Kyle Felciano
Kyle Felciano
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Thank you for your interest. Theoretically shorting a long ETF could work better, however in practice there are some issues. The first is that there is a borrowing cost to shorting anything, and therefore any gain from the tracking error is lost. The second would be the potential margin issue if your portfolio has little free buying power due to other factors (sold puts, other shorts, already on margin, etc...). Also if the bottom dropped out of the market you will have limited your hedging ability, and actually lose hedging power as the market drops (since your short liability would decrease, the percentage gain as part of the portfolio would drop as the price drops) and require rebalancing. Taking a very small out of the money put position in UPRO can give you the most bang for your buck, but this requires excellent market timing. There are no easy answers unfortunately.
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The return is also difficult to calculate if it goes down at this point because I don't know what premium it will continue to trade at, and it also depends on the timeframe as to the number of dividends collected. Just wanted to give a recap for people to get started and then do their own further research.
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