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Why Cheap Oil May Be Here To Stay
- Many investors are still skeptical that Saudi Arabia will hold firm on oil production.
- Increased global consumption due to falling prices is unlikely to offset North American production.
- US consumption is in a secular, structural decline due to increased efficiency and demographic changes. That's unlikely to change any time soon.
- The floor may not be where the Saudis think it is.
Herbalife: Last One Out, Turn Off The Lights
- Back in January, I argued that Carl Icahn might have a trick or two up his sleeve vis-à-vis Herbalife.
- Clearly, I was mistaken.
- Now that cracks have started to appear in Herbalife's business model, I suspect that Icahn will exit the trade as quickly as economic good sense allows.
- The longer institutional investors prop up a falling stock in a rising market, the higher the opportunity cost. Such a position quickly becomes indefensible.
- It's time to get short Herbalife. Hope is not an investment strategy.
5 Reasons Why Ebola Fears Are Likely To Grow
- There's been a huge push of late by both governments and the media to tamp down on Ebola fears.
- There are a number of reasons to suspect that Ebola fears will continue to grow going into the holiday season despite the messaging campaign.
- Fear is a buying opportunity.
eBay's PayPal Spin-Off Points To An Alibaba Takeover
- Alibaba is gearing up to make a major move into the Western Hemisphere.
- Emerging economies such as Russia, Eastern Europe and South America are the easiest for Alibaba to penetrate and are therefore the most likely targets.
- eBay is the most vulnerable of Alibaba's US-based competitors. This can be viewed as either an ominous or heaven-sent development for shareholders.
- With the spin-off of Paypal, a merger with Alibaba has the potential to be a win for everyone but Amazon.
Alibaba Is Coming Like A Freight Train
- The centrality of ecommerce to the Chinese real economy gives Alibaba a durable competitive advantage over its Western counterparts.
- China's consumer spending is projected to rise to 43 percent of GDP by 2015, and Alibaba will be there to sell advertising space on 71% of it.
- The Singles Day holiday belongs almost solely to Alibaba affiliated websites and dwarfs US Black Friday and Cyber Monday online sales combined.
- The results of Alibaba's mobile penetration and monetization efforts are intimidating to say the least.
- You're paying top dollar for all of these wonders, but it's worth it. Alibaba is already the supplier of choice for many of eBay's and Amazon's most successful sellers.
Apple's Payments Platform May Be Ready To Roll
- Evidence for a September 9th rollout of Apple's payments platform continues to mount.
- Apple's recently published patent offers the clearest picture yet of what such a platform might entail.
- The consistency between leaked PCBs and cases suggests that the iPhone 6 will employ NFC. However, this is not 100% certain.
- 2014 will be a watershed year for Cupertino and I am increasing my PT accordingly to $114.
Apple's Opportunity In India
- While China is well covered by analysts, India - Apple's fastest growing market - is widely ignored.
- India's middle class is expected to grow to more than triple current levels by 2025.
- India's relative poverty compared with more developed Asian markets presents a number of complications. However, India's middle class is already large enough to be the sole focus of Apple's attention.
- In order to achieve a breakout, Apple has adopted a uniquely Indian marketing strategy that rests with "EMIs" and the cachet of Apple's premium brand.
- For Apple, bringing India into the fold hinges on convincing India's middle class that they are getting value for money and credit expansion.
Apple's Tax Bill Is About To Get Much, Much Bigger
- The European Commission has announced that it will launch a formal investigation into Apple's tax arrangements in Ireland.
- The Commission's investigation is part of a global crackdown on multinational corporations launched by the OECD and endorsed by the G20 known as the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting Action.
- The adoption of tax harmonization rules by the majority of European states would effectively eliminate the most profitable opportunities for cross-border tax arbitrage regardless of US adoption.
- Depending on Apple's capital allocation strategy, BEPS has the potential to be either a windfall or a significant hit for Apple investors in the mid term.
Apple Outspends Google On Acquisitions In 2013
- Apple has significantly increased its M&A spend over the last five quarters, topping Google for the first time in 2013 ($1.61 bn vs. $1.45 bn, adjusted).
- These acquisitions cover a wide range of technologies, notably indoor GPS, maps/navigation, predictive search, health-tracking, infrared motion-sensing/3D scanning, video data compression, and low-power wireless radio technology.
- This surge in M&A activity, combined with a renewed HR push by Apple indicates that the company intends to release multiple new product categories in 2014.
- Ukraine Is The Key To Putin's Eurasian Union
- Samsung And PayPal Declare War On Apple
- Apple Is Building A Mobile Payments Platform To Rival PayPal
- Can Microsoft Fire Bill Gates?
- Apple's R&D Spend Points To Multiple New Products Exiting The Pipeline
- Apple: Buy The Dip And Go Long The 2014 Product Cycle
- Herbalife: Time To Hold Or Fold?
- Apple Roars Into A Chinese New Year
- Silicon Valley Embraces Bitcoin While Central Banks Circle The Wagons
- Apple Bears Throw In The Towel
- Is Bitcoin A Threat To Western Union?
- Wall Street Doesn't Understand Bitcoin Yet, But It Will
- Apple's Italian Tax Woes Are Just The Tip Of The Iceberg
- A Microsoft Spin-Off May Be In The Cards Regardless Of CEO Pick
- Twitter Likely To Fall By 25% Due To Legacy Expenses
- How Apple Won The War For Education
- The Magpies Of India: How The Cash For Gold Market Came To Dominate The World's Oldest Democracy
- 10 Catalysts That Are Paving The Way For Apple $700
- Worried About Default Risk? Ask Santa For Options
- The U.S. Defaulted On Its Debt In 1979, And The Results Weren't Pretty
- A Sneak Peek Inside Apple's R&D Lab
- Warren Buffett On Ben Graham's Biggest Mistake
- Winners And Losers In A World Without Cookies