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Kirk Lindstrom  

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  • Chinese Stocks Down Over 30%. Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    KilgoreTrout, or is it Dr. Robert Fender?

    Good question.

    Do a search for bubble and I made no claim either way. I said Mike Holland believes SOME stocks are in a bubble which is why he thinks he can outperform the index funds with his more expensive fund.

    I didn't attempt to prove or disprove it.

    "If you look at FXI, it's trading at 11x forward earnings, the SPY is trading at 18x. How is it that China is trading at "bubble valuations"?"

    Do you believe those numbers? I checked the two largest holdings of FXI and one has a PE of 44 and the other has a PE of 5. I think that would average out to 24. I believe the PE of 5 is for the bank that financed building the empty cities.....
    Jul 9, 2015. 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Stocks Down Over 30%. Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    From "China halts stock plunge for now" at

    The stock market sell-off in China abated today as Beijing stepped up its barrage of measures to boost liquidity and calm investors following days of sharp declines.

    China's securities regulator banned shareholders with stakes of more than 5% in a company from selling stock over the next six months, and vowed to "punch back" against illegal market activities by investigating "malicious short selling."

    Dozens of more companies have also requested their shares be halted from trading, adding to the list of more than 1,400 that have suspended their stock.
    Jul 9, 2015. 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Stocks Down Over 30%. Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    I agree Matt with both the potential and your target of where to get interested in buying. The question then becomes "what percentage of your portfolio do you put in China?"

    Efficient Market Theory would say give it a weighting equal to the market cap of the country, but I sure don't trust what is reported and shared with shareholders there as much as I trust insiders in the US to not take too much out of the company (excessive pay, stock options, etc....). I believe China also has higher "costs" to deal with government officials plus the risk of jail time or worse if the insiders do it the wrong way...
    Jul 8, 2015. 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Stocks Down Over 30%. Is It Time To Buy? [View article]
    You as some good questions. I believe the markets recovered sooner than 1954 when you account for dividends, which were fairly large back then.

    I believe the speculation in the Dow in 1929 was similar to the speculation in the Nasdaq in March 2000. If you look at how far they corrected, the declines were very similar.

    BTW, do you have answers to your questions?

    FWIW, I'd ask the first as "Has the amount of global "DEBT" RELATIVE TO GLOBAL GDP been reduced year to date ?" My belief is the global QE may never be repaid so money isn't worth what it once was and technology is replacing labor so quickly that "real inflation" doesn't accurately show in CPI calculations...

    Thanks for the comment.
    Jul 8, 2015. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel, Altera Deal Is Official; What Do We Know Now? [View article]
    The cash payback should improve when Intel is not paying margins to a fab.
    TSMC has margins just below 50%....
    My guess is advanced processes get 60 or 70% margins.
    Wouldn't that ndouble the cash for the new chips made by Intel?

    Also, buying Altera prevents having Altera design engineers take what they learned from working with Intel process engineers to get the best performance to TSMC to get lower prices in a few years. Thus, Intel locks down this market that I believe will be a cash cow for many years.
    Jun 2, 2015. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Is This Nearly Double-Digit Dividend Growth Stock A Value Trap? [View article]
    Well, besides getting 1¢ for my click to see what you thought of Intel after spending a bundle of cash and debt to buy Altera for growth, I seemed to have missed where you discussed if this is a good or bad thing.

    Many companies spend bundles on growth and get nothing for it.... just ask Hewlett-Packard how well their major acquisitions "helped" supply growth and higher dividends.....

    I own both Intel and Altera in my newsletter and personal portfolios and was hoping to find some analysis to see if I should use some or all of this Altera cash to buy more Intel or look for something better.

    If you were to ask my opinion, I'd start with what you didn't discuss... using cash and debt rather than issuing more shares to buy Altera tells me Intel thinks their shares are more valuable than the cash. That probably means more to me than most of the "rear view mirror" metrics you discussed.
    Jun 2, 2015. 01:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY Near Record High While ECRI's WLI Rises To 30-Week High [View article]
    Good NY Times article that I am sure won't satisfy Lakshman Achuthan 's critics (haters are never satisfied) but it explains well why it too so long to say “Mea culpa. We got that one wrong, and we regret it.”

    Current outlook: “It’s been about as weak as it could be without falling into recession,” Mr. Achuthan said. “We don’t see a recession on the horizon right now. But growth has been so low that there isn’t much leeway.”
    May 23, 2015. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VTI Is Still A Buy In 2015 [View article]
    I like VTI, but once you have enough funds, I recommend breaking it into the large and mid/small cap components so you can occasionally rebalance to take advantage of periods of relative out performance by the either sector. I recommend doing the same for the international markets... start with the global index then break it into sub sectors when you have enough for it to make sense. I've done it with the "core portfolios" in my newsletter and it has helped significantly add to returns.
    May 13, 2015. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Years In The Chevron DRIP [View article]
    Finally, if you figure you have enough of the stock, then you can save the dividends in the account until you have enough to buy a new stock for your portfolio but I usually look for declines in some of my other stocks to buy back shares on corrections. With a well diversified portfolio, I find there are often some stocks making new highs to take some profits in to generate funds to buy shares that fall to support levels once the market declines.
    May 13, 2015. 11:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Years In The Chevron DRIP [View article]
    Nice article!

    I used to do DRIP with one of my first stocks but even with great records, handling splits can be a nightmare with the fractional shares. Now the brokers I use do it for you. I either reinvest dividends for free or save them up until I have enough to buy more shares on my "buy if it falls to this support level list" in my newsletter.

    When you have just a few shares and are just getting started, DRIPS make a lot of sense. But once you have 10 or 20 shares for a diversified portfolio, you may only want to reinvest dividends in stocks that are at my "accumulation prices" and turn it off when they reach my "take profits" prices.
    May 13, 2015. 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY Near Record High While ECRI's WLI Rises To 30-Week High [View article]
    jyard01: Have you read their book?

    "Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit From Turning Points in the Economy"

    The indicators are discussed there plus I have an article somewhere on my hard drive with the specifics of how WLI is calculated. I believe Doug Short dug it up from before ECRI made it a state secret.
    May 7, 2015. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY Near Record High While ECRI's WLI Rises To 30-Week High [View article]
    Q1 GDP may turn negative at the next revision due to the just reported March trade deficit.

    >>>It turns out the US economy may have contracted in the first quarter.

    Last week, we learned that gross domestic product grew by just 0.2% in the first quarter, far below the 1% economists had expected.

    Then on Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that the trade deficit in March exploded to a six-year high, $51.4 billion.

    ... The slowdown and strike over a labor dispute limited the flow of goods through some of America's biggest ports. And that could have put more downward pressure on growth in the first quarter, according to economists.

    In a note after the release, BNP Paribas economist Laura Rosner wrote: "We calculate that today's report, if taken at face value without considering any offset from inventories, implies a 0.6pp downward revision to first-quarter growth, leaving our tracking estimate at -0.4% q/q saar (BEA's initial estimate was +0.2% q/q saar)."

    To explain why imports surged and exports were soft, Rosner suggests that the goods on inbound ships were unloaded before they were restocked with goods meant for exports. <<<
    May 5, 2015. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY Near Record High While ECRI's WLI Rises To 30-Week High [View article]
    Sanibel, that is the way I see it also. To ignore their WLI completely would be throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
    May 4, 2015. 06:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play Expected Inflation From The TIPS Spread [View article]
    SPY Values
    Closed Feb 11, 2011 at $133.11
    Opened Feb 14, 2011 at $133.03
    Today (5/4/15) SPY is 211.42
    May 4, 2015. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2% Inflation Is Alive And Well [View article]
    I agree that we're running 2%, easily, with the way they measure inflation.

    People are using their savings from lower gasoline to buy bigger smartphones with bigger data plans. I also noticed my satellite TV bill has doubled in the last 10 years mostly because of the high prices for sports that used to be free over local TV. Also networks I don't care about like Fox News raised rates and Dish eventually caved and raised the cost of all plans about $5. None of these high priced items existed when they first started calculating inflation so I'm not sure how they account for it.

    The average home in SF just went over $1M. We're somewhere between $2M and $3M for an older home on 1/4 acre in Los Altos, CA where in 2000 it was only $1M. Try and tell anyone hired by Google, Tesla, Faceplant, Apple etc. that want to buy a home here that inflation is only 2% and they'll die laughing.

    Property taxes here are locked in at just over 1.1% of purchase value plus 2% a year max inflation. They keep adding fees so my taxes have about 20% adders... anyway, figure out how much you have to earn to buy the average $1M home in SF, pay the property taxes, get told to let your lawn die while they add surcharges to water to pay salaries and pensions... tons of inflation in CA.

    So, if the Fed is hoping for prosperity to spread out of Silicon Valley, beware of MASSIVE inflation to come. For example, see " Los Altos Home Prices Grew 13% in 2014 & up 282% since 1998" at
    Apr 18, 2015. 12:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment