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    <title>Kurt Shrout's Instablog</title>
    <description>I have Bachelors and Masters degrees in Communication. This includes classwork and practice in journalism and broadcasting and classwork in business communication. I have over 20 years of business experience as a technical/non-technical interdepartmental/inter-company/international project/program/portfolio manager/director/consultant, business process improvement analyst/consultant, internal auditor, et cetera within the voice/data/Internet/wireless communications, financial services (insurance/banking/loans/investment), software/hardware/IT, merchandise retailing, oil and gas, legal, pharmaceutical, food processing, water purification, clinical assessments, and shipping industries. I was a certified Project Management Professional for 10 years, and I am a Six Sigma Black Belt. I am a United States citizen, but I have lived in or visited numerous foreign countries. In recent years, I have been living a retired-like lifestyle and focusing on things such as international investing. </description>
    <author>
      <name>Kurt Shrout</name>
    </author>
    <link>http://seekingalpha.com/author/kurt-shrout/instablog</link>
    <item>
      <title>China Housing Prices—Bubble or Bull?</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/702244-kurt-shrout/150324-china-housing-prices-bubble-or-bull?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">150324</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<div><span><font>(I researched and wrote this article last weekend.&nbsp;It was not published by Seeking Alpha.&nbsp;For multiple reasons, I am not going to revise it and resubmit it for publication.&nbsp;I hope some of you find it useful.)</font></span></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>There has been a great deal of talk lately regarding China&rsquo;s supposed or actual housing price bubble.&nbsp;Four key questions should be answered and, then, monitored regarding this topic.</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><span><font>1)</font><span>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span><font>Does China have a housing price bubble?</font></div><div><span><font>2)</font><span>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span><font>If yes, what is the nature and extent of the bubble?</font></div><div><span><font>3)</font><span>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span><font>Will the bubble be eased down or will it burst?</font></div><div><span><font>4)</font><span>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span><font>What will be the impact of the easing down or bursting?</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>In December of 2010, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) release a Working Paper entitled &ldquo;</font><a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp10274.pdf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font>Are House Prices Rising Too Fast in China?</font></a><font>&rdquo;.&nbsp;Multiple information sources were used in constructing this paper.&nbsp;This paper affords us with an excellent opportunity to acquire an accurate understanding of the Chinese housing market through mid-2010.</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><b><font>Per the IMF Working Paper:</font></b></div><div>&nbsp;</div><ul><li><font>&ldquo;First, on degree of price misalignment, we find that, as of mid-2010, house prices are not significantly overvalued in China as a whole.&nbsp;However, the mass-market segment in a number of coastal cities&mdash;but most clearly in Shanghai and Shenzhen&mdash;as well as a few inland cities may be in the early stages of excessive price growth.&nbsp;Early signs of price misalignment can also be detected in the luxury segment in Beijing and Nanjing.&rdquo;</font></li><li><font>&ldquo;Second, we find that over the past decade, when misalignments in house prices have occurred, they have been corrected relatively quickly.&rdquo;&nbsp;&ldquo;This constant correction of house prices is unlike the behavior observed in several industrial economies before 2008&mdash;especially the U.S., New Zealand, and France&mdash;where deviations from benchmark prices tended to persist far longer, allowing for an accumulation in vulnerabilities, ending in a large and abrupt adjustment.&rdquo;</font></li><li><font>&ldquo;Third, the policy measures taken by the Chinese government in April 2010 appear to have had some impact on price growth. The gaps between market and fundamentals implied prices have become smaller in a few cities. However, in a few cities, these market and policy measures do not seem to have been very effective in bringing prices back toward fundamentals. In particular, prices in the mass market segments in Guangzhou, Tianjin, and Shenzhen recently seem to have remained persistently misaligned.&rdquo;</font></li><li><font>&ldquo;Given the awareness of China&rsquo;s authorities of the risks excessive property price growth poses and their experience in containing them, the likelihood of financial instability precipitated by a housing price bust seems small.&rdquo;</font></li></ul><div>&nbsp;</div><div><b><font>What has happened since mid-2010?</font></b></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>The </font><a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/enGliSH/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font>National Bureau of Statistics of China</font></a><font> (NBS) provides monthly updates on housing price increases or decreases.&nbsp;There was well-founded criticism of the accuracy of these statistics.&nbsp;Recently, these statistics were </font><a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-02/16/c_13735073.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font>improved</font></a><font> via better and wider data collection techniques and cross-checking.&nbsp;</font><a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-12/23/c_13662115.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font>Further improvements</font></a><font> will be made this year.</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>(You should avoid <i>jumping to high</i> regarding this statistical accuracy issue.&nbsp;Remember, China is still a developing nation.&nbsp;More of these kinds of issues exist in developing nations.&nbsp;Also, even well developed nations like the U.S. produce some faulty statistics.&nbsp;For example, the U.S. Unemployment Rate greatly understates the actual unemployment situation, and there is no significant movement toward improving this statistic.&nbsp;The point here is not to belittle the U.S.&nbsp;The point is to get people to view China&rsquo;s statistical issues, where such statistical issues actually do exist, in proper context.)</font></div><div>&nbsp;<br><strong><u>NBS:<br><br></u></strong></div><div><u><a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/newsandcomingevents/t20110222_402704540.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font>Sales Price of Residential Buildings in 70 Large and Medium-Sized Cities in January</font></a></u></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>New Housing Prices:</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>&ldquo;Comparing with the same month of last year, the sales price of 68 cities in 70 large and medium-sized cities went up, that of 2 cities went down. Of the total, that of 10 cities grew more than 10%.&rdquo;</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>Existing Housing Prices:</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>&ldquo;The sales price of 65 cities in 70 large and medium-sized cities went up, that of 5 cities declined. Of which, 6 cities rose above 10% comparing with the same month last year.&rdquo;</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>There is no mention of an inflation adjustment in regard to these statistics.&nbsp;They appear to be unadjusted for inflation.&nbsp;Also, in viewing these statistics, it is important to keep in mind that sales of new homes far outnumber sales of existing homes in China.</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>The IMF Working Paper named six specific markets about which there was a concern&mdash;Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Beijing luxury, and Nanjing luxury.&nbsp;In this most-recent NBS data, Beijing had a general (not just luxury) year-over-year new housing price increase of 6.8%.&nbsp;All of the other market-of-concern cities had year-over-year housing price increases of less than 6.8%.</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>China has a housing price bubble forming in certain markets; and those forming bubbles are in the process of being combated by the Chinese government.&nbsp;In the last year, China has taken numerous steps to address, or that will serve to address, the forming bubbles.&nbsp;These steps included:</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><ul><li><font>Raising down payment requirements.</font></li><li><font>Limiting purchases of first, second, and third homes.</font></li><li><font>Introducing trial property taxes in Shanghai and Chongqing that can serve as a model for a wider introduction of property taxes.</font></li><li><font>Raising bank reserve requirements eight times.</font></li><li><font>Raising the benchmark interest rate three times.</font></li><li><font>Increasing the foreign exchange rate value of the Yuan on multiple occasions.</font></li></ul><div>&nbsp;</div><div><span>Additionally:&nbsp;&ldquo;China will build 10 million affordable homes in 2011, as part of a plan to build 36 million properties for low-income families during the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015).&nbsp;The total investment this year will be 1.3 trillion Yuan ($196.9 billion), said Qi Ji, vice-minister of housing and urban-rural development...&nbsp;&lsquo;The government will provide affordable housing projects with land for free, which we didn't include in the costs&rsquo;, said Qi.&rdquo;&nbsp;&ldquo;Qi said the government will provide 500 billion Yuan for the investment and the rest will be raised from the markets by non-governmental organizations.&rdquo;&nbsp;</span><span>&ldquo;</span><span>Construction of 5.9 million government-subsidized homes began in 2010, and 3.7 million have been finished, according to the ministry.&rdquo;&nbsp;(</span><a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011npc/2011-03/09/content_12143170.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span>Source</span></a><span>)</span></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>This will also serve to hold down or reduce housing prices in China.</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><b><font>There are other factors in play here as well.</font></b></div><div>&nbsp;</div><ul><li><font>There are limited other-than-housing investment options in China.&nbsp;Investment options for Chinese citizens are slowly increasing over time, so this issue is in the process of being slowly addressed.</font></li><li><font>Chinese citizens have a high savings rate and are less prone to spend.&nbsp;(Investing in a home is a form of saving.)&nbsp;This will become less true as China strengthens its social safety net, which it plans to do, and encourages more consumption, which it has already begun to do.</font></li><li><font>Incomes are increasing more in China.&nbsp;Per a February 28, 2011 </font><a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/enGliSH/newsandcomingevents/t20110228_402705764.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font>report</font></a><font> from the NBS:&nbsp;&ldquo;<span>In 2010, the annual per capita net income of rural households was 5,919 Yuan, or a real increase of 10.9% over the previous year when the factors of price increase were deducted. &nbsp;The annual per capita <i>disposable</i> income of urban households was 19,109 Yuan, or a real increase of 7.8%.&rdquo;&nbsp;From 2005 to 2010, price-factor-adjusted per capita <i>disposable</i> urban income rose at a rate of 9.7% per annum.&nbsp;(</span></font><a href="http://english.sina.com/business/2011/0307/363036.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font>Source</font></span></a><font><span>)&nbsp;The rising incomes serve to make higher housing prices more affordable.</span></font></li><li><font>The availability of mortgage financing is increasing.&nbsp;Medium and long-term, if not short-term, this trend should continue; and it should continue to exert upward pressure on housing prices.</font></li></ul><div>&nbsp;</div><div><b><font>What is the extent of China&rsquo;s and the world&rsquo;s financial exposure?</font></b></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>It appears that China&rsquo;s forming housing price bubble in certain markets is going to be eased or smacked down, versus bursting.&nbsp;China has been taking quality proactive measured steps to address the housing price situation for almost a year now.&nbsp;Also, China has a history of successfully correcting housing price misalignments.</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>The extent of potential harm is not as great as many people fear.&nbsp;Two reasons for this are:</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><ol><li><font>Down payment requirements in China are high.&nbsp;The first home down payment rate is now 30%.&nbsp;The second home down payment rate is now 60%.&nbsp;(About a year ago, these figures were 20% and 40% respectively.)</font></li><li><font>There are little or no associated derivatives.</font></li></ol><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>On the concerning side, local Chinese governments depend on property sales for some of their revenues.&nbsp;Some of these property sales are for commercial, versus residential, development though.</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>Per the IMF working paper, &ldquo;real estate investment now accounts for&hellip;around 9 percent of (China&rsquo;s) GDP&rdquo;.&nbsp;This 9% figure should include both residential and non-residential real estate investment.&nbsp;A turndown in housing sales and prices in certain Chinese markets will only be detrimental to a limited extent.</font></div>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Fri, 18 Mar 2011 21:37:58 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<div><span><font>(I researched and wrote this article last weekend.&nbsp;It was not published by Seeking Alpha.&nbsp;For multiple reasons, I am not going to revise it and resubmit it for publication.&nbsp;I hope some of you find it useful.)</font></span></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>There has been a great deal of talk lately regarding China&rsquo;s supposed or actual housing price bubble.&nbsp;Four key questions should be answered and, then, monitored regarding this topic.</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><span><font>1)</font><span>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span><font>Does China have a housing price bubble?</font></div><div><span><font>2)</font><span>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span><font>If yes, what is the nature and extent of the bubble?</font></div><div><span><font>3)</font><span>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span><font>Will the bubble be eased down or will it burst?</font></div><div><span><font>4)</font><span>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span><font>What will be the impact of the easing down or bursting?</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>In December of 2010, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) release a Working Paper entitled &ldquo;</font><a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp10274.pdf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font>Are House Prices Rising Too Fast in China?</font></a><font>&rdquo;.&nbsp;Multiple information sources were used in constructing this paper.&nbsp;This paper affords us with an excellent opportunity to acquire an accurate understanding of the Chinese housing market through mid-2010.</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><b><font>Per the IMF Working Paper:</font></b></div><div>&nbsp;</div><ul><li><font>&ldquo;First, on degree of price misalignment, we find that, as of mid-2010, house prices are not significantly overvalued in China as a whole.&nbsp;However, the mass-market segment in a number of coastal cities&mdash;but most clearly in Shanghai and Shenzhen&mdash;as well as a few inland cities may be in the early stages of excessive price growth.&nbsp;Early signs of price misalignment can also be detected in the luxury segment in Beijing and Nanjing.&rdquo;</font></li><li><font>&ldquo;Second, we find that over the past decade, when misalignments in house prices have occurred, they have been corrected relatively quickly.&rdquo;&nbsp;&ldquo;This constant correction of house prices is unlike the behavior observed in several industrial economies before 2008&mdash;especially the U.S., New Zealand, and France&mdash;where deviations from benchmark prices tended to persist far longer, allowing for an accumulation in vulnerabilities, ending in a large and abrupt adjustment.&rdquo;</font></li><li><font>&ldquo;Third, the policy measures taken by the Chinese government in April 2010 appear to have had some impact on price growth. The gaps between market and fundamentals implied prices have become smaller in a few cities. However, in a few cities, these market and policy measures do not seem to have been very effective in bringing prices back toward fundamentals. In particular, prices in the mass market segments in Guangzhou, Tianjin, and Shenzhen recently seem to have remained persistently misaligned.&rdquo;</font></li><li><font>&ldquo;Given the awareness of China&rsquo;s authorities of the risks excessive property price growth poses and their experience in containing them, the likelihood of financial instability precipitated by a housing price bust seems small.&rdquo;</font></li></ul><div>&nbsp;</div><div><b><font>What has happened since mid-2010?</font></b></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>The </font><a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/enGliSH/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font>National Bureau of Statistics of China</font></a><font> (NBS) provides monthly updates on housing price increases or decreases.&nbsp;There was well-founded criticism of the accuracy of these statistics.&nbsp;Recently, these statistics were </font><a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-02/16/c_13735073.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font>improved</font></a><font> via better and wider data collection techniques and cross-checking.&nbsp;</font><a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-12/23/c_13662115.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font>Further improvements</font></a><font> will be made this year.</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>(You should avoid <i>jumping to high</i> regarding this statistical accuracy issue.&nbsp;Remember, China is still a developing nation.&nbsp;More of these kinds of issues exist in developing nations.&nbsp;Also, even well developed nations like the U.S. produce some faulty statistics.&nbsp;For example, the U.S. Unemployment Rate greatly understates the actual unemployment situation, and there is no significant movement toward improving this statistic.&nbsp;The point here is not to belittle the U.S.&nbsp;The point is to get people to view China&rsquo;s statistical issues, where such statistical issues actually do exist, in proper context.)</font></div><div>&nbsp;<br><strong><u>NBS:<br><br></u></strong></div><div><u><a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/newsandcomingevents/t20110222_402704540.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font>Sales Price of Residential Buildings in 70 Large and Medium-Sized Cities in January</font></a></u></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>New Housing Prices:</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>&ldquo;Comparing with the same month of last year, the sales price of 68 cities in 70 large and medium-sized cities went up, that of 2 cities went down. Of the total, that of 10 cities grew more than 10%.&rdquo;</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>Existing Housing Prices:</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>&ldquo;The sales price of 65 cities in 70 large and medium-sized cities went up, that of 5 cities declined. Of which, 6 cities rose above 10% comparing with the same month last year.&rdquo;</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>There is no mention of an inflation adjustment in regard to these statistics.&nbsp;They appear to be unadjusted for inflation.&nbsp;Also, in viewing these statistics, it is important to keep in mind that sales of new homes far outnumber sales of existing homes in China.</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>The IMF Working Paper named six specific markets about which there was a concern&mdash;Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Beijing luxury, and Nanjing luxury.&nbsp;In this most-recent NBS data, Beijing had a general (not just luxury) year-over-year new housing price increase of 6.8%.&nbsp;All of the other market-of-concern cities had year-over-year housing price increases of less than 6.8%.</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>China has a housing price bubble forming in certain markets; and those forming bubbles are in the process of being combated by the Chinese government.&nbsp;In the last year, China has taken numerous steps to address, or that will serve to address, the forming bubbles.&nbsp;These steps included:</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><ul><li><font>Raising down payment requirements.</font></li><li><font>Limiting purchases of first, second, and third homes.</font></li><li><font>Introducing trial property taxes in Shanghai and Chongqing that can serve as a model for a wider introduction of property taxes.</font></li><li><font>Raising bank reserve requirements eight times.</font></li><li><font>Raising the benchmark interest rate three times.</font></li><li><font>Increasing the foreign exchange rate value of the Yuan on multiple occasions.</font></li></ul><div>&nbsp;</div><div><span>Additionally:&nbsp;&ldquo;China will build 10 million affordable homes in 2011, as part of a plan to build 36 million properties for low-income families during the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015).&nbsp;The total investment this year will be 1.3 trillion Yuan ($196.9 billion), said Qi Ji, vice-minister of housing and urban-rural development...&nbsp;&lsquo;The government will provide affordable housing projects with land for free, which we didn't include in the costs&rsquo;, said Qi.&rdquo;&nbsp;&ldquo;Qi said the government will provide 500 billion Yuan for the investment and the rest will be raised from the markets by non-governmental organizations.&rdquo;&nbsp;</span><span>&ldquo;</span><span>Construction of 5.9 million government-subsidized homes began in 2010, and 3.7 million have been finished, according to the ministry.&rdquo;&nbsp;(</span><a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011npc/2011-03/09/content_12143170.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span>Source</span></a><span>)</span></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>This will also serve to hold down or reduce housing prices in China.</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><b><font>There are other factors in play here as well.</font></b></div><div>&nbsp;</div><ul><li><font>There are limited other-than-housing investment options in China.&nbsp;Investment options for Chinese citizens are slowly increasing over time, so this issue is in the process of being slowly addressed.</font></li><li><font>Chinese citizens have a high savings rate and are less prone to spend.&nbsp;(Investing in a home is a form of saving.)&nbsp;This will become less true as China strengthens its social safety net, which it plans to do, and encourages more consumption, which it has already begun to do.</font></li><li><font>Incomes are increasing more in China.&nbsp;Per a February 28, 2011 </font><a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/enGliSH/newsandcomingevents/t20110228_402705764.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font>report</font></a><font> from the NBS:&nbsp;&ldquo;<span>In 2010, the annual per capita net income of rural households was 5,919 Yuan, or a real increase of 10.9% over the previous year when the factors of price increase were deducted. &nbsp;The annual per capita <i>disposable</i> income of urban households was 19,109 Yuan, or a real increase of 7.8%.&rdquo;&nbsp;From 2005 to 2010, price-factor-adjusted per capita <i>disposable</i> urban income rose at a rate of 9.7% per annum.&nbsp;(</span></font><a href="http://english.sina.com/business/2011/0307/363036.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font>Source</font></span></a><font><span>)&nbsp;The rising incomes serve to make higher housing prices more affordable.</span></font></li><li><font>The availability of mortgage financing is increasing.&nbsp;Medium and long-term, if not short-term, this trend should continue; and it should continue to exert upward pressure on housing prices.</font></li></ul><div>&nbsp;</div><div><b><font>What is the extent of China&rsquo;s and the world&rsquo;s financial exposure?</font></b></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>It appears that China&rsquo;s forming housing price bubble in certain markets is going to be eased or smacked down, versus bursting.&nbsp;China has been taking quality proactive measured steps to address the housing price situation for almost a year now.&nbsp;Also, China has a history of successfully correcting housing price misalignments.</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>The extent of potential harm is not as great as many people fear.&nbsp;Two reasons for this are:</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><ol><li><font>Down payment requirements in China are high.&nbsp;The first home down payment rate is now 30%.&nbsp;The second home down payment rate is now 60%.&nbsp;(About a year ago, these figures were 20% and 40% respectively.)</font></li><li><font>There are little or no associated derivatives.</font></li></ol><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>On the concerning side, local Chinese governments depend on property sales for some of their revenues.&nbsp;Some of these property sales are for commercial, versus residential, development though.</font></div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><font>Per the IMF working paper, &ldquo;real estate investment now accounts for&hellip;around 9 percent of (China&rsquo;s) GDP&rdquo;.&nbsp;This 9% figure should include both residential and non-residential real estate investment.&nbsp;A turndown in housing sales and prices in certain Chinese markets will only be detrimental to a limited extent.</font></div>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/China and China-Related Investments">China and China-Related Investments</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/Residential Real Estate and Related Investments">Residential Real Estate and Related Investments</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Deconstructing the China Construction Myth</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/702244-kurt-shrout/150323-deconstructing-the-china-construction-myth?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">150323</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p><span><font size="3"><font>(I finished researching and wrote this article last weekend.<span>&nbsp; </span>It was not published by Seeking Alpha.<span>&nbsp; </span>For multiple reasons, I am not going to revise it and resubmit it for publication.<span>&nbsp; </span>I hope some of you find it useful and/or enjoyable.)</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><b><span><font>Preamble</font></span></b></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font><font size="3">In the last year or so, there have been many written articles, video segments, et cetera, suggesting that the Chinese economy is headed for a big fall.<span>&nbsp; </span>These articles, segments and the like are often so filled with false and misleading information and flawed reasoning that it would be extremely time-consuming to address all of the errors within them.<span>&nbsp; </span>There are multiple reasons why there is now so much bad information regarding the upcoming fate of the Chinese economy.<span>&nbsp; </span>Some major reasons are as follows.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><ul><li><span><font><font size="3">More recently, more people have shorted certain Chinese and Chinese-related investments.<span>&nbsp; </span>They are concerned with influencing the price of these investments downward.<span>&nbsp; </span>They are not necessarily concerned with the integrity of the information used to do so.</font></font></span></li><li><span><font><font size="3">Some Americans simply want to push investment dollars toward the stocks of U.S.-based companies versus the stocks of China-based companies, even though the U.S.-based company stocks are often far pricier.<span>&nbsp; </span>They are not necessarily concerned with the integrity of the information used to do so.</font></font></span></li><li><span><font><font size="3">Due to (a) misdirected national pride, (b) an irrational dislike of any system with a &ldquo;communist&rdquo; label associated with it&mdash;versus a healthy skepticism of all like systems, and, on occasion, (c) racial prejudice, some Americans simply want it to be true that China is headed for a big fall soon.<span>&nbsp; </span>They are attempting to justify what they want to be true.<span>&nbsp; </span>This is different than seeking what is true.</font></font></span></li><li><span><font size="3"><font>More and more in America, objective journalism, and the fact checking, et cetera, associated with it, has taken a backseat to what are, actually, advocacy pieces.</font></font></span></li></ul><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>In a challenging communication environment like this, how do you get the information you need or want regarding the likely future of the Chinese economy to facilitate your investment decisions?<span>&nbsp; </span>Two good rules to follow are these.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><span><font size="3">1)</font><span>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><font size="3"><font><b><span>Evaluate the source.</span></b><span><span>&nbsp; </span>The source should not be strongly motivated to mislead you in one direction or the other, and they should not have a track record of providing misleading information.<span>&nbsp; </span>Also, they should be well-qualified to write or speak regarding the specific matter.</span></font></font></p><p><span><span><font size="3">2)</font><span>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><b><span><font size="3"><font>Verify the accuracy of information.</font></font></span></b></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>Exercising these principles, I will address some questions regarding the future of the Chinese economy.<span>&nbsp; </span>I will begin in this article by addressing the China construction myth.</font></font></span></p><p><b><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></b></p><p><b><span><font>The China Construction Myth</font></span></b></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>The myth is that construction constitutes a massive portion of the Chinese economy, a far larger portion than is sustainable.<span>&nbsp; </span>Jim Chanos, president and founder of hedge fund Kynikos Associates, may be the greatest source of this myth.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">In a February 10, 2011 segment on CNBC&rsquo;s Squawk Box, Chanos claimed:<span>&nbsp; </span>&ldquo;Construction as a percent of the Chinese economy in 2010&hellip;it&rsquo;s 70%.&rdquo;<span>&nbsp; </span>(</font></span><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1788587758&amp;play=1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">Source</font></span></a><span><font size="3"><font>, beginning at the 6:09 mark.)<span>&nbsp; </span>With a small amount of economic knowledge and common sense, it is obvious that this statement cannot possibly be true; yet neither of the Squawk Box moderators involved in the conversation questioned Chanos&rsquo; statement.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>A simple &ldquo;gee, Jim, that can&rsquo;t be correct&rdquo; would have sufficed.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>Chanos made this same claim previously.<span>&nbsp; </span>The only difference is that, now, the percentage claimed is even higher. </font></font></span></p><p><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></p><p><font size="3"><font>Chanos isn&rsquo;t the only source of absurd misinformation on this topic.<span>&nbsp; </span></font></font><a href="http://www.economywatch.com/gdp/world-gdp/china.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font size="3">Here</font></a><font size="3"><font> is a website telling us that the &ldquo;<span>construction industry contributed 53.1 percent of (the) GDP of China in 2005&rdquo;.<span>&nbsp; </span>In the very next sentence, the website tells us that </span>&ldquo;<span>in 2004, (the) industrial sector comprised 52.9 percent of China's GDP&rdquo;.<span>&nbsp; </span>Since construction is a sub-component of the industrial sector, the website is called EconomyWatch, and, per EconomyWatch, &ldquo;</span><span>EconomyWatch.com is the largest online economics community in the world&rdquo;</span><span>, the author and/or editor should have enough knowledge to not continue to publish this clearly false construction industry statistic.</span></font></font></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>A more extensive Internet search reveals that industry (with construction as a subcomponent) contributed 53.1% of China&rsquo;s GDP in 2005.</font></font></span></p><p><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></p><p><b><span><font>The China Construction Reality</font></span></b></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, </font></span><a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">The World Factbook, China</font></span></a><span><font><font size="3">, GDP &ndash; Composition by Sector, 2010 Estimates:</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font><font size="3">Agriculture &mdash; 9.6%</font></font></span></p><p><span><font><font size="3">Industry &mdash; 46.8%</font></font></span></p><p><span><font><font size="3">Services &mdash;43.6%</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font><font size="3">These percentages are consistent with the non-estimate percentages for the years prior to 2010.<span>&nbsp; </span>As previously mentioned, construction is a subcomponent of Industry.<span>&nbsp; </span>Also, Industry includes many other things beyond construction&mdash;including the vast majority of China&rsquo;s exports.<span>&nbsp; </span>It is not vaguely possible for construction to be anywhere near 70% or 53.1% of China&rsquo;s GDP.</font></font></span></p><p><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></p><p><span><font size="3">On March 3, 2011, </font></span><a href="http://www.globalconstruction2020.com/about-us" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">Global Construction Perspectives</font></span></a><span><font size="3"> and </font></span><a href="http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/OE_About.aspx?Sec=AU_WhoWeAre" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">Oxford Economics</font></span></a><span><font size="3"> released a new report on global construction.<span>&nbsp; </span>This new report was sponsored by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).</font></span></p><p><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></p><p><a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/03/03/idINIndia-55293920110303?type=economicNews" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">Per Reuters on March 3, 2011</font></span></a><span><font><font size="3">:<span>&nbsp; </span>&ldquo;After overtaking the US as the biggest construction market in 2010, China's construction sector will more than double in size to $2.5 trillion by 2020, accounting for a fifth of world construction, PwC said, citing a report it sponsored.&rdquo;<span>&nbsp; </span>&ldquo;The construction sector worldwide currently accounts for more than 11 percent of global GDP and the report predicts that it will account for 13.2 percent of world GDP by 2020.&rdquo;</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><font><font size="3"><span>This indicates China&rsquo;s construction sector was sized at less than $1.25 trillion in 2010.<span>&nbsp; </span></span><span>Per The World Factbook,</span><span> China&rsquo;s estimated </span><span>2010 GDP was $5.745 trillion.<span>&nbsp; </span>Via the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, a $5.7 trillion estimate is obtained.<span>&nbsp; </span>This indicates that China&rsquo;s construction sector was less than 22% of China&rsquo;s 2010 GDP.</span></font></font></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">In May 2010, international business research company </font></span><a href="http://www.freedoniagroup.com/AboutUs.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">Freedonia</font></span></a><span><font><font size="3"><span>&nbsp; </span>described Chinese construction as a &ldquo;</font></font></span><a href="http://www.freedoniagroup.com/Industry.aspx?IndustryId=CHNR" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">7.8 trillion Yuan&hellip;industry</font></span></a><span><font><font size="3">&rdquo;.<span>&nbsp; </span>In May of 2010, the exchange rate was about 6.83 Yuan to one U.S. Dollar.<span>&nbsp; </span>Using this exchange rate, 7.8 trillion Yuan equals about $1.14 trillion.<span>&nbsp; </span>This indicates that China&rsquo;s construction sector was about 20% of China&rsquo;s 2010 GDP.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">According to a December 2010 International Monetary Fund Working Paper entitled &ldquo;</font></span><a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp10274.pdf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">Are House Prices Rising Too Fast in China?</font></span></a><font><font size="3"><span>&rdquo;</span><span>, </span><span>&ldquo;real estate investment now accounts for&hellip;around 9 percent of (China&rsquo;s) GDP&rdquo;.<span>&nbsp; </span>Real estate is a sizable subcomponent of construction.</span></font></font></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font><font size="3">There are some good reasons why China&rsquo;s percentage of GDP constituted by construction should be higher than that of the world as a whole.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><ul><li><span><font><font size="3">China is a developing nation.<span>&nbsp; </span>Developing nations need to build the infrastructure upon which they can become developed nations.<span>&nbsp; </span>One of the reasons for China&rsquo;s greater GDP growth rates in comparison to other developing nations is its better infrastructure.</font></font></span></li><li><span><font><font size="3">China&rsquo;s post-economic-crisis $586 billion stimulus package was, by far, mostly construction-oriented.<span>&nbsp; </span>This package significantly increased 2009 and 2010 construction spending.</font></font></span></li><li><span><font size="3"><font>A lot of Chinese housing from the past is of very poor quality.<span>&nbsp; </span>Residents of China have a very strong bias toward new, versus existing, housing.</font></font></span></li></ul><p><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></p><p><b><span><font>Conclusion</font></span></b></p><p><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></p><p><font size="3">Adjusting downward to eliminate the affect of the stimulus package, China&rsquo;s construction percentage of GDP appears to be about 18%, versus a world percentage of about 12%. Also, China is a developing nation and has a very strong bias toward new housing.<span>&nbsp; </span>When analysis is done and discussions take place involving whether China&rsquo;s construction spending is too great, it should occur in this kind of a context.<span>&nbsp; </span>Anyone stating figures like 70% or 53.1% of GDP for China&rsquo;s construction should be put on Ignore.<span>&nbsp; </span>You may not have a message board option which enables you to do this, but there is always the Ignore button in your head available for use.</font></p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Fri, 18 Mar 2011 21:33:28 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<p><span><font size="3"><font>(I finished researching and wrote this article last weekend.<span>&nbsp; </span>It was not published by Seeking Alpha.<span>&nbsp; </span>For multiple reasons, I am not going to revise it and resubmit it for publication.<span>&nbsp; </span>I hope some of you find it useful and/or enjoyable.)</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><b><span><font>Preamble</font></span></b></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font><font size="3">In the last year or so, there have been many written articles, video segments, et cetera, suggesting that the Chinese economy is headed for a big fall.<span>&nbsp; </span>These articles, segments and the like are often so filled with false and misleading information and flawed reasoning that it would be extremely time-consuming to address all of the errors within them.<span>&nbsp; </span>There are multiple reasons why there is now so much bad information regarding the upcoming fate of the Chinese economy.<span>&nbsp; </span>Some major reasons are as follows.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><ul><li><span><font><font size="3">More recently, more people have shorted certain Chinese and Chinese-related investments.<span>&nbsp; </span>They are concerned with influencing the price of these investments downward.<span>&nbsp; </span>They are not necessarily concerned with the integrity of the information used to do so.</font></font></span></li><li><span><font><font size="3">Some Americans simply want to push investment dollars toward the stocks of U.S.-based companies versus the stocks of China-based companies, even though the U.S.-based company stocks are often far pricier.<span>&nbsp; </span>They are not necessarily concerned with the integrity of the information used to do so.</font></font></span></li><li><span><font><font size="3">Due to (a) misdirected national pride, (b) an irrational dislike of any system with a &ldquo;communist&rdquo; label associated with it&mdash;versus a healthy skepticism of all like systems, and, on occasion, (c) racial prejudice, some Americans simply want it to be true that China is headed for a big fall soon.<span>&nbsp; </span>They are attempting to justify what they want to be true.<span>&nbsp; </span>This is different than seeking what is true.</font></font></span></li><li><span><font size="3"><font>More and more in America, objective journalism, and the fact checking, et cetera, associated with it, has taken a backseat to what are, actually, advocacy pieces.</font></font></span></li></ul><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>In a challenging communication environment like this, how do you get the information you need or want regarding the likely future of the Chinese economy to facilitate your investment decisions?<span>&nbsp; </span>Two good rules to follow are these.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><span><font size="3">1)</font><span>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><font size="3"><font><b><span>Evaluate the source.</span></b><span><span>&nbsp; </span>The source should not be strongly motivated to mislead you in one direction or the other, and they should not have a track record of providing misleading information.<span>&nbsp; </span>Also, they should be well-qualified to write or speak regarding the specific matter.</span></font></font></p><p><span><span><font size="3">2)</font><span>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span><b><span><font size="3"><font>Verify the accuracy of information.</font></font></span></b></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>Exercising these principles, I will address some questions regarding the future of the Chinese economy.<span>&nbsp; </span>I will begin in this article by addressing the China construction myth.</font></font></span></p><p><b><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></b></p><p><b><span><font>The China Construction Myth</font></span></b></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>The myth is that construction constitutes a massive portion of the Chinese economy, a far larger portion than is sustainable.<span>&nbsp; </span>Jim Chanos, president and founder of hedge fund Kynikos Associates, may be the greatest source of this myth.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">In a February 10, 2011 segment on CNBC&rsquo;s Squawk Box, Chanos claimed:<span>&nbsp; </span>&ldquo;Construction as a percent of the Chinese economy in 2010&hellip;it&rsquo;s 70%.&rdquo;<span>&nbsp; </span>(</font></span><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1788587758&amp;play=1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">Source</font></span></a><span><font size="3"><font>, beginning at the 6:09 mark.)<span>&nbsp; </span>With a small amount of economic knowledge and common sense, it is obvious that this statement cannot possibly be true; yet neither of the Squawk Box moderators involved in the conversation questioned Chanos&rsquo; statement.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>A simple &ldquo;gee, Jim, that can&rsquo;t be correct&rdquo; would have sufficed.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>Chanos made this same claim previously.<span>&nbsp; </span>The only difference is that, now, the percentage claimed is even higher. </font></font></span></p><p><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></p><p><font size="3"><font>Chanos isn&rsquo;t the only source of absurd misinformation on this topic.<span>&nbsp; </span></font></font><a href="http://www.economywatch.com/gdp/world-gdp/china.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font size="3">Here</font></a><font size="3"><font> is a website telling us that the &ldquo;<span>construction industry contributed 53.1 percent of (the) GDP of China in 2005&rdquo;.<span>&nbsp; </span>In the very next sentence, the website tells us that </span>&ldquo;<span>in 2004, (the) industrial sector comprised 52.9 percent of China's GDP&rdquo;.<span>&nbsp; </span>Since construction is a sub-component of the industrial sector, the website is called EconomyWatch, and, per EconomyWatch, &ldquo;</span><span>EconomyWatch.com is the largest online economics community in the world&rdquo;</span><span>, the author and/or editor should have enough knowledge to not continue to publish this clearly false construction industry statistic.</span></font></font></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>A more extensive Internet search reveals that industry (with construction as a subcomponent) contributed 53.1% of China&rsquo;s GDP in 2005.</font></font></span></p><p><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></p><p><b><span><font>The China Construction Reality</font></span></b></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, </font></span><a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">The World Factbook, China</font></span></a><span><font><font size="3">, GDP &ndash; Composition by Sector, 2010 Estimates:</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font><font size="3">Agriculture &mdash; 9.6%</font></font></span></p><p><span><font><font size="3">Industry &mdash; 46.8%</font></font></span></p><p><span><font><font size="3">Services &mdash;43.6%</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font><font size="3">These percentages are consistent with the non-estimate percentages for the years prior to 2010.<span>&nbsp; </span>As previously mentioned, construction is a subcomponent of Industry.<span>&nbsp; </span>Also, Industry includes many other things beyond construction&mdash;including the vast majority of China&rsquo;s exports.<span>&nbsp; </span>It is not vaguely possible for construction to be anywhere near 70% or 53.1% of China&rsquo;s GDP.</font></font></span></p><p><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></p><p><span><font size="3">On March 3, 2011, </font></span><a href="http://www.globalconstruction2020.com/about-us" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">Global Construction Perspectives</font></span></a><span><font size="3"> and </font></span><a href="http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/OE_About.aspx?Sec=AU_WhoWeAre" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">Oxford Economics</font></span></a><span><font size="3"> released a new report on global construction.<span>&nbsp; </span>This new report was sponsored by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).</font></span></p><p><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></p><p><a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/03/03/idINIndia-55293920110303?type=economicNews" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">Per Reuters on March 3, 2011</font></span></a><span><font><font size="3">:<span>&nbsp; </span>&ldquo;After overtaking the US as the biggest construction market in 2010, China's construction sector will more than double in size to $2.5 trillion by 2020, accounting for a fifth of world construction, PwC said, citing a report it sponsored.&rdquo;<span>&nbsp; </span>&ldquo;The construction sector worldwide currently accounts for more than 11 percent of global GDP and the report predicts that it will account for 13.2 percent of world GDP by 2020.&rdquo;</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><font><font size="3"><span>This indicates China&rsquo;s construction sector was sized at less than $1.25 trillion in 2010.<span>&nbsp; </span></span><span>Per The World Factbook,</span><span> China&rsquo;s estimated </span><span>2010 GDP was $5.745 trillion.<span>&nbsp; </span>Via the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, a $5.7 trillion estimate is obtained.<span>&nbsp; </span>This indicates that China&rsquo;s construction sector was less than 22% of China&rsquo;s 2010 GDP.</span></font></font></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">In May 2010, international business research company </font></span><a href="http://www.freedoniagroup.com/AboutUs.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">Freedonia</font></span></a><span><font><font size="3"><span>&nbsp; </span>described Chinese construction as a &ldquo;</font></font></span><a href="http://www.freedoniagroup.com/Industry.aspx?IndustryId=CHNR" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">7.8 trillion Yuan&hellip;industry</font></span></a><span><font><font size="3">&rdquo;.<span>&nbsp; </span>In May of 2010, the exchange rate was about 6.83 Yuan to one U.S. Dollar.<span>&nbsp; </span>Using this exchange rate, 7.8 trillion Yuan equals about $1.14 trillion.<span>&nbsp; </span>This indicates that China&rsquo;s construction sector was about 20% of China&rsquo;s 2010 GDP.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">According to a December 2010 International Monetary Fund Working Paper entitled &ldquo;</font></span><a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp10274.pdf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">Are House Prices Rising Too Fast in China?</font></span></a><font><font size="3"><span>&rdquo;</span><span>, </span><span>&ldquo;real estate investment now accounts for&hellip;around 9 percent of (China&rsquo;s) GDP&rdquo;.<span>&nbsp; </span>Real estate is a sizable subcomponent of construction.</span></font></font></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><p><span><font><font size="3">There are some good reasons why China&rsquo;s percentage of GDP constituted by construction should be higher than that of the world as a whole.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></span></p><ul><li><span><font><font size="3">China is a developing nation.<span>&nbsp; </span>Developing nations need to build the infrastructure upon which they can become developed nations.<span>&nbsp; </span>One of the reasons for China&rsquo;s greater GDP growth rates in comparison to other developing nations is its better infrastructure.</font></font></span></li><li><span><font><font size="3">China&rsquo;s post-economic-crisis $586 billion stimulus package was, by far, mostly construction-oriented.<span>&nbsp; </span>This package significantly increased 2009 and 2010 construction spending.</font></font></span></li><li><span><font size="3"><font>A lot of Chinese housing from the past is of very poor quality.<span>&nbsp; </span>Residents of China have a very strong bias toward new, versus existing, housing.</font></font></span></li></ul><p><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></p><p><b><span><font>Conclusion</font></span></b></p><p><font size="3">&nbsp;</font></p><p><font size="3">Adjusting downward to eliminate the affect of the stimulus package, China&rsquo;s construction percentage of GDP appears to be about 18%, versus a world percentage of about 12%. Also, China is a developing nation and has a very strong bias toward new housing.<span>&nbsp; </span>When analysis is done and discussions take place involving whether China&rsquo;s construction spending is too great, it should occur in this kind of a context.<span>&nbsp; </span>Anyone stating figures like 70% or 53.1% of GDP for China&rsquo;s construction should be put on Ignore.<span>&nbsp; </span>You may not have a message board option which enables you to do this, but there is always the Ignore button in your head available for use.</font></p>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/China and China-Related Investments">China and China-Related Investments</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/Construction and Construction-Related Investments">Construction and Construction-Related Investments</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>U.S.-Listed Chinese Stocks - Gravely Mistreated &amp; Far Undervalued (Part 2)</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/702244-kurt-shrout/136965-u-s-listed-chinese-stocks-gravely-mistreated-far-undervalued-part-2?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">136965</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p><font size="3">A vast array of communication tactics have been used to unfairly characterize the U.S.-listed Chinese stock sector and the stocks within it.<span>&nbsp; </span>Below are some of the more prevalent tactics.</font></p><p><font size="3">(1) Comparing numbers reported to an SAIC entity(s) in China with SEC financial reporting and claiming that, since the numbers don&rsquo;t match, the company must have exaggerated its revenue or the like.</font></p><p><font><font size="3">In brief, it has become fairly common knowledge among investors in the sector that, for many reasons, these numbers shouldn&rsquo;t match, and, sometimes, they should not match by a lot.<span>&nbsp; </span>(For more information:<span>&nbsp; </span></font></font><a href="http://china.fixyou.co.uk/2010/07/on-saic-and-sec-filings.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font size="3">http://china.fixyou.co.uk/2010/07/on-saic-and-sec-filings.html</font></a><font><font size="3">)<span>&nbsp; </span>If the numbers don&rsquo;t mismatch by enough to sufficiently scare investors, a short-side communicator can simply pretend that the numbers for one or a limited number of a company&rsquo;s subsidiaries in China should match the SEC numbers for the company as a whole.<span>&nbsp; </span>In defending itself after being unfairly criticized by Muddy Waters, Orient Paper (ONP) explained that a company Muddy Waters referenced in its report in regard to SAIC numbers was not its actual subsidiary, but instead a company with a similar name.<span><span>&nbsp; </span>(Source:<span>&nbsp; </span><a href="http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Orient+Paper+%28ONP%29+Responds+to+Report+That+Muddy+Waters+Has+a+Short+Position+in+Companys+Stock/5771103.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Orient+Paper+%28ONP%29+Responds+to+Report+That+Muddy+Waters+Has+a+Short+Position+in+Companys+Stock/5771103.html</a>)<span>&nbsp; </span>(Muddy Waters did not issue a related retraction.)<span>&nbsp; </span>Of course, a short-side communicator does not have to get this fancy, they can suffice with &ldquo;counterfeiting SAIC documents&rdquo;, as John Bird (aka Waldo Mushman) was said to have done.</span></font></font></p><p><font size="3">(2) <span>&nbsp;</span>Claiming that &ldquo;reverse merger&rdquo; means &ldquo;poorly-vetted&rdquo; and, therefore, too risky.</font></p><p><font><font size="3">This was a significant issue before &ldquo;<span>U.S. regulators tightened the rules for reverse mergers in 2005, forcing companies to disclose more information after merging into shell companies.&rdquo;</span><span>&nbsp; </span>(Source:<span>&nbsp; </span></font></font><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/04/15/us-chinesereversemergers-analysis-idUSTRE63E4TW20100415?pageNumber=1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font size="3">http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/04/15/us-chinesereversemergers-analysis-idUSTRE63E4TW20100415?pageNumber=1</font></a><font size="3"><font>)<span>&nbsp; </span>Also, once a company does a public shares offering or lists on or uplists to the AMEX, NYSE, or NASDAQ, this becomes even more of a non-issue.<span>&nbsp; </span>The company did nothing wrong in using the reverse merger process to establish itself as a U.S.-listed stock.<span>&nbsp; </span>In fact, the process should have enabled them to list more quickly and may have enabled them to do so more inexpensively.<span>&nbsp; </span>Companies from many countries, including the U.S., use this technique to list.<span>&nbsp; </span>In fact, <em><span>Berkshire Hathaway and The New York Stock Exchange &ldquo;</span></em><span><span>became publicly held corporations by virtue of a reverse merger&rdquo;</span></span></font><em><span>.<span>&nbsp; </span>(Source:<span>&nbsp; </span><a href="http://www.halter.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span>http://www.halter.com/</span></a>)<span>&nbsp; </span>Short-side communicators like to make it seem like &ldquo;reverse merger&rdquo; is a dirty little backdoor that only Chinese companies use to list in the U.S.<span>&nbsp; </span>As you can see, this is in no way true.</span></em></font></p><p><font size="3">(3)<span>&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Claiming that the Chinese companies that listed in the U.S. listed in the U.S. because they could not list in China due to inferiority.</font></p><p><font><font size="3">Actually, the opposite is often true.<span>&nbsp; </span>Some of the best Chinese enterprises have listed in the U.S.<span>&nbsp; </span>At least once, China simply did not approve any new stock listings for a while.<span>&nbsp; </span>China did not launch a growth enterprise market (GEM) until October of 2009.<span>&nbsp; </span>Many of the Chinese companies listed in the U.S. listed in the U.S. before October of 2009.<span>&nbsp; </span>Even now that China has a GEM, an investment can be a great opportunity and not meet the listing standards for the Chinese exchanges.<span>&nbsp; </span>(Source:<span>&nbsp; </span></font></font><a href="http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_48/b4205059211793.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font size="3">http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_48/b4205059211793.htm</font></a><font size="3">)<span>&nbsp; </span>Also, China has overall bank lending limits and tight controls on international currency flows.<span>&nbsp; </span>This further serves to push good companies toward the U.S. markets.<br></font><font size="3"><br>(4) Claiming that there is more fraud in China.</font></p><p><font size="3"><font>There may be more fraud, about the same amount of fraud, or less fraud in China.<span>&nbsp; </span>If you don&rsquo;t believe this, it may be because you don&rsquo;t know, or won&rsquo;t admit to yourself, enough of the truth about the U.S. and like countries.<span>&nbsp; </span>There are many ways in which people try to get you to believe that there is more fraud in China.<span>&nbsp; </span>One I have been hearing recently is that the Chinese companies have two sets of books, one that they show to the tax authorities and one with the real numbers thereon.<span>&nbsp; </span>This may have been the case when these companies were smaller.<span>&nbsp; </span>The more they grew, the less likely it became that this was the case.<span>&nbsp; </span>How do I know?<span>&nbsp; </span>Because this is how it is in many countries, including the U.S.<span>&nbsp; </span>In fact, I worked in a couple of small U.S. businesses.<span>&nbsp; </span>For one, I do not know whether they had one or two sets of books.<span>&nbsp; </span>For the other, I know for certain that they had two sets of books, specifically to avoid paying any taxes.<span>&nbsp; </span>If you need or desire further enlightenment, here is a link to an article regarding Canada that will help.<span>&nbsp; </span>(Link:<span>&nbsp; </span></font></font><a href="http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=aba83332-d0ee-4887-b37c-8dbbfbc44aa9&amp;p=2" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font size="3">http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=aba83332-d0ee-4887-b37c-8dbbfbc44aa9&amp;p=2</font></a><font size="3">)</font></p><p><font size="3">(5)<span>&nbsp; </span>Inundating the stock message boards with negative posts.</font></p><p><font size="3">Yes, stock and stock service pumpers are also an issue on the stock message boards; but this problem is not nearly as severe as the numerous unfair negative posts that are appearing.<span>&nbsp; </span>It has become clear to many of us that many posters have been paid to cry &ldquo;fraud&rdquo; and the like over and over again regardless of the facts and sound logic.<span>&nbsp; </span>Not all of the paid or other negative posters are this obvious.<span>&nbsp; </span>There are many different unethical communication strategies used.<span>&nbsp; </span>One is to pretend that you are long on the stock (The purpose of this part is of the strategy is to get people to like and trust you.); but then you say you sold because, now, you have learned more.<span>&nbsp; </span>Then, you claim you are not short on the stock (The purpose of this part of the strategy is to get people to continue to like and trust you.); but you participate on the message board for months more, even though you supposedly hold no position in the stock.<span>&nbsp; </span>While participating, you support many, if not all, negative comments made regarding the stock, and make many negative comments of your own&mdash;regardless of whether these comments are supported by the facts and sound logic.<span>&nbsp; </span>It is easy to tell that these people are short on the stock and/or being paid to harm the stock price for two reasons.<span>&nbsp; </span>(1) They supposedly went long with what was, apparently, inadequate due diligence; but now we are supposed respect what they have to say.<span>&nbsp; </span>(2) Far more importantly, regardless of what they say, they would not still be participating on the message board if they did not have a hidden, illicit agenda.</font></p><p><font size="3">(6)<span>&nbsp; </span>Saying that &ldquo;if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is&rdquo; when this saying is not applicable.</font></p><p><font size="3">In the two and a half years that I have focused on this stock segment, I haven&rsquo;t heard or seen any of these companies make a claim that was &ldquo;too good to be true&rdquo; (although I have heard and seen them make some claims that weren&rsquo;t exactly true, just like other companies from around the world, including the U.S., do).<span>&nbsp; </span>I <i>have</i> seen them grow at rates that only the best young companies from around the world grow at, et cetera.<span>&nbsp; </span>It&rsquo;s not &ldquo;too good to be true&rdquo; if it has been done and is being done by many other companies.<span>&nbsp; </span>Young, successful companies do, sometimes, double, triple, quadruple, or more their revenues.<span>&nbsp; </span>The idea behind this tactic is to get less-than-fully-knowledgeable investors to not buy or sell because, for instance, they don&rsquo;t understand that, given the company&rsquo;s specific circumstances, their margins can or should be that high (e.g., Harbin Electric [HRBN]) or that research from around the world performed over the course of decades supports the efficacy of the company&rsquo;s products (e.g., Yongye International [YONG]).<span>&nbsp; </span>Be wary; but be aware that Chinese companies, as well as companies from other parts of the world, sometimes make things better or do things better than companies in the U.S.</font></p><p><font size="3">(7) Presenting people with a (sometimes very long) string of misinformation.<span>&nbsp; </span>If/when they finish debunking the misinformation, you can simply present them with more misinformation in response.<span>&nbsp; </span>In so doing, you rarely, if ever, admit that any of your information was debunked.</font></p><p><font size="3">This can be done via a single very lengthy report or a string of smaller communications, like message board messages.<span>&nbsp; </span>It takes relatively little effort to publish misinformation.<span>&nbsp; </span>It can take a lot of effort to properly research and expertly word things.<span>&nbsp; </span>The point here is to try to get you to say or think something like:<span>&nbsp; </span>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s taking too much time and effort to make certain that this investment is safe enough, so I am simply going to pass on buying it.&rdquo; <span>&nbsp;</span>Or: <span>&nbsp;</span>&ldquo;Gee, I know that&rsquo;s false and that&rsquo;s false; but I am not certain about that.<span>&nbsp; </span>I better just sell.&rdquo;<span>&nbsp; </span>A trick you can use to overcome this technique is this:<span>&nbsp; </span>If, during the communication(s), the communicator displays a pattern whereby you know that they know, or very well should know, that multiple pieces of information they are presenting are false or misleading, view the remainder of what has been or will be communicated as not-necessary-to-view-or-hear.<span>&nbsp; </span>To simplify, if someone lied, grossly exaggerated, or misrepresented two or three times, it&rsquo;s not important for you to read their next point. <span>&nbsp;</span>Even if a following or preceding point(s) does not seem to be false or misleading, assume that it is somehow.<span>&nbsp; </span>At best it&rsquo;s a truth being used to get you to believe a falsehood.<span>&nbsp; </span>If you are going to spend any of your time on this stuff, spend it debunking and, ideally, making it clear that the author cannot be trusted.</font></p><p><font><font size="3">If/when any of the many short-side people who lie, exaggerate, or misrepresent respond to this article, I may simply ignore them.<span>&nbsp; </span>It is only worth spending a limited amount of time responding to falsehood after falsehood after falsehood.<span>&nbsp; </span>If, on the other hand, you are not one of these people, and you think I was significantly inaccurate with something I wrote above, you think that something I wrote above should be enhanced, or the like, please do point this out to me.</font></font></p><p><span><font size="3">Disclosures:<span>&nbsp; </span>I am long YONG and HRBN.<span>&nbsp; </span>Otherwise, I do not have a position regarding any of the companies mentioned in this article.</font></span></p><br><br><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I am long <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/yong" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">YONG</a>, <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/hrbn" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">HRBN</a>.<br>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Tue, 08 Feb 2011 15:26:43 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<p><font size="3">A vast array of communication tactics have been used to unfairly characterize the U.S.-listed Chinese stock sector and the stocks within it.<span>&nbsp; </span>Below are some of the more prevalent tactics.</font></p><p><font size="3">(1) Comparing numbers reported to an SAIC entity(s) in China with SEC financial reporting and claiming that, since the numbers don&rsquo;t match, the company must have exaggerated its revenue or the like.</font></p><p><font><font size="3">In brief, it has become fairly common knowledge among investors in the sector that, for many reasons, these numbers shouldn&rsquo;t match, and, sometimes, they should not match by a lot.<span>&nbsp; </span>(For more information:<span>&nbsp; </span></font></font><a href="http://china.fixyou.co.uk/2010/07/on-saic-and-sec-filings.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font size="3">http://china.fixyou.co.uk/2010/07/on-saic-and-sec-filings.html</font></a><font><font size="3">)<span>&nbsp; </span>If the numbers don&rsquo;t mismatch by enough to sufficiently scare investors, a short-side communicator can simply pretend that the numbers for one or a limited number of a company&rsquo;s subsidiaries in China should match the SEC numbers for the company as a whole.<span>&nbsp; </span>In defending itself after being unfairly criticized by Muddy Waters, Orient Paper (ONP) explained that a company Muddy Waters referenced in its report in regard to SAIC numbers was not its actual subsidiary, but instead a company with a similar name.<span><span>&nbsp; </span>(Source:<span>&nbsp; </span><a href="http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Orient+Paper+%28ONP%29+Responds+to+Report+That+Muddy+Waters+Has+a+Short+Position+in+Companys+Stock/5771103.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Orient+Paper+%28ONP%29+Responds+to+Report+That+Muddy+Waters+Has+a+Short+Position+in+Companys+Stock/5771103.html</a>)<span>&nbsp; </span>(Muddy Waters did not issue a related retraction.)<span>&nbsp; </span>Of course, a short-side communicator does not have to get this fancy, they can suffice with &ldquo;counterfeiting SAIC documents&rdquo;, as John Bird (aka Waldo Mushman) was said to have done.</span></font></font></p><p><font size="3">(2) <span>&nbsp;</span>Claiming that &ldquo;reverse merger&rdquo; means &ldquo;poorly-vetted&rdquo; and, therefore, too risky.</font></p><p><font><font size="3">This was a significant issue before &ldquo;<span>U.S. regulators tightened the rules for reverse mergers in 2005, forcing companies to disclose more information after merging into shell companies.&rdquo;</span><span>&nbsp; </span>(Source:<span>&nbsp; </span></font></font><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/04/15/us-chinesereversemergers-analysis-idUSTRE63E4TW20100415?pageNumber=1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font size="3">http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/04/15/us-chinesereversemergers-analysis-idUSTRE63E4TW20100415?pageNumber=1</font></a><font size="3"><font>)<span>&nbsp; </span>Also, once a company does a public shares offering or lists on or uplists to the AMEX, NYSE, or NASDAQ, this becomes even more of a non-issue.<span>&nbsp; </span>The company did nothing wrong in using the reverse merger process to establish itself as a U.S.-listed stock.<span>&nbsp; </span>In fact, the process should have enabled them to list more quickly and may have enabled them to do so more inexpensively.<span>&nbsp; </span>Companies from many countries, including the U.S., use this technique to list.<span>&nbsp; </span>In fact, <em><span>Berkshire Hathaway and The New York Stock Exchange &ldquo;</span></em><span><span>became publicly held corporations by virtue of a reverse merger&rdquo;</span></span></font><em><span>.<span>&nbsp; </span>(Source:<span>&nbsp; </span><a href="http://www.halter.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span>http://www.halter.com/</span></a>)<span>&nbsp; </span>Short-side communicators like to make it seem like &ldquo;reverse merger&rdquo; is a dirty little backdoor that only Chinese companies use to list in the U.S.<span>&nbsp; </span>As you can see, this is in no way true.</span></em></font></p><p><font size="3">(3)<span>&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>Claiming that the Chinese companies that listed in the U.S. listed in the U.S. because they could not list in China due to inferiority.</font></p><p><font><font size="3">Actually, the opposite is often true.<span>&nbsp; </span>Some of the best Chinese enterprises have listed in the U.S.<span>&nbsp; </span>At least once, China simply did not approve any new stock listings for a while.<span>&nbsp; </span>China did not launch a growth enterprise market (GEM) until October of 2009.<span>&nbsp; </span>Many of the Chinese companies listed in the U.S. listed in the U.S. before October of 2009.<span>&nbsp; </span>Even now that China has a GEM, an investment can be a great opportunity and not meet the listing standards for the Chinese exchanges.<span>&nbsp; </span>(Source:<span>&nbsp; </span></font></font><a href="http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_48/b4205059211793.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font size="3">http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_48/b4205059211793.htm</font></a><font size="3">)<span>&nbsp; </span>Also, China has overall bank lending limits and tight controls on international currency flows.<span>&nbsp; </span>This further serves to push good companies toward the U.S. markets.<br></font><font size="3"><br>(4) Claiming that there is more fraud in China.</font></p><p><font size="3"><font>There may be more fraud, about the same amount of fraud, or less fraud in China.<span>&nbsp; </span>If you don&rsquo;t believe this, it may be because you don&rsquo;t know, or won&rsquo;t admit to yourself, enough of the truth about the U.S. and like countries.<span>&nbsp; </span>There are many ways in which people try to get you to believe that there is more fraud in China.<span>&nbsp; </span>One I have been hearing recently is that the Chinese companies have two sets of books, one that they show to the tax authorities and one with the real numbers thereon.<span>&nbsp; </span>This may have been the case when these companies were smaller.<span>&nbsp; </span>The more they grew, the less likely it became that this was the case.<span>&nbsp; </span>How do I know?<span>&nbsp; </span>Because this is how it is in many countries, including the U.S.<span>&nbsp; </span>In fact, I worked in a couple of small U.S. businesses.<span>&nbsp; </span>For one, I do not know whether they had one or two sets of books.<span>&nbsp; </span>For the other, I know for certain that they had two sets of books, specifically to avoid paying any taxes.<span>&nbsp; </span>If you need or desire further enlightenment, here is a link to an article regarding Canada that will help.<span>&nbsp; </span>(Link:<span>&nbsp; </span></font></font><a href="http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=aba83332-d0ee-4887-b37c-8dbbfbc44aa9&amp;p=2" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font size="3">http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=aba83332-d0ee-4887-b37c-8dbbfbc44aa9&amp;p=2</font></a><font size="3">)</font></p><p><font size="3">(5)<span>&nbsp; </span>Inundating the stock message boards with negative posts.</font></p><p><font size="3">Yes, stock and stock service pumpers are also an issue on the stock message boards; but this problem is not nearly as severe as the numerous unfair negative posts that are appearing.<span>&nbsp; </span>It has become clear to many of us that many posters have been paid to cry &ldquo;fraud&rdquo; and the like over and over again regardless of the facts and sound logic.<span>&nbsp; </span>Not all of the paid or other negative posters are this obvious.<span>&nbsp; </span>There are many different unethical communication strategies used.<span>&nbsp; </span>One is to pretend that you are long on the stock (The purpose of this part is of the strategy is to get people to like and trust you.); but then you say you sold because, now, you have learned more.<span>&nbsp; </span>Then, you claim you are not short on the stock (The purpose of this part of the strategy is to get people to continue to like and trust you.); but you participate on the message board for months more, even though you supposedly hold no position in the stock.<span>&nbsp; </span>While participating, you support many, if not all, negative comments made regarding the stock, and make many negative comments of your own&mdash;regardless of whether these comments are supported by the facts and sound logic.<span>&nbsp; </span>It is easy to tell that these people are short on the stock and/or being paid to harm the stock price for two reasons.<span>&nbsp; </span>(1) They supposedly went long with what was, apparently, inadequate due diligence; but now we are supposed respect what they have to say.<span>&nbsp; </span>(2) Far more importantly, regardless of what they say, they would not still be participating on the message board if they did not have a hidden, illicit agenda.</font></p><p><font size="3">(6)<span>&nbsp; </span>Saying that &ldquo;if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is&rdquo; when this saying is not applicable.</font></p><p><font size="3">In the two and a half years that I have focused on this stock segment, I haven&rsquo;t heard or seen any of these companies make a claim that was &ldquo;too good to be true&rdquo; (although I have heard and seen them make some claims that weren&rsquo;t exactly true, just like other companies from around the world, including the U.S., do).<span>&nbsp; </span>I <i>have</i> seen them grow at rates that only the best young companies from around the world grow at, et cetera.<span>&nbsp; </span>It&rsquo;s not &ldquo;too good to be true&rdquo; if it has been done and is being done by many other companies.<span>&nbsp; </span>Young, successful companies do, sometimes, double, triple, quadruple, or more their revenues.<span>&nbsp; </span>The idea behind this tactic is to get less-than-fully-knowledgeable investors to not buy or sell because, for instance, they don&rsquo;t understand that, given the company&rsquo;s specific circumstances, their margins can or should be that high (e.g., Harbin Electric [HRBN]) or that research from around the world performed over the course of decades supports the efficacy of the company&rsquo;s products (e.g., Yongye International [YONG]).<span>&nbsp; </span>Be wary; but be aware that Chinese companies, as well as companies from other parts of the world, sometimes make things better or do things better than companies in the U.S.</font></p><p><font size="3">(7) Presenting people with a (sometimes very long) string of misinformation.<span>&nbsp; </span>If/when they finish debunking the misinformation, you can simply present them with more misinformation in response.<span>&nbsp; </span>In so doing, you rarely, if ever, admit that any of your information was debunked.</font></p><p><font size="3">This can be done via a single very lengthy report or a string of smaller communications, like message board messages.<span>&nbsp; </span>It takes relatively little effort to publish misinformation.<span>&nbsp; </span>It can take a lot of effort to properly research and expertly word things.<span>&nbsp; </span>The point here is to try to get you to say or think something like:<span>&nbsp; </span>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s taking too much time and effort to make certain that this investment is safe enough, so I am simply going to pass on buying it.&rdquo; <span>&nbsp;</span>Or: <span>&nbsp;</span>&ldquo;Gee, I know that&rsquo;s false and that&rsquo;s false; but I am not certain about that.<span>&nbsp; </span>I better just sell.&rdquo;<span>&nbsp; </span>A trick you can use to overcome this technique is this:<span>&nbsp; </span>If, during the communication(s), the communicator displays a pattern whereby you know that they know, or very well should know, that multiple pieces of information they are presenting are false or misleading, view the remainder of what has been or will be communicated as not-necessary-to-view-or-hear.<span>&nbsp; </span>To simplify, if someone lied, grossly exaggerated, or misrepresented two or three times, it&rsquo;s not important for you to read their next point. <span>&nbsp;</span>Even if a following or preceding point(s) does not seem to be false or misleading, assume that it is somehow.<span>&nbsp; </span>At best it&rsquo;s a truth being used to get you to believe a falsehood.<span>&nbsp; </span>If you are going to spend any of your time on this stuff, spend it debunking and, ideally, making it clear that the author cannot be trusted.</font></p><p><font><font size="3">If/when any of the many short-side people who lie, exaggerate, or misrepresent respond to this article, I may simply ignore them.<span>&nbsp; </span>It is only worth spending a limited amount of time responding to falsehood after falsehood after falsehood.<span>&nbsp; </span>If, on the other hand, you are not one of these people, and you think I was significantly inaccurate with something I wrote above, you think that something I wrote above should be enhanced, or the like, please do point this out to me.</font></font></p><p><span><font size="3">Disclosures:<span>&nbsp; </span>I am long YONG and HRBN.<span>&nbsp; </span>Otherwise, I do not have a position regarding any of the companies mentioned in this article.</font></span></p><br><br><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I am long <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/yong" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">YONG</a>, <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/hrbn" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">HRBN</a>.<br>]]>
      </description>
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    <item>
      <title>U.S.-Listed Chinese Stocks - Gravely Mistreated &amp; Far Undervalued (Part 1)</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/702244-kurt-shrout/136960-u-s-listed-chinese-stocks-gravely-mistreated-far-undervalued-part-1?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">136960</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p><span><font size="3"><font>Preamble:<span>&nbsp; </span>Despite the fact that Seeking Alpha has recently published many articles from short-side authors that were obviously biased and shoddily researched (and did a lot of unjustified damage to the portfolio value of long-side investors and some unjustified damage to the companies being unfairly criticized), they declined to publish this article&mdash;in its current state at least.<span>&nbsp; </span>I believe that Seeking Alpha, and/or its editors, are a part of the problem which I describe within this article under Part 1, point [4].<span>&nbsp; </span>In addition, I am concerned that people within Seeking Alpha and/or people affiliated with Seeking Alpha personnel may be shorting the stocks that are being unfairly criticized within published articles prior to article publication.<span>&nbsp; </span><span>&nbsp;</span>I am posting this article as an Instablog.<span>&nbsp; </span>If you have any suggestions as to another place(s), other than Seeking Alpha, where I can post this article, please share them with me.<span>&nbsp; </span>Also, I join with those who advise others to be very skeptical about the information published by Seeking Alpha, especially if the information is short-side stock information.</font></font></span><br><br><font size="3">More-and-more, we are seeing written articles, web blogs, message board postings, and television segments in which U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, especially the ones that came into being via a reverse merger, are characterized as far more risky and/or frauds.<span>&nbsp; </span>These characterizations have occurred ad nauseam.<span>&nbsp; </span>Sometimes these characterizations have been made regarding the stock segment as a whole, sometimes they have been made in regard to individual stocks within the segment, and sometimes they have been made in regard to the segment as a whole and an individual stock(s) in conjunction.</font></p><p><font size="3">In brief, these characterizations are almost entirely false.<span>&nbsp; </span>Like in any stock segment, occasionally, a stock like RINO International is found.<span>&nbsp; </span>(RINO International appears to have overstated their past revenue since two contracts for which they reported receiving revenue were never finalized.)<span>&nbsp; </span>Despite the very bright spotlight thrown on this stock segment for an extended period, there is not reliable evidence that these stocks are far riskier; and it is becoming clearer and clearer over time that, entirely or almost entirely, the underlying companies are not frauds.</font></p><p><font size="3">In fact, since the prices of these stocks have been beaten down to such a ridiculously low level based upon almost-entirely-false information, they represent a fantastic buying opportunity for individual investors.<span>&nbsp; </span>Normally, this kind of buying opportunity is limited to venture capitalists and the like.<span>&nbsp; </span>In this segment, individuals have a venture-capitalist-like opportunity.<span>&nbsp; </span>Like a venture capitalist, though, you need to do your due diligence to separate the truly great opportunities from the overstated opportunities and the occasional fraud.<span>&nbsp; </span>In this way, it is just like investing in U.S.-or-Western-European-based companies; but it has far greater upside potential.</font></p><p><font size="3">What has been happening is this:<span>&nbsp; </span>People know that they can easily make money in this segment by shorting the stocks and, then, often with or via collaborators, communicating a series of lies, exaggerations, and/or misrepresentations that will drag the stock price down.<span>&nbsp; </span>One of these many lies, exaggerations, and/or misrepresentations may hit on what proves to be, in part if not in whole, a true flaw regarding the investment.<span>&nbsp; </span>Almost always, they hit on nothing or nothing significant.<span>&nbsp; </span>It doesn&rsquo;t matter much, if at all, to the shorter if any of the lies, exaggerations, and/or misrepresentations hit.<span>&nbsp; </span>The stock price still goes down, at least for a while.</font></p><p><font size="3">Is this unethical?<span>&nbsp; </span>Yes, of course it is.<span>&nbsp; </span>Will this continue?<span>&nbsp; </span>Yes.<span>&nbsp; </span>How can it be stopped?<span>&nbsp; </span>Via multiple measures.</font></p><p><font size="3">(1) The impacted companies are just now starting to speak out well in response to these attacks.<span>&nbsp; </span>This trend must continue and strengthen.<span>&nbsp; </span>Generally, they should not be silent regarding any unfair criticisms that largely affect the stock price, even if the affect on the stock price is temporary.<span>&nbsp; </span>Also, if when a legitimate, significant question is raised that the company has not answered or answered well enough before, they should always answer the question publically.<span>&nbsp; </span>(A criticism can, potentially, be valid.)</font></p><p><font size="3">(2) The companies should always consider legal action as a potential course of responsive action.</font></p><p><font size="3">(3)<span>&nbsp; </span>U.S. regulatory authorities need to address the situation.<span>&nbsp; </span>It is an outright embarrassment that we have done nothing regarding the grave mistreatment of the companies in this stock sector.<span>&nbsp; </span>It is also rather humorous that we have done nothing, in the context of all the unfounded or exaggerated claims about how relatively untrustworthy these companies are because they are Chinese.<span>&nbsp; </span>It appears that they can&rsquo;t trust us, not the other way around.</font></p><p><font size="3"><font>(4) The more-reputable, and supposedly more-reputable, U.S. news sources should stop covering this story in a biased and/or unprofessional manner.<span>&nbsp; </span>Barron&rsquo;s and CNBC seem unlikely to do this.<span>&nbsp; </span>All of us who are knowledgeable regarding the news realm know that, often, what passes for news is simply a part of someone&rsquo;s and/or some institution&rsquo;s agenda.<span>&nbsp; </span>It is clear that, for the time being at least, people at these institutions want to get us to invest in U.S. companies, even though these investments are relatively much less attractive.<span>&nbsp; </span>Expectations are higher for places like Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal; yet Bloomberg recently published an article on Waldo Mushman without doing proper investigation.<span>&nbsp; </span>If they had investigated properly, they would have readily seen that the Mushman, as is standard for short proponents in this stock space, is regularly inaccurate in his criticisms and does not issue retractions.<span>&nbsp; </span>In fact, they would have found things like this:<span>&nbsp; </span><span>&ldquo;The management of China Sky One Medical reminded investors that Waldo Mushman was misleading investors by counterfeiting SAIC documents and posting them on its website and other blogs.&rdquo;<span>&nbsp; </span>(Source:<span>&nbsp; </span><a href="http://www.skyonemedical.com/English/newsshow.asp?hid=848" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">http://www.skyonemedical.com/English/newsshow.asp?hid=848</a>)<span>&nbsp; </span>I hereby challenge the U.S. and other business news services to do unbiased, high-quality investigative journalism regarding the point-by-point accuracy and integrity of the short proponents in this space. <span>&nbsp;</span>If and when they do, the results will be shockingly (to many people) unflattering.</span></font></font></p><p><font size="3">(5)<span>&nbsp; </span>The many well-known and reputable individuals and institutions in this space as long-side investors should be more involved.<span>&nbsp; </span>It may be too difficult or time-consuming for a news service like Bloomberg to go through all of the more-recent major SEC filings, visit locations in China, et cetera, related to a company(s) that has been unfairly criticized.<span>&nbsp; </span>These bigger investors have already strongly vetted these investments.<span>&nbsp; </span>They are a resource via which the many unfair short-side contentions can be more-readily debunked.<span>&nbsp; </span>They should also consider legal action as a potential course of responsive action.</font></p><p><font size="3">(6)<span>&nbsp; </span>The bigger, more-renowned brokerages, et cetera, should initiate coverage on some of these stocks&mdash;and not simply for newer issues for which they may have helped with the financing and/or listing.<span>&nbsp; </span>Some of them are far better investments than the vast majority of stocks that are currently covered.</font></p><p><font size="3">If/when any of the many short-side people who lie, exaggerate, or misrepresent respond to this article, I may simply ignore them.<span>&nbsp; </span>It is only worth spending a limited amount of time responding to falsehood after falsehood after falsehood.<span>&nbsp; </span>If, on the other hand, you are not one of these people, and you think I was significantly inaccurate with something I wrote above, you think that something I wrote above should be enhanced, or the like, please do point this out to me.</font></p><span><font><p><span><font size="3">Disclosures:<span>&nbsp; </span>I am long YONG and HRBN.<span>&nbsp; </span>Otherwise, I do not have a position regarding any of the companies mentioned in this article.</font></span></p></font></span><br><br><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I am long <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/yong" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">YONG</a>, <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/hrbn" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">HRBN</a>.<br>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Tue, 08 Feb 2011 15:09:23 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<p><span><font size="3"><font>Preamble:<span>&nbsp; </span>Despite the fact that Seeking Alpha has recently published many articles from short-side authors that were obviously biased and shoddily researched (and did a lot of unjustified damage to the portfolio value of long-side investors and some unjustified damage to the companies being unfairly criticized), they declined to publish this article&mdash;in its current state at least.<span>&nbsp; </span>I believe that Seeking Alpha, and/or its editors, are a part of the problem which I describe within this article under Part 1, point [4].<span>&nbsp; </span>In addition, I am concerned that people within Seeking Alpha and/or people affiliated with Seeking Alpha personnel may be shorting the stocks that are being unfairly criticized within published articles prior to article publication.<span>&nbsp; </span><span>&nbsp;</span>I am posting this article as an Instablog.<span>&nbsp; </span>If you have any suggestions as to another place(s), other than Seeking Alpha, where I can post this article, please share them with me.<span>&nbsp; </span>Also, I join with those who advise others to be very skeptical about the information published by Seeking Alpha, especially if the information is short-side stock information.</font></font></span><br><br><font size="3">More-and-more, we are seeing written articles, web blogs, message board postings, and television segments in which U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, especially the ones that came into being via a reverse merger, are characterized as far more risky and/or frauds.<span>&nbsp; </span>These characterizations have occurred ad nauseam.<span>&nbsp; </span>Sometimes these characterizations have been made regarding the stock segment as a whole, sometimes they have been made in regard to individual stocks within the segment, and sometimes they have been made in regard to the segment as a whole and an individual stock(s) in conjunction.</font></p><p><font size="3">In brief, these characterizations are almost entirely false.<span>&nbsp; </span>Like in any stock segment, occasionally, a stock like RINO International is found.<span>&nbsp; </span>(RINO International appears to have overstated their past revenue since two contracts for which they reported receiving revenue were never finalized.)<span>&nbsp; </span>Despite the very bright spotlight thrown on this stock segment for an extended period, there is not reliable evidence that these stocks are far riskier; and it is becoming clearer and clearer over time that, entirely or almost entirely, the underlying companies are not frauds.</font></p><p><font size="3">In fact, since the prices of these stocks have been beaten down to such a ridiculously low level based upon almost-entirely-false information, they represent a fantastic buying opportunity for individual investors.<span>&nbsp; </span>Normally, this kind of buying opportunity is limited to venture capitalists and the like.<span>&nbsp; </span>In this segment, individuals have a venture-capitalist-like opportunity.<span>&nbsp; </span>Like a venture capitalist, though, you need to do your due diligence to separate the truly great opportunities from the overstated opportunities and the occasional fraud.<span>&nbsp; </span>In this way, it is just like investing in U.S.-or-Western-European-based companies; but it has far greater upside potential.</font></p><p><font size="3">What has been happening is this:<span>&nbsp; </span>People know that they can easily make money in this segment by shorting the stocks and, then, often with or via collaborators, communicating a series of lies, exaggerations, and/or misrepresentations that will drag the stock price down.<span>&nbsp; </span>One of these many lies, exaggerations, and/or misrepresentations may hit on what proves to be, in part if not in whole, a true flaw regarding the investment.<span>&nbsp; </span>Almost always, they hit on nothing or nothing significant.<span>&nbsp; </span>It doesn&rsquo;t matter much, if at all, to the shorter if any of the lies, exaggerations, and/or misrepresentations hit.<span>&nbsp; </span>The stock price still goes down, at least for a while.</font></p><p><font size="3">Is this unethical?<span>&nbsp; </span>Yes, of course it is.<span>&nbsp; </span>Will this continue?<span>&nbsp; </span>Yes.<span>&nbsp; </span>How can it be stopped?<span>&nbsp; </span>Via multiple measures.</font></p><p><font size="3">(1) The impacted companies are just now starting to speak out well in response to these attacks.<span>&nbsp; </span>This trend must continue and strengthen.<span>&nbsp; </span>Generally, they should not be silent regarding any unfair criticisms that largely affect the stock price, even if the affect on the stock price is temporary.<span>&nbsp; </span>Also, if when a legitimate, significant question is raised that the company has not answered or answered well enough before, they should always answer the question publically.<span>&nbsp; </span>(A criticism can, potentially, be valid.)</font></p><p><font size="3">(2) The companies should always consider legal action as a potential course of responsive action.</font></p><p><font size="3">(3)<span>&nbsp; </span>U.S. regulatory authorities need to address the situation.<span>&nbsp; </span>It is an outright embarrassment that we have done nothing regarding the grave mistreatment of the companies in this stock sector.<span>&nbsp; </span>It is also rather humorous that we have done nothing, in the context of all the unfounded or exaggerated claims about how relatively untrustworthy these companies are because they are Chinese.<span>&nbsp; </span>It appears that they can&rsquo;t trust us, not the other way around.</font></p><p><font size="3"><font>(4) The more-reputable, and supposedly more-reputable, U.S. news sources should stop covering this story in a biased and/or unprofessional manner.<span>&nbsp; </span>Barron&rsquo;s and CNBC seem unlikely to do this.<span>&nbsp; </span>All of us who are knowledgeable regarding the news realm know that, often, what passes for news is simply a part of someone&rsquo;s and/or some institution&rsquo;s agenda.<span>&nbsp; </span>It is clear that, for the time being at least, people at these institutions want to get us to invest in U.S. companies, even though these investments are relatively much less attractive.<span>&nbsp; </span>Expectations are higher for places like Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal; yet Bloomberg recently published an article on Waldo Mushman without doing proper investigation.<span>&nbsp; </span>If they had investigated properly, they would have readily seen that the Mushman, as is standard for short proponents in this stock space, is regularly inaccurate in his criticisms and does not issue retractions.<span>&nbsp; </span>In fact, they would have found things like this:<span>&nbsp; </span><span>&ldquo;The management of China Sky One Medical reminded investors that Waldo Mushman was misleading investors by counterfeiting SAIC documents and posting them on its website and other blogs.&rdquo;<span>&nbsp; </span>(Source:<span>&nbsp; </span><a href="http://www.skyonemedical.com/English/newsshow.asp?hid=848" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">http://www.skyonemedical.com/English/newsshow.asp?hid=848</a>)<span>&nbsp; </span>I hereby challenge the U.S. and other business news services to do unbiased, high-quality investigative journalism regarding the point-by-point accuracy and integrity of the short proponents in this space. <span>&nbsp;</span>If and when they do, the results will be shockingly (to many people) unflattering.</span></font></font></p><p><font size="3">(5)<span>&nbsp; </span>The many well-known and reputable individuals and institutions in this space as long-side investors should be more involved.<span>&nbsp; </span>It may be too difficult or time-consuming for a news service like Bloomberg to go through all of the more-recent major SEC filings, visit locations in China, et cetera, related to a company(s) that has been unfairly criticized.<span>&nbsp; </span>These bigger investors have already strongly vetted these investments.<span>&nbsp; </span>They are a resource via which the many unfair short-side contentions can be more-readily debunked.<span>&nbsp; </span>They should also consider legal action as a potential course of responsive action.</font></p><p><font size="3">(6)<span>&nbsp; </span>The bigger, more-renowned brokerages, et cetera, should initiate coverage on some of these stocks&mdash;and not simply for newer issues for which they may have helped with the financing and/or listing.<span>&nbsp; </span>Some of them are far better investments than the vast majority of stocks that are currently covered.</font></p><p><font size="3">If/when any of the many short-side people who lie, exaggerate, or misrepresent respond to this article, I may simply ignore them.<span>&nbsp; </span>It is only worth spending a limited amount of time responding to falsehood after falsehood after falsehood.<span>&nbsp; </span>If, on the other hand, you are not one of these people, and you think I was significantly inaccurate with something I wrote above, you think that something I wrote above should be enhanced, or the like, please do point this out to me.</font></p><span><font><p><span><font size="3">Disclosures:<span>&nbsp; </span>I am long YONG and HRBN.<span>&nbsp; </span>Otherwise, I do not have a position regarding any of the companies mentioned in this article.</font></span></p></font></span><br><br><strong>Disclosure: </strong>I am long <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/yong" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">YONG</a>, <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/hrbn" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">HRBN</a>.<br>]]>
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    <item>
      <title>YONG Discussion Message Unwarrantedly Censored By Yahoo Finance</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/702244-kurt-shrout/86164-yong-discussion-message-unwarrantedly-censored-by-yahoo-finance?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">86164</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p><span><font size="3"><font>Below is the exact and complete content of a message that I attempted to post on the Yahoo Finance NIV message board.&nbsp; Yahoo blocked this message from posting (i.e., censored it) each and every time that I attempted to post it.&nbsp; This was true even after I removed the text that I have, now, italicized within the message.&nbsp; I wrote Yahoo twice about unwarrantedly censoring this message.&nbsp; Less two very minor grammatical corrections that I made (i.e., the addition of a missing &ldquo;)&rdquo; and removing an &ldquo;a&rdquo; between &ldquo;have&rdquo; and &ldquo;Bachelors&rdquo;), below the censored message are the exact and complete correspondences between Yahoo and me.<span>&nbsp; </span>For those of you who know me from the Yahoo Finance message boards for NIV, YONG, and HRBN, please be aware that, if I suddenly stop participating on these message boards, it is because Yahoo terminated my account in a further act of unwarranted censorship.&nbsp; Also, if you wish to comment on or discuss this situation, we should do it via this vehicle, and not via Yahoo Finance.&nbsp; Based upon some research I have done, it appears that Yahoo may delete some or all of the messages pertaining to this topic; and I don't want anyone else to have difficulties with Yahoo based upon this specific situation.<br><br><u>Censored message</u>:</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>&quot;In important ways, YONG&rsquo;s use of fulvic acid is newer.&nbsp;Fulvic acid has been in use in China and some other countries for hundreds of years; but not, to the extent I can determine, for agriculture.&nbsp;In terms of agriculture, there are research studies going back to at least the 1980&rsquo;s.&nbsp;In terms of the plant product (which currently represents over 90% of revenues), it doesn&rsquo;t really matter anyway.&nbsp;China has, to a large extent, duplicated the mistake that the U.S. and some other countries made.&nbsp;They relied on non-organic and/or N-P-K fertilizers and, in so doing, made the food being produced less-and-less nutritious over the years, et cetera.&nbsp;<i>The U.S. ended up doing this very heavily because the U.S. is very big-money-driven, versus a true democracy.&nbsp;It&rsquo;s a much longer story; but our companies don&rsquo;t care if the people are malnourished, as long as they are making plenty of money off of the products they are selling, and our government is too disingenuous to do much about it.&nbsp;(The vitamin and mineral supplements that most people take fall far short of addressing the problem, and this is just a way in which our companies can make even more money without doing much public good.)</i></font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>I may have digressed some in the paragraph above; but the point is that YONG, and other companies that are producing products enabling China to reverse this situation, are emblematic of what should be a new era.&nbsp;Also, previously, fulvic acid products for agriculture were plagued by quality and misapplication issues.&nbsp;Many companies are still producing poor quality products and giving bad advice regarding application amounts, et cetera.&nbsp;YONG, and some other companies, are bucking this trend; and their sales do, and will continue to, reflect this.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>I don&rsquo;t trust the ability of many companies with high margins to maintain them; but I do trust YONG&rsquo;s ability to maintain its margins for years to come &ndash; and, in fact, grow them.&nbsp;Why?&nbsp;The coal mine and distribution rights purchases they made recently will each give them a significant amount of margin improvement, and they have barely tapped the domestic market available to them.&nbsp;They have almost certainly already smacked up against numerous competitors; but almost entirely, if not entirely, their competitors&rsquo; products and marketing (including assistance to farmers) aren&rsquo;t as good.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">If no one else on this message board is interested in YONG, it is&nbsp;O.K. with me, of course.&nbsp;I have just been engaging in a good conversation about it with y&rsquo;all.&nbsp;If someone else is interested, you may want to go to the YONG message board and see the messages I posted earlier today under Technical Viability Of YONG&rsquo;s Products.&quot;<br><br><u>Correspondence from me to Yahoo</u>:<br><br>&quot;The URL involved is </font><a href="http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_N/messagesview?bn=93315" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_N/messagesview?bn=93315</font></span></a><font size="3">.<br>This is, simply, the NIV message board.&nbsp; I can post messages on this <br>board, but I cannot post the message below.&nbsp; Also, the blocking of this <br>message followed an unnatural pattern.&nbsp; (This is the easiest way I can <br>say it.&nbsp; It means, for instance, that it did not follow the pattern it <br>follows when you accidently type a curse word within the text, or the <br>like.)&nbsp; You need to either allow me to post this message or give me a <br>true and good reason why it was blocked.&nbsp; If you do not, I will not <br>simply sit on my hands.&nbsp; The message is as follows; and, in a country <br>that supposedly has free speech, there is nothing wrong with it.&quot;<br><br><u>Response from Yahoo</u>:<br><br>&quot;Thank you for writing to Yahoo! Message Boards.<br><br>We have completed our evaluation of your abuse report in accordance with<br>our Terms of Service, and because of our privacy guidelines, we do not <br>disclose what, if any, action which may have been taken on a user's <br>account.<br><br>We can tell you that we may, in appropriate circumstances and at our <br>sole discretion, terminate or take other action on accounts of users who<br>may have violated our Terms of Service.<br><br>You can review the Yahoo! Terms of Service here:<br><br>&nbsp;&nbsp; </font><a href="http://info.yahoo.com/legal/us/yahoo/utos/utos-173.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">http://info.yahoo.com/legal/us/yahoo/utos/utos-173.html</font></span></a><br><br><font size="3"><font>Thank you for taking the time to report abuse on Yahoo!.<br><br>Thank you again for contacting Yahoo! Message Boards.&quot;<br><br><u>My response to Yahoo</u>:</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>&quot;This is rather important, so I am going to give you one more chance to get this right.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>&nbsp;</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>I have Bachelors and Masters degrees in Communication, and I have reviewed your terms of service.&nbsp;&nbsp;The message&nbsp;I attempted to post does not violate your terms of service.&nbsp; You have, simply, violated my right to free speech.&nbsp; Moreover, everything I attempted to post is, actually, inarguable fact.&nbsp; It is all so well supported by legitimate statistics, government documents, and other information that there is, actually, not another valid perspective.&nbsp; The issue is that people have had, and continue to have, inadequate unbiased access to this information.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>&nbsp;</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>Regardless&nbsp;of the above, it is not your place to make any judgment on matters such as these.&nbsp; I did not curse; I did not attempt to sell goods or services via your message board (as I have seen some others do); and I did not attempt to incite violence.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>&nbsp;</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>It is extremely important that you do not block messages such as mine.&nbsp; Although you probably do not recognize it, the quality of our (United States) government, companies, and people have badly deteriorated in recent decades - to the point where we are relatively good at very little.&nbsp; The only way that we can address this issue is by first recognizing our flaws in earnest and entirety.&nbsp; Without doing this, we cannot begin to better ourselves.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>&nbsp;</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">I strongly advise you to not respond to this email with a canned response.&nbsp; You should be certain to involve management, at an adequately high level, prior to giving a final response.&nbsp; I expect you, as I should, to respond to me within 24 hours; but, if you need more time to determine your final response as an organization, I understand.&nbsp; Just don't take <i>too</i> long.&quot;<br><br><u>Yahoo's response to me</u>:<br><br>&quot;Thank you for writing to Yahoo! Message Boards.<br><br>Yahoo! takes pride in the fact that our communities are an interesting <br>place to interact, share, learn, and grow. In keeping with this spirit <br>of community, we may periodically review posted content and remove posts<br>that violate our Terms of Service (TOS).<br><br>Please review the TOS to ensure that your posts are within our community<br>conduct guidelines. The TOS can be found at:<br><br>&nbsp;&nbsp; </font><a href="http://info.yahoo.com/legal/us/yahoo/utos/utos-173.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">http://info.yahoo.com/legal/us/yahoo/utos/utos-173.html</font></span></a><br><br><font size="3"><font>Thank you again for contacting Yahoo! Message Boards.&quot;</font></font></span></p><br><br><strong>Disclosure: </strong>Long NIV, YONG, HRBN]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Fri, 06 Aug 2010 23:24:04 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<p><span><font size="3"><font>Below is the exact and complete content of a message that I attempted to post on the Yahoo Finance NIV message board.&nbsp; Yahoo blocked this message from posting (i.e., censored it) each and every time that I attempted to post it.&nbsp; This was true even after I removed the text that I have, now, italicized within the message.&nbsp; I wrote Yahoo twice about unwarrantedly censoring this message.&nbsp; Less two very minor grammatical corrections that I made (i.e., the addition of a missing &ldquo;)&rdquo; and removing an &ldquo;a&rdquo; between &ldquo;have&rdquo; and &ldquo;Bachelors&rdquo;), below the censored message are the exact and complete correspondences between Yahoo and me.<span>&nbsp; </span>For those of you who know me from the Yahoo Finance message boards for NIV, YONG, and HRBN, please be aware that, if I suddenly stop participating on these message boards, it is because Yahoo terminated my account in a further act of unwarranted censorship.&nbsp; Also, if you wish to comment on or discuss this situation, we should do it via this vehicle, and not via Yahoo Finance.&nbsp; Based upon some research I have done, it appears that Yahoo may delete some or all of the messages pertaining to this topic; and I don't want anyone else to have difficulties with Yahoo based upon this specific situation.<br><br><u>Censored message</u>:</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>&quot;In important ways, YONG&rsquo;s use of fulvic acid is newer.&nbsp;Fulvic acid has been in use in China and some other countries for hundreds of years; but not, to the extent I can determine, for agriculture.&nbsp;In terms of agriculture, there are research studies going back to at least the 1980&rsquo;s.&nbsp;In terms of the plant product (which currently represents over 90% of revenues), it doesn&rsquo;t really matter anyway.&nbsp;China has, to a large extent, duplicated the mistake that the U.S. and some other countries made.&nbsp;They relied on non-organic and/or N-P-K fertilizers and, in so doing, made the food being produced less-and-less nutritious over the years, et cetera.&nbsp;<i>The U.S. ended up doing this very heavily because the U.S. is very big-money-driven, versus a true democracy.&nbsp;It&rsquo;s a much longer story; but our companies don&rsquo;t care if the people are malnourished, as long as they are making plenty of money off of the products they are selling, and our government is too disingenuous to do much about it.&nbsp;(The vitamin and mineral supplements that most people take fall far short of addressing the problem, and this is just a way in which our companies can make even more money without doing much public good.)</i></font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>I may have digressed some in the paragraph above; but the point is that YONG, and other companies that are producing products enabling China to reverse this situation, are emblematic of what should be a new era.&nbsp;Also, previously, fulvic acid products for agriculture were plagued by quality and misapplication issues.&nbsp;Many companies are still producing poor quality products and giving bad advice regarding application amounts, et cetera.&nbsp;YONG, and some other companies, are bucking this trend; and their sales do, and will continue to, reflect this.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>I don&rsquo;t trust the ability of many companies with high margins to maintain them; but I do trust YONG&rsquo;s ability to maintain its margins for years to come &ndash; and, in fact, grow them.&nbsp;Why?&nbsp;The coal mine and distribution rights purchases they made recently will each give them a significant amount of margin improvement, and they have barely tapped the domestic market available to them.&nbsp;They have almost certainly already smacked up against numerous competitors; but almost entirely, if not entirely, their competitors&rsquo; products and marketing (including assistance to farmers) aren&rsquo;t as good.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">If no one else on this message board is interested in YONG, it is&nbsp;O.K. with me, of course.&nbsp;I have just been engaging in a good conversation about it with y&rsquo;all.&nbsp;If someone else is interested, you may want to go to the YONG message board and see the messages I posted earlier today under Technical Viability Of YONG&rsquo;s Products.&quot;<br><br><u>Correspondence from me to Yahoo</u>:<br><br>&quot;The URL involved is </font><a href="http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_N/messagesview?bn=93315" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_N/messagesview?bn=93315</font></span></a><font size="3">.<br>This is, simply, the NIV message board.&nbsp; I can post messages on this <br>board, but I cannot post the message below.&nbsp; Also, the blocking of this <br>message followed an unnatural pattern.&nbsp; (This is the easiest way I can <br>say it.&nbsp; It means, for instance, that it did not follow the pattern it <br>follows when you accidently type a curse word within the text, or the <br>like.)&nbsp; You need to either allow me to post this message or give me a <br>true and good reason why it was blocked.&nbsp; If you do not, I will not <br>simply sit on my hands.&nbsp; The message is as follows; and, in a country <br>that supposedly has free speech, there is nothing wrong with it.&quot;<br><br><u>Response from Yahoo</u>:<br><br>&quot;Thank you for writing to Yahoo! Message Boards.<br><br>We have completed our evaluation of your abuse report in accordance with<br>our Terms of Service, and because of our privacy guidelines, we do not <br>disclose what, if any, action which may have been taken on a user's <br>account.<br><br>We can tell you that we may, in appropriate circumstances and at our <br>sole discretion, terminate or take other action on accounts of users who<br>may have violated our Terms of Service.<br><br>You can review the Yahoo! Terms of Service here:<br><br>&nbsp;&nbsp; </font><a href="http://info.yahoo.com/legal/us/yahoo/utos/utos-173.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">http://info.yahoo.com/legal/us/yahoo/utos/utos-173.html</font></span></a><br><br><font size="3"><font>Thank you for taking the time to report abuse on Yahoo!.<br><br>Thank you again for contacting Yahoo! Message Boards.&quot;<br><br><u>My response to Yahoo</u>:</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>&quot;This is rather important, so I am going to give you one more chance to get this right.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>&nbsp;</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>I have Bachelors and Masters degrees in Communication, and I have reviewed your terms of service.&nbsp;&nbsp;The message&nbsp;I attempted to post does not violate your terms of service.&nbsp; You have, simply, violated my right to free speech.&nbsp; Moreover, everything I attempted to post is, actually, inarguable fact.&nbsp; It is all so well supported by legitimate statistics, government documents, and other information that there is, actually, not another valid perspective.&nbsp; The issue is that people have had, and continue to have, inadequate unbiased access to this information.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>&nbsp;</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>Regardless&nbsp;of the above, it is not your place to make any judgment on matters such as these.&nbsp; I did not curse; I did not attempt to sell goods or services via your message board (as I have seen some others do); and I did not attempt to incite violence.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>&nbsp;</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>It is extremely important that you do not block messages such as mine.&nbsp; Although you probably do not recognize it, the quality of our (United States) government, companies, and people have badly deteriorated in recent decades - to the point where we are relatively good at very little.&nbsp; The only way that we can address this issue is by first recognizing our flaws in earnest and entirety.&nbsp; Without doing this, we cannot begin to better ourselves.</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3"><font>&nbsp;</font></font></span></p><p><span><font size="3">I strongly advise you to not respond to this email with a canned response.&nbsp; You should be certain to involve management, at an adequately high level, prior to giving a final response.&nbsp; I expect you, as I should, to respond to me within 24 hours; but, if you need more time to determine your final response as an organization, I understand.&nbsp; Just don't take <i>too</i> long.&quot;<br><br><u>Yahoo's response to me</u>:<br><br>&quot;Thank you for writing to Yahoo! Message Boards.<br><br>Yahoo! takes pride in the fact that our communities are an interesting <br>place to interact, share, learn, and grow. In keeping with this spirit <br>of community, we may periodically review posted content and remove posts<br>that violate our Terms of Service (TOS).<br><br>Please review the TOS to ensure that your posts are within our community<br>conduct guidelines. The TOS can be found at:<br><br>&nbsp;&nbsp; </font><a href="http://info.yahoo.com/legal/us/yahoo/utos/utos-173.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span><font size="3">http://info.yahoo.com/legal/us/yahoo/utos/utos-173.html</font></span></a><br><br><font size="3"><font>Thank you again for contacting Yahoo! Message Boards.&quot;</font></font></span></p><br><br><strong>Disclosure: </strong>Long NIV, YONG, HRBN]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/yong/instablogs">yong</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/Yahoo Finance Message Board Censorship">Yahoo Finance Message Board Censorship</category>
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