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Kumar Belle

 
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  • India Outlook 2011, Part 2: Deficits and Debt, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Interest and Exchange Rates [View article]
    Thanks! 2012 promises to be interesting to say the least.
    Jan 7 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India Outlook 2011, Part 1: Agriculture, Industry and Services [View article]
    Actually austerity measures are a way of decreasing government deficits. Since they involve the withdrawal of subsidies and other social programs they actually increase the pain of a recession in the short to medium-term. The theory behind austerity measures is that they reduce deficits, thereby decreasing the competition for capital between the private and public sectors. This in turn would, the theory goes, reduce interest rates and spur private investment, thereby ending the recession over the course of time.

    In reality, interest rates are actually negative in many of the western countries for the past few years but there has been no uptick in private investment nor in economic growth. Meanwhile austerity has resulted in more suffering of citizens. So the theory does not hold in all cases, and is in any case refuted by many Keynesian economists.

    Hope this helps.
    Nov 22 11:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Case for Sherwin Williams: Healthy Cash Flow Despite Recession [View article]
    Thanks! The inventory turnover ratio is net sales/average inventory. Average inventory = (beginning inventory+ending inventory)/2

    Hope that helps.
    Mar 11 09:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Case for Sherwin Williams: Healthy Cash Flow Despite Recession [View article]
    Well, the process was analysis of the stock to see what kind of an investment it is. Given that there is a probability of a significant correction in the market, I think it is valuable to an investor to know which companies are good long-term buys when the P/Es and dividend yields are more favorable. But yes, I do acknowledge that my conclusion isn't exactly exciting.
    Mar 8 10:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India Outlook 2011, Part 1: Agriculture, Industry and Services [View article]
    Without advising you on whether to buy or sell, let me say that this year is going to be a difficult one for India. Real estate is in a bubble, inflation continues unabated as it does in the rest of the emerging markets, lack lustre industrial growth, and the shadow of looming European bank collapses make the emerging markets all the more vulnerable to external shocks. As you might have also noticed that the foreign money that propped up the Indian market is now working its way out and the effect on Indian stock prices is evident.
    Testing time ahead for Indian stocks and the Indian economy as well. There is probably still more downside coming.
    Feb 4 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Are the Implications of Political Unrest in the Middle East? [View article]
    It raised my eyebrows as well to see Israel classified as totally free by Freedom House. The focus of the article is on the situation in Egypt and other middle eastern countries. The point of categorizing the countries was to illustrate the general absence of basic political freedoms in the region.
    Jan 29 11:51 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Are the Implications of Political Unrest in the Middle East? [View article]
    Ever since the Suez crisis the United States has for all practical purposes been the guarantor of safe pasage through the suez canal even if it belongs to Egypt. There is not a navy in the Middle East that can challenge the U.S. navy. Besides even the Chinese would want the canal open - expect their full cooperation.
    In the short-term oil prices can indeed go a bit crazy. I do believe change is coming to Egypt over the next few months.
    Jan 28 07:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Are the Implications of Political Unrest in the Middle East? [View article]
    While they voted, argued and picked a government in Iraq, basic civil liberties and the rule of law are still elusive. In any case the classification are from Freedom House. I would go so far as to say that my own native India, while a democracy, is only partly free and certainly not free in the European and American sense as yet. But we're getting there.
    Jan 28 07:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama's use of competitiveness as a theme for the State of the Union may be smart politics but is "a misdiagnosis of our problems [that] could lead to policies based on the false idea that what’s good for corporations is good for America," Paul Krugman writes. "We’re in a mess because we had a financial crisis, not because American companies have lost their ability to compete."  [View news story]
    Mr Grey you said: Yes. There is no point. Just as there is no point arguing with a Maoist, a Stalinist, a Leninist, or a fascist. I put followers of Keynes in a similar category of people who do not care about facts or the consequences of their misguided beliefs. All you have to do is look at the history of what Keynesian economics has done.
    ______________________...
    This is patent nonsense. To completely dismiss all of Keynesian economics is intellectually dishonest at best. Many of us have looked at economic history and come to a conclusion that both systems Keynesian, as well as neoliberalism are fraught with dangers if taken to the extreme. The financial crisis has brought to the fore the problem of under-regulation as opposed to over-regulation. I do not understand how naked shorts are an efficient and beneficial use of capital or how they promote jobs. But then you will call me a stupid Keynesian or some such name because you have no other intellectually relevant argument.
    Its time many of you stepped out of the realm of religion and started thinking through what might work and what doesn't. Just yelling that all government spending is useless just doesn't make any more sense than saying that the private sector ALWAYS allocates capital effectively and efficiently. Thats just theory and has no evidence in practice.
    Jan 25 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama's use of competitiveness as a theme for the State of the Union may be smart politics but is "a misdiagnosis of our problems [that] could lead to policies based on the false idea that what’s good for corporations is good for America," Paul Krugman writes. "We’re in a mess because we had a financial crisis, not because American companies have lost their ability to compete."  [View news story]
    Hear Hear!
    Jan 25 08:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama's use of competitiveness as a theme for the State of the Union may be smart politics but is "a misdiagnosis of our problems [that] could lead to policies based on the false idea that what’s good for corporations is good for America," Paul Krugman writes. "We’re in a mess because we had a financial crisis, not because American companies have lost their ability to compete."  [View news story]
    The contention from many that the government does not do productive work is not really borne out by fact. I do not say that all government activities are productive, far from it. However, I do not subscribe to the view either that all government activities are unproductive. Dont Americans get pretty clean air (as opposed to Beijing), safe food and water, really nice national parks, and safe drugs (not quite as good there under the deregulation spree of the first eight years of the 21st century)?
    Wasn't the Glass-Steagall act a common sense piece of legislation that Clinton threw away under the influence of the banking industry?
    As far as innovation is concerned, everything from anti-lock brakes to GPS came about because of government programs in partnership with the private sector. NASA doesn't do anything productive but the offshoots of NASA research are of great value to American technological domination.
    And yes, a war every 10 years is one of the most unproductive governmental activities one can imagine - and I am no peacenik! Think about it, two Iraq wars and the price of oil still ain't $40 per barrel. What a colossal waste of a trillion dollars.
    Jan 24 11:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama's use of competitiveness as a theme for the State of the Union may be smart politics but is "a misdiagnosis of our problems [that] could lead to policies based on the false idea that what’s good for corporations is good for America," Paul Krugman writes. "We’re in a mess because we had a financial crisis, not because American companies have lost their ability to compete."  [View news story]
    I agree with Krugman that it has all begun with the financial crisis. Indeed it is the financial crisis that has lowered the ability of American companies to compete. (I'm not talking about the large corporations with 1.5 trillion dollars in retained earnings). While many spend their time talking about big government, the large banks that got the US into this crisis have only gotten bigger. A tragicomedy indeed!

    As far as bringing innovation to market, there is absolutely no evidence to show that other countries are bringing innovation to market faster. If real financial reform is not enacted there will be an even bigger crisis in the not-so-distant future.
    Jan 24 07:12 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India Outlook 2011, Part 1: Agriculture, Industry and Services [View article]
    Without actually advising you as to the timing of your investments in the Indian stock market, let me present you thisfor consideration: The latest Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data for November 2010, puts the IIP at 317.9. Thats higher than the same period last year but the lowest its been this fiscal year. Looking at the General IIP data from March 2010 onwards, industrial production in India has been flat or even negative on a month to month basis. This does not bode well for corporate earnings going forward.

    Add interest rate pressure, high inflation and huge foreign hot money in the stock market...well you can guess where I'm going with this. For more insight on P/E ratios the Bombay Stock Exchange website is a good place to go. Here's the link: www.bseindia.com/stock...
    Jan 12 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India Outlook 2011, Part 2: Deficits and Debt, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Interest and Exchange Rates [View article]
    The government fiscal year, as well as the fiscal year for most companies ends on March 31 of each year. This applies for GDP.

    The Bombay Stock Exchange reports its annual statistics by the calender year, i.e. year ending December 31.

    Fiscal years cover the period from April 1 thru March 31. So you couldn't really say FY12. You would say FY 2011-12, which is April 1, 2011 thru March 31, 2012.

    Hope this answers your question.
    Jan 12 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fear a Trade War With China [View article]
    A good article with cogent arguments. Indeed the fairy tale world of laissez faire economics and free trade doesn't recognize the real world problems caused by assymetric trade and currency policies. There are winners and losers across countries as well as across demographic groups within countries.
    Sep 29 06:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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