Amazon's Margin Myth: Sleight Of Hand [View article]
So, how do you define "3P/AWS?"
I'm an engineer not an accountant and a search for that term yields no answer...
I can't see how SA gets all over my case for not defining basic terms in articles I submit yet they gave you a Must Read status for an article about something undefined. Maybe I have sour grapes for breakfast, but please define these terms in a correction to the article, here in a comment and in future articles.
Dan Niles Top 4 Stock Picks For 2013: Facebook Heads The List [View article]
Thanks for the compliment JohnnyM.
All my choices and FB are up since the article so we all look smart. I added to FNSR at $12.50 and took profits at $16.25 but still have a decent long position where I'd love another surge to take profits once more to get back on house money for the remaining shares.
With AMAT now at $13.25, that is a very nice gain out of nowhere with very few others recommending it late last year. I'm hopeful for another up cycle for semi's as many besides Samsung go after Apple's once fat margins.
The deficit will fall to below $1T in 2013 for the first time since 2008, the CBO forecasts. Assuming that automatic cuts take effect in March, the deficit will drop to $845B in this year and then $616B in 2014. However, debt will continue to accumulate, taking the overall burden to $20T by 2023 and annual interest payments to above $850B. The CBO also predicts that GDP growth will slow to 1.4% in 2013 before accelerating to 3.4% next year.
Apple: New Analysis Offers Reasons For A Rally [View article]
Lots of bulls....
You inspired me to rework my chart:
Feb 5: "AAPL: Apple Price Gap Still Open: Resistance And Support Graphs" at http://bit.ly/11QY0bo
Key features:
#1 The thin, dashed-green horizontal line shows an open gap at $425.00. One form of TA (technical analysis) says the downtrend won't reverse until this gap is completely filled and it can go lower before it turns. Of course, TA is only "odds" and not a guarantee.
Laszlo Birinyi Expects The S&P500 To Reach 1600 Before The Year Ends [View article]
Ron Baron, the mutual fund guy, was just on CNBC to say he expects 7% a year which would mean the DOW will double to 28,000 in ten years. Interesting he wasn't counting dividends that add significantly to this return.
Cramer also said he is not telling people to sell on the bad news from Europe.
Even a permabull should be worried a bit when they bring out targets of a market doubling again on TV when the markets are at all-time highs.
Laszlo Birinyi Expects The S&P500 To Reach 1600 Before The Year Ends [View article]
What did he predict at the end of 2008?
I believe he is a permabull who was blindsided by the 2008 market crash. Given the market is at an all time high, with dividends reinvested, I can forgive that I think.
But if he went bearish at the bottom in either 2002/3 or 2008/2009, then he might be a contrary indicator.
SPY And ECRI's WLI Surge To Multi-Year Highs [View article]
Q4 was negative 0.1%
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has issued the following news release today:
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.
Apple's Valuation Is Good, But Are The Assumptions Correct? [View article]
Update to article:
I wrote in this April 2012 article "Since Apple is the largest holding in several index funds such as SPY and VTI, I would give serious consideration to selling or taking large profits in these funds if I thought Apple was significantly overvalued. I have not done so."
That changed in September as Apple headed towards $700.
I took some SIGNIFICANT profits on 9/14/12 in my funds that had Apple as a top holding. I used some of the money right away to buy a new, 2013 windsurfing board then when the market corrected late last user, I used some more of the funds to buy shares of FNSR at $12.50, Intel at $20.25, some shares of HPQ at $14.40 and another name mentioned in my newsletter but not yet here.
I have already taken profits in the $12.50 FNSR shares by selling at $16.25 last month. I wrote about the FNSR buy and sell in my newsletter.
On page 11 of my 10/20/2012 newsletter after Apple had corrected and my subscribers started to ask me via email if we should buy, I wrote: "If you believe Apple can continue to grow earnings at 20% a year or more for the next five years, then it probably has much more room to grow as the “target” with a PE of 20 projects. But if competition from MSFT, Amazon, Google, Nokia, HTC, Samsung, HP and perhaps some new names we haven’t yet heard of has a hit products and Apple’s growth rate drops to 10%, then the 2012 target for Apple drops to $476 and the 2014 target is only $642! ... I think the market is telling us Apple growth will drop soon... I do not own Apple."
I still don't own Apple. It is still just a bit above the open gap that probably needs to fill. Also, these stocks often correct well past where fundamentals say it is a good price as individual investors who bought with all the Apple hype here and on CNBC over the last year give up on it and sell for a loss. When I see Cramer and/or Brinker "give up" on Apple... that might be the bell ringing.
Apple's Valuation Is Good, But Are The Assumptions Correct? [View article]
Update:
I wrote in this April 2012 article "Since Apple is the largest holding in several index funds such as SPY and VTI, I would give serious consideration to selling or taking large profits in these funds if I thought Apple was significantly overvalued. I have not done so."
That changed in September as Apple headed towards $700.
I took some SIGNIFICANT profits on 9/14/12 in my funds that had Apple as a top holding. I used some of the money right away to buy a new, 2013 windsurfing board then when the market corrected late last user, I used some more of the funds to buy shares of FNSR at $12.50, Intel at $20.25, some shares of HPQ at $14.40 and another name mentioned in my newsletter but not yet here.
I have already taken profits in the $12.50 FNSR shares by selling at $16.25 last month. I wrote about the FNSR buy and sell in my newsletter.
On page 11 of my 10/20/2012 newsletter after Apple had corrected and my subscribers started to ask me via email if we should buy, I wrote: "If you believe Apple can continue to grow earnings at 20% a year or more for the next five years, then it probably has much more room to grow as the “target” with a PE of 20 projects. But if competition from MSFT, Amazon, Google, Nokia, HTC, Samsung, HP and perhaps some new names we haven’t yet heard of has a hit products and Apple’s growth rate drops to 10%, then the 2012 target for Apple drops to $476 and the 2014 target is only $642! ... I think the market is telling us Apple growth will drop soon... I do not own Apple."
I still don't own Apple. It is still just a bit above the open gap that probably needs to fill. Also, these stocks often correct well past where fundamentals say it is a good price as individual investors who bought with all the Apple hype here and on CNBC over the last year give up on it and sell for a loss. When I see Cramer and/or Brinker "give up" on Apple... that might be the bell ringing.
Toni Sacconaghi Expects Dow Dog Hewlett-Packard To Nearly Double [View article]
sjtratt: "Whereas I think of HPQ as a disease and its leaders as a stain on capitalism, a much more open minded investor probably has room to buy into HPQ and profit."
I'm curious. Why don't you like Meg Whitman as a leader? Thanks.
Japanese core CPI came in as expected at -0.2% on year in December vs -0.1% in November, with the figure falling despite a 2.9% climb in fuel, light and water charges.
“If we change policy to buy more and more bonds to mechanically achieve 2% inflation, people might think we are financing government spending,” Shirakawa told reporters today. “Long-term interest rates would rise, and the effects of monetary easing would be lost.”
The drop in prices was the seventh in eight months and indicates the challenge that Japan faces in climbing out of deflation and reaching its new 2% inflation target.
Apple's Valuation Is Good, But Are The Assumptions Correct? [View article]
FNSR was a bumpy ride but I used profit taking shares to add at $12.50 that I sold recently at $16.25. I also used some of the money I had from selling a mutual fund with Apple as its largest holding near the very top to buy some HPQ last year under $15.
I believe Apple is getting close to where I would start to be interested. I had a chart of AAPL one of my past newsletters with a MINIMUM target price that I believe it would hit before I'd get interested. I think we're getting close.
I hope others who read my articles warning of the difficulty of Apple holding up a market cap over $500B then $600B took my advice and sold some. Even Cramer now says he sold half and is on "house money." Bob Brinker, he hasn't mentioned owning Apple since he said he owned it near the very top.... for the first time.
Apple's Market Cap Breaks $500B Barrier; Can It Keep This Where All Others Have Failed? [View article]
Today Apple's market cap is $425B. http://bit.ly/pFSoX2 Glad I stuck with Intel, MSFT and GE even though two of the three are down also, just not nearly as much as Apple. I believe Apple is getting close to where I would start to be interested. I had a chart of AAPL one of my past newsletters with a MINIMUM target price that I believe it would hit before I'd get interested. I think we're getting close.
" Intel's (INTC) Q4 earnings are due out after the bell today, with analysts expecting that EPS fell to $0.45 from $0.64 while revenue dropped to $13.52B from $13.89B. Intel is struggling to overcome a falling market for its PC chips and the European economic slump, although it is benefiting from a shift to new data-center technologies. The chipmaker is also about to undergo a leadership change with the departure of CEO Paul Otellini. Analysts don't expect an announcement about his successor today."
Amazon's Margin Myth: Sleight Of Hand [View article]
I'm an engineer not an accountant and a search for that term yields no answer...
I can't see how SA gets all over my case for not defining basic terms in articles I submit yet they gave you a Must Read status for an article about something undefined. Maybe I have sour grapes for breakfast, but please define these terms in a correction to the article, here in a comment and in future articles.
Thanks
Dan Niles Top 4 Stock Picks For 2013: Facebook Heads The List [View article]
All my choices and FB are up since the article so we all look smart. I added to FNSR at $12.50 and took profits at $16.25 but still have a decent long position where I'd love another surge to take profits once more to get back on house money for the remaining shares.
With AMAT now at $13.25, that is a very nice gain out of nowhere with very few others recommending it late last year. I'm hopeful for another up cycle for semi's as many besides Samsung go after Apple's once fat margins.
Dow/Gold Ratio Remains Low On Historical Basis [View article]
Something to think about, with all this money printing, which asset will go up quicker and why?
SPY Soars As U.S. Borrows 32.2 Cents Of Every Dollar Spent In Fiscal 2013 [View article]
Deficit to drop to below $1T this year - US CBO Predicts.
http://bloom.bg/14DWcFX
The deficit will fall to below $1T in 2013 for the first time since 2008, the CBO forecasts. Assuming that automatic cuts take effect in March, the deficit will drop to $845B in this year and then $616B in 2014. However, debt will continue to accumulate, taking the overall burden to $20T by 2023 and annual interest payments to above $850B. The CBO also predicts that GDP growth will slow to 1.4% in 2013 before accelerating to 3.4% next year.
Apple: New Analysis Offers Reasons For A Rally [View article]
You inspired me to rework my chart:
Feb 5: "AAPL: Apple Price Gap Still Open: Resistance And Support Graphs" at http://bit.ly/11QY0bo
Key features:
#1 The thin, dashed-green horizontal line shows an open gap at $425.00. One form of TA (technical analysis) says the downtrend won't reverse until this gap is completely filled and it can go lower before it turns. Of course, TA is only "odds" and not a guarantee.
two more on the article.
Laszlo Birinyi Expects The S&P500 To Reach 1600 Before The Year Ends [View article]
Cramer also said he is not telling people to sell on the bad news from Europe.
Even a permabull should be worried a bit when they bring out targets of a market doubling again on TV when the markets are at all-time highs.
Laszlo Birinyi Expects The S&P500 To Reach 1600 Before The Year Ends [View article]
I believe he is a permabull who was blindsided by the 2008 market crash. Given the market is at an all time high, with dividends reinvested, I can forgive that I think.
But if he went bearish at the bottom in either 2002/3 or 2008/2009, then he might be a contrary indicator.
SPY And ECRI's WLI Surge To Multi-Year Highs [View article]
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has issued the following news release today:
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.
The full text of the release on BEA's Web site can be found at http://1.usa.gov/vgZr0y
Apple's Valuation Is Good, But Are The Assumptions Correct? [View article]
I wrote in this April 2012 article "Since Apple is the largest holding in several index funds such as SPY and VTI, I would give serious consideration to selling or taking large profits in these funds if I thought Apple was significantly overvalued. I have not done so."
That changed in September as Apple headed towards $700.
I took some SIGNIFICANT profits on 9/14/12 in my funds that had Apple as a top holding. I used some of the money right away to buy a new, 2013 windsurfing board then when the market corrected late last user, I used some more of the funds to buy shares of FNSR at $12.50, Intel at $20.25, some shares of HPQ at $14.40 and another name mentioned in my newsletter but not yet here.
I wrote about the HPQ buy in this seeking alpha article:
http://bit.ly/14ohUxE
I have already taken profits in the $12.50 FNSR shares by selling at $16.25 last month. I wrote about the FNSR buy and sell in my newsletter.
On page 11 of my 10/20/2012 newsletter after Apple had corrected and my subscribers started to ask me via email if we should buy, I wrote: "If you believe Apple can continue to grow earnings at 20% a year or more for the next five years, then it probably has much more room to grow as the “target” with a PE of 20 projects. But if competition from MSFT, Amazon, Google, Nokia, HTC, Samsung, HP and perhaps some new names we haven’t yet heard of has a hit products and Apple’s growth rate drops to 10%, then the 2012 target for Apple drops to $476 and the 2014 target is only $642!
...
I think the market is telling us Apple growth will drop soon... I do not own Apple."
I still don't own Apple. It is still just a bit above the open gap that probably needs to fill. Also, these stocks often correct well past where fundamentals say it is a good price as individual investors who bought with all the Apple hype here and on CNBC over the last year give up on it and sell for a loss. When I see Cramer and/or Brinker "give up" on Apple... that might be the bell ringing.
Apple's Valuation Is Good, But Are The Assumptions Correct? [View article]
I wrote in this April 2012 article "Since Apple is the largest holding in several index funds such as SPY and VTI, I would give serious consideration to selling or taking large profits in these funds if I thought Apple was significantly overvalued. I have not done so."
That changed in September as Apple headed towards $700.
I took some SIGNIFICANT profits on 9/14/12 in my funds that had Apple as a top holding. I used some of the money right away to buy a new, 2013 windsurfing board then when the market corrected late last user, I used some more of the funds to buy shares of FNSR at $12.50, Intel at $20.25, some shares of HPQ at $14.40 and another name mentioned in my newsletter but not yet here.
I wrote about the HPQ buy in this seeking alpha article:
http://bit.ly/14ohUxE
I have already taken profits in the $12.50 FNSR shares by selling at $16.25 last month. I wrote about the FNSR buy and sell in my newsletter.
On page 11 of my 10/20/2012 newsletter after Apple had corrected and my subscribers started to ask me via email if we should buy, I wrote: "If you believe Apple can continue to grow earnings at 20% a year or more for the next five years, then it probably has much more room to grow as the “target” with a PE of 20 projects. But if competition from MSFT, Amazon, Google, Nokia, HTC, Samsung, HP and perhaps some new names we haven’t yet heard of has a hit products and Apple’s growth rate drops to 10%, then the 2012 target for Apple drops to $476 and the 2014 target is only $642!
...
I think the market is telling us Apple growth will drop soon... I do not own Apple."
I still don't own Apple. It is still just a bit above the open gap that probably needs to fill. Also, these stocks often correct well past where fundamentals say it is a good price as individual investors who bought with all the Apple hype here and on CNBC over the last year give up on it and sell for a loss. When I see Cramer and/or Brinker "give up" on Apple... that might be the bell ringing.
Toni Sacconaghi Expects Dow Dog Hewlett-Packard To Nearly Double [View article]
I'm curious. Why don't you like Meg Whitman as a leader? Thanks.
SPY Adjusted For Dividends At Another Record High As WLI Hits A 74-Week High [View article]
http://bloom.bg/10WeiVz
Japanese core CPI came in as expected at -0.2% on year in December vs -0.1% in November, with the figure falling despite a 2.9% climb in fuel, light and water charges.
“If we change policy to buy more and more bonds to mechanically achieve 2% inflation, people might think we are financing government spending,” Shirakawa told reporters today. “Long-term interest rates would rise, and the effects of monetary easing would be lost.”
The drop in prices was the seventh in eight months and indicates the challenge that Japan faces in climbing out of deflation and reaching its new 2% inflation target.
Apple's Valuation Is Good, But Are The Assumptions Correct? [View article]
Today Apple's market cap is $425B.
http://bit.ly/pFSoX2
I believe Apple is getting close to where I would start to be interested. I had a chart of AAPL one of my past newsletters with a MINIMUM target price that I believe it would hit before I'd get interested. I think we're getting close.
I hope others who read my articles warning of the difficulty of Apple holding up a market cap over $500B then $600B took my advice and sold some. Even Cramer now says he sold half and is on "house money." Bob Brinker, he hasn't mentioned owning Apple since he said he owned it near the very top.... for the first time.
Apple's Market Cap Breaks $500B Barrier; Can It Keep This Where All Others Have Failed? [View article]
http://bit.ly/pFSoX2
Glad I stuck with Intel, MSFT and GE even though two of the three are down also, just not nearly as much as Apple.
I believe Apple is getting close to where I would start to be interested. I had a chart of AAPL one of my past newsletters with a MINIMUM target price that I believe it would hit before I'd get interested. I think we're getting close.
Why Intel Is A Great Buy [View article]
http://on.mktw.net/U3TXZa
" Intel's (INTC) Q4 earnings are due out after the bell today, with analysts expecting that EPS fell to $0.45 from $0.64 while revenue dropped to $13.52B from $13.89B. Intel is struggling to overcome a falling market for its PC chips and the European economic slump, although it is benefiting from a shift to new data-center technologies. The chipmaker is also about to undergo a leadership change with the departure of CEO Paul Otellini. Analysts don't expect an announcement about his successor today."