Kristjan Velbri

The Emperor's Children Also Have No Clothes

Nice analogy you got there with Kutcher's Punk'd.

U.S. Government's Size: The Slow-Motion Crisis

The septic tank regulation is peanuts compared to what is coming with the cap and tax bill. According to the new bill, Americans would have to have the home inspected for energy efficiency to be approved for a energy certificate. If you fail the evaluation, you need to make 'improvements' and then call in the government workers again. By the way, did I mention that you cannot sell your house if you don't have an energy certificate? At the same time, Nancy Pelosi just got a new plane on the taxpayers' expense (200 seats, Pelosi only needs one, fule bill $5M/year) with no regard to energy efficiency. What a bunch of hypocrytes!

Pay Extra Close Attention to the Dollar

FX swap, that is, not FW swap. Sorry for the stupid mistake.

Pay Extra Close Attention to the Dollar

This is very worrying indeed, especially if you consider that most of the Fed's FX swaps with foreign central banks have already been settled. I don't want to give the impression of blatantly spamming the link to my own site, but I really think you should see the FW swap graph: www.kristjanvelbri.com...

As of last week, the swaps are down to $28.278 billion dollars. The high was put in at $571.687 last year in November (during the week that ended on November 12th, just for clarity - the Fed publishes these numbers on a weekly basis).

What Should Investors Do in the Age of 'Extremistan'?

From the article: **More winners take all competitions. As in: a small number of individuals or companies win everything. More inequality and less social justice are inevitable.**

Since when have financial markets been about 'social justice'?

Eastern Europe Still Lagging Behind Economic Recovery

At the same time that China and Australia are picking up speed, Eastern Europe is in a dark hole. Real estate troubles are now a secondary problem as fiscal problems are turning into a nightmare. This is especially the case in Latvia, which is under the watchful eye of the IMF. The IMF's outlook for Latvia certainly isn't something to cheer about (www.kristjanvelbri.com...) and it doesn't look like things are getting better any time soon. The Q3 results for Swedbank (a Swedish bank that has a large stake in the Latvian banking sector) for Latvia were horrible - loan defaults picked up considerable speed while neighboring Estonia and Lithuania remained in a relatively stable downtrend.

VIX

Ahh...the good old megaphones. You should see the megaphones of 2008 on the GS chart. Really blows your mind.

Gold's Next Bull Market Has Begun

For those that don't know or haven't kept track of the news, 4assetmanagement will soon be out with a JUNIOR gold miners' ETF. Talk about a bull market, these stocks will go berserk once the money starts rolling in: www.kristjanvelbri.com...

California's New Budget Already $1B in the Hole

It's not only the California budget that's already in the "hole". The Treasury was in the hole on the second day of this fiscal year. Here: www.lemetropolecafe.co...
Raw data here: fms.treas.gov/webservi...

The Potential for Declining Pressure on the Dollar

That's all it is - a potential. Who cares about the personal savings rate of Americans when Ben is busy behind the printers. The Fed bought around 50% of Treasurys issued during the previous quarter. AND the Fed is now in the housing market, which means that they have no room to maneuver even if they wanted to. It's a catch 22. Declining pressure? In the long term, no way.

Why China Still Loves Gold, Silver

fleeing omega, thanks for the update. From what I've read, it's not only the banks that are doing the selling, the shopping malls are in the business as well, selling official Chinese coins and plates from the Chinese Mint.

Malpass in WSJ: Devaluing Currency Has Never Led to Prosperity

Usually you don't find this kind of analysis in the WSJ and that's why I don't visit their page, so thanks for the referral. A great read indeed.

Wary of the New Gold Rush

I don't know why you even bothered writing this article. You clearly don't know what a bubble looks like. Right now, we're in the point where everyone is talking and writing about gold, but how many are actually buying? And many actually hold physical gold? It's the big players that are doing most of the buying, not your average cab driver. They will be the last ones to the party and buy gold once it hits several thousand (will it be 5000 or 150000 is up to Banana Ben). If, that is, they still have the money to buy gold after they have lost everything.

What Will Dollar, Gold and S&P 500 Do in Q309?

Q3 is over. This is Q4.

Why China Still Loves Gold, Silver

Don't worry about it. It was an honest mistake. It's a German name, by the way.

On Oct 05 11:05 PM Slvrizgold wrote:

> Sorry Kristjan, you are not a girl. In America, your name spelled
> that way signifies female and your hair looks long and pulled back.
> I looked and your profile and realize that you living in Estonia
> means you have more sense that most Americans, many who live in a
> false fake media bubble of propaganda and lies. You don't look like
> a girl after I looked at your picture more closely. Your forehead
> is too broad and you have a strong chin. Sorry dude. My monitor
> is small and I didn't look closely. Peace out.