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Kiisu Buraun

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  • Why 'I'll Just Sell A Few Shares When I Need Cash' Doesn't Work [View article]
    6228371,

    I'm glad we agree on personal responsibility.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Mar 17 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why 'I'll Just Sell A Few Shares When I Need Cash' Doesn't Work [View article]
    6228371,

    "US law allows people to do many foolish things."

    Perhaps I've misunderstood your subtext; but are you implying that in an "ideal US" everyone would be forced by law to invest as you deem appropriate, logical, moral or wise?

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Mar 17 03:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why 'I'll Just Sell A Few Shares When I Need Cash' Doesn't Work [View article]
    6228371,

    "Should doesn't mean must. Ought is closer to the meaning of should."

    Should may be defined as: 'must; ought (used to indicate duty, propriety, or expediency)'
    http://bit.ly/PEXVZW


    Thus it appears choosing "ought" as opposed to "must" makes no significant difference to your argument as "ought" is 'used to express obligation'.
    http://bit.ly/PEXXAQ

    As English is often ambiguous and redundant there are of course other definitions and shades of meaning for the word "should".

    But no matter the definition you prefer, I'm very glad your opinion does not have the force of law.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Mar 16 03:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why 'I'll Just Sell A Few Shares When I Need Cash' Doesn't Work [View article]
    6228371,

    "Why do you have a problem with the 'should'?"

    One of the definitions of "should" is "must; ought (used to indicate duty, propriety, or expediency)"

    Thus a reasonable interpretation of "One should never have all their money in stocks" is "One must never have all their money in stocks".

    As a retired federal civil servant, engineer, and programmer, I interpret "should", "shall" and "must" as commands.

    Based on context, Robert also interprets "should" the same way ... as a command.

    Viewed in this context, "should" assumes the speaker knows the relevant conditions, facts, and circumstances and is therefore competent to make a reasonable decision.

    Given that no one knows what is best for all individuals, Robert merely pointed out that your statement of assumed universal wisdom does not apply to him.

    Similarly, your statement does not apply to me. As a federal retiree, my pension is the equivalent of millions of dollars in bonds. Thus my investments are (with the exception of a small annuity) exclusively stocks.

    Finally, the statement, "one should never have all their money in stocks" implicitly assumes individuals are indistinguishable as it allows no exceptions. It assumes what worked for one person will work for all without modification.

    To use a very old analogy, people are stones, not bricks. Or in modern vernacular, people are individuals with unique needs, wants and circumstances; people are not identical "biological sapient units, 1 each".

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Mar 14 04:23 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lorillard's 2014 Dividend Increase [View article]
    Dave,

    I agree...your paraphrase (and my reference) is from Donald Rumsfeld (http://bit.ly/1dhXo8a) as well as an indirect reference to Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Black Swan" ... though Will Rogers and Mark Twain uttered similar sentiments (basically: "It isn't what we don't know that gives us trouble, it's what we know that ain't so.")

    My family increased from 3 individuals to 5 two years after retirement (and next year may increase to 6 -- for a total of 3 additional dependents after retirement). During pre-retirement planning, such an event was contrary to accepted wisdom, and as such one for which I did not plan.

    Fortunately, with a bit of belt tightening here and there, it is one we have been able to accommodate.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Mar 3 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lorillard's 2014 Dividend Increase [View article]
    David,

    Sorry about your cheek.

    Farm life is good.

    I hope you'll enjoy yours at least as much as I do mine.

    One caution ... I've found the unknown unknowns in retirement are very surprising.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Mar 2 02:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lorillard's 2014 Dividend Increase [View article]
    David,

    When folks tell me, "dividends are irrelevant," I ask them the following... would you buy houses; let them stand unoccupied (or let folk inhabit them rent free); and then some years later expect to sell the houses at a handsome profit to fund your retirement?

    The answer is invariably, 'no, of course not!' Yet it seems the folk who believe "dividends are irrelevant" also believe any "landlord" who neglects his rents needs to re-examine why he is in the "landlord" business.

    If such a proposition is foolish with houses, why is it wisdom with companies?

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    (David, I know your remark was tongue-in-cheek, but thought I'd add my $0.02)
    Mar 1 12:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's A Mistake To Hold Cash In This Market [View article]
    Chuck, thank you for a very interesting article.

    I appreciate your work and research.

    You stated, "First of all, no one can know whether the stock market will rise or fall over the next day, month, quarter or year - no one."

    I agree.

    However, because IMO WDC and the Federal Reserve can (and often do) perturb the market, sometimes much of the market is a bargain ... and at other times bargains are hard to find.

    Accordingly, along with the many fine authors such as yourself at SA, I've found John Hussman's "Weekly Market Comments" worth my time. If you are interested, I found his recent columns "Estimating the Risk of a Market Crash" (http://bit.ly/1cgFPAf) [1] and "The Coming Retreat in Corporate Earnings" (http://bit.ly/19Oc9KI) [2] thought provoking.

    While I am "mostly" invested, I recently sold shares in NOC, RTN, & SWY from my DGI portfolio. Due to price appreciation, the dividend yield for those companies dropped significantly below 2.75% (an arbitrary point at which I sell some shares).

    I've yet not reinvested those funds (and the DGI portfolio's accumulated dividends) which currently total about 12% of that portfolio's value because, I've not yet found the replacement companies that satisfy my purchase criteria.

    After David Fish releases his December 31 CCC spreadsheet, I may find the replacement companies I'm looking for.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    From the above referenced links:

    [1] "The problem with bubbles is that they force one to decide whether to look like an idiot before the peak, or an idiot after the peak. There’s no calling the top, and most of the signals that have been most historically useful for that purpose have been blazing red since late-2011." My impression remains that the downside risks for the market have been deferred, not eliminated, and that they will be worse for the wait.

    [2] "You wouldn't buy a lemonade stand by extrapolating the profits it earns in August"
    ...
    Any valuation measure like "price/X" is only useful to the extent that X is representative of the very long-term stream of future cash flows. As I’ll detail below, the problem at this moment is that profit margins are about 70-80% above their historical norms; there is a century of history (including the experience of the most recent decade) to demonstrate that elevated profit margins have always normalized over time; we know why they normalize over time; and we already observe pressures that are likely to force this sort of normalization over the coming 2-4 years.

    In short, the earnings measures typically used in Wall Street’s valuation work are more unrepresentative than at any time in history, and investors are vastly overpaying for stocks as a result. In this context, remember that stocks are presently 50-year duration instruments. Even if margins were to remain elevated for several years more (which is unlikely), it would not follow that present earnings are representative of the long-term stream that is actually relevant for pricing stocks.
    Dec 30 02:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Overdue' Dividend Increases: No Immediate Danger [View article]
    David,

    Succession planning, even for a free service such as the CCC spreadsheet, can be incredibly important...for everyone who depends on the wonderful work you do.

    Succession planning can also give you time for an occasional vacation...while you vet potential successors.

    I suspect a document that details your process, procedures and data sources...a document that is kept at a trusted (and known) archival site, to be released to a vetted list of individuals when certain conditions are met may help your audience sleep better at night.

    Also, would dripinvesting.org still host the CCC spreadsheet if it were maintained by someone else? If not, is there an alternate (widely known) site willing to host the spreadsheet?

    Things to think about.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Dec 22 11:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Portfolio For Do It Yourselfers: Thinking Outside The Box [View article]
    David,

    "I'll bet you two were real heartbreakers back in the day............"

    I bet they still are ...

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Aug 4 03:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Financial Crisis Over For Financial Stocks? [View article]
    Chuck,

    Thank you. I enjoyed your article.

    Regarding smaller banks, I bought NKSH a few years ago (price was 26-29) and it forms a small piece of my portfolio.

    ValueLine ranks it a "2" for Safety and B++ for financial strength. It's earnings per share and BV per share have consistently increased since 2004 and it carries no debt.

    However, with its recent share price increase, the current yield is too low for me to consider buying more. Though its most recent Div increase was a bit miserly, its 1, 3, 5, and 10 year DGR were 10.0, 9.4, 7.7, & 8.5.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Aug 4 02:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Own These World's Leading Brands And Never Fear A Recession Again [View article]
    Chuck,

    I gave your article's link to a young fellow in a non-SA forum who had questions re investing.

    Keep up the good work.


    David, Bob,

    I'm chuckling because I'm also reading a bit of historical fiction re Europe's religious wars of the 17th century ... and the parallels tickled my (admittedly weird) funny bone.

    Thank you ... you've made my day.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Jul 5 01:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Surviving And Prospering Over The Next 4 Years Of Economic Darkness [View article]
    Bret,

    You are increasingly ... just too dang optimistic ... do you really believe those numbers?

    To quote a friend ...
    "Initial published numbers from the government are waxed, buffed and polished ... after the wrinkles and sags are filled in; and after the warts and blemishes are carefully painted over ... much like a granny who with paint, wig and dentures says she is 16 ... while muttering with a harsh raspy voice, 'Are you going to believe me, or what you see with your own eyes?'"

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Jun 28 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Survey Says... These Are Dividend Growth Investors' Most Widely Held Stocks [View article]
    David,

    You've published two very interesting articles. Thank you.

    However, I must apologize for missing both when you first published them ...

    If you don't mind my $0.02 ... though I realize it is a lot of work, I believe a 3rd year follow up would be both interesting and useful.

    A method which might simplify your data collection process (if you decide to do it again) is when you make your data request:
    o ask that the lists be sent by email (to an account specifically created for the purpose)

    o provide a hard cut off date for data collection

    o ask that the sender's email consist solely of comma-separated stock symbols of companies held by the sender

    o reject any email that does not comply with the request

    o (optionally) use an auto-responder so the sender knows his email was received.

    And because the address is specific for the data collection task:

    o your normal or SA email account would not be cluttered

    o the account can be deactivated and deleted after the cutoff date to prevent it being hijacked.

    Thank you once again.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Apr 27 07:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Stocks With Growing Dividends For Succesful Retirement Investing [View article]
    My apologies to all,

    My proofreading was not as good as it should have been. The fifth paragraph should have stated:

    "For example, $1 in 1913 had the same purchasing power as $4.09 in 1971 (58 years), while $1 in 1971 had the same purchasing power as $5.73 in 2013 (42 years) ... and worse yet $1 in 1913 had the same purchasing power as $23.45 in 2013 (100 years) ..."

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Apr 16 11:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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