ.

    Tags: DIA, SPY, QQQ
    Feb 20 1:51 PM | Link | 2 Comments
  • Divergent DANGER, DANGER, Will Robinson

    The rally off recent lows was impressive in many regards, and way lacking in others.

    The rally was strong enough to reverse short term oversold conditions to the opposite extreme, with the short term indicators now signaling new sells.

    The first chart is the short term indicators - yellow and red circles the new sell signals - and following them last year made 33.6% trading the S&P500 without leverage (two signals from any of the indicators in the black boxes to trigger entry, one signal in opposite direction from any indicator to exit the trade and move to cash.)

    (click to enlarge)

    The second chart below shows many red divergent arrows from the leadership groups, with only the semiconductor sector and the McClellan Summation index confirming the current rally. This significant divergence is occurring for the first time since early 2012.

    I am cautiously long the market (50% long) - as trends are positive - though the short term overbought condition, matched with divergence of many leadership group, while the stock indexes are in or near double top position, says to be very wary of any new trend change going forward, as the bearish potential is getting stronger by the day.

    If you would like to track updates on the charts shown below sign up at alphaking.com, click on the verification email, and get THREE months free access to my on-line newsletter.

    -Kevin

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long QQQ.

    Tags: QQQ
    Feb 19 8:17 AM | Link | 2 Comments
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