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Kirk Lindstrom  

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  • Intel, Altera Deal Is Official; What Do We Know Now? [View article]
    The cash payback should improve when Intel is not paying margins to a fab.
    TSMC has margins just below 50%....
    http://bit.ly/1FqbZbx
    My guess is advanced processes get 60 or 70% margins.
    Wouldn't that ndouble the cash for the new chips made by Intel?

    Also, buying Altera prevents having Altera design engineers take what they learned from working with Intel process engineers to get the best performance to TSMC to get lower prices in a few years. Thus, Intel locks down this market that I believe will be a cash cow for many years.
    Jun 2, 2015. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Is This Nearly Double-Digit Dividend Growth Stock A Value Trap? [View article]
    Well, besides getting 1¢ for my click to see what you thought of Intel after spending a bundle of cash and debt to buy Altera for growth, I seemed to have missed where you discussed if this is a good or bad thing.

    Many companies spend bundles on growth and get nothing for it.... just ask Hewlett-Packard how well their major acquisitions "helped" supply growth and higher dividends.....

    I own both Intel and Altera in my newsletter and personal portfolios and was hoping to find some analysis to see if I should use some or all of this Altera cash to buy more Intel or look for something better.

    If you were to ask my opinion, I'd start with what you didn't discuss... using cash and debt rather than issuing more shares to buy Altera tells me Intel thinks their shares are more valuable than the cash. That probably means more to me than most of the "rear view mirror" metrics you discussed.
    Jun 2, 2015. 01:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY Near Record High While ECRI's WLI Rises To 30-Week High [View article]
    Good NY Times article that I am sure won't satisfy Lakshman Achuthan 's critics (haters are never satisfied) but it explains well why it too so long to say “Mea culpa. We got that one wrong, and we regret it.”

    http://nyti.ms/1JKsa9K

    Current outlook: “It’s been about as weak as it could be without falling into recession,” Mr. Achuthan said. “We don’t see a recession on the horizon right now. But growth has been so low that there isn’t much leeway.”
    May 23, 2015. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VTI Is Still A Buy In 2015 [View article]
    I like VTI, but once you have enough funds, I recommend breaking it into the large and mid/small cap components so you can occasionally rebalance to take advantage of periods of relative out performance by the either sector. I recommend doing the same for the international markets... start with the global index then break it into sub sectors when you have enough for it to make sense. I've done it with the "core portfolios" in my newsletter and it has helped significantly add to returns.
    May 13, 2015. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Years In The Chevron DRIP [View article]
    Finally, if you figure you have enough of the stock, then you can save the dividends in the account until you have enough to buy a new stock for your portfolio but I usually look for declines in some of my other stocks to buy back shares on corrections. With a well diversified portfolio, I find there are often some stocks making new highs to take some profits in to generate funds to buy shares that fall to support levels once the market declines.
    May 13, 2015. 11:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Years In The Chevron DRIP [View article]
    Nice article!

    I used to do DRIP with one of my first stocks but even with great records, handling splits can be a nightmare with the fractional shares. Now the brokers I use do it for you. I either reinvest dividends for free or save them up until I have enough to buy more shares on my "buy if it falls to this support level list" in my newsletter.

    When you have just a few shares and are just getting started, DRIPS make a lot of sense. But once you have 10 or 20 shares for a diversified portfolio, you may only want to reinvest dividends in stocks that are at my "accumulation prices" and turn it off when they reach my "take profits" prices.
    May 13, 2015. 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY Near Record High While ECRI's WLI Rises To 30-Week High [View article]
    jyard01: Have you read their book?

    "Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit From Turning Points in the Economy"
    http://amzn.to/1PsrncO

    The indicators are discussed there plus I have an article somewhere on my hard drive with the specifics of how WLI is calculated. I believe Doug Short dug it up from before ECRI made it a state secret.
    May 7, 2015. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY Near Record High While ECRI's WLI Rises To 30-Week High [View article]
    Q1 GDP may turn negative at the next revision due to the just reported March trade deficit.

    http://read.bi/1cidVwf

    >>>It turns out the US economy may have contracted in the first quarter.

    Last week, we learned that gross domestic product grew by just 0.2% in the first quarter, far below the 1% economists had expected.

    Then on Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that the trade deficit in March exploded to a six-year high, $51.4 billion.

    ... The slowdown and strike over a labor dispute limited the flow of goods through some of America's biggest ports. And that could have put more downward pressure on growth in the first quarter, according to economists.

    In a note after the release, BNP Paribas economist Laura Rosner wrote: "We calculate that today's report, if taken at face value without considering any offset from inventories, implies a 0.6pp downward revision to first-quarter growth, leaving our tracking estimate at -0.4% q/q saar (BEA's initial estimate was +0.2% q/q saar)."

    To explain why imports surged and exports were soft, Rosner suggests that the goods on inbound ships were unloaded before they were restocked with goods meant for exports. <<<
    May 5, 2015. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY Near Record High While ECRI's WLI Rises To 30-Week High [View article]
    Sanibel, that is the way I see it also. To ignore their WLI completely would be throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
    May 4, 2015. 06:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play Expected Inflation From The TIPS Spread [View article]
    SPY Values
    Closed Feb 11, 2011 at $133.11
    Opened Feb 14, 2011 at $133.03
    http://yhoo.it/1F1PSOu
    Today (5/4/15) SPY is 211.42
    May 4, 2015. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2% Inflation Is Alive And Well [View article]
    I agree that we're running 2%, easily, with the way they measure inflation.

    People are using their savings from lower gasoline to buy bigger smartphones with bigger data plans. I also noticed my satellite TV bill has doubled in the last 10 years mostly because of the high prices for sports that used to be free over local TV. Also networks I don't care about like Fox News raised rates and Dish eventually caved and raised the cost of all plans about $5. None of these high priced items existed when they first started calculating inflation so I'm not sure how they account for it.

    The average home in SF just went over $1M. We're somewhere between $2M and $3M for an older home on 1/4 acre in Los Altos, CA where in 2000 it was only $1M. Try and tell anyone hired by Google, Tesla, Faceplant, Apple etc. that want to buy a home here that inflation is only 2% and they'll die laughing.

    Property taxes here are locked in at just over 1.1% of purchase value plus 2% a year max inflation. They keep adding fees so my taxes have about 20% adders... anyway, figure out how much you have to earn to buy the average $1M home in SF, pay the property taxes, get told to let your lawn die while they add surcharges to water to pay salaries and pensions... tons of inflation in CA.

    So, if the Fed is hoping for prosperity to spread out of Silicon Valley, beware of MASSIVE inflation to come. For example, see " Los Altos Home Prices Grew 13% in 2014 & up 282% since 1998" at http://bit.ly/1GYkK2v
    Apr 18, 2015. 12:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Debt At 104% Of GDP Hits Another Record. Stocks, Gold Should Do Well On Slow Rate Hikes [View article]
    dear james, you wrote:

    "I look for Gold to reach $1500 per oz by Dec 2015"

    There are some remaining gold bulls that agree with you. RONALD L. ROSEN in his April 15, 2015 letter at http://bit.ly/1DLJIzB
    says the decline in gold was "a running flat correction" in a longer term bull market.

    "Gold and silver have completed a magnificently bullish running flat correction. For gold the failure of the C wave to decline below the beginning of the A wave is absolutely, monumentally bullish."
    Apr 16, 2015. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Altera Investors Should Be Cautious With Intel's Offer Reportedly Off The Table [View article]
    What is lacking from all the excellent discussion so far is an analysis of profits Intel could make by selling the Altera chips. I believe Altera has huge margins for chips made by chip fabs. Eliminate some redundant staff such as HR and the savings grow even more.
    Apr 15, 2015. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Debt At 104% Of GDP Hits Another Record. Stocks, Gold Should Do Well On Slow Rate Hikes [View article]
    Dear mkemac,
    How do you arrive at 300%? That works for buying a home but I think we would be a disaster, especially since the real debt is more like $210T when you account for off the books debt such as Social Security and Medicare.
    Apr 14, 2015. 07:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Debt At 104% Of GDP Hits Another Record. Stocks, Gold Should Do Well On Slow Rate Hikes [View article]
    Dear bbro, while that would be another interesting statistic, the Fed and most economists I follow track "Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product", especially those who like to say how great President Clinton was and how awful the next two were/are.

    See The Fed's chart at http://bit.ly/1yywu2F
    Apr 14, 2015. 07:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
664 Comments
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