From 660 To 390: Not Sufficient, But Necessary Fuel For A Sustainable Bull Market [View article]
Excellent work. Very insightful.
However, an argument could be made, could it not, that CDS spreads are somewhat of a lagging indicator rather than a leading one, and that what one should really focus on are lending standards and credit quality. What if the CDS market has mispriced the risk, or --equally likely -- that the investment banks hocking these instruments have a bunk model? Studying the swaps will help you get out of the burning building alive, but not without inhaling a lot of smoke while you're filing through the exit door.
Liar's Poker And North Korea's Nukes [View article]
There are two sides to every trade for a reason. If going long on South Korea the only ethical trade to make every time the nation was under threat, that in itself would introduce moral hazard by rewarding provocative behavior. Yet if trading in South Korea were avoided en masse, there would be no liquidity and the S.K. market would implode. Welcome to capitalism.
H7N9 Flu Outbreak: 10 Things The Media Missed [View article]
Vaccine companies like Roche, BCRX, et cet. will do very well in the short term, because the public believes that vaccines are a silver bullet and that distribution is a cinch. The best stock to hold in a flu epidemic/pandemic is actually CLX.
H7N9 Flu Outbreak: 10 Things The Media Missed [View article]
Thanks, Russ! Your knowledge of silicon makes me feel even smaller, I assure you. (Great call on Micron, btw!)
I'm optimistic as well, and for the record --to anyone reading this-- I'm not sounding the klaxon over H7N9. It's just a really nasty virus with ugly intentions, and whether it becomes an epidemic or a pandemic or not doesn't interest me much.
Containment is myth, vaccination is a joke. There's no mysterious cobwebbed facility out there with a big U.S. seal on it itching for a pandemic to occur so it can start mass producing hypodermic needles or syringes. The countries with the industrial capacity to create such a vaccination program aren't about to export it to non-citizens before its own citizens are vaccinated (see: "Vaccination Paradox"), and antigenic shift/reassortment means that it will just be back later, this is referred to in the literature as "vaccine escape"), one of the first things an influenza virus does when it infects a human host is up its resistance to Tamiflu, there really is no viable protection from any of this, so "che sera, sera."
On the other hand, I have a low threshold for media induced sedation, because it's implicitly insulting. No one would hit the morning talk shows to soothe investors nerves over a novel virus if they didn't think that the public was rank stupid.
H7N9 Flu Outbreak: 10 Things The Media Missed [View article]
No strain of the flu has ever been contained or controlled by any government entity in any time or in any place in the history of the world. A novel viral reservoir like ΣPF11, also known as pH1N1, attacks and waits, then attacks and waits until PF11Ω, or critical mass (pandemic), is achieved. The various health authorities "cops and robbers" narrative is essentially a gimmick: The cops don't have handcuffs, the robbers are never caught or go to jail. Monitoring of H7N9 contacts, for example, consists of a self-reporting interview where the contact is asked how they feel. Blood is not taken. Containment consists of isolating the sick, social distancing, plastic bags and duck tape. Without duck tape, the U.S. wouldn't have a viral "containment program" to speak of.
My advice? When in China, do as the Chinese are doing: Bring bottled water, avoid fresh food and produce, wear protective gloves, have a face mask handy and stick to frozen entrees.
There's trouble brewing again in sovereign bailout land as Portugal's Constitutional Court strikes down austerity measures in a binding decision that is expected to create a gap of €860M in the country's budget. The move could put Portugal's international bailout package in jeopardy although some economists believe a workaround is possible, according to WSJ. [View news story]
I've heard the "you just don't understand Europe" line to; the only difference is that I don't think Europeans understand Europe either. Nor do I believe that the European politicians have a grand strategy. If playing stupid is all part of an act, it's a convincing one.
When Wall Street Gets The Flu [View article]
When Wall Street Gets The Flu [View article]
From 660 To 390: Not Sufficient, But Necessary Fuel For A Sustainable Bull Market [View article]
However, an argument could be made, could it not, that CDS spreads are somewhat of a lagging indicator rather than a leading one, and that what one should really focus on are lending standards and credit quality. What if the CDS market has mispriced the risk, or --equally likely -- that the investment banks hocking these instruments have a bunk model? Studying the swaps will help you get out of the burning building alive, but not without inhaling a lot of smoke while you're filing through the exit door.
Liar's Poker And North Korea's Nukes [View article]
H7N9 Flu Outbreak: 10 Things The Media Missed [View article]
H7N9 Flu Outbreak: 10 Things The Media Missed [View article]
H7N9 Flu Outbreak: 10 Things The Media Missed [View article]
H7N9 Flu Outbreak: 10 Things The Media Missed [View article]
I'm optimistic as well, and for the record --to anyone reading this-- I'm not sounding the klaxon over H7N9. It's just a really nasty virus with ugly intentions, and whether it becomes an epidemic or a pandemic or not doesn't interest me much.
Containment is myth, vaccination is a joke. There's no mysterious cobwebbed facility out there with a big U.S. seal on it itching for a pandemic to occur so it can start mass producing hypodermic needles or syringes. The countries with the industrial capacity to create such a vaccination program aren't about to export it to non-citizens before its own citizens are vaccinated (see: "Vaccination Paradox"), and antigenic shift/reassortment means that it will just be back later, this is referred to in the literature as "vaccine escape"), one of the first things an influenza virus does when it infects a human host is up its resistance to Tamiflu, there really is no viable protection from any of this, so "che sera, sera."
On the other hand, I have a low threshold for media induced sedation, because it's implicitly insulting. