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Kurtis Hemmerling  

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  • Common Misconceptions About Buy-And-Hold Investing [View article]
    So I am a little confused. Are you simply stating that some investors stay 100% long invested at all times and that is the definition of buy and hold? It seems your 'buy and hold' investor does everything but do short scalp trading.
    Jul 11, 2012. 11:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividend Investors Can Ignore Stock Prices [View article]
    Dividend growth trading based on valuation is one of my top strategies right now. However, big disclaimer about dividends/price/earnings being linked together. Price going down may indicate future risk of earnings drop thus making the dividend growth unsustainable. Dividend growth is a good starting point for an investable universe but many factors need to be considered in addition to management policy of raising dividends annually.
    Jun 25, 2012. 11:37 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Many Hidden Costs Of Active Investing In Small Caps [View article]
    That sounds like a momentum strategy using 3 month look-back periods. There is a documented momentum premium in global markets... everywhere but Japan for some reason.

    I add some momentum into my strategies but I also like to combine it with fiscal momentum to add fundamental weight to the price move.
    Jun 22, 2012. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Does As Advertised [View article]
    Tongue in cheek as to my last comment. You did an very good job of presenting a variety of charts.
    Jun 21, 2012. 08:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Does As Advertised [View article]
    I am not totally convinced. Can you show a few more charts?
    Jun 21, 2012. 08:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can The Fed Remain Relevant? [View article]
    Very good read. Thanks.
    Jun 20, 2012. 06:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing Piotroski's F-Score: Method, Results, And 10 Stock Ideas [View article]
    Try this site - Graham Investor:
    Jun 19, 2012. 06:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing Piotroski's F-Score: Method, Results, And 10 Stock Ideas [View article]
    Figured it out. There are 2 Piotroski systems - High F-Score and Piotroski 9.

    These are the monthly figures of the Piotroski 9 system of the past 12 months:
    Jun 18, 2012. 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing Piotroski's F-Score: Method, Results, And 10 Stock Ideas [View article]
    I read the Forbes article you referred to. But on the AAII site it says the High F-Score Piotroski system fell 35.3% in 2008. I'm not sure what to make of this. Ideas?
    Jun 18, 2012. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Low-Volatility Portfolio The Key To Investment Return? [View article]
    Oh, I see how you are computing this. Some mutual fund advisors do this...

    I wouldn't take a simple annual average like that - using CAGR would be more meaningful. If shares went from 100 down to 1 and back up to 110 - your calculations would show a negative number even though I am up 10%.

    I'd like to see the data but I took the above report as that the total return over specified periods of time or the mean tendency of the share prices had a slower growth rate.
    Jun 18, 2012. 06:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Low-Volatility Portfolio The Key To Investment Return? [View article]
    I am curious as to why this is so. I hope Shannon drills deeper into the individual securities instead of simply saying 'well, this is what happened in the past and we can assume it will work going forward'. I am a big fan of backtesting using strategy but I'm failing to see the 'why this works'. Is lower volatility due to lower risk in the securities? If so - define lower risk other than beta. What metrics made these better companies? Or is it that the types of investors drawn to these types of firms have guts of steel in all markets? If the latter is true and everyone, including emotional investors, now flock to these low volatility stocks and products - they won't stay low volatility for long. Then the next study will say - 'yes, it was low risk but when it dropped 90% it suddenly became high volatility so you shouldn't have been invested in it."

    I'm not knocking the article or the research done - I actually run a model based on the principles - yet I have this uneasy feeling that we are looking at the product of some actions that have not yet been determined. The 'why' is everything, and simply that it has happened for the last 40 years is something.
    Jun 14, 2012. 12:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Are Analyst-Based Market Timing Signals Saying? [View article]
    Its a confirmation signal. If the main indicator is down, I wait for share prices to breach the 100 day weighted moving average.

    On the flip side (for most of the strategies that is), I need only have share prices rise above the 100 day wma or the earnings trend pick up - but not both.
    Jun 13, 2012. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Picking Defensive Stocks Is Poor Thinking [View article]
    Interesting read - although I do disagree. The assumption here is that defensive stocks have far less upside, hence, they are not worth the risk of owning. That is a valuation judgement on share prices. Defensive is about how defensive earnings and revenue are against economic cycles but says little or nothing about sentiment towards share price.

    Are dividend yields really higher risk? I'm not sure. A mature company fewer growth opportunities for cash will give dividends - which in turn keep P/E levels down. This is so since dividends lower share price but have not first order effect on earnings. Lower P/E means better valuation for your dividends, which keeps yields higher.

    I hear your points but respectfully I view it differently. Don't blindly buy a defensive stock just because it is defensive in its earnings - but it becuase it has deep value and gives a healthy income stream...and the defensive earnings will protect your valuation or simply give you a higher yield at a lower risk (because your earnings are somewhat protected).
    Jun 13, 2012. 08:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Dogs Of The Dividend Champions' Strategy [View article]
    Thanks. I'll be reporting more on a larger universe of stocks soon. The contender universe takes the cake with an 11 year backtest (using the above strategy) of over 23% CAGR and 32% maximum drawdown from peak to trough in 2008/09 crash. This might mean that many of the Challenger stocks are worth considering over the next 11 years as they will turn into Contenders by then. Definitely more testing and theorizing to come.
    Jun 7, 2012. 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Aggressive Growth Picks Worth Buying Now [View article]
    Hi Gary. I hope you realize that with the listed turnover of over 300% per year these momentum picks are not for buying and holding.

    The models are holding up nicely and one of the CAN SLIM models is up 22%, the fiscal momentum is up 12.6%, another high-growth is up 23.74%, and the sub $15 model is up only 8.35% after suffering a draw-down of over 15%. You can request recommended historical trades to be posted for any of these models listed above.

    On these small breakout momentum stocks you need just as aggressive sell-side rules as you do for your entries.
    Jun 6, 2012. 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment