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Kyle Spencer

 
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  • eBay's PayPal Spin-Off Points To An Alibaba Takeover
    Tue, Sep. 30 BABA 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Alibaba is gearing up to make a major move into the Western Hemisphere.
    • Emerging economies such as Russia, Eastern Europe and South America are the easiest for Alibaba to penetrate and are therefore the most likely targets.
    • eBay is the most vulnerable of Alibaba's US-based competitors. This can be viewed as either an ominous or heaven-sent development for shareholders.
    • With the spin-off of Paypal, a merger with Alibaba has the potential to be a win for everyone but Amazon.
  • Alibaba Is Coming Like A Freight Train
    Fri, Sep. 26 BABA 87 Comments

    Summary

    • The centrality of ecommerce to the Chinese real economy gives Alibaba a durable competitive advantage over its Western counterparts.
    • China's consumer spending is projected to rise to 43 percent of GDP by 2015, and Alibaba will be there to sell advertising space on 71% of it.
    • The Singles Day holiday belongs almost solely to Alibaba affiliated websites and dwarfs US Black Friday and Cyber Monday online sales combined.
    • The results of Alibaba's mobile penetration and monetization efforts are intimidating to say the least.
    • You're paying top dollar for all of these wonders, but it's worth it. Alibaba is already the supplier of choice for many of eBay's and Amazon's most successful sellers.
  • Apple's Payments Platform May Be Ready To Roll
    Sun, Aug. 31 AAPL 78 Comments

    Summary

    • Evidence for a September 9th rollout of Apple's payments platform continues to mount.
    • Apple's recently published patent offers the clearest picture yet of what such a platform might entail.
    • The consistency between leaked PCBs and cases suggests that the iPhone 6 will employ NFC. However, this is not 100% certain.
    • 2014 will be a watershed year for Cupertino and I am increasing my PT accordingly to $114.
  • Apple's Opportunity In India
    Wed, Aug. 27 AAPL 43 Comments

    Summary

    • While China is well covered by analysts, India - Apple's fastest growing market - is widely ignored.
    • India's middle class is expected to grow to more than triple current levels by 2025.
    • India's relative poverty compared with more developed Asian markets presents a number of complications. However, India's middle class is already large enough to be the sole focus of Apple's attention.
    • In order to achieve a breakout, Apple has adopted a uniquely Indian marketing strategy that rests with "EMIs" and the cachet of Apple's premium brand.
    • For Apple, bringing India into the fold hinges on convincing India's middle class that they are getting value for money and credit expansion.
  • Apple's Tax Bill Is About To Get Much, Much Bigger
    Mon, Jun. 23 AAPL 118 Comments

    Summary

    • The European Commission has announced that it will launch a formal investigation into Apple's tax arrangements in Ireland.
    • The Commission's investigation is part of a global crackdown on multinational corporations launched by the OECD and endorsed by the G20 known as the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting Action.
    • The adoption of tax harmonization rules by the majority of European states would effectively eliminate the most profitable opportunities for cross-border tax arbitrage regardless of US adoption.
    • Depending on Apple's capital allocation strategy, BEPS has the potential to be either a windfall or a significant hit for Apple investors in the mid term.
  • Apple Outspends Google On Acquisitions In 2013
    Tue, Mar. 11 AAPL 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple has significantly increased its M&A spend over the last five quarters, topping Google for the first time in 2013 ($1.61 bn vs. $1.45 bn, adjusted).
    • These acquisitions cover a wide range of technologies, notably indoor GPS, maps/navigation, predictive search, health-tracking, infrared motion-sensing/3D scanning, video data compression, and low-power wireless radio technology.
    • This surge in M&A activity, combined with a renewed HR push by Apple indicates that the company intends to release multiple new product categories in 2014.
  • Ukraine Is The Key To Putin's Eurasian Union
    Tue, Mar. 4 OIL, RSX, ESR 13 Comments
  • Samsung And PayPal Declare War On Apple
    Sun, Mar. 2 AAPL 70 Comments
  • Apple Is Building A Mobile Payments Platform To Rival PayPal
    Fri, Feb. 28 AAPL 141 Comments
  • Can Microsoft Fire Bill Gates?
    Mon, Feb. 3 MSFT 37 Comments
  • Apple's R&D Spend Points To Multiple New Products Exiting The Pipeline
    Mon, Feb. 3 AAPL 33 Comments
  • Apple: Buy The Dip And Go Long The 2014 Product Cycle
    Sun, Feb. 2 AAPL 44 Comments
  • Herbalife: Time To Hold Or Fold?
    Mon, Jan. 27 HLF 45 Comments
  • Apple Roars Into A Chinese New Year
    Dec. 27, 2013 AAPL 35 Comments
  • Silicon Valley Embraces Bitcoin While Central Banks Circle The Wagons
    Dec. 19, 2013 V, COIN 6 Comments
  • Apple Bears Throw In The Towel
    Dec. 13, 2013 AAPL 138 Comments
  • Is Bitcoin A Threat To Western Union?
    Dec. 3, 2013 EBAY, WU, COIN 19 Comments
  • Wall Street Doesn't Understand Bitcoin Yet, But It Will
    Nov. 26, 2013 EBAY, COIN 78 Comments
  • Apple's Italian Tax Woes Are Just The Tip Of The Iceberg
    Nov. 17, 2013 AAPL 63 Comments
  • A Microsoft Spin-Off May Be In The Cards Regardless Of CEO Pick
    Nov. 12, 2013 MSFT 21 Comments
  • Twitter Likely To Fall By 25% Due To Legacy Expenses
    Nov. 10, 2013 TWTR 15 Comments
  • How Apple Won The War For Education
    Oct. 20, 2013 AAPL 50 Comments
  • The Magpies Of India: How The Cash For Gold Market Came To Dominate The World's Oldest Democracy
    Oct. 18, 2013 GLD 29 Comments
  • 10 Catalysts That Are Paving The Way For Apple $700
    Oct. 18, 2013 AAPL 78 Comments
  • Worried About Default Risk? Ask Santa For Options
    Oct. 11, 2013 DIA, QQQ, SPY 14 Comments
  • The U.S. Defaulted On Its Debt In 1979, And The Results Weren't Pretty
    Sep. 27, 2013 AMZN, QQQ, SPY 23 Comments
  • A Sneak Peek Inside Apple's R&D Lab
    Sep. 20, 2013 AAPL 38 Comments
  • Warren Buffett On Ben Graham's Biggest Mistake
    Sep. 13, 2013 BRK.A, URBN, VAR 14 Comments
  • Winners And Losers In A World Without Cookies
    Aug. 23, 2013 GOOG, FB Comment!
  • Apple: Inside Icahn's Indecent Proposal
    Aug. 17, 2013 AAPL 61 Comments
  • The New Duopoly?
    Aug. 15, 2013 FB 5 Comments
  • Google Decoded: A Visual Tour Of Mountain View's Balance Sheet
    Aug. 9, 2013 GOOG 11 Comments