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Kiisu Buraun  

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  • Has Dividend Growth Kept Up With Inflation? [View article]
    Very interesting.

    Sorry I missed this discussion back when it was fresh.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Mar 22, 2015. 04:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    Alan,

    "YOU ARE STILL NOT LISTENING!"

    Why do you care?

    It's obvious you and conkjc have different opinions on the subject. I doubt either of you will convince the other ... so move on and let it be.

    Before I retired, I had a sign over my desk as a reminder ... mostly to myself (and only occasionally for others) ... that stated: "no matter how it first appears, it is almost always an attitude problem".

    Even what initially appeared as no-nonsense engineering problems were, when I got down to the nitty-gritty and truly understood the situation, a thin technical frosting spread over a thick cake of attitudes.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Mar 20, 2015. 01:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Selling One Dividend Aristocrat And Buying Another Makes Sense When Reaching For Income [View article]
    Bruce,

    Thank you for the education. Definitely appreciated.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can AT&T Save Your Retirement Portfolio? [View article]
    Robert,

    For what it is worth, currently T (as of today about noon CDST) has a much higher yield than the others.

    PEP .. 2.78%
    JNJ .. 2.80%
    PG .. 3.10%
    KO .. 3.26%
    XOM .. 3.28%
    T .. 5.71%

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Mar 18, 2015. 01:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    Color me cautious.

    When I bought my Houston townhouse (late '92) and later when I bought the farm (late 2008), my cost to income ratio for each was less than 1x (before applying a 20% cash down payment).

    Keeping that ratio down meant I was able to handle the unexpected, invest for retirement and pay off each property in roughly 1/4 the scheduled time (30 year townhouse mortgage paid off in less than 7 years, 15 year farm mortgage paid off in less than 4 years).

    Even the houses I bought at a much younger age ('77, '83, '88) had multiples under 2x.

    I've known folks who have bought with higher multiples (many of my compadres in DC were paying closer to 5x), but it left them no margin for error.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Mar 18, 2015. 12:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Laws Of Cap Rate Compression And Several REITs With Mispriced Risk [View article]
    Qniform,

    Late (as usual) to the discussion, but ...

    "if I were king ... you could trust me to set things right. Do I have your support?"

    No.

    As Lord Acton stated in his letter to Archbishop Creighton: "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men, even when they exercise influence and not authority, still more when you superadd the tendency or the certainty of corruption by authority. There is no worse heresy than that the office sanctifies the holder of it. That is the point at which the negation of Catholicism and the negation of Liberalism meet and keep high festival, and the end learns to justify the means."[1]

    Best wishes,
    
    Kiisu
    1. http://bit.ly/18ESpPT
    Mar 17, 2015. 10:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    "the 1000 lb gorilla is debt".

    I agree.

    One of the prime beneficiaries of inflation is the federal government. For government inflation works as a hidden tax ... the government borrows money from investors, spends the money (at its current value) and eventually pays back the debt with cheaper dollars.

    "How do you implement negative interest rates?"

    Europe is in the process of implementing negative interest rates ... the depositor is charged for deposits and earns no interest.[1]

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    1. http://bv.ms/1MKYRBR,
    o http://nyti.ms/1MKYRBS,
    o http://bit.ly/18If6CX
    o http://on.wsj.com/1MKYRBV
    o http://on.wsj.com/1zOsUXO
    Mar 17, 2015. 05:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    "Transportation is cheaper for everything when there is less deflation."

    So the cost of transportation increases as fuel costs decrease?

    That has not been my experience. Nor, when I have talked to long distance truckers, was it something they experienced.

    "Your computer purchases will be higher during poor economic times due to costs of LTL trucking and shipping."

    That statement conflates deflation and "poor economic times". On occasion, the two may be coincident, but deflation is not a requirement nor a required precondition for "poor economic times".

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Mar 17, 2015. 05:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    I'm familiar with the standard arguments regarding the pitfalls of deflation ...
    which is "an economic term used to describe a period of declining prices for goods and services."

    However, if my combined total costs over a year effectively decreased by 1% would I be better off ... or worse off?

    I would be better off.

    Given that case, it seems there are a few ways that could be achieved:

    1. I could earn more income.
    2. My actual combined total costs could decrease by 1%.

    1 is a taxable event. To compensate for the tax loss, I would need to earn even more income to effectively decrease my expenses by 1%.2 is not a taxable event. Thus a 1% decrease in my cost is just that, a 1% cost reduction.

    David: "Deflation in the classic sense is considered broadly and across most all asset classes and markets. You don't want deflation cause you likely won't have a job. Demand falls and falls more as more are fired and falls more. Rinse/Repeat."

    The implication (of the above statement) is that as a price decreases consumers want less of it ... yet, I seem to recall very large crowds during the pre-Christmas sales ... sales which offered lower prices on a broad category of goods and services.

    So there must be some unstated, non-obvious assumptions in the statement.

    Because in my experience, as the price of an item or service goes down the demand goes up ... (stocks being perhaps the notable exception). While as the price climbs ... the demand falls.

    And with a sufficiently high price, the demand vanishes entirely.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Mar 17, 2015. 02:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dividend Aristocrats: Should They Be A Part Of Your Investing Decision? (Part 1) [View article]
    My $0.02 worth...

    With many browsers (and some other software) pressing CTRL and the "+" key will enlarge the text, while pressing "CTRL" and the "-" key will reduce the text.

    With FireFox I can increase up to 300% and reduce down to 30% of the original size.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Mar 17, 2015. 12:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bogle's Views On Retirement Income [View article]
    Smarty,

    The system as you describe it, exists (I have not heard of any reforms occurring after my retirement) ... and is yet another of the many types of fraud inherit with big government.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Mar 17, 2015. 12:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    tjn,

    My $0.02 worth...

    Investopedia defines deflation as "an economic term used to describe a period of declining prices for goods and services."

    I benefit from deflation.

    For example:

    My first PC had 64K RAM, a Z-80 4Mhz CPU, twin 8" Mitsubishi floppies, ran CP/M, cost me a bit over $2K ... and represented just under 10% of my total income.

    My most recent PC has 8G RAM, a 3Ghz dual-core CPU, a 500G hard drive, a Blu-ray optical drive, W7 Pro-64 ... cost $698 (shipping included) and represents less than 1% of my current income.

    Long distance phone calls used to cost me more than $0.25 per minute. Now those same calls are effectively free (no additional charges for long distance).

    With deflation my dollars stretch farther, which increases my quality of life, raises my standard of living, and provides residual cash for savings and investments.

    An economist once told me deflation harms the economy because people delay purchases hoping for lower future prices.

    However, I don't go hungry today with the expectation I can get a cheaper meal next week; if I rip my jeans working on the farm, I don't wait until next month to replace them; if my cattle push over a fence, I don't wait until next year to buy the materials to make repairs.

    My experience is the opposite ... I delay or skip purchases when inflation is in play ... I shop around, I wait for sales, I buy used or lower quality, or I make do with what I have... in order to reduce my cost to what I can actually afford.

    In my experience, inflation harms, and deflation helps.

    I've yet to find a realistic example on a personal level ...if I remain debt free... where the reverse is true.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Mar 16, 2015. 10:18 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs [View article]
    I certainly hope so.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Mar 16, 2015. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Don't Lie: The Dead Money REITs [View article]
    Brad,

    Being new at the REIT game, I'll expose my ignorance.

    When I look at REITs I impose the following (arbitrary) requirements:

    o A Debt to Capitalization ratio of 60% or less.
    o An S&P credit rating of BBB or higher.
    o A FFO growth rate of not less than 2%.

    Which gives me the following (alphabetized) list:
    o BXP
    o CPT
    o DLR
    o EQR
    o ESS
    o FRT
    o HCN
    o HCP
    o HME
    o NNN
    o O
    o PSA
    o VTR
    o WPC

    With the requirement of at least 10 years of dividend growth and at least a 3% dividend yield, the list collapses to:
    o DLR
    o HCN
    o HCP
    o NNN
    o O
    o WPC

    All the previous short list (except NNN which is unrated) have a ValueLine safety rating of at least 3 (O is 2) and a Financial Strength ranking of B+ or better.

    My assumption is for the novice (me), the above screens tend to indicate "quality".

    If so, then based on your article, I also need to examine P/FFO (which I do) and Dividend payout (Div/FFO) ... with the caveat that a smaller Div/FFO ratio (when less than 1) tends to increase my margin of safety.

    Is the above a reasonably fair statement?

    If not, please expand on my errors ... being embarrassed is cheaper than flushing cash.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Mar 15, 2015. 02:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bogle's Views On Retirement Income [View article]
    AS, Christine,

    The news reference might have been the following:

    The Auburn Citizen (yesterday): http://bit.ly/1ArJ3hI

    Of course news articles regarding SS and fraud are not new ... and not terribly uncommon.

    Why so?

    Partly as a result of "Sutton's Law"[1] ... as the quote says, "that's where the money is" ...

    Partly because low level individual fraud is relatively easy. Even federal employees engage in SS fraud[2] ... and only occasionally get caught.

    "SSA's internal controls did not prevent improper and fraudulent payments," the GAO said.

    When we (via our government) build a system with lax internal controls; a system that distributes billions of dollars to millions of individuals (in relatively small amounts); a system that (according to some perspectives) encourages fraud (despite claims to the contrary) combined with individuals who believe "I'm owed" (or who see -for whatever reason- no other option to maintain a lifestyle) ... the result is (no surprise) fraud.

    Depending on your viewpoint, you might find fraud an acceptable cost of big government.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    1. http://bit.ly/1ArJ19w

    2. http://fxn.ws/1ArJ19B
    Mar 15, 2015. 01:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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