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  • My KISS Portfolio: 4th Quarter Update And Year End Review [View article]
    Nice article, and I appreciate your candor. Is there a common website or resource you use to track dividend announcements/changes? Just going through every company's individual announcements each quarter sounds a bit tedious...Your thoughts on this would be appreciated.
    Jan 8 01:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Guidance Is Troublesome [View article]
    It is a good company with a strong dividend history, but sometimes DG investors can over-pay. Like I did, paying $81 a share for KMR, when I could have waited for $74 now. Don't wish to sell it either as it in IRA, so no tax loss write-off, just wondering if I should add more at these prices...
    Dec 5 04:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Delicious At $500? [View article]
    As a hold, yes, but not as a buy, given the overall market levels. Investors have had many chances to buy in the low $400's. That boat has probably sailed for good. Thanks for checking on my old article!
    Dec 3 05:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fully Invested Institutions Choosing Stocks Over Bonds [View article]
    Great article, Chris. However, does this carry over to EEM? The last 12 months, EEM has been directionless with short significant rallies followed by strong major dips, which corresponds to your "sideways movement", in effect. While I agree QE is powerful support for EEM, does your model still support bullish thesis on EEM as the chart is not as clear-cut as SPY chart is for 2013?
    Nov 21 03:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You May Think That The Market Is Overvalued But These Dividend Champions Are Not: Part 1 [View article]
    Great article as always, Chuck. But there is another angle. Suppose if one's equity exposure is entirely through mutual funds (even passive index funds with low ER) as most investors have, the market price rise this year (compared to last 4 years) has been so good that the valuations (measured on P/E ttm basis) do appear frothy for the market as a whole compared to median. As you rightly said, this can happen even if specific companies like you identified have attractive valuation. So, for these high overall market valuation may signal a time to exit to cash from these MFs but not in a all-or-nothing way - considering the simple fact that nobody knows for sure where the market will be in next 3-6 months.

    For example, given this context in current market scenario, one may follow a tactic like 10% reduction in equity allocation for say, every 5% move up in S&P 500, so one can accumulate sufficient dry powder over the coming months. My friend has been applying this strategy since May 2013 when his portfolio equity allocation reached >90% (from 50% just 4 years ago) with no re-balancing. Since May 2013, he has brought it to a 70% allocation by following the above tactic with every 50-100 point quantum jump in S&P. He expects to go to 60% (i.e. take another 10% off the table) after S&P reaches 1800, which appears around the corner. Since nobody knows what the top is, this strategy helps him accumulating cash from a low 4 years ago to about 35% cash today. Interestingly, he wants to apply the reverse strategy for major declines in S&P, ie. add 10% to equity allocation for every 100 point decline. For someone like this, instead of going back in to S&P index again after a decline, we were discussing if that would be a good time to enter a DGI portfolio as chances are that a 100 point decline in S&P would likely also mean a meaningful decline in a DGI champion or contender. Of course, a tactic like this will not work in all markets because it would greatly depend on when this tactic starts (the market valuation at that time), but given that he started this when S&P was at 1650 (i.e. not a low P/E valuation), it sounds reasonable. Your views?
    Nov 15 02:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEMIG: A High-Risk, High-Return Opportunity [View article]
    Good article, Steven. Bought at $9.01, thought I was getting a steal at that price, but shocked to see it decline below $8 recently after my purchase :-( Like you and others, I bought it considering its long-term potential, attractive and stable(?) dividend, hopefully, its woes are temporary as investor sentiment on Brazil itself may be bottoming out.
    Nov 7 06:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Get Over 10% Annual Returns For 20 Years [View article]
    Point taken, but I recall that in 1993, I was a poor grad student (thankfully on a full research scholarship) with my aid package worth just around $10K a year to cover all my living expenses! Thanks to room sharing, ramen noodles and all-you-can-eat pizza joints, I got by quite nicely ....but never had enough money to invest in any stock leave alone investing a year's stipend into a dividend paying one. But point taken...
    Sep 16 08:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Strategies For A Challenging Decade Ahead [View article]
    The current CAPE Shiller ratio level is the same as was seen in 1998 and in 2003 and also in 2009. Yet, investors who stayed in the market for the following 3-4 years (esp. in 2003 or 2009) since then have been rewarded quite well. Also, note that in all of those years aforementioned, the ZIRP and QE did not exist practically as they do in 2012-13 period. Unprecedented liquidity is in the markets these days and yet the CAPE ratio is at 2003 or 2009 levels. Some can use the same metric and call this undervaluation! While nobody knows what the future holds, using the Shiller CAPE metric to determine overvaluation has not served investors in the past. Perhaps there are better behavioral finance indicators...
    Sep 4 09:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Delicious At $500? [View article]
    Interesting and cynical explanation to the mystery of AAPL's price movements. But considering the characters on Wall Street, who knows, anything's possible!
    Jul 3 04:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Be A Contrarian? [View article]
    Good article. While the equity risk factors are clearly rising, what one must not discount is the totally committed (and absurd, by some views) central banks around the world creating unprecedented liquidity in the system. Even in countries like India, there is clamor for interest rate cuts, despite high inflation. GDP growth is now the game every central bank appears to be playing, not inflation. This type of orchestrated liquidity move across the world's central banks has never been seen before, so the impact will flow into the equity markets for quite some time in my view. Where else will we invest? With weak economic fundamentals, commercial real estate is risky, and residential has barely recovered. Gold and commodities are natural places to go to when money supply rises, but the driver for them (CPI inflation) is not moving as everyone expected. So, Gold/commodities are not rising as much as people believed and shocks like the massive Gold price drop recently (attributed by many to central bank selling) can mess up any small investor.

    One can make a contrarian case that all this massive liquidity cannot continue without consequence forever, and so, make an early bet into commodities (esp. Agri). The real bubble today, in my view, is in the bond markets. People in droves are accepting bond yields below inflation. This applies not only to Treasuries but corporate bonds as well, notably from Apple! This tells me that there is still a lot of fear in the system, a clear flight to safety away from (relatively) risky assets like equities. This bodes well for continued growth in stock markets.

    I agree equity risks are rising but there are worse asset classes to be in right now.
    May 3 07:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel-Cisco Foundry Deal Confirmed [View article]
    Brilliant, original research, Ashraf! Good job on the LinkedIn connection! Your articles are a big reason why I went long INTC just a few weeks ago. The nice dividend, while the market realizes INTC's real potential, is worth the wait. Also, I liked how you systematically took down the now tired argument that 'Intel missed mobile'. Let's hope the market agrees soon with our assessment of Intel!
    Mar 29 01:03 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Stock Market Cheap? [View article]
    Does that mean S&P is undervalued, or is Gold over-valued? That's the problem of using one asset to value another, when both are subject to wide fluctuations in market value.
    Mar 5 11:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caveat Emptor: Investing In India [View article]
    Correction to my previous comment. I meant to say $430 or less. Any price below $450 appears to be a good entry to me, but then only on an absolute basis, there are better value buys than AAPL in the market in my view. Keep looking!
    Feb 6 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caveat Emptor: Investing In India [View article]
    Alpine, if you read my earlier articles on Apple and watched the price movements carefully in recent weeks, you will note that you had a window to buy at $500 or less - the price point I indicated as meriting a buy consideration in my previous articles.
    Feb 5 03:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Healthcare REITs: It Pays Dividends To Have A Circle Of Competence [View article]
    Great article, Brad. Would you say HTA is still a good buy for a 2-3 year horizon when recent price increase has brought down yield to 5.57%?
    Jan 22 07:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment