Kirk Lindstrom

Semis' Downturn - Which Companies Will Survive, Part 1

I look forward to your rating of companies but I should warn you that Gartner has been as accurate as a monkey throwing darts at major turning points.

From "Gartner Dataquest Semiconductor Capital Equipment Spending Historical Forecasts" at kirklindstrom.blogspot...

"14 February 2000 Wafer Fab Equipment and Capital Spending Forecast: How Exciting Will 2000 Be? The semiconductor recovery accelerated, and unit demand was better than expected. Spending for capacity additions began in earnest, initially in the logic-centered foundry industry, but is expected to broadly expand into memory in mid-2000.

2 October 2000 The semiconductor recovery is in full swing, driven by strong unit demand. Spending for capacity additions strongly accelerated in 2000, and positive growth is expected to continue into 2002."

or more recently near the top

"30 July 2007: Semiconductor capital equipment spending is in a shallow correction, although sales will still rise 2.7% in 2007, and growth will revive to reach 6.2% in 2008."