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Kurtis Hemmerling

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  • Is There A Misplaced Mania Over Dividend-Paying Stocks? [View article]
    Another article I wrote on detailing yield and average share price outperformance of market. Combine both to see how much dividend stocks beat the market on average. When you consider that the market is made up of dividend stocks, the dividend-free universe is even lower.

    This doesn't speak about why dividend companies outperformed - maybe higher quality companies offer dividends, maybe higher gains are linked to value premium, that is open for debate. Bigger people drive bigger cars but that doesn't mean you'll get taller just because you buy a Hummer.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 12 08:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • You Know How to Pick Great Stocks? Prove It [View article]
    No doubt. But it is up a lot from $3 - 4 (split adjusted) in the late 90s. No implication was meant towards future growth - just pointing to the huge jump it has already experienced.
    Jan 12 05:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain Must Address Low Labor Productivity To Resume Economic Growth [View article]
    I liked this article as all too often the 'run of the mill' treatment is to focus fiscal and not social issues. Whether everyone here agrees with you or not I generally prefer the honest viewpoint of someone living and working in the country than some financial advisor living in the US who reads reports and doesn't understand the cultural differences. Keep up the good work.
    Jan 3 07:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Cancelling Netflix, And Why You Should Care [View article]
    $8 isn't much but I get the tv shows I want for free with the listed networks. Do you have the Canadian version of Netflix? One-third the content and not a great line-up either. The point is that I am not addicted to movies and I have lots to do with my time. If I only watch 2 movies a month - I can pay $4 to $5 per show and actually get what I want for the same price.
    Dec 28 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Cancelling Netflix, And Why You Should Care [View article]
    I hear you. But in Canada I am having a hard time finding one or two new good movies a month. Once you burn through their light-weight catalogue of so-so movies you pay $8 in the hope of new content that is worth watching. Good value for the first two or three months - not so much after that.
    Dec 28 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Healthcare Is Not Defensive [View article]
    Since I wrote that article little over a month ago the stratetgy is up 14.26% which far outstrips the market.
    http://bit.ly/sqBs3W

    This is another article trying to get a free ride by flaming contributors who actually did some homework. No, backtesting in itself is not the only consideration. But your vague statement about balance sheets being ridiculous and betting against healthcare just becuase it is defensive is not a well-defined strategy nor is it likely to be profitable. You slam me for offering up backtested proof with robustness, where is your proof that standing in front of a bus is a good idea just because busses usually win and this time you think it'll be different? I can show you backtested proof of contrarian investing if you like - but you will flame it too no doubt.

    It seems like you did not the actual article with cautions and a methods to limit risk. You extracted a portion out of context and offered up nothing in return. Do your due diligence and be honest next time.
    Dec 27 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Vs. Buybacks: Putting The Debate To Bed, Part II [View article]
    I guess the case could also be made whether you want the government to use quantitative easing to buy back bonds or mail us a check.
    Dec 16 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends And Stock Buybacks: Mutually Exclusive Or Interrelated? [View article]
    Buybacks can add a layer of coverup for excessive company options being handed out. Managers like buybacks since it keeps share prices propped up in the short-term. If a company chose to pay dividends this would negatively impact their company option premiums as they are negatively related to future dividends.

    I think buybacks CAN be okay provided no dilution is going on behind the scenes. But most often you have executives announcing a buyback, watching share prices jump, exercising options and selling into the hype - just to watch prices settle with a similar outstanding share pool a meager gain by long-term shareholders.

    In altrusitic theory it seems good. But I wonder how much extra earnings growth or excess net asset growth per share is really acheived in the real world over the long-term versus not doing it (factoring in the incentives of managers associated with executive options).
    Dec 16 02:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Vs. Buybacks: Putting The Debate To Bed, Part II [View article]
    Dividend and share buyback policy is interesting stuff. Some random thoughts:

    * Does dividend policy in itself create higher combined capital growth and income returns over non-dividend companies, or is it becuase higher quality companies decide to pay dividends?

    *Shouldn't the decision to pay dividends or not be based on the return on assets? If you take the dividend, pay tax and re-invest you in theory would do worse than if the ROA was high and they reinvested it.

    *Agree with mailer-daemon. Netflix buying back shares around $300 a piece wasn't too smart now that shares are at $70 and they diluted it. A waste of shareholder equity. Its all about the price you buyback at. As well, if you buyback and you give your employees tons of options - shareholder equity is being leaked out.

    *Difference between fiscal gain and share price gain?

    What I am really interested in is if you had 4 identical companies in every way shape and form. Have combinations of dividends and non dividends - and each of these are branched into buybacks and no buybacks. If all other values and metrics are equal - how would this effect total shareholder gain?
    Dec 16 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Stock Picking Strategy That Beats The Market [View article]
    Insightful - thank you for sharing.
    Dec 13 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Stock Picking Strategy That Beats The Market [View article]
    Interesting. Any thoughts why it works? It would seem that it is based on trailing 8 week momentum which is not a commonly used period. Upside gain is negatively correlated to positive 4 week momentum (better buying pullbacks in this short frame) but positively correlated to 3 month, 6 month, and one year holding. Is the selling at the end of the year used to take advantage of the Christmas rally and January effect? I'm interested in your thoughts.
    Dec 13 06:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Stock Picking Strategy That Beats The Market [View article]
    Thanks Tony. There are a couple approaches to low price to sales stocks. Ken Fisher uses price to sales less than one (usually less than 0.75) as an absolute filter to get the lowest ones in the market.

    You can scan for a relatively low P/S if you are looking for the 'best in the sector or industry', but it actually hurt performance significantly in this instance.
    Dec 12 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Stock Picking Strategy That Beats The Market [View article]
    Thanks - seriously thanks. It'll keep me researching and writing.
    Dec 12 07:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Stock Picking Strategy That Beats The Market [View article]
    Thanks for the comments. Portfolio123 does not have survivorship bias like Zacks Research Wizard - they do include all the stocks that went belly up or were delisted. As well, there is no look-ahead bias - it will only screen based on information available at that point in time. I strongly advise anyone looking for a robust screening/backtesting service to use it for $50 a month.
    Dec 12 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smooth Portfolio Volatility With Small Cap Gold Stocks [View article]
    Another African mining article worth a read that deals with the risk of nationalization.
    http://read.bi/vhJQcf
    Dec 10 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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