Kris Tuttle

Who is Crocs Trying to Fool?

The rub is always in the timing on something like this. Your analysis is reasonable although has the clear bias of a guy who is short. No matter. There are two things that make me feel that the time might not be right this second. The first is that we are coming into the summer which I expect should be the best of times for them as they load the much expanded channel with their supply of the traditional Crocs. The second reason is the difficulty in figuring consumer tastes with something like this. I'm surprised by people I know showing up with these super ugly shoes on their feet. The boots and other modesl could appeal to a sort of croc lover at first. The shoe business and fashion are hard to fathom sometimes.

I'm with you in wanting to short a rocket like this but have been burned too many times being early. If some signals come in that suggest a slowing of their momentum it could be a good short.