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Kurtis Hemmerling

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  • Could These 7 Stocks Double on Triple-Digit EPS Growth? [View article]
    I forgot to add one sentence that some of the REIT payout ratios that are in excess of 200 or 300% may need to double their EPS just to avoid share prices tanking. You cannot pay out double or triple your earnings before you erode your value.
    Mar 8 05:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 14 NYSE Dividend Kings: Mid and Small Caps With Low Payout Ratio [View article]
    I did my best to research these stocks. What I am trying to say is do your own due diligence. If I don't say that, someone always comes along and says that I'm not being thorough enough to highlight the risks. When I do pad my article with warnings, someone else comes along and says I'm not doing enough research.

    Just some disclaimers, that's all.
    Feb 8 06:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Applying Covered Call Strategy to Blue Chip Stocks [View article]
    I'm not entirely sure what you mean. With this strategy EK can fall 23% and you earn 17.6%. Even the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats index has been outperforming the S&P 500, and their methods leave much to be desired. Covered call writing returns out-perform holding the underlying asset on average as borne by such covered call indexes and funds.
    Jan 21 08:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Large And Liquid Stocks Lower Risk? [View article]
    Good point. Please see my most recent article on dividend growth stocks (actually it would be a frozen angel where one year or more maintained but didn't rise) and the stats begin after the dot-com boom to bust. More history would be better but notice the massive gap between large and liquid dividend growth stocks and other sorting methods.
    Jan 16 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Alpha In Discarded 'Dividend Growth' Stocks [View article]
    SA limited me to 10 charts so about 6 were put on the chopping block that were already embedded. Sorry
    Jan 15 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Discarded Gems' Of Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I will definitely test out what you suggest and show the impact short- and long-term of a dividend cut in a div growth stock, but where some dividend does exist.
    Dec 23 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Discarded Gems' Of Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    To answer a few questions...
    I use 2001 since, while there is history on stocks in general back to 1999, the rule I use requires dividend history 9 - 10 years before that point. I could start it at mid-point 2000 at the earliest - but I felt starting at the beginning of a year to be better.

    The 15 stock portfolio is not for sale and neither am I advocating it above any other ranking system you are comfortable with. It was merely to illustrate that with an extra hour of work you can create a more focused model suited to whatever your needs are. As you brought out, investors may want something totally different than my quick suggestion - I am just trying to generate addition dialog. I provided 2 other free ranking systems that have similar results if someone wants to use them.

    The ranking system is not the product of mindless data mining and does have logic. For instance, low PE speaks of dividend potential, I don't use div growth since the universe doesn't demand it, yield is important, I look to earnings quality for stability particularly in bad markets... the list goes on. Value is very important but you need to think of metrics that will keep you out of dying stocks and traps.

    If all you are looking for is validation of your ranking ideas, you can sign up for a free trial, make a list of the 5 or 6 factors that make sense and backtest well, and then cancel your sub and use it for the next 10 years. Or have the whole div growth community donate for one guy to have a sub and get him to run all their ideas. Or use other platforms that you can find. Or hire a very expensive financial planner who has his own software.

    I am not against buy/hold/re-invest but you still need to decide which stocks to buy. And once you define those reasons, what if a stock no longer meets them? Do you sell? What if your 30 stocks erode and rank lowly on those criteria you value over 10 years and there are 30 other stocks that exhibit those same characteristics in full measure? Do you pass them by or buy them with your dividend income or sell some of your other holdings to get into them or turn over your whole portfolio? Buy/Hold/Re-invest is great if you know you are holding a winning stock for the next 50 years - but if you can't see the future you do need to be flexible and open to selling and replacing at least once in a while.
    Dec 23 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Creating A Dividend Portfolio That Can Outperform The Market By A Big Margin [View article]
    Dividends are included in the screener for total return. I beg to differ that if dividends were not include the returns would be under-represented.
    Apr 30 04:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big 6 Dow Jones Stocks To Own Now [View article]
    Please see attached document for the closed trades (in order of highest closed % to the lowest)

    Please see this next document for the the daily portfolio performance that shows cash, amount invested and a day by day comparison with the actual benchmark. The last 2 columns show the comparitive returns of $100 invested in Dow Jones vs. the Big 6.
    Apr 12 02:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big 6 Dow Jones Stocks To Own Now [View article]
    I am not sure why you are ignoring dividends. This will give you only capital gains which is ignoring the full picutre.This system also uses cash management so what is listed is the portfolio return - not just simple stock pick return. Also, you are ignoring the closed trades and are just back-testing the current holdings. Let's look at the past few years of Dow Jones vs. these stocks.

    2007 - system underperformed by 4%
    2008 - system outperformed by 35%
    2009 - system outperformed by 5.3%
    2010 - system outperformed by 2.8%
    2011 - system outperformed by 5.1%
    2012 - system outperformed by 0.67%

    So far this year it is looking to underperform by 1.6%

    If you are asking for a list of the closed trades - then please do so. I am happy to provide more details but I don't appreciate someone simply trying to cast suspicion and doubt by matching open positions to an un-adjusted yahoo chart and claiming that I am making false claims.

    You'll note that I also have made this strategy available for free so there is little ulterior motive in trying to fool anyone.
    Apr 12 01:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Stocks Making 52 Week Lows, Only 1 To Buy [View article]
    We will see. My point is more that big high volume drops on bad news usually don't pop right back up. Yesterday was that big drop so I would wait. I am not saying that is what it is worth, I am saying that when sentiment sours and frustrated longs walk away you might see a dip that low. But again, we will see and after a week or two if it is firming up I would buy. As a former prop trader, I'd never buy after it breaks down on heavy volume to a fresh low.
    Apr 11 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Free Financial Stuff Can I Give You? [View instapost]
    Did you get this page? I have a new article that discusses how it is built and how to read it. Basically. the # of holdings dividend by 500 gives the % cash that should be invested right now.
    Apr 1 04:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One Trick To Protect Against The Next Bear Market [View article]
    No, a minus and a plus do not equal zero. You can have 100 shares of Apple and then short 100 shares of Apple with a perfect negative correlation. But the two are not independent - you have a neutral and perfectly hedged portfolio which means no gains are possible. Much different than having 2 products with no correlation to each other.
    Mar 27 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One Trick To Protect Against The Next Bear Market [View article]
    Thanks mrfisher111. The point of this article is to use price performance correlation to pare holdings in shaky markets, be holding mostly cash in the steep bear market decline and to signal buying early on in the new rally. The whole point of this was to prevent steep losses in bear markets, preserve cash and improve long-term CAGR when possible through shallower losses.
    Mar 21 12:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider Being A Bear Market Buyer [View article]
    Yes... I should update this article written over a year ago. I should include that buying stocks with strong fundamentals (e.g. electric utilities) with increasing yields which they can sustain is one scenario to buy.

    There are other factors to consider....

    I'd be wary of just going back and forth between bonds. At these low yields, what if money flooded into bonds during the bear market driving yields even lower... that can be a lot or risk to bear - sort of like buying into an extremely overbought market. Might have less risk just sitting on cash.
    Mar 18 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment