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  • Orexigen's Weight Loss Drug Will Be Approved Soon And Will Lead Market - Here Is Why [View article]
    If approved, Contrave will face the exact same generic equivalent competitive pressures that Qsymia has battled.
    May 28 10:43 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals - Why I Believe It Is The Next Major Biotech [View article]
    Yes, I was horribly wrong about early sales. However, it doesn't mean they won't come and doesn't change my long thesis. My call to buy at $1.25 wasn't bad though. It is easy to hold with a low cost basis and long term investment horizon. Not as easy for the folks who bought in much higher.
    Jan 18 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq - The Path To $150 Million In Sales [View article]
    Each retail prescription is for 60 pills and each bottle sold to the pharmacy is 100 pills so the calculation is off by approx 40%.
    Jun 26 07:38 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: The Improving Odds Of A Belviq Blockbuster [View article]
    "That to me is worth a speculative play on a $1.25 stock. At this level, Arena is trading like a never-expiring zero strike call option."

    And 13 of the 45 comments on that article came from you arguing why Belviq wouldn't get approved. You probably should have bought the stock.
    Jun 25 09:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: The Improving Odds Of A Belviq Blockbuster [View article]
    People have been disagreeing with my thesis since I recommended ARNA at $1.25. I recall you also saying you would write an article in response to a similar comment a year go, still no article. Just prolific comments from someone who has done little research. Here is a point by point response to your comments.

    1). The AMA endorses new drugs for medical weight management. The only novel drug is Belviq. There is room for half a dozen blockbusters in this drug category.
    2). You miss the complete point here. Drug intervention is now listed to aid when diet and excercise isn't enough and prior to other diabetes drugs. It is my opinion that Dr.'s will write for Belviq most frequently because it has the best tolerability and side effect profile of any of these drugs. It also reduces HbA1c by .8 for non-responders and 1.2 for responders. Read the link to the most recent study before.
    3). Commercial coverage for 30% at launch + several states will cover at launch but this will grow to most everyone in 2015. There will be a lot of responders who take chronically but we will just have to see.
    4). Eisai guided to $150-200M in thier FY2013, excellent numbers and putting it on path to a blockbuster in 2015.
    5). Yes it would but shows that Accenture and Eisai under forecasted demand.
    6). Eisai forecasted government coverage by 2017 and it should happen much earlier. This bill will have a lot of support and the AMA behind it.
    7). Shorts original thesis was it wouldn't be approved. They were wrong.
    8). Shorts have grown because now the thesis is Belviq = Qsymia and they are again wrong.
    9). Neither Meridia or Orlistat had the profile of a 1st line drug. To make the comparison shows how uneducated you are in the matter.

    I of course could be wrong and you don't know until you look in hindsight. I have no problem with points being challenged but the arguments aren't very good.
    Jun 25 08:12 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: The Improving Odds Of A Belviq Blockbuster [View article]
    Lipitor generated $865M its first full year on the market and $2B in Year 2. I don't know if Belviq will do $2B in Year 2. It is unlikely but in Years 3 and 4, it could catch up and do $4B a year. Cart before the horse. Right now Wall Street doesn't expect much success with Belviq and that is the point.

    After over 1K comments on Seeking Alpha, one would think you could take your vast knowledge and wisdom to write an article we can all learn from.
    Jun 24 09:46 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Surges On Script Data [View article]
    "I have personally stated that I would like to see the company get to 40,000 scripts in the first three months of sales (i.e. June, July, August). In my opinion, if the company can do that number they have a shot at seeing 12 month sales at $250 million. Hitting $250 would trigger purchase price adjustments and the lowest tier of bonus payments."

    Incorrect. You need $250M in Net Sales by the end of March 2014, 9mo, in order to trigger the first set of Purchase Price Adjustments. The PPA's are calculated based on Eisai's fiscal year, not a calendar year, which runs until the end of March. I personally think you could see 40K scripts a week before the end of 2013.
    Jun 21 12:35 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Study Of Arena's Lorcaserin Against The Backdrop Of Several Anti-Obesity Mechanisms [View article]
    Although an analysis of the MOA of each drug is interesting, an equal focus on the safety and tolerability profile is just, if not more, important. As an example, GLP-1's are injected and have a host of serious side effects such as pancreatitis. Qnexa causes tingling in the extremities, cognitive issues and a risk of birth defects. You need a holistic review of each one to include efficacy with MOA, safety and tolerability.

