Seeking Alpha

Kurtis Hemmerling

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Kurtis Hemmerling's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • S&P 500 Stock Picking Strategy That Beats The Market [View article]
    Interesting. Any thoughts why it works? It would seem that it is based on trailing 8 week momentum which is not a commonly used period. Upside gain is negatively correlated to positive 4 week momentum (better buying pullbacks in this short frame) but positively correlated to 3 month, 6 month, and one year holding. Is the selling at the end of the year used to take advantage of the Christmas rally and January effect? I'm interested in your thoughts.
    Dec 13 06:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Stock Picking Strategy That Beats The Market [View article]
    Thanks Tony. There are a couple approaches to low price to sales stocks. Ken Fisher uses price to sales less than one (usually less than 0.75) as an absolute filter to get the lowest ones in the market.

    You can scan for a relatively low P/S if you are looking for the 'best in the sector or industry', but it actually hurt performance significantly in this instance.
    Dec 12 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Stock Picking Strategy That Beats The Market [View article]
    Thanks - seriously thanks. It'll keep me researching and writing.
    Dec 12 07:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Stock Picking Strategy That Beats The Market [View article]
    Thanks for the comments. Portfolio123 does not have survivorship bias like Zacks Research Wizard - they do include all the stocks that went belly up or were delisted. As well, there is no look-ahead bias - it will only screen based on information available at that point in time. I strongly advise anyone looking for a robust screening/backtesting service to use it for $50 a month.
    Dec 12 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smooth Portfolio Volatility With Small Cap Gold Stocks [View article]
    Another African mining article worth a read that deals with the risk of nationalization.
    http://read.bi/vhJQcf
    Dec 10 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smooth Portfolio Volatility With Small Cap Gold Stocks [View article]
    Nov.11th - Bloomberg
    Julius Malema’s suspension from South Africa’s ruling Africa National Congress may reduce the risk the government will nationalize mines, bolstering investor confidence in the world’s biggest producer of platinum and chrome.

    The ANC yesterday suspended Youth League leader Malema, 30, for five years, saying he had undermined party unity and damaged its reputation. The group’s spokesman Floyd Shivambu was also cast out of the party for three years. Both may appeal the decision. Four other league officials were given suspended sentences for disrupting a party meeting.

    “Julius Malema had become synonymous with everything investors didn’t want to see,” Razia Khan, head of Africa economic research at Standard Chartered Plc in London, said in a telephone interview yesterday. The ANC’s action addresses “a source of significant political risk in South Africa.”
    Dec 10 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boosting Gains In A High-Growth CAN SLIM Stock Screening Strategy [View article]
    As my handle reveals - I too have switched gears. I'll look into CAN SLIM and dividends but I'm not sure what'll turn up. Usually small companies that are aggressively growing need to re-invest cash flows to keep up the growth. That being said, I do think that you can get huge capital price run-ups with superior dividend yields by using certain techniques. I've written about them in my latest book but you can freely peruse my website that is linked to in the left side menu as to what these strategies are.
    Dec 6 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider Being A Bear Market Buyer [View article]
    Got it. I am bull too. This was meant to be a timeless strategy piece and not directed at the markets right now.
    Dec 4 09:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Defensive Income Portfolio, Sans MLPs, For Today's Volatile Market [View article]
    No, just that it is slightly below the yield cutoff, but more importantly it has negative 5 year dividend growth. This is due to the 2006 / 2007 year. It would have made positive 4 year dividend growth so if you want to get ahead of the bell curve on this scan...
    Dec 3 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Defensive Income Portfolio, Sans MLPs, For Today's Volatile Market [View article]
    Have a 50% bond and 50% equity mix. Every time the market drops 10%, switch some of your bonds to stocks. Leave enough ammo to buy even if market drops up to 60-70% from peak to trough. Weight the bigger purchases when market is down 30%+ (i.e. possibly only use 10% of your bonds to buy when market drops 10%, and 20% from peak. If market is down 50% - use a larger portion of bonds to buy). This is opposite to market timing but will work 100% of the time provided the market doesn't go down and stay there for eternity. At least you will be buying bigger yields when market is low. Your relative yield will be lower as market rises but your yield on cost or total dividends (distributions) will remain high.

    Don't forget to re-balance and put some money back into bonds once market turns upwards. Do the same by selling in stages (but at higher prices of course).

    Also make sure that you are not dollar-cost-averaging on garbage stock. Only do this in the best stocks when the market is pounding everything. Averaging down in poor stocks is a sure way to get hammered.
    Nov 28 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Defensive Income Portfolio, Sans MLPs, For Today's Volatile Market [View article]
    I run multiple strategies for all sorts of investors and traders and keep my personal investments private (i.e. I purposely don't write about them so I don't need to disclose. I don't feel that it is everyones right to know how I invest). I try to highlight the merit of each strategy I write about with back-tested performance including robustness checks. I believe that investment decisions should be based on sound theory and some historical proof - not mirroring what someone else does - which can often be taken out of context.
    Nov 28 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Defensive MLPs Protect Against the 2 Week S&P 500 Freefall? [View article]
    I agree. I do have multiple strategies for targeting ADRs and foreign companies listed on US exchanges. However, I like to keep my apples and oranges separate. Some portfolios work better with a different batch of sell rules.
    Nov 28 07:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Defensive MLPs Protect Against the 2 Week S&P 500 Freefall? [View article]
    I didn't have them in originally but SA woud not publish my article without them. Sorry about that - I think it looks ridiculous too.
    Nov 28 07:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks With Jumping Yields, All Potential Buys [View article]
    I have a specific strategy for foreign stocks. There is no reason not to use it with ADRs other than I like to keep my portfolios separate so I can quickly determine weighting within each portfolio and between portfolios for diversification purposes.

    Please note the following two articles Seeking Alpha articles that talk about foreign stocks in emerging markets and ADRs:

    http://bit.ly/tqJ7YP

    http://bit.ly/rDDeP2
    Nov 26 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How High Yield Investing Can Make Or Break Your Portfolio [View article]
    I forgot to mention implied volatility in options. When a sector in general has high IV - often means higher risk trading in my opinion. Not to say it can't be higher profitability if you are correct - just higher risk if making a one time bet.
    Nov 17 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
476 Comments
407 Likes