2 Speculative Growth Stocks Worth a Second Look [View article]
Make no mistake, these are not value stocks. Due to lack of earnings on ALKS, you can't really value it based on money in the bank. However, they are headed in the right direction with management decisions and for those that want an early entry for the next couple of years....
DAR is at the top of its industry in revenue and earnings growth. It is not everyone's cup of tea but accelerating earnings do come at higher valuations.
Trading PEAD: 16 Stocks With Earnings Surprises Over 50% [View article]
I used the term 60 days as this was the time used in one of the research papers I based this article on (although the study was for Canadian markets - but the US PEAD is also mentioned).
"Is Trading on Earnings Surprises a Profitable Strategy? Canadian Evidence"
They did not separate how much is attributed for the first week, weeks, or month. They waited until 2 days after announcements to buy. I am assuming 2 months since the month before earnings would have its own effect not based on the previous surprise.
Research In Motion, Cisco and Aeropostale Near 52-Week Lows: Good Values and Traps [View article]
There is an average of 3.5 years left remaining on the stock options already given out. The effects of handing out derivatives as incentives continues to effect current share prices, and will do so for up to 5.5 more years until the last ones expire.
They do currently dilute shares and buy them back. You will see this take place for years to come. Yes, its not as bad as 2 or 3 years ago. But they started down this path thats not easy to do a 180 from. I feel its one of the reasons investors are hesitant to drive prices up. Watch them dilute it all over again.
Identifying the Value in American Oriental Bioengineering [View article]
How did you get this published? I wrote a piece on AOB a few days ago and they said it was too illiquid and low a price to publish an article on. I had to submit it to my instablog. seekingalpha.com/insta...
Cheap Stocks Near 52 Week Lows: Buys or Unwise? [View article]
I agree that they are not using cash effectively. The point on CSCO is that if they change some of management's practices they might get more investors. They do have a big free cash flow, but it is being squandered without the full effect reaching the shareholder.
If they quit issuing so many stock options and used cash to give a large dividend instead of masking dilution with buybacks, I think they would attract a certain investor group. We'll see what they do as they refocus and shut down the Flip business.
Netflix: Lack of Legal Competition Creates Huge Upside [View article]
We could argue this all day. Google had a cooling off of PE ratios but 3.5 years from IPO it still only cooled to 40. Is my PE number arbitrary? Yes. Is this the next Google? Likely not. Do my numbers assume that Netflix still has more high-growth ahead of it and new countries to open up? Yes. Might it fail? Yes. Is assuming that PE ratios fall in half (from 80 to 40) for this stock in under 3 years time too optimistic a forecast? Maybe. But the point is, my estimates are in-line with current earnings forecasts. Apply your own PE and give a reason for it. I don't see this market peaking in 3 years time, but maybe you can explain why you do.
But the whole point is that I see potential in what they are doing and if another company comes along that can do it better for less, then we can discuss the pros and cons of that. With a 30% of the float short, do I expect criticism? Absolutely, which is what I am getting.
However, shorts are speculating just as wildly as the longs. This is a big unknown that I do think it has potential.... although it is not my personal cup of tea. And the shorts are also in the minority, although they have the loudest voices. To balance this board out, I'd really like to hear from some longs as well instead of going round and round with a handful of short-sellers.
Netflix: Lack of Legal Competition Creates Huge Upside [View article]
High growth stocks with momentum may not give better entries. Again, I am not a high growth investor but a value investor. I wanted to give reasons why a high-growth investor would buy this over the next 3 years.
Yes, I think growth will come from foreign markets and the US is simply going to fund that in the short-term. As a buy and hold for 3 years, IF you are a high-growth investors looking for a speculative play, this may be suitable. But do your own DD and make up your own mind.
Netflix: Lack of Legal Competition Creates Huge Upside [View article]
If you look to the annual report by Netflix, they quote increases in cost of revenue as being tied to shipping DVD's, but there are also fulfillment requirements such as warehouses and extra staff needed for DVD's shipping in addition to postage.
Yes, initially there will be great costs of growing and converting their online library, and they suggest that it may outpace revenue growth in the short-term. But this article is looking almost 3 years down the road. I live in Canada and have not come across another legal option like Netflix. Once they have a large enough library they will not need to as aggressively add titles on a percentage basis. Thus, margins will increase on their larger base of paying customers. If they continue to add titles at the pace they are now, and subscribers double, cost of revenue goes way down. In a couple years as they phase out DVDs and sell their stock plus physical warehouses and property, this will lower expenses further and provide a cash infusion.
Am I saying this is a sure buy? At no point did I say that. Does this have some huge potential globally in 3 years as they have massive subscribers bases, little physical property or assets, big revenue and yes... increased profit margins as they will be adding far few titles percentage-wise to their revenue? Absolutely. I can't see saturation for a while yet since many countries that don't even have legal comparative alternative. It looks more like a monopoly at this point with a ripe market.
If there is a harsher crack-down on illegal movie streaming, this will also be good for business.
All I am saying is that for a higher risk growth stock, I can see why people are investing in Netflix. Am I one of them? No, I prefer small cap value stocks with high momentum. But I do understand why high growth investors are taking their chances with this.
3 Rising Cash Flow Stars and Related Market Plays [View article]
What I am saying is how do you know when investors will jump on a bandwagon and react to said article in advance? You don't. I still say that based on rising cash flows this is a good buy. Now that there is lawsuit accusations I am saying that with this new piece of news, the risk just went up. It'll scare away investors.
There might be a negative article on the new iPad 2's, but will it make Apple shares dump 40%? And if it did, who would've guessed it would have that effect?
I'm saying nobody, not even you, could have forecast this price drop. So to say it was lousy research is another way of saying I'm not omniscient. I'd like you to show me someone who did forecast a one-day 40% price drop in the stock.
3 Rising Cash Flow Stars and Related Market Plays [View article]
I'm saying that there are accusations against ABAT. My article was held up for 3 days by SA and by then I needed to put in updated charts - so my writing was well before Variant View unnknownduderino. Care to put your real name down?
I like ABAT, but am not usually one to invest in companies with negative news - proven or not. My analysis stands, but the risk factor went up.
3 Rising Cash Flow Stars and Related Market Plays [View article]
It would be impossible for me to know that Variant View would write a piece accusing them of fraud and a lawsuit would potentially ensue. Its unfortunate, but it does happen from time to time.
Shady accounting leads to glowing fundamentals, but that is not to say that all glowing fundamentals have shady accounting practices. You write based on what you see, and unfortunately there are sometimes rocks under the water - or at least allegations of rocks that will drop stock prices.
I contacted the company and the information posted by Yahoo is incorrect - which should also be adjusted soon. They do indeed have a future implied yield of 5.5% and a correction to the article has been submitted. Thanks for pointing this out.
2 Speculative Growth Stocks Worth a Second Look [View article]
DAR is at the top of its industry in revenue and earnings growth. It is not everyone's cup of tea but accelerating earnings do come at higher valuations.
16 Stocks Building Steam on Upgraded Sales, Strong Earnings Growth [View article]
Some think its a good early entry but here are some the reasons why China had difficulty.
Trading PEAD: 16 Stocks With Earnings Surprises Over 50% [View article]
"Is Trading on Earnings Surprises a Profitable Strategy? Canadian Evidence"
They did not separate how much is attributed for the first week, weeks, or month. They waited until 2 days after announcements to buy. I am assuming 2 months since the month before earnings would have its own effect not based on the previous surprise.
Research In Motion, Cisco and Aeropostale Near 52-Week Lows: Good Values and Traps [View article]
They do currently dilute shares and buy them back. You will see this take place for years to come. Yes, its not as bad as 2 or 3 years ago. But they started down this path thats not easy to do a 180 from. I feel its one of the reasons investors are hesitant to drive prices up. Watch them dilute it all over again.
Identifying the Value in American Oriental Bioengineering [View article]
seekingalpha.com/insta...
10 Diversified Sectors and Upgraded Stocks That Can Lower Risk [View article]
Cheap Stocks Near 52 Week Lows: Buys or Unwise? [View article]
If they quit issuing so many stock options and used cash to give a large dividend instead of masking dilution with buybacks, I think they would attract a certain investor group. We'll see what they do as they refocus and shut down the Flip business.
Netflix: Lack of Legal Competition Creates Huge Upside [View article]
But the whole point is that I see potential in what they are doing and if another company comes along that can do it better for less, then we can discuss the pros and cons of that. With a 30% of the float short, do I expect criticism? Absolutely, which is what I am getting.
However, shorts are speculating just as wildly as the longs. This is a big unknown that I do think it has potential.... although it is not my personal cup of tea. And the shorts are also in the minority, although they have the loudest voices. To balance this board out, I'd really like to hear from some longs as well instead of going round and round with a handful of short-sellers.
Netflix: Lack of Legal Competition Creates Huge Upside [View article]
Yes, I think growth will come from foreign markets and the US is simply going to fund that in the short-term. As a buy and hold for 3 years, IF you are a high-growth investors looking for a speculative play, this may be suitable. But do your own DD and make up your own mind.
Netflix: Lack of Legal Competition Creates Huge Upside [View article]
Yes, initially there will be great costs of growing and converting their online library, and they suggest that it may outpace revenue growth in the short-term. But this article is looking almost 3 years down the road. I live in Canada and have not come across another legal option like Netflix. Once they have a large enough library they will not need to as aggressively add titles on a percentage basis. Thus, margins will increase on their larger base of paying customers. If they continue to add titles at the pace they are now, and subscribers double, cost of revenue goes way down. In a couple years as they phase out DVDs and sell their stock plus physical warehouses and property, this will lower expenses further and provide a cash infusion.
Am I saying this is a sure buy? At no point did I say that. Does this have some huge potential globally in 3 years as they have massive subscribers bases, little physical property or assets, big revenue and yes... increased profit margins as they will be adding far few titles percentage-wise to their revenue? Absolutely. I can't see saturation for a while yet since many countries that don't even have legal comparative alternative. It looks more like a monopoly at this point with a ripe market.
If there is a harsher crack-down on illegal movie streaming, this will also be good for business.
All I am saying is that for a higher risk growth stock, I can see why people are investing in Netflix. Am I one of them? No, I prefer small cap value stocks with high momentum. But I do understand why high growth investors are taking their chances with this.
7 Rocket Stocks With Low-Risk PEG Ratios [View article]
3 Rising Cash Flow Stars and Related Market Plays [View article]
There might be a negative article on the new iPad 2's, but will it make Apple shares dump 40%? And if it did, who would've guessed it would have that effect?
I'm saying nobody, not even you, could have forecast this price drop. So to say it was lousy research is another way of saying I'm not omniscient. I'd like you to show me someone who did forecast a one-day 40% price drop in the stock.
3 Rising Cash Flow Stars and Related Market Plays [View article]
I like ABAT, but am not usually one to invest in companies with negative news - proven or not. My analysis stands, but the risk factor went up.
3 Rising Cash Flow Stars and Related Market Plays [View article]
Shady accounting leads to glowing fundamentals, but that is not to say that all glowing fundamentals have shady accounting practices. You write based on what you see, and unfortunately there are sometimes rocks under the water - or at least allegations of rocks that will drop stock prices.
7 Very Uncommon Growth Stocks [View article]