Seeking Alpha

Kurtis Hemmerling

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Kurtis Hemmerling's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • How To Get Huge Yields Plus Large Capital Gains In Dividend Stocks [View article]
    My comments were based on future indicated dividends. They chose to not pay out Q2 dividend but they expect 3rd and 4th quarter free cash flows to improve. I haven't read anywhere that they disposed of their dividend policy - but it seemed like a one-time (or possibly a two-time) deal.

    Assuming dividends are not permentantly cut (and the wording of the company seems to suggest it will be re-instated), this provides a good forward looking yield.
    Sep 8 02:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Offers 5 Growth Stocks At A Potential Bargain [View article]
    Correction has been made. I apologize for the mistake.
    Sep 8 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Income Investing Strategy That Boosted A Dividend By 500% [View article]
    I have written another article that attempts to answer your question David Fish. It should be published soon. The preliminary results are quite attriactive. I ran two types of market timing rules over the strategy to enhance it.

    Time has not permitted me to answer Cheesehuskers questions in the article.

    I have also ran a simple scan on the entire stock universe with no regard to yield as you wanted - but the very low yields (jumping from 1% to 1.25%) kept messing things up. If you demand yield spikes to the tune of 4 - 5x the 5 year average yield - then things get very interesting. I might add this into some article later if there is enough interest.
    Sep 7 08:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Income Investing Strategy That Boosted A Dividend By 500% [View article]
    I'll definitely do another piece soon that will consider your 3rd point. Valid points for 1 and 2 - noted. Thanks for commenting.
    Sep 7 11:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Uncommon Sense Growth Strategy For Bull And Bear Markets [View article]
    This wasn't meant to be momentum investing actually - which I do a lot of and statistically has a premium built into it in basically all - except Japanese - markets.

    This scan comes from a popular 'value - book/value' scan. The 10 year and short-term gains were terrible. I adjusted the value to only pick 'glamour stocks' with all the other metrics being identical, and very high gains emerged. Of course, this is proven only by looking backwards and new market dynamics should be taken seriously.
    Sep 4 09:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's How To Get Sustainable 7% Dividend Yields When Markets Crash [View article]
    The idea is not to ignore capital gains and losses. When a good company that increases dividends every year has a temporary spike in yields due to a crashing market - this is often the best time to buy as you are most likely to gain from a long-term locked in dividend and long-term capital appreciation.

    When yields are high due to a broad market sell-off, this is a far better time to buy than an extended bull market where you lock-in with low yields and a much higher chance of long-term capital loss. It is actually the best of both worlds provided you have sturdy stocks with a solid earning track record.

    Overvalued blue chips = low dividend yields and higher risk of capital loss.

    Look back to the markets when solid stocks that paid 3-5% dividend yields suddenly had a spike to 6-7%+ due to falling share prices provided it was from mass market selling and not one stock dying in a bull market due to bad fundamentals. Chances are, in 1 to 2 years the capital gains were also significant as investors pushed prices back up to where yields settled in at long term averages of 3-5% again.

    It is a way of getting a great yield combined with a simple market timing model for long-term investors. Buffett does something similar using long-term P/E averages in falling markets. If you are playing swings from month to month - I suggest not doing so on income stocks.
    Aug 28 10:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell These S&P 500 Stocks With Low Fundamental Ratings [View article]
    Two free sources are listed in this article I wrote about the F-Score system. www.moneycrashers.com/.../

    The paid one is through AAII.

    I wrote a lot of articles earlier this year that merely commented on various investing strategies by many well-known investors which reflects on their expertise alone. I now attempt to take it a step further with back-testing. I will write an article later on that details a modified version of the Lynch-style investing with market timing (it is very simple and straightforward) and has a strong year after year gain.The preliminary results are a 10 year - 1,000% total gain.

    I'll need to dig through the numbers and data more, but it is a very promising early result that invests in 100 - 200 stocks at a time when the market is in a technical bull.
    Aug 28 12:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's How To Get Sustainable 7% Dividend Yields When Markets Crash [View article]
    Last post got lost so I am retyping again. I ran a quick scan using only the S&P 500 stocks with current yields over 3 but had average yields over 5%, 2 years ago. As there were big highs and lows, a 5% average yield for 2009 should allow most the stocks to get near or above 7% yields when prices were compacted.

    The list includes MO, AEE, AEP, T, BMY, CNP, CTL, CINF, ED, D, DTE, DUK, DD, LLY, FTR, GE, HCP, HCN, HCBK, TEG, KIM, LEG, LO, MTB, MWV, MRK, MCHP, GAS, NI, NYX, OKE, POM, PFE, PM, PBI, PCL, PGN, PLD, RRD, RAI, SCG, SO, SE, TE, VTR, VZ, VNO, WIN, XEL.

    Some of these may not have reached the 7% yield exactly, and others may not be considered 'good' stocks. But 10% of the stocks on the S&P 500 made the short list for a further inspection. If you included the entire stock universe with more rigid filters - I am sure you will find many decent stocks.

    Forgive me as I am on vacation on the other side of the country visiting family and don't have time to properly dig into each stock to see which actually hit 7% and which didn't.
    Aug 24 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's How To Get Sustainable 7% Dividend Yields When Markets Crash [View article]
    Forgive me please as I am on vacation across the country visiting family. This is a down and dirty scan using only stocks in the S&P 500 which averaged yields over 5%, 2 years ago. The current yields are over 3% to prevent dividends being suspended.

    50 companies make the list. Granted, I used 5% "average" as 2009 had some massive highs as well that would dilute the yield. The price lows should have reached 7% dividend yields plus in many of the cases.

    The stocks on the list include MO, AEE, AEP, T, BMY, CNP, CTL, CINF, ED, D, DTE, DUK, DD, LLY, FTR, GE, HCP, HCN, HCBK, TEG, KIM, LEG, LO, MTB, MWV, MRK, MCHP, GAS, NI, NYX, OKE, POM, PFE, PM, PNW, PBI, PCL, PGN, PLD, RRD, RAI, SCG, SO, SE, TE, VTR, VZ, VNO, WIN, XEL.

    Some on the list may have fell a bit shy of 7% and others may not be suitable companies that fit into the 'good' category. I'd have to hand-check these first before saying for sure. Still, only filtering through 500 stocks gives you a lot of potential candidates where locking in at high yields would help you sleep at night with a somewhat secure annual payout - while others are taking nitroglycerin pills for their heart.
    Aug 24 01:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's How To Get Sustainable 7% Dividend Yields When Markets Crash [View article]
    During the last market crash stocks went on more than a 1/2 price fire sale - and we are talking the S&P 500. If they had 3.5% dividends before the crash - they had 7% dividends during provided they followed the policy of raising dividends every year - as quality companies do. I am on vacation but when I get to my own computer I can give you a list of good companies that had 7% implied dividends - there were quite a few.

    The point is - buy and lock-in when dividends get that high and ignore capital gains and losses while you sit with big dividends until the market returns...even if that is 2 or three years down the road.
    Aug 23 05:31 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's How To Get Sustainable 7% Dividend Yields When Markets Crash [View article]
    You'd be surprised to see how many people pump dividend stocks in any market.

    As the markets are cap-sizing, I felt it timely to put a few solid companies with increasing earnings and dividends on the radar to buy when dividends hit the right threshold. Yes, the title was meant to grab your attention - but you'd also be amazed at how many people pick up blue chips in any market and are only getting yields of 2 - 4 percent instead of picking them up when yields hit 6 - 8%.

    People are having tunnel vision on capital losses right now when they should be focusing on earnings and dividend yields that they can lock into at the right annual income payout.
    Aug 22 06:09 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Uncommon Sense Growth Strategy For Bull And Bear Markets [View article]
    Prices have broken down below $52 support - which is generally not a great sign. The market has went up but this stock has merely churned over a large amount of shares - another not so good sign. On that volume you would hope that shares would pop but no go. That being said - earnings have been revised upwards in the past 30 days which is positive - but in bear markets it is the technical price moves that win out. I think if the P/E fell back to longer-term averages of 12 - this would give you a price close to longer-term support of $35. Not saying that will happen, but in choppy/down markets - who wants to pay premium price when a potential sale is right around the corner?
    Aug 22 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will the Next Apple or Google Be Found Among These Micro Caps? [View article]
    Please read my above comment to another poster. The secondary list was not a list of stocks to buy but merely showing a process on how to numerically filter for a basket of stocks, and then slowly prune away undesirables from the list.
    Aug 22 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profitable Investments and Strategies for a Market Crash [View article]
    That's my point. With put-selling your are getting the same risk-reward to exact price movement with only the cost per options contract - you are not buying equity so no cost incurred unless prices really dump and the contract is exercised.

    It may mean the difference between a $20 round trip - or a $40 round trip.

    If the net debit is $200, no broker I've ever seen will allow you to make the trade with only $200 in your account. B/C they are actually performing 2 transactions (you are making a trade on both the equity and the derivative market), they want the full amount of the equity transaction in your account - even though in the blink of an eye it is returned from the options premium.

    Is Ameritrade otherwise? I dunno.
    Aug 19 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profitable Investments and Strategies for a Market Crash [View article]
    True, but how much does it cost? My broker charges double the amount which means they are simply automating the process. I also need - not the net difference between the buy/write - but the full amount to buy the shares in my account. This suggests that it really is two separate transactions being executed one after the other.
    Aug 19 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
476 Comments
407 Likes