Kurt Kasun - Seeking Alpha 'Kurt Kasun' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/kurt-kasun Is the Equities Party Over? http://seekingalpha.com/article/82788-is-the-equities-party-over?source=feed 82788 For this week, access to much of Elliott Wave International’s forecasts and chart work is free. Many traders and investors boldly proclaim that technical analysis, such as that provided by Elliott Wave and others, is akin to voodoo and advise investors to stick to the fundamentals. To which I reply: ignore technical indicators at your peril. Such avoidance/arrogance (you think you are so much smarter than the market) is particularly damaging to portfolios in two instances. One, when they involve macro themes which the names in your portfolio will be unable to escape. Two, when the change in trend only occurs after a long period of time: The longer the period before trend reversal or violation, the more powerful the potential effect on your investment.

The following chart is from Elliott Wave International:

We see that we have demonstrably violated the trend lines for the bull markets for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dating back to 1982 and 2003. It appears likely that we are going to test the trend line for the market dating back to 1974 for the third time this year. The market was unable to sustain a move above the 1982 and 2003 bull market trend lines during the market rebound following the Fed bailout of Bear Stearns (BSC) on St. Patrick’s Day.

]]> Thu, 26 Jun 2008 06:37:13 -0400 Kurt Kasun Kurt Kasun submits:
For this week, access to much of Elliott Wave International’s forecasts and chart work is free. Many traders and investors boldly proclaim that technical analysis, such as that provided by Elliott Wave and others, is akin to voodoo and advise investors to stick to the fundamentals. To which I reply: ignore technical indicators at your peril. Such avoidance/arrogance (you think you are so much smarter than the market) is particularly damaging to portfolios in two instances. One, when they involve macro themes which the names in your portfolio will be unable to escape. Two, when the change in trend only occurs after a long period of time: The longer the period before trend reversal or violation, the more powerful the potential effect on your investment.

The following chart is from Elliott Wave International:

We see that we have demonstrably violated the trend lines for the bull markets for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dating back to 1982 and 2003. It appears likely that we are going to test the trend line for the market dating back to 1974 for the third time this year. The market was unable to sustain a move above the 1982 and 2003 bull market trend lines during the market rebound following the Fed bailout of Bear Stearns (BSC) on St. Patrick’s Day.


Complete Story »]]> DBC DIA GLD IVV QQQQ SPY Kurt Kasun CPR for the Dollar? Try DNR http://seekingalpha.com/article/80836-cpr-for-the-dollar-try-dnr?source=feed 80836 Perhaps we should institute DNR rather than CPR.

A few days ago, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke shocked the world by commenting on his concerns regarding the fall of the US dollar. In past policy, the Fed refrained from discussing the US currency; US dollar commentary was supposed to have been within the exclusive purview of the US Treasury. But it is now clear that the Fed is making up the rules as it goes. The remarks have had the intended result of resuscitating the buck, a welcomed response, according to yesterday's Wall Street Journal editorial, "The Buck Stops Where," "because the price of gold and oil have fallen in each of the last two days." In this election year, there is a coordinated effort among the Treasury, the Fed, and regulatory agencies to beat down the price of commodities. If only it were that easy.

]]> Wed, 11 Jun 2008 03:45:05 -0400 Kurt Kasun Kurt Kasun submits:

Perhaps we should institute DNR rather than CPR.

A few days ago, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke shocked the world by commenting on his concerns regarding the fall of the US dollar. In past policy, the Fed refrained from discussing the US currency; US dollar commentary was supposed to have been within the exclusive purview of the US Treasury. But it is now clear that the Fed is making up the rules as it goes. The remarks have had the intended result of resuscitating the buck, a welcomed response, according to yesterday's Wall Street Journal editorial, "The Buck Stops Where," "because the price of gold and oil have fallen in each of the last two days." In this election year, there is a coordinated effort among the Treasury, the Fed, and regulatory agencies to beat down the price of commodities. If only it were that easy.


Complete Story »]]> DIA QQQQ SPY UDN UUP Kurt Kasun Commodities: Inflation Leaves Investors Little Choice http://seekingalpha.com/article/79596-commodities-inflation-leaves-investors-little-choice?source=feed 79596 The peaceful co-existence between commodity-related investments and most sectors which comprise the broader US Stock indices, is drawing to a close. As inflation tightens its grip over the world economy, US treasuries and stocks (consumer-related, tech, and financials) will suffer while investments in tangible assets will see their gains accelerate higher. I consider the terms "inflation" and "currency debasement" to be largely synonymous. The bottom line is that purchasing power is going to drastically decline. Income and wealth is not going to keep up with rising prices for goods and services for the US consumer. Hard asset investments will emerge as the sole safe haven against the deleterious effects of inflation

I find it amazing that the majority of pundits and advisors in the financial media are still peddling tech and financial investments. Most of these guys who proclaim commodities are in a bubble are merely trying to persuade their audience to invest in US stocks. "A bet against the American consumer has been a bad bet for 25 years" is a popular refrain.

]]> Sun, 01 Jun 2008 09:05:58 -0400 Kurt Kasun Kurt Kasun submits:

The peaceful co-existence between commodity-related investments and most sectors which comprise the broader US Stock indices, is drawing to a close. As inflation tightens its grip over the world economy, US treasuries and stocks (consumer-related, tech, and financials) will suffer while investments in tangible assets will see their gains accelerate higher. I consider the terms "inflation" and "currency debasement" to be largely synonymous. The bottom line is that purchasing power is going to drastically decline. Income and wealth is not going to keep up with rising prices for goods and services for the US consumer. Hard asset investments will emerge as the sole safe haven against the deleterious effects of inflation

I find it amazing that the majority of pundits and advisors in the financial media are still peddling tech and financial investments. Most of these guys who proclaim commodities are in a bubble are merely trying to persuade their audience to invest in US stocks. "A bet against the American consumer has been a bad bet for 25 years" is a popular refrain.


Complete Story »]]> Kurt Kasun