Kris Tuttle

What You Don't Know About Gaming Could Make You Obsolete

Agreed. I wish more of the content would help instill social skills and limit the time of play. Kids need physical activity and lots of it. Unfortunately video games (other than Wii Fit and the like) don't help at all with physical activity. Your picture above talks about 60 minutes of active time. The real figure is more like 6 hours if you have boys between 2 and 14. 60 minutes.... Ha, ha, ha.

Intel Facing a Formidable Foe in ARM

You are probably right about ARM but for the wrong reasons.

The Short Case for Amazon.com

I've heard that AMZN is "just a retailer" arguments for about a decade now. It's true of course but if you're going to analyze the stock from that perspective you are likely to get your head handed to you.

Amazon has fundamental differences from typical retail stocks as well as big differences from raw technology names like RIMM, GOOG and AAPL.

A simple-minded approach to these names just doesn't work very well. We agree that valuation matters and over the long term these companies are judged on their long-term returns on invested capital.

The disruptive theme can push the stock fairly high. If the market comes to believe that books are ready to go the way of the newspapers (I'm not sure I agree) then the leaders in the eBook segment will do very well. Because Amazon is in the book and media business they stand to gain or lose the most from the move. (Sony is strong in the technology but it won't move the needle either way there.)

So if you want to play in AMZN I think you need to do A LOT more work, including understanding their cloud-based technology and service businesses.

The move from $50 to $66 was pretty abrupt so I can understand the desire to put a short on but it's really a trading call.

Amazon Stock's Expensive Unless Free Cash Flow Doubles

I agree with your analysis and stock opinion. However I wonder what drove the stock higher over the month post the huge pop on Q1 results? I can guess that technical types may have seen the move from 45 to 60 as a huge breakout on heavy volume and this helped the stock follow through from 60 to almost 75.

But does anyone see any real fundamental change in the story to support buying stock above $60? I have not been able to figure it out. I'm a major Amazon customer and love the company, think they get Web 2.0 and all that but the valuation relative to the current core business is difficult to fathom.

Amazon.com: Why Now Might Be the Time to Short

A little screed-ish in presentation but a fairly thoughtful analysis of sentiment on AMZN.

I too am surprised how the company went from an also-ran to one of the Four Horseman that Jim Cramer is touting now.

Amazon is a great company, I admire them and appreciate them as a customer. As a business it is certainly solid and worth owning. But the move from 40 to over 60 forced me to cash out. I hadn't thought of shorting but in this market I'm adding to short positions so maybe some puts would make sense. Bull could still like the trendline if the stock fell from $70 to $50-55.

Apple, Not Amazon, Should Purchase Netflix

Doesn't make sense to me. First of all I doubt Apple wants to be in the mail rental business in any way shape or form. Secondly it is their stated aim to do digital delivery which is what iTunes, Video iPod, AppleTV and so on are all about. Why buy a business that is going away? Apple has proven adapt at adding millions of new users organically which is more and more unique in a corporate world obsessed by growth through M&A (Oracle, Yahoo, IBM.)

Even if the price is cheap I'd view it as a negative for Apple. There are probably some interested buyers out there for Netflix but now that the crowd seems to believe in digital TV the move has some PR challenges.