Take Profits Or Sell BND And Buy Series I Bonds [View article]
"S&P 500 And SPY At New Highs While ECRI's WLI Moves Higher Again" http://bit.ly/12bgqEY
CBO slashes deficit estimate. The federal deficit will narrow to $642B in the fiscal year ending in September, the CBO said Tuesday — a meaningful improvement from February's projection of $845B. The revision comes courtesy of higher tax receipts and dividend payments to the Treasury from Fannie (FNMA.OB) and Freddie (FMCC.OB). The government can now skirt the federal borrowing limit until October or November. The CBO sees a deficit of 3.4% in FY14 and 2.1% in FY15, before the figure begins to rise anew on increased spending.
S&P 500 And SPY At New Highs While ECRI's WLI Moves Higher Again [View article]
From SA's Top Stories: French economy slips into recession. France slid into recession during Q1 as the French economy contracted 0.2% Q/Q after shrinking by the same amount in Q4. With unemployment at record levels and President François Hollande's popularity at all-time lows, the country faces an uphill battle to right the ship as it struggles to bring its deficit in line with the EU-mandated 3%, while simultaneously restoring growth. Economists project a 0.2% contraction for the full year and a survey of French citizens shows just 11% believe Hollande can bring down the jobless rate by year's end.
S&P 500 And SPY At New Highs While ECRI's WLI Moves Higher Again [View article]
From SA's Top Stories: French economy slips into recession. http://on.wsj.com/YJlDow France slid into recession during Q1 as the French economy contracted 0.2% Q/Q after shrinking by the same amount in Q4. With unemployment at record levels and President François Hollande's popularity at all-time lows, the country faces an uphill battle to right the ship as it struggles to bring its deficit in line with the EU-mandated 3%, while simultaneously restoring growth. Economists project a 0.2% contraction for the full year and a survey of French citizens shows just 11% believe Hollande can bring down the jobless rate by year's end.
S&P 500 And SPY At New Highs While ECRI's WLI Moves Higher Again [View article]
Yes, thanks but my spreadsheet has weekly closing prices so it is a ton of work to edit out 80% of the data. I haven't considered it worth the effort to link to other sheets since I have the S&P500 data in my ECRI spreadsheet which SPY is supposed to follow.
S&P 500 And SPY At New Highs While ECRI's WLI Moves Higher Again [View article]
I wrote that article Saturday and it was only posted today. Since then, I found some more good info that I posted on my blog this morning in an articled titled
The "Equity Premium" graph from the Federal Reserve is most interesting where they said: "We surveyed banks, we combed the academic literature, we asked economists at central banks. It turns out that most of their models predict that we will enjoy historically high excess returns for the S&P 500 for the next five years." -Federal Reserve Bank of New York Are Stocks Cheap? A Review of the Evidence", May 8, 2013
Facebook's Phantom Revenue Could Be A Windfall [View article]
A very interesting idea, but not a good one. If FB started to charge athletes and celebs a fee to do what it allows others to do for free, then the athletes and celebs would move to a site that valued them and their followers would... uh... follow. That would be the LAST thing facebook needs.
What FB needs to do is share revenue with its members so those that have a large following and generate large page views can share in the revenue FB gets from that traffic. Then FB can find ways to act as an "agent" for the athletes and celebs to help them make more money so they stay and interact with their fans here rather than on Twitter, etc...
It might make sense for FB to buy Seeking Alpha for the tools here to pay "content creators" who have built a following and generate significant revenue... or just replicate the idea of paying per page view.
SPY And S&P 500 Set Record Highs, ECRI Explains Recession Call [View article]
Thanks Freddy. That makes sense. Even if R&D spending were to fall by 10% in a quarter, at only a 3% addition to GDP, it would only cut the rate by 0.3% so probably little impact on quarterly GDP rates since 10% changes are rare.
SPY And S&P 500 Set Record Highs, ECRI Explains Recession Call [View article]
I agree it is hard to see a revision large enough to turn the numbers down enough to show a recession, especially with the changes to the GDP calculation for things like R&D that will add about 3%.
I found another interesting correlation today "Weekly Jobless Claims versus the S&P500 Price Graph." I posted the chart at: http://bit.ly/YqKUnd
I believe Lakshman said the unemployment rate would soar during the recession ECRI predicted, but that chart shows a steady decline in weekly jobless claims that looks similar to past recoveries... i.e. they usually soar into recessions, not fall.
S&P 500 Breaks Above 1600, SPY At Another Record High And ECRI's WLI Moving Higher [View article]
Thanks for the compliment Kevin and thanks for sharing your chart.
"Look at a chart of this year's 'mid-Regime change cycle year' as well"
Very interesting. How do you interpret this chart and what do you think it projects for the future? (Don't worry, no points deducted is you are wrong.)
Take Profits Or Sell BND And Buy Series I Bonds [View article]
Thanks for your feedback, but I respectfully disagree mgordon. My portfolio and the portfolio value of many people I help are well above your limits.
How long do you expect to live? A married couple starting today can have $40,000 in I bonds in the next 13 months which would be 8% of your $500,000 portfolio. In another 4 years (5 yrs + 1 month) they could have $120,000 or 24% of their fixed income portfolio into i Bonds.
I've been recommending accumulating i Bonds to those I help (see either of my investment letters http://bit.ly/10c1Kmx ) for years.
If you want "fast money" advice suitable for moving around large sums quickly, I recommend TV shows for options where I hear you can make or lose it all quickly. If you want to "get rich slowly and keep it" then following my advice and adding i Bonds to your portfolio is a great place to get started. My newsletter covers what I recommend for my readers who have extra funds from selling the total bond market index fund I used to have in the portfolio. Keep watching and maybe I'll write a free article here someday to answer your request.
S&P 500 Breaks Above 1600, SPY At Another Record High And ECRI's WLI Moving Higher [View article]
Thanks bbro! I value ECRI's reports which is why I report here on WLI but I look at the whole package. I think they were correct that the business cycle was bearish and it would not have been a good time to invest in a new business or grow your own business.. (why I think people pay big dollars for their repots) but with their FIG showing low inflation pressure, I thought it COULD be good for stocks which many missed.
Take Profits Or Sell BND And Buy Series I Bonds [View article]
riotango07, CDs are a great place for cash but you can do better than Ally Bank for 5 yrs. For example, Melrose CU was 1.96% http://bit.ly/106l2dN
If I put "5 YRs" into the CD rate box at http://bit.ly/iFTscx it shows Ally at 1.54% and Discover at 1.55%
I think inflation will be higher than 1.55% averaged over the next 5 yrs, so I'd still recommend buying iBonds in 6 months if you are not already fully invested in them.
Take Profits Or Sell BND And Buy Series I Bonds [View article]
Thanks for your kind words Gratian. I'm working on an article just about I Bonds and I think your reasons to own them are exceptional.
After holding a year, they are 100% liquid so a great place to store emergency cash. Of course, I'd not buy them now with rates lower than you can get at one of the banks listed on the "Savings Account Survey" page I listed (URL http://bit.ly/10uOXeA ) but if you want to keep it simple, I'd not change your monthly investment plan.
I advised my readers to load up with the full $10K at the start of the year so we get 1.78% for six months then 1.18% for the second half of our 1 year holding period. We should get about 1.5% overall, tax deferred which beats the pants off the best FDIC insured savings accounts as well as short term treasuries.
With Market At Record Highs, The Dow/Gold Ratio Is Still Low On An Historical Basis [View article]
with everything from self driving cars replacing truckers, mail carriers, bus drivers, etc... and automated checkouts at major chains.... the only jobs for many will be offering to stand in the unemployment lines for others too fat to stand.... so yes, it seems QE forever to prevent job collapse by massive government cuts will continue for a long time.
Take Profits Or Sell BND And Buy Series I Bonds [View article]
CBO slashes deficit estimate.
The federal deficit will narrow to $642B in the fiscal year ending in September, the CBO said Tuesday — a meaningful improvement from February's projection of $845B. The revision comes courtesy of higher tax receipts and dividend payments to the Treasury from Fannie (FNMA.OB) and Freddie (FMCC.OB). The government can now skirt the federal borrowing limit until October or November. The CBO sees a deficit of 3.4% in FY14 and 2.1% in FY15, before the figure begins to rise anew on increased spending.
S&P 500 And SPY At New Highs While ECRI's WLI Moves Higher Again [View article]
French economy slips into recession.
France slid into recession during Q1 as the French economy contracted 0.2% Q/Q after shrinking by the same amount in Q4. With unemployment at record levels and President François Hollande's popularity at all-time lows, the country faces an uphill battle to right the ship as it struggles to bring its deficit in line with the EU-mandated 3%, while simultaneously restoring growth. Economists project a 0.2% contraction for the full year and a survey of French citizens shows just 11% believe Hollande can bring down the jobless rate by year's end.
S&P 500 And SPY At New Highs While ECRI's WLI Moves Higher Again [View article]
French economy slips into recession. http://on.wsj.com/YJlDow
France slid into recession during Q1 as the French economy contracted 0.2% Q/Q after shrinking by the same amount in Q4. With unemployment at record levels and President François Hollande's popularity at all-time lows, the country faces an uphill battle to right the ship as it struggles to bring its deficit in line with the EU-mandated 3%, while simultaneously restoring growth. Economists project a 0.2% contraction for the full year and a survey of French citizens shows just 11% believe Hollande can bring down the jobless rate by year's end.
S&P 500 And SPY At New Highs While ECRI's WLI Moves Higher Again [View article]
S&P 500 And SPY At New Highs While ECRI's WLI Moves Higher Again [View article]
"Markets at Record Highs, Will They Continue Higher? "
http://bit.ly/12uqqtq
The "Equity Premium" graph from the Federal Reserve is most interesting where they said: "We surveyed banks, we combed the academic literature, we asked economists at central banks. It turns out that most of their models predict that we will enjoy historically high excess returns for the S&P 500 for the next five years."
-Federal Reserve Bank of New York Are Stocks Cheap? A Review of the Evidence", May 8, 2013
Facebook's Phantom Revenue Could Be A Windfall [View article]
What FB needs to do is share revenue with its members so those that have a large following and generate large page views can share in the revenue FB gets from that traffic. Then FB can find ways to act as an "agent" for the athletes and celebs to help them make more money so they stay and interact with their fans here rather than on Twitter, etc...
It might make sense for FB to buy Seeking Alpha for the tools here to pay "content creators" who have built a following and generate significant revenue... or just replicate the idea of paying per page view.
SPY And S&P 500 Set Record Highs, ECRI Explains Recession Call [View article]
SPY And S&P 500 Set Record Highs, ECRI Explains Recession Call [View article]
I found another interesting correlation today "Weekly Jobless Claims versus the S&P500 Price Graph." I posted the chart at:
http://bit.ly/YqKUnd
I believe Lakshman said the unemployment rate would soar during the recession ECRI predicted, but that chart shows a steady decline in weekly jobless claims that looks similar to past recoveries... i.e. they usually soar into recessions, not fall.
S&P 500 Breaks Above 1600, SPY At Another Record High And ECRI's WLI Moving Higher [View article]
"Look at a chart of this year's 'mid-Regime change cycle year' as well"
Very interesting. How do you interpret this chart and what do you think it projects for the future? (Don't worry, no points deducted is you are wrong.)
Take Profits Or Sell BND And Buy Series I Bonds [View article]
How long do you expect to live? A married couple starting today can have $40,000 in I bonds in the next 13 months which would be 8% of your $500,000 portfolio. In another 4 years (5 yrs + 1 month) they could have $120,000 or 24% of their fixed income portfolio into i Bonds.
I've been recommending accumulating i Bonds to those I help (see either of my investment letters http://bit.ly/10c1Kmx ) for years.
If you want "fast money" advice suitable for moving around large sums quickly, I recommend TV shows for options where I hear you can make or lose it all quickly. If you want to "get rich slowly and keep it" then following my advice and adding i Bonds to your portfolio is a great place to get started. My newsletter covers what I recommend for my readers who have extra funds from selling the total bond market index fund I used to have in the portfolio. Keep watching and maybe I'll write a free article here someday to answer your request.
S&P 500 Breaks Above 1600, SPY At Another Record High And ECRI's WLI Moving Higher [View article]
Take Profits Or Sell BND And Buy Series I Bonds [View article]
If I put "5 YRs" into the CD rate box at http://bit.ly/iFTscx
it shows Ally at 1.54% and Discover at 1.55%
I think inflation will be higher than 1.55% averaged over the next 5 yrs, so I'd still recommend buying iBonds in 6 months if you are not already fully invested in them.
Take Profits Or Sell BND And Buy Series I Bonds [View article]
After holding a year, they are 100% liquid so a great place to store emergency cash. Of course, I'd not buy them now with rates lower than you can get at one of the banks listed on the "Savings Account Survey" page I listed (URL http://bit.ly/10uOXeA )
but if you want to keep it simple, I'd not change your monthly investment plan.
I advised my readers to load up with the full $10K at the start of the year so we get 1.78% for six months then 1.18% for the second half of our 1 year holding period. We should get about 1.5% overall, tax deferred which beats the pants off the best FDIC insured savings accounts as well as short term treasuries.
With Market At Record Highs, The Dow/Gold Ratio Is Still Low On An Historical Basis [View article]
With Market At Record Highs, The Dow/Gold Ratio Is Still Low On An Historical Basis [View article]