Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Kevin Wrotenbery  

View Kevin Wrotenbery's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Are SCHD And NOBL Good Dividend Growth Investments? [View article]
    Another good article. iShares also has DGRO now, which seems like it could be a good option for those that are interested in this sort of thing.
    Oct 2, 2014. 10:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FedEx Is A Poster Child For Overvalued [View article]
    "Because Federal Express is a company that so many investors know of any use, they may be tempted to incorporate the Random Walk theory to influence their decision to invest. For example, if you use the service and like it, Random walk theory suggests that you might want to invest in it, but more work needs to be done before decisions are made."

    I don't understand these statements at all. What do you think Random Walk theory is, exactly?
    Sep 18, 2014. 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Has No Profits (And Why It Works) [View article]
    This was a good article. Nicely done.

    When you move from accounting to cash flow, though, you get to ignore stock-based compensation, a very real but non-cash expense. In some sense, Amazon makes profits but at the moment they go to the senior executives rather than shareholders.
    Sep 5, 2014. 03:21 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Actively-Managed Almost Passively-Priced Portfolio [View article]
    It's definitely not an income-seeking portfolio. There are some other options for that.
    Sep 3, 2014. 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Actively-Managed Almost Passively-Priced Portfolio [View article]
    I'm not an expert on distribution rules, but it doesn't look like MOAT has made any capital gains distributions since its inception:

    I did not know about the ETN, so thanks for pointing out that option.
    Sep 2, 2014. 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility Has A Lot To Do With Risk [View article]
    "Abolish volatility and you have no gains or losses just stagnation."

    Wait, what? I'll take 25% per year every year until the cows come home. Volatility means deviation from the average, not deviation from zero.
    Aug 30, 2014. 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility Has A Lot To Do With Risk [View article]
    Thanks for sharing. And don't even get me started on 'beta'. That needs to go away, IMO.
    Aug 30, 2014. 12:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility Has A Lot To Do With Risk [View article]
    P.S. I didn’t call this article “Why Warren Buffett is Wrong about Volatility and Risk”. It probably would have gotten more page views if I had. I don’t like sensationalism. Also, while I disagree with Buffett, I can’t resolve a dispute in which I am one of the participants. That would be like serving on your own jury. It’s even worse when he’s probably the most famous investor ever, and I’m one of the least famous investors ever. But no matter whom they are, unless they claim to have discovered an even prime number greater than two or something, I’m not inclined to claim other people are wrong. I will strongly imply it sometimes, though, because I can be passive-aggressive like that.
    Aug 29, 2014. 03:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Young Investors - Why Increasing Risk Is A Bad Idea For Your Portfolio [View article]

    You and I see eye-to-eye. Risk is something you tolerate as an unavoidable part of investing, not something you seek out because you are young. If there's no reason to expect higher returns, there's no reason to take on more risk. The same volatility that drives up so-called "growth" stocks today can easily turn against them tomorrow.
    Aug 28, 2014. 01:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullseye Or Missing The 'Target' For Dividend Investors [View article]
    "Looking at analyst estimates TGT is expected to grow earnings at a 0.75% annual rate over the next five years."

    Yahoo Finance shows 0.75% EPS growth for the prior five years, but the next five years estimated EPS growth is 12.76%. Reuters' mean long-term growth estimate is also 12.76%. Zacks' is lower but still 9.30%. We will see what happens.
    Aug 26, 2014. 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Wins The Race To Live Streaming TV, Expect Big Things [View article]
    I have no horse in this race but I am guessing the bottom line won't start to matter until the revenue growth rate slows to under 15% or so.
    Aug 25, 2014. 05:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nobel Prize Winner Shiller Is Damaging His Reputation With CAPE Ratio Talk [View article]
    "Yet, his repeated appearances on CNBC and his recent New York Times op-ed saying that his 25-year-old theory predicts an immanent crash of the U.S. stock market..."

    He has never said anything like that. Also, 'imminent'.
    Aug 22, 2014. 12:03 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Matter If They Matter To You [View article]
    While I agree with most of what you've written here, the oft-cited Arnott/Asness article is only about the entire stock market - when the market's payout ratio is high, future earnings growth for the market as a whole has been slightly higher than when the market's payout ratio is low. They did not study individual companies in that article.

    While I personally fall into the 'total return' camp, I see this dividends-vs-total return debate as a false dichotomy. There's no evidence I know of that indicates dividends are detrimental to a stock's total return, and many studies indicate dividend-paying stocks offer similar or higher levels of total return with less volatility. It's perfectly reasonable to buy dividend-paying stocks if your goal is to maximize total return.
    Aug 14, 2014. 05:14 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surprise: The Real Costs Of Inversions Are Paid By Ordinary Shareholders [View article]
    I learned this the hard way a couple years ago when Eaton did the same thing. My old ETN shares were exchanged for new ETN shares and I had no idea about the tax liability until the forms showed up. I understand why companies do it but it can be a real pain for investors.
    Jul 23, 2014. 04:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Selling A Few Shares Is Not The Same As Getting A Dividend [View article]
    It is interesting this provokes so much emotion.

    As for the article, I believe you are overestimating the role the exchange plays in 'altering' the price at the time the dividend goes ex. Let's say stock XYZ has a $1/share dividend whose ex-date is the 31st, and XYZ closes at $100/share on the 30th, and it closes at $99.50 on the 31st.

    All the exchanges do - as I understand it, I could be wrong, often am - is amend the comparison price by the amount of the dividend. So without the dividend the daily quote of XYZ's price and daily change would have been 99.50 -0.50 but because of the dividend, the daily quote actually shows XYZ 99.50 +0.50 because 99.50 is compared with 99 instead of 100. It's pretty much the same adjustment Yahoo! makes in their 'adjusted' prices.

    However, all the actual prices are set solely by market participants.
    May 9, 2014. 04:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment