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Kurtis Hemmerling

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  • Disney (DIS) says it will take a $200M write-down related to the mega-flop John Carter, worse than the $120M-$160M forecast by analysts. The loss will result in Disney's studio division reporting an operating loss of $80M-$120M in the March quarter, compared with a $77M operating profit in the December quarter. Disney hopes The Avengers and Pixar's Brave will give its studio ops a lift later this year.  [View news story]
    Ishtar did terrible and I actually found it quite funny in a quirky sort of way.

    "If you admit you can play the accordion, no one will hire you in a rock and roll band."
    Mar 19, 2012. 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Stocks At 52-Week Lows That Are Diamonds In The Rough [View article]
    I was using Yahoos data on this page.
    Mar 15, 2012. 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Little-Known Gold Stock Could Easily Double In 2012 [View article]
    Your last calculation looks like a fine estimate too. But if startup costs come from equity dilution and share pool goes up by 150 million (for a total of 200 million outstanding), based on current prices that works out to just over $6 per share.

    Perhaps investors are waiting for that announcement before running prices up? It shouldn't really matter since the company needs to sell fewer shares at higher prices if it did prematurely go and more shares at lower prices.
    Mar 15, 2012. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Little-Known Gold Stock Could Easily Double In 2012 [View article]
    I was using a mix of averages/maximums/esti... etc. based on the some of the depths on their report ( plus the possibility of more extensions.
    Mar 14, 2012. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Myths About Investing In Africa [View article]
    Good article. I too wrote a piece last year that tallked about how investors view Africa as one giant country.
    If someone lumped Mexico and Canada together I would point out a few differences for sure. Some good gold plays in Africa right now.
    Mar 14, 2012. 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bearish Leveraged ETF Best Left To Short-Term Traders [View article]
    In a recent SA article I discuss (at the bottom) how to take advantage of the negative compounding effects of leveraged funds. Simultaneously short both a bull and bear leveraged fund to turn the long-term negative effects into a positive one. Use equal dollar amounts in each fund and rebalance monthly.
    Mar 14, 2012. 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Defensive Dividend Strategy That Still Beats The Market [View article]
    Thanks for response. Definitely look into each of these before buying. For instance...

    PEG - sales peaked in 2007/08 with current sales down but I really like what they have done with net income over the past decade and the yield based on payout is strong. Share prices have been flat over past 5 years though. This stock moves in slow-motion and you'll have many months exit if things turn.

    NEC... do you mean NEE or NWE? Negative sales and eps for trailing 12 months, or yoy quarters or 2011 vs 2010? I'm not seeing the numbers you are referring to at a quick glance.

    EXC is one I've written about earlier as wanting to accumulate a lower levels. My sweet spot would be $30 but I think regular buys throughout the year will give you an OK average price.

    Don't get me wrong, I think looking at pros and cons of these stocks are key and appreciate your insightful posting.
    Mar 14, 2012. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Defensive Dividend Strategy That Still Beats The Market [View article]
    I'm happy with a long-term 15% total return even if interest rates do rise. But keep in mind that pipeline MLPs are allow rate hikes and if interest rates go up with inflation, so will the other utilities.

    You bring up a good point on which the right strategy is for this decade. I see low growth as making this type of strategy most relevant but others will see it differently.
    Mar 14, 2012. 06:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Defensive Dividend Strategy That Still Beats The Market [View article]
    Worth someone looking into. I don't smoke and thus do not promote tobacco companies. My own ethical investing belief system. They may very well have excellent returns for investors though.
    Mar 12, 2012. 01:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Makes Covered Call ETFs So Lackluster? [View article]
    sorry yes you are correct but I also didn't mention margin. You have differing margin requirements depending on double or triple leverage and if you go long or short. Expect 90% margin req when shorting triple leveraged funds. Dec 2009 lowered the profit of this but still a good trading idea.
    Mar 11, 2012. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Makes Covered Call ETFs So Lackluster? [View article]
    This is the data that I got - unless it is wrong you should have no problem short selling bull or bear ETFs.

    UPRO — Short Interest
    Shares Short 535,600
    Chg. from Last Month -22,400
    Shares Outstanding 3,500,000
    % of Shares Short 15.30%
    Days to Cover 0.2

    SPXU — Short Interest
    Shares Short 1,806,600
    Chg. from Last Month -845,700
    Shares Outstanding 56,650,000
    % of Shares Short 3.19%
    Days to Cover 0.2
    Mar 11, 2012. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Deep Value Dividend Stocks To Buy, 1 To Sell [View article]
    Thanks for your viewpoint. Anytime a company is paying out a dividend with one hand and creating more shares with the other - they are essentially paying me the proceeds of dilution regardless if they say 'well your dividend came from this pile of cash and we needed to create this other pile for CAPEX...'. If you don't have enough cash to pay your bills and expand, don't pay a dividend on the back of shareholder dilution. Maybe that will change going forward but all I have is a past track record of managements policy to determine if this is a dividend stock I want to own.... and I don't.

    I never presume management smart unless they prove it first. They went with the 'same old same old' of paying dividends when clearly they should have cut it altogether for the time being. They have set their dividends at an unsustainable level (and I'm not talking relative yield since price is set by investors). Did you see the dividend cuts since 2006? If they have enough cash to pay the dividends - why the continual share dilution?
    Mar 10, 2012. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Makes Covered Call ETFs So Lackluster? [View article]
    I'm not assuming constant premiums and was merely using those figures as an example. Monthly volatility with a longer term trendless market will kill your gains no matter how you slice it. I could take the time to go month by month with IV numbers but I thought the brief example would highlight the point.

    SPY options with 30 days until expiration ATM with 14% IV carry a 1.8% premium. Assume constant IV on upmonths. Assume down month IV is at 28%. Premium is 3%. (using options pricing model) Trendless choppy market with twice IV premiums in a down month. Market goes up 5% one month and down 5% the next. You will still lose over time even in this generous scenario. Of course if the market expects a big dump you might get increasing amounts. Is getting a 3 to 5% monthly premium worth the market risk of loving 15% in one month? Historical proof on these ETFs say no.

    With the ETFs, you are shorting both the bull and bear leveraged funds so you are hedged against a quick move in either direction. Look at the chart (bottom one) again and note the inverse hedging moves for short-term runs in either direction, but the longer term degradation of the combined values due to volatility.
    Mar 10, 2012. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Dividend Stocks To Buy, 5 To Avoid [View article]
    EXC doesn't have such a terrific payout ratio when you look at forecast earnings for 2012. Pushing 70% and SO works out to 70.7% payout ratio. Not sure which of the two categories it should be in based on that.

    I like EXC but I'd like to see prices drop a bit more before buying. A 10 - 15% discount from here would make more sense to me.
    Mar 8, 2012. 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Still Bullish (II) [View article]
    I believe we'll see 1275 in the S&P 500 soon. I've been expecting this for some time now.

    Reasons include S&P 500 earnings losing momentum (if looking at two trailing and two forward quarters), currently at price resistance, sentiment increasing as contrarian indicator, long-term trend line sits at 1275 which also just happens to be my confirmation signal of the 100 day moving average. Volume was falling until a couple days ago. No real reason to go up and every reason to test and potentially bounce. If 1275 doesn't hold (provided forecast earnings trend drops below key thresholds) - I'll goto the sidelines as my criteria for a down market will all be hit.

    Right now I'm looking at a short-term 7-8% downside followed by a bullish bounce up.
    Mar 6, 2012. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment