Kirk Lindstrom

Li-ion Battery Manufacturers: The Bleeding Edge of Energy Storage Technology

On viability, note I said "yet"... it seems we agree it is not viable at the current price of its products.

I think from my comment on your other article on the Volt, I think VLNC has a shot at being competitive if they can get costs down by a third to a half. IF Obama's stimulus plan is to have manufacturing in the US so they can use VLNC batteries in the vans Ford will sell (Tanfield + Smith Electric Vehicles) and to reduce dependence on foreign oil... a low cost loan to build manufacturing in the US helps get over the cost hump until they get scale. I bet it saves on shipping costs to have batteries close to the assembly plants too.

Check out the photos here:
www.courier-journal.co...
Note that U-Charge is a Valence product. 8^)

My sense is the US government under Obama is FINALLY going to to what it should have done after the oil embargo of the 1970s.... and that is subsidize alternative energy until it can get costs down to counter illegal price fixing by Opec. I think it is a mistake to build cars with "exploding battery deflectors" inside to repeat the Pinto mistake we made in the 1970s to go cheap....

I'll send you the write-up I just did on VLNC if I can find your email address in your profile.

Li-ion Battery Manufacturers: The Bleeding Edge of Energy Storage Technology

Here is California, people have bought hybrids to get the sticker from the state that allows solo drivers to use the commuter lanes. For some, that is worth $10,000 extra. Add in the image they can project to their "Palo Alto neighbors" who seem to have a Prius in every driveway.... there is value to many in being green besides savings at the gas pump. Others who have children fighting in Iraq or Afghanistan might feel the expense of a hybrid is justified too.

Otherwise, thanks for making your points well. I own and cover VLNC in my newsletter but mostly for trading with a cost per share break-even now of about 8¢. I need reminders that this is not a viable company yet so I need to not get overly exuberant when it has big jumps in price...

Battery Technology: A Different Set of Rules

>>"Automotive is a prime example. Everything I've read talks about how you need a 50 kWh battery for an EV. Using Li-ion that's a $75,000 battery for a $100,000 sports car (after tax credits). The percentage of the U.S. population that can afford a $100,000 car is miniscule. The percentage that will pay that much for a glorified toy is even smaller." <<

Agree but.... I believe I read the Tesla, manufactured very close to my home, uses 3,000 Li cells. Of course that is going to be expensive. Have you checked out the Bramo motorcycle? It uses about 6 Valence batteries that look to be the same size as lead acid cells. Segway and several commercial vehicles are starting to use the batteries too.

Obviously the battery in low volume in the infant stage is expensive just as the 8080 microprocessor was expensive on a per bit basis when Intel released its first uP. Have you looked into what Valence is doing to try and reduce costs for their batteries? They must have something right as Tanfield (sp) is going to use the batteries in commercial vans that I hear Ford will sell with the Ford label.

Battery Technology: A Different Set of Rules

"While reader comments have made it clear that folks don’t like it when I challenge their assumptions and they like it even less when I criticize a favorite stock, the numerous comments pro and con have helped refine my thinking and clarify the core message."

Congratulations on your success as the comments above range from positive to nasty.

Have you used any of the new tools that have Lithium batteries? I have a new Skill "2336 ixo Lithium Ion Cordless screwdriver." I like the small size, light weight and ability to hold a charge far better than NiCad. I really don't care that it cost $40 compared to maybe $20 for a cheap tool.

Have you considered that many thought the cost of seat belts, air bags and smog equipment were all good reasons to not put them in cars? Now they are expected and nobody seems to complain about the higher cost.

Many here in California don't care as much about the lowest cost but they do care about performance and "green" solutions. There is a waiting list to pay over $100,000 for an electric sports car that runs on thousands of Lithium batteries. Others have paid an extra $10,000 to get a hybrid sticker so they can drive in the car pool lanes. Saving gas was not as expensive as saving time.

Many are patriots and will do anything they can to help sending money to the Middle East.

Have you read my article here called "Valence Technology: Green Stock with Potential to Bloom?"
seekingalpha.com/artic...

I made a great deal of money selling some shares into strength and the shares I have left are up over 50% since I penned that Feb 2008 article.