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Kirk Lindstrom  

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  • SPY 8% Off Record High While WLI Rises To 6-Week High [View article]
    Good, we are in agreement. Thanks for the info.

    I believe earlier this week I saw the Fed has the chance of a recession at something like 18% which is very low given poor earnings growth and the other global factors that influence the economy.
    Sep 25, 2015. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk Assessments For NanoViricides' Influenza And Herpes Virus Programs [View article]
    Thanks for the summary of the 10K and recent developments.

    It is hard to tell if the recent decline after a big move up is due to Hilary Clinton's remarks about drug pricing or something else such as the overall market decline.
    Sep 24, 2015. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Markets: An Unconvincing Quarter Century [View article]
    I started recommending emerging markets sometimes after 2000 in my newsletter for core portfolios when it appeared US stocks were in a bubble.

    Redo your last chart but with a starting date of 2000 and use EEM and SPY graphed for "performance" and you get:

    EEM up 140%
    SPY up 77%

    and EEM has far, far more volatility than SPY which is what you would expect for the greater returns.

    FWIW, if you rebalance your portfolios once a year, then the high volatility of emerging markets gave you plenty of opportunity to sell some while high then repurchase when low for added return.

    In Edit: I just uploaded the chart to my facebook page. See
    Sep 13, 2015. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Should Pay Much More Than $28 To Buy Out Finisar [View article]
    Anyone think Finisar will hit that dotted green line on my chart after today's news?


    4:04 pm Finisar misses by $0.03, misses on revs; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus ( FNSR) :

    Reports Q1 (Jul) earnings of $0.23 per share, $0.03 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.26; revenues fell 1.9% year/year to $314 mln vs the $318.66 mln consensus. "Revenues for our first fiscal quarter were $314.0 million compared to $320.0 million in the prior quarter; however, the prior quarter had the benefit of an additional week. Taking that into consideration, the first fiscal quarter had a higher average weekly revenue relative to the prior quarter... Strength in revenue was primarily driven by 40 gigabit transceivers for datacom applications".

    Co issues downside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.20-0.26 vs. $0.28 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q2 revs of $304-324 mln vs. $327.87 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Co separately announced the departure of CEO Eitan Gertel; Executive Chairman Jerry Rawls to assume the title of Chief Executive Officer.
    Sep 11, 2015. 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Should Pay Much More Than $28 To Buy Out Finisar [View article]
    It is interesting to look back at this old Finisar article. I took profits and sold some shares at $27.50 in my "explore portfolio" a week after posting that note above saying Cisco is not buying Finisar.

    Eating my own cooking, I also sold some at $27.58 and 27.64 on 3/21/14 and 4/17/14, respectively.

    I've bought and sold Finisar since then but I have to wonder if that "rumor" was "planted" so some could get out at what turned out to be a double top near a four year high.
    Sep 10, 2015. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Dan Niles Now Long After Covering His Short Position [View article]
    At the time of the Article:

    I liked and owned GOOG at $581 rather than FB at $27.25.

    That was GOOG before the split so with the split, GOOG was $290.50
    Today GOOGL is $582.06, up 100%

    FB was $27.25 and today it is $83, up 205%

    So, FB was a better stock to own but its price is currently in free fall so it could catch Google.

    I heard on CNBC today that some smart people, such as Mark Cuban, are buying FB here.
    Aug 26, 2015. 02:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Neuberger Berman Goes Active On Decade-Old Ultratech Stake [View article]
    It is awful here and in many other companies. The incentive is to create high volatility so insiders can give themselves options and stock when the shares are down, talk up the pipeline, then they unload when up then do it again when the "talk" doesn't materialize.

    I've made good money following UTEK and selling a lot of shares when they are sellers then buying back when cheap but there are people who bought 20 years ago at double the price who probably own a smaller percentage of the company today due to dilution... if they were not wise enough to buy and sell the volatility.

    We need to change the compensation structure FOR ALL COMPANIES such that they don't get any free shares. Let them buy shares at a 15% discount perhaps so they have their skin in the game. Also, stock options should be priced at the 10-year highs so there is massive incentive for building lasting value.

    I voted no on the "incentive plan" and encourage others to do the same until this nonsense changes.
    Aug 25, 2015. 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FedEx Vs. UPS: Follow The Free Cash Flow [View article]
    According to, the hourly rate for a package handler is $8.82 to $14.99 at UPS. Drivers make $13.97 to $24.98

    Here in Taxifornia, many cities will raise the min wage to $15 per hour.

    UPS is a union shop so won't the drivers demand they get paid more than the package handlers? Is this explosion in labor costs coming down the pike modeled?

    Mountain View CA raised its min wage to $10.30 and with the costs of ACA/Obama care, the cost of a car wash in Mountain view went from $11.99 to $16.99 with the best coupon in just a few years. My guess is when the Min wage goes to $15 in 2018, , a car wash will cost over $20. I find I go longer between car washes.... but what will the soaring labor costs, not modeled well I believe by the Fed and most others, do to companies like UPS that don't have a model like FedEx?
    Aug 8, 2015. 12:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Stocks Down Over 30%. Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    KilgoreTrout, or is it Dr. Robert Fender?

    Good question.

    Do a search for bubble and I made no claim either way. I said Mike Holland believes SOME stocks are in a bubble which is why he thinks he can outperform the index funds with his more expensive fund.

    I didn't attempt to prove or disprove it.

    "If you look at FXI, it's trading at 11x forward earnings, the SPY is trading at 18x. How is it that China is trading at "bubble valuations"?"

    Do you believe those numbers? I checked the two largest holdings of FXI and one has a PE of 44 and the other has a PE of 5. I think that would average out to 24. I believe the PE of 5 is for the bank that financed building the empty cities.....
    Jul 9, 2015. 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Stocks Down Over 30%. Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    From "China halts stock plunge for now" at

    The stock market sell-off in China abated today as Beijing stepped up its barrage of measures to boost liquidity and calm investors following days of sharp declines.

    China's securities regulator banned shareholders with stakes of more than 5% in a company from selling stock over the next six months, and vowed to "punch back" against illegal market activities by investigating "malicious short selling."

    Dozens of more companies have also requested their shares be halted from trading, adding to the list of more than 1,400 that have suspended their stock.
    Jul 9, 2015. 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Stocks Down Over 30%. Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    I agree Matt with both the potential and your target of where to get interested in buying. The question then becomes "what percentage of your portfolio do you put in China?"

    Efficient Market Theory would say give it a weighting equal to the market cap of the country, but I sure don't trust what is reported and shared with shareholders there as much as I trust insiders in the US to not take too much out of the company (excessive pay, stock options, etc....). I believe China also has higher "costs" to deal with government officials plus the risk of jail time or worse if the insiders do it the wrong way...
    Jul 8, 2015. 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Stocks Down Over 30%. Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    You as some good questions. I believe the markets recovered sooner than 1954 when you account for dividends, which were fairly large back then.

    I believe the speculation in the Dow in 1929 was similar to the speculation in the Nasdaq in March 2000. If you look at how far they corrected, the declines were very similar.

    BTW, do you have answers to your questions?

    FWIW, I'd ask the first as "Has the amount of global "DEBT" RELATIVE TO GLOBAL GDP been reduced year to date ?" My belief is the global QE may never be repaid so money isn't worth what it once was and technology is replacing labor so quickly that "real inflation" doesn't accurately show in CPI calculations...

    Thanks for the comment.
    Jul 8, 2015. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel, Altera Deal Is Official; What Do We Know Now? [View article]
    The cash payback should improve when Intel is not paying margins to a fab.
    TSMC has margins just below 50%....
    My guess is advanced processes get 60 or 70% margins.
    Wouldn't that ndouble the cash for the new chips made by Intel?

    Also, buying Altera prevents having Altera design engineers take what they learned from working with Intel process engineers to get the best performance to TSMC to get lower prices in a few years. Thus, Intel locks down this market that I believe will be a cash cow for many years.
    Jun 2, 2015. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Is This Nearly Double-Digit Dividend Growth Stock A Value Trap? [View article]
    Well, besides getting 1¢ for my click to see what you thought of Intel after spending a bundle of cash and debt to buy Altera for growth, I seemed to have missed where you discussed if this is a good or bad thing.

    Many companies spend bundles on growth and get nothing for it.... just ask Hewlett-Packard how well their major acquisitions "helped" supply growth and higher dividends.....

    I own both Intel and Altera in my newsletter and personal portfolios and was hoping to find some analysis to see if I should use some or all of this Altera cash to buy more Intel or look for something better.

    If you were to ask my opinion, I'd start with what you didn't discuss... using cash and debt rather than issuing more shares to buy Altera tells me Intel thinks their shares are more valuable than the cash. That probably means more to me than most of the "rear view mirror" metrics you discussed.
    Jun 2, 2015. 01:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY Near Record High While ECRI's WLI Rises To 30-Week High [View article]
    Good NY Times article that I am sure won't satisfy Lakshman Achuthan 's critics (haters are never satisfied) but it explains well why it too so long to say “Mea culpa. We got that one wrong, and we regret it.”

    Current outlook: “It’s been about as weak as it could be without falling into recession,” Mr. Achuthan said. “We don’t see a recession on the horizon right now. But growth has been so low that there isn’t much leeway.”
    May 23, 2015. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment