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Kiisu Buraun

 
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  • Dave Van Knapp Positions For 2013: Tuning Out Market 'Noise' With Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    Dave,

    Thank you for another excellent article.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Dec 30 06:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dave Van Knapp Positions For 2013: Tuning Out Market 'Noise' With Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    Ry,

    Please pardon my $0.02 worth.

    Why pick for Dividend Growth, companies with very small yields when there are a number of companies in the CCC list with a 3% or larger yield and decent dividend growth?

    If I've done the math correctly...

    To exceed an annual 3% yield it would take:

    * a company with an initial yield of 0.25%, more than:
    o 14 years with a DG rate of 20%.
    o 18 years with a DG rate of 15%.
    o 27 years with a DG rate of 10%.

    * a company with an initial yield of 0.50%, more than:
    o 10 years with a DG rate of 20%.
    o 13 years with a DG rate of 15%.
    o 19 years with a DG rate of 10%.

    * a company with an initial yield of 1.00%, more than:
    o 7 years with a DG rate of 20%.
    o 8 years with a DG rate of 15%.
    o 12 years with a DG rate of 10%.

    Seems there would have to be some reason other than expected DG to pick such a company.


    I know you didn't ask, but I believe the following general advice might be useful (at least I would have found it useful back in the stone age when I was 25)...

    * Attitude matters.
    No matter how it first appears, it is almost always an attitude problem. In my experience, even the most complex engineering problems were almost always attitude problems in disguise.

    * Live below your means.
    I couldn't save anything if I spent everything. Before I retired, as my income increased, I'd typically reward myself with 10% of the increase and save or invest the rest.

    * Avoid debt.
    When strictly limited and carefully controlled, it can be useful...BUT...freedom from debt means freedom of choice and opportunity.

    * Understand and use the "Chowder Index".
    I've found the Chowder Index to be one of the most powerful concepts of DGI.

    * Make a plan.
    Write your own investment goals, plans and rules, use them religiously, and periodically re-evaluate them against your results to determine how (or if) they should be revised.

    Regarding goals, plans and rules:

    o Goals are measurable.
    If it's not measurable, it's not a goal, it's a desire.

    o Plans are written.
    If it's not written, it's not a plan, it's a dream.

    o Rules are simple.
    If you can't state it to your grandmother in a single sentence, it is probably too complex.

    My biases:

    o I find simple, easily reviewed plans better than complex plans. The more complex the plan, the more difficult I find it to review, understand or implement.

    o Though Helmuth von Moltke stated, "no plan survives contact with the enemy" (which I generalize to "no plan survives contact with reality"), he did not mean plans are useless.

    In other words, planning forces you to think, to look at alternatives, and to consider "what-ifs". Though the original plan may not survive, its bones may provide a needed move.

    Moltke also stated "strategy is a system of expedients" in other words, when you plan, look at your options.

    As in chess, the more moves you can look ahead, the fewer unpleasant surprises you're likely to experience.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Dec 30 06:14 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retired Investors - How Do You Manage Risk? [View article]
    misscbd,

    Thank you. I appreciate the explanation.

    It's a metric I never considered. Nice to have a shiny new tool.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Dec 26 07:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retired Investors - How Do You Manage Risk? [View article]
    misscbd,

    Am curious about the following metric "Shares Outstanding(should be <2%)"

    Less than 2% of what?

    For example, from Yahoo finance, Wal*Mart (WMT) has shares outstanding of 3.35B, a number, not a percentage. The float is 1.63B shares. Are you looking at a ratio between the two, or did I miss something?

    Also, what benefit does such a metric provide?

    Not trying to be snippy, just hoping to learn something new.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Dec 26 02:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should I Convert My Dividend Growth IRA To A Roth IRA? [View article]
    Augustus,

    Thanks for the comments. I agree.

    Given the choice of between being self reliant or being totally dependent on the government, I've (as grandpa used to say) got my druthers.

    Cash and assets provide options.

    I lived overseas for years. If the US situation goes from bad to worse, it is not unthinkable to vote with my feet...that's not my preferred option as I really enjoy the farm and find Texas absolutely wonderful.

    As history repeatedly shows, things can go radically bad very fast. Thus it seems prudent to consider options, make and update contingency plans.

    To me, it's basically the same thought process as for hurricane preparation. Hope it does not happen, but things work out better when I have plans and options to choose from.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Dec 20 07:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should I Convert My Dividend Growth IRA To A Roth IRA? [View article]
    If you are interested...

    Sliced one way, my portfolios look like this:
    * 44.96% foreign
    * 28.26% large cap
    * 13.46% small cap
    * 13.32% cash

    Sliced another way:
    * 16.54% Communications (mostly foreign)
    * 15.55% Prec. Metals/Miners
    * 13.32% Cash
    * 13.06% Pharma/Medical Technology (mostly foreign)
    * 10.28% Food/Consumer Products
    * 09.18% Energy
    * 07.30% Mutual Funds/ETFs
    * 06.01% Financial/Insurance
    * 04.43% Defense contractors
    * 02.32% REITs
    * 02.00% Tech

    @Chump, "Are you buying miners or funds, or ... physical?" Yes to all 3.

    Back on topic, my in-kind transfer from IRA to (ROTH & taxable) completed today. Transferred enough to take me up to the top of my current tax bracket.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Dec 20 12:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should I Convert My Dividend Growth IRA To A Roth IRA? [View article]
    Chump,

    Though I'm a federal retiree, I can do the math.

    At some point, I expect my pension to become effectively worthless. Such has seemed rather obvious for more than a decade.

    Once I came to that point of view, I cut my expenses and lived on a third of my pay. The remainder I saved and invested. I bought a farm. I have no debt. I work to cut my fixed expenses further and to become more financially independent. As things change, I update my plans and consider new options. I try to be "long-term" realistic.

    My goal; to have sufficient non-government funds to pay my expenses for the rest of my life. As my family tends to be very long lived and because I believe we are on the cusp of radical changes in medicine that can extend life, I've not limited my financial plans to the next 35 years.

    Why would a government pension become effectively worthless?
    * inflation (the pension is "inflation adjusted" but reality and government numbers don't always match);
    * default (the government no longer has the ability to pay);
    * politics (debt of various types are repudiated because the government finds it expedient to not pay).

    I am fortunate. I appreciate the opportunities that come my way.

    And I really do believe that "no matter how things first appear, it is almost always an attitude problem." Right now is a wonderful time to be alive in the flow of history. And I hope to see more history.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Dec 19 03:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should I Convert My Dividend Growth IRA To A Roth IRA? [View article]
    AgAu,

    I believe, to cut "spending back to no more than the amount per capita it ... spend[t] in 1900" would at a minimum require the following:
    * repealing the 16th amendment;
    * repealing the 17th amendment;
    * repudiating Wickard vs Filburn.

    Repealing the 17th would prevent the Fed Gov from pushing unfunded mandates onto the states (state legislatures would tend to pick Senators who would not bankrupt the state they represent).

    Repealing the 16th would starve the Fed Gov. Constitutionally, it would have to depend on user fees...and fed taxes imposed on the various states. The various state legislatures would then have to decide how to pay those taxes.

    Repudiating Wickard vs Filburn denies the Fed Gov the "legal" ability to expand beyond its Constitutional mandate.

    At this point such changes appear very unlikely. But it is something I hope to live long enough to see.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Dec 19 03:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should I Convert My Dividend Growth IRA To A Roth IRA? [View article]
    Excellent article! Thank you for writing it.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Dec 17 01:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: How Long Will Your Portfolio Last? [View article]
    MJS,

    Why? If I can afford to retire "early" and really enjoy being retired, then why postpone my actions for 100 years?

    Will I actually live to be 200+? Who knows. But my family typically lives long...and with the increases in medical sciences and gerontology, a radically extended life span is not an unreasonable event for which to plan.

    In other words, if I plan my investments to support me for only (pick a number) 25 additional years, and live twice that, I have a problem. If I plan my investments to support me forever and only live an additional (pick a number) years, the problem vanishes.

    And what type of investment plan will support me forever? Certainly not one that requires withdrawal of principal.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Dec 13 11:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: How Long Will Your Portfolio Last? [View article]
    I think User made an important point, "Radical life extension will increase longevity risk."

    If I expected to die before age 70 (and didn't have dependents), I'd make one set of investment and planning decisions.

    If I expected to live to beyond age 200, I'd make different choices.

    Seems reasonable that my expected retirement longevity should influence my planning decisions.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Dec 13 05:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Champions Smackdown XXXIII [View article]
    David,

    Thank you. I appreciate your hard work, it makes my life simpler, and more profitable.

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Dec 7 03:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surviving And Prospering Over The Next 4 Years Of Economic Darkness [View article]
    Rich,

    I'd agree to changing the tax rates back to what they were during the Clinton years... if the regulations and laws were also rolled back to what they were during that period.

    If the tax rates during that time were fair, then certainly the laws and regs were too, no?

    And lets also roll back to the Clinton budget also.

    Kiisu
    Nov 8 05:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's Not Always About Yield [View article]
    Janet,

    Another rule of thumb (one I stole many years ago from the Motley Fool) is to invest when I have enough cash on hand that the transaction cost is less than a predetermined percentage of the total.

    I like to keep my transaction costs less than 1% of the total purchase cost. Thus if my commission cost is $7.00, I'd accumulate cash until I can buy at least $700 of shares.

    For example, if the current share price for a company I want to buy is $45, I would buy 16 shares (as 16 x $45 = $720, while 15 shares is only $675). Include a $7 commission and I'd need a minimum of $727 for the purchase.

    My advice... make your own _written_ purchase rules, use them religiously, and periodically re-evaluate those rules against your results to determine how (or if) they should be revised...

    It took me years to figure out that little bit of obviousness. One of those lessons learned the expensive way... "If it is not written, it is a dream, not a description. If it is not measurable, it is a desire, not a goal."

    Best wishes,

    Kiisu
    Oct 30 03:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2-Part Margin Of Safety For Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    Eddie,

    Learned something new today. Much appreciated. Thank you!

    Your epilogue with the Peter Lynch quote makes, I believe an essential key point... egocentrism prevents learning. When my ego kicks in, when I "know" what's going on, when I know "I get it"; I'm no longer listening or learning... and that is unfortunate.

    To counter that problem, I hung the following over my desk as a constant reminder, "No matter how it first appears, it is almost always an attitude problem." And for me, it always was.

    Regarding personal preparation, another lesson learned was (the 6 'P's), "Proper Prior Preparation Prevents Poor Performance."

    Both epigrams served me well... though I wish I had learned the lessons earlier.

    Best wishes, kind regards, and keep up the good work.

    Kiisu
    Oct 22 02:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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