    The key of a widely used monotherapy is for it to be mild, safe and tolerable. For Belviq, it has a defined set of responders and this is caught in the label. Take it for 12 weeks and you will either be a responder or not. About 42% (as a mono-therapy) are classified as responders and go on to lose an average of 11-12%. Diabetics reduce HbA1c by a full point, better than many blockbuster diabetes drugs such as Januvia, regardless of weight loss. Bariatricians will combine with cycles of phentermine which will dramatically increase the efficacy and the two work in synergy to off-set side-effects. Cardiologists, Endocrinologists, Gastroenterologists, and PCP's will primarily use it as a mono-therapy. It is the most-important molecule for this indication approved to-date. We will see how it will do in the market soon.
    Jun 4 09:43 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Marketing An Anti-Obesity Drug [View article]

    I hope you don't take offense but it seems like you are grasping for content to justify publishing endless SA articles on Arena for the sake of earning .01 a page click. Your knowledge of this space seems cursory at best.

    "Why mention the benefits of Belviq for diabetes in this article? The company can not even market the drug for diabetes as it is not labeled for that. The fact of the matter is that losing weight (via any method) has positive impacts on diabetes."

    BLOOM-DM results are right there in the label and it can absolutely be marketed as a diabetes drug. Do you believe that Belviq's MOA for reducing HbA1c and Fasting Glucose in diabetics is weight loss? It sounds like you do. You should compare the DM results for Qsymia and Belviq. Weight loss is a part but there is a sub-receptor at 2c that has an impact on glucose control. You should research this.

    "The novo drug victoza is an interesting look." Novo has already said this drug is for the severely obese only. It is 5X the cost of Belviq, injected and comes with severe potential AE's. No payor would cover victoza for weight loss before trying less expensive, milder agents first. These drugs are not competitive.

    "The ONLY benefit of being novel is in the patent protection." No, this is a benefit but not the main benefit. A novel molecule as a single agent provides a new tool for physicians to try. As a novel agent, it can be combined with other drugs. It has the ability to be indicated for other diseases over time. There are numerous benefits to being a novel drug.
    May 30 09:32 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sales Estimates For Arena's Belviq Are Too Low And Shares Are Undervalued [View article]
    As often happens with early growth biotechs, the PE ratio will be forward looking based on growth. ALXN is a good example. If Belviq is growing at 50% a year, the early PE will be 50-100x earnings. As growth slows, so will the effective PE.
    May 29 09:58 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Buyout More 'Highly Probable' Than MannKind [View article]
    Arena management has commented in the past that they have been in discussions with a lot of different BP's. Any BP who is interested in a partnership will sign a non-disclosure and a stand-still agreement to acquire the company. This is a common practice in biotech and it is likely that most of the big guys have one in place with Arena.
    May 23 05:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Buyout More 'Highly Probable' Than MannKind [View article]
    If Arena gets bought out, it will be for much more than a $4-5B price tag if Belviq has a strong launch. The key is launch, growing acceptance and earnings. Also don't discount something different than a buyout like a JV agreement between Eisai and another BP in conjunction with taking a 49% interest in Arena so they can keep the NOL's. There are all sorts of scenarios that can play off based on Belviq success.
    May 23 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Is Still A Great Short [View article]

    If you truly want to understand why your short thesis is wrong, then you can read my article on this:

    Your assumptions are off-base. Eisai believes they can hit pretty much the entire target of prescribers within 30 days. Arena already has deferred revenue of $11.6M from Q4 they will likely recognize this quarter for launch supply. Eisai's guidance of $200M in 3 quarters is far above any current analyst and I think you could see them exceed this number based on the growing payor coverage.

    I hope you don't have a large short position but you never know, you could be a genius and be spot-on with your assessment.
    May 23 05:13 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Buyout More 'Highly Probable' Than MannKind [View article]
    Great article Chris. One comment though regarding an ARNA acquisition, Arena likely has stand-still agreements in place with most of the major big pharmas. It is unlikely either gets acquired within the next year.
    May 23 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena NOLs Will Come Into Play Soon [View article]
    As of December 31, 2012, Arena had $623M in Federal NOL.
    May 20 09:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment