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Kurtis Hemmerling's  Instablog

Kurtis Hemmerling
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I am a quantitative model designer. I build customized portfolio solutions for brokerages, family offices and individual clients around the world. Some of the models required the capacity to trade hundreds of millions of dollars. I would best describe myself as a value investor looking for... More
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My book:
Myth-Busting the Stock Market: Developing Uncommon Sense By Challenging Financial Truisms
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  • Introduction To Free Investment Models

    Free and Public Investment Models

    Over the coming months I will be adding content to my Instablog section showing investors how they can build their own investment model using the principles that I write about in Seeking Alpha.

    The simplest way I know to follow these models is to have a paid account with the same stock screening and backtesting platform which I use, Portfolio123. If you sign up for a trial using the link here, you'll get 30 days of free trial instead of 15 days posted on their site.

    I want to be clear that these models are free. The principles will all be laid out for you to do on your own provided that you can find a data source which allows screening and ranking. Or perhaps a community project can be started by someone...I don't know. I will just provide you with the screen and you can go from there.

    Steps To Find the Free Screens

    Once you sign up for a P123 free trial account (I don't believe you need credit cards or anything), you can click on this link to go directly to the screen I have made public called Free Div Growth Screen 2. Yes, there is also another freebie div growth screen 1.

    To find this and many other public screens, click SCREEN and under the drop-down menu select P123 SCREENS. In the menu bar you will see a magnifying glass. Click it.

    (click to enlarge)

    It should take you to a page that looks like this:

    (click to enlarge)

    From here you can type in "Hemmerling" without the quotes in the Author field, or simply leave everything blank and hit search if you feel inclined to sift through 3,000 stock screens to see what gems might be hidden.

    Dividend Growth Safety Screen Holdings

    Below are the holdings of the Dividend Growth Safety Model which is submitted for publication as of April 10th, 2015. Before that, here are the steps to build this model yourself:

    1. Dividend Growth stocks in the Russell 1000 with at least 10 years of dividend growth
    2. 4 week rebalancing
    3. Calculation of the 100 day average of daily price beta
    4. Calculation of the 60 day average of ATRN (Average True Range Normalized)
    5. The stocks meeting criteria 1 and 2 are given a relative rank between 1 and 100 based on how low the beta is (lower beta gets a better score). Do the same for ATRN. Stocks with the best combined score are purchased and held.
    6. You only sell a stock if the combined average score is 80 or less (or if total score is 160 or less if you add the two scores together)

    Or, just run the screen 'as is' that I have provided. All the steps are done for you. And remember, more will be added later.

    As promised, here are the 20 portfolio holdings:

    (NASDAQ:SIAL)Sigma-Aldrich Corp16431.52
    (NYSE:FDO)Family Dollar Stores Inc.9014.72
    (NYSE:WM)Waste Management Inc.24600.51
    (NYSE:RSG)Republic Services Inc.14421.9
    (NYSE:CLX)Clorox Co (The)14235.02
    (NYSE:GIS)General Mills Inc.31105.97
    (NYSE:CHD)Church & Dwight Co. Inc.11170.9
    (NYSE:T)AT&T Inc173657.8
    (NYSE:KO)Coca-Cola Co (The)181276.3
    (NYSE:PG)Procter & Gamble Co (The)223224.2
    (NYSE:VZ)Verizon Communications Inc200643.2
    (NYSE:HCC)HCC Insurance Holdings Inc.5536.34
    (NASDAQ:COST)Costco Wholesale Corp65874.42
    (NYSE:CB)Chubb Corp23215.01
    (NYSE:TRV)Travelers Companies Inc (The)34088.76
    (NYSE:PEP)PepsiCo Inc143101
    (NYSE:BRO)Brown & Brown Inc4568.59
    (NYSE:WPC)W. P. Carey Inc6856.6
    (NYSE:KMB)Kimberly-Clark Corp39025.19
    (NYSE:WMT)Wal-Mart Stores Inc266517.9

    Stay tuned, more to come.

    Kurtis Hemmerling

    Apr 10 9:04 AM | Link | 5 Comments
  • What Free Financial Stuff Can I Give You?

    This blog is for anyone who reads my articles to chime in on what free stuff they would like to see at the portfolio management platform that I work with - I am hoping to build out a new section of free financial stuff.

    If you could make a wish-list freebies - what would it be?

    To get the creative juices flowing...

    • Market-timing indicators? (I have a new market-timing system soon to be published here)
    • Specific models or strategies?
    • Charting of stocks or ETFs?
    • Economic indicators?

    Its an open forum - you tell me what you'd like to see and I'll see what I can do.

    Also, open invitation to anyone who wants to join my new LinkedIn group where I post various systematic investing techniques.

    Systematic Investing Techniques - LinkedIn Group

    Apr 01 12:51 PM | Link | 6 Comments
  • Want To Follow Or Share Some Profitable Investing Techniques?

    I have created a new LinkedIn group that I would like to welcome any serious investor to join. The goal is to share investing techniques that individual investors have found to be profitable.

    LinkedIn Group: Systematic Investing Techniques

    What can you expect to find in this group?

    Do you like to watch two investing pros interact about what works for them? Perhaps it is some valuation timing technique or a simple way to time the market that you haven't thought about...but it is easy to execute.

    The group will be primarily based on fundamental trading rules that can be programmed into the Portfolio123 screening/backtesting engine (or some other screening program). All members can share and use new ideas in their own portfolios.

    It also can be used for newer investors with trading ideas. Perhaps a Portfolio123 member will run a quick screen and backtest to see how good (or bad) an idea is and to promote ideas to enhance it.

    Just click the link near the top, join and start interacting.


    Kurtis Hemmerling

    Mar 28 2:33 PM | Link | 1 Comment
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