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Kurtis Hemmerling

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  • When To Buy And Sell Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
    You are correct David. The whole point of this system is to grow your income stream as fast as possible. The focus is on a sustainable dividend stream that is 'hyper-compounded' as to the portfolio.

    The idea is that at some point you will live off dividends only, hence the focus on building that up for this strategy only. I have found this to be true with many dividend growth investors.
    Feb 3 12:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Stocks Struggle In 2012 [View article]
    Did you include dividends? Becuase I ran the very same thing as a double-check and got 5.3% total return on the top 50 yielding stocks. Or are you just comparing capital returns?
    Dec 31 03:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Deep Value Blue-Chip System That Beats The Market [View article]
    Done. It has 30%+ DD in 08/09 and an annual CAGR of 12% (dividends included in that number and run since Dec/99). An average of 15 stocks held and 4-5 stocks rotated in and out on average on rebalance date.
    Oct 26 03:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Incredibly Boring Investment Strategy That Works [View article]
    You mean put Nokia in the ETF strategy? Sorry, I am not sure what you mean
    Sep 6 05:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Successful Dividend Capture Model [View article]
    So is this an overnight strategy only? It would seem so or else staying invested for any length of time would introduce far too many factors other than any ex-dividend effect to mar the results.

    Interesting for prop trading, which I have done, but I am not sure that the average SA reader engages in this type of active trading with direct market access. Good article and I hope at least a few SA readers appreciate this for what it is.
    Sep 6 12:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tactics To Hyper-Compound Dividend And Income Streams [View article]
    Absolutely. That's all one can ask is to keep an open mind and try new ideas out on a small portion of the portfolio before fully trusting it and ramping things up.

    In the works right now....we are developing a new sort of fund that basically combines about 7 or 8 income strategies (hyper-compounding included but other stock and ETF ones as well) and a growth fund will be released with similar ideals as well. It will be linked to the Foliofn brokerage for low cost ($29/month) and you have veto power over any recommended holding. The concept we are running with is that 7 or 8 strategists doing what they do best should provide better diversification than staying 100% invested in a static group of diversified stocks. Some strategies work well in down markets, others in side-ways markets, some hold high cash at certain times, etc. etc.
    It'll be a couple more months at least but we are shooting for a 'fund of hedge funds' so to speak for the average retail investor who can use with small amounts of capital with 100% transparency, incredibly low cost and total control at every stage. Should be interesting.
    Sep 1 06:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking Risk Into Account In The Active Vs. Passive Debate [View article]
    So you think that the CAPM is the best method to invest? That beta and volatility equals risk and more risk equals more potential reward?

    That is where we differ. I look to the fundamentals to choose solid stocks and time purchases when value increases (i.e. prices made a volatile pullback). If I am happy with the rev/earnings/future prospects and market crash doubles my expected return (I was getting 5% yield and without fundamentals changing I now get 10% solely from a price drop), I buy regardless of volatility.

    Volatility is a measure that can be manipulated by people trading the stock (hedge funds, HFTs, etc). If you follow that too closely you will become an emotional investor as they take your shares away from you. Much better to stick to fundamentals and buy when your target valuation is hit. Its why some investors buy on dips instead of selling with a traililng stop-loss.

    If you really believe what you just said... in efficient markets and such... then buy a massive index ETF and leave the stock picking to the rest of us. Or randomly pick 30 stocks since volatilty decreases with the amount of stocks picked (even if they are all highly volatile) and forget about fundamentals. It makes no difference to me.

    Again, I am curious what you meant about options in your comment below. It seems you think that options are over-valued. How is that possible if the market is efficient? Please explain what you meant.
    Aug 31 01:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tactics To Hyper-Compound Dividend And Income Streams [View article]
    Sorry for the confusion. This is not about investing in one company. That was for illustrative purposes. I tested it on a portfolio of 10 stocks in the article and included this comment:

    "Every six months buy only those with the best valuations (perhaps only 50% of your list, or the best 15 or 20 if the list is extremely big)"
    Aug 29 09:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forecasting The Future Return On A Stock: McDonald's [View article]
    Good baiting question....
    "If we use the 2013 forecast earnings of $2.38 and apply the forecast growth rate of 33.6% we get $10.13. If we use an average PE of 100 this is worth over $1,000 per share in 5 years. And if current PE ratios hold this will be worth $3,000 per share. What could go wrong?"
    Aug 28 10:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Common Misconceptions About Buy-And-Hold Investing [View article]
    Ok. But they also average up as prices rise so the two should equal out I think. Why not combine market timing with blue chip investing and start putting bonds into equities during nasty bear markets and even buying on leverage after markets drop 40%+? The regular purchases could go back into bonds during the upmarket as your account de-leverages on its own and you build up more firepower for the next big drop?

    I like long-term investing but I also think you can combine them into a hybrid approach that isn't really trading nor is it buy and hold.
    Jul 11 11:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Does As Advertised [View article]
    Tongue in cheek as to my last comment. You did an very good job of presenting a variety of charts.
    Jun 21 08:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Low-Volatility Portfolio The Key To Investment Return? [View article]
    I am curious as to why this is so. I hope Shannon drills deeper into the individual securities instead of simply saying 'well, this is what happened in the past and we can assume it will work going forward'. I am a big fan of backtesting using strategy but I'm failing to see the 'why this works'. Is lower volatility due to lower risk in the securities? If so - define lower risk other than beta. What metrics made these better companies? Or is it that the types of investors drawn to these types of firms have guts of steel in all markets? If the latter is true and everyone, including emotional investors, now flock to these low volatility stocks and products - they won't stay low volatility for long. Then the next study will say - 'yes, it was low risk but when it dropped 90% it suddenly became high volatility so you shouldn't have been invested in it."

    I'm not knocking the article or the research done - I actually run a model based on the principles - yet I have this uneasy feeling that we are looking at the product of some actions that have not yet been determined. The 'why' is everything, and simply that it has happened for the last 40 years is something.
    Jun 14 12:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take A Pass On Leveraged ETFs [View article]
    I would be interested to know what percentage of people using triple-leveraged are day-traders, how many are using them for short-term hedges as most their capital is already invested and they cannot afford to come up with that kind of cash for a non-leveraged hedge, and how many investors are buying these ETFs long-term thinking they can actually triple the market movements as opposed to buy and hold.

    Equity leverage almost always comes at some price whether it be options premiums, interest fees or negative compounding.
    Jun 5 09:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High-Yielding Dividend Growth Strategy For Any Market [View article]
    I don't include taxes because they are different for everyone are vary wildly. I don't see too many articles that factor in taxes - its pretty much assumed you do that yourself.

    What else do you want to know? There are many discount brokers that offer $3 to $5 stock trades. 10 stocks every three months is $120 to $200 in fees max. Typically only 3 or 4 stocks are rebalance making this $36 to $80 per year. Slippage is minimal on these large-cap and very liquid stocks.

    What exactly do you want to for numbers that will have a serious impact on this specific model? I'd be happy to provide.
    May 22 11:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Successful Healthcare Basket-Trading Strategy [View article]
    Creating new investment models is a hobby but also my profession. I exclusively license my models to firms. I create other models which I allow other investors to examine who are non-members.

    My personal investments are inconsequential to your decision making process. I don't expect a sea captain to have designed the engine that powers the boat. Don't let what 'everyone else is doing' with their money influence your decisions. It creates herd mentality and poor returns.

    You are welcome not to invest in this model. This portfolio has doubled market returns over the past 3.5 months. Note that this scan picks up many small companies all with upgraded earnings. If analysts (those with so-called skin in the game) see a short-term upside, this will usually translate into stronger gains over a narrow trading window rather than betting against them over the well-known Medicare issue that has actually helped create value by keeping nervous investors away.
    Apr 5 10:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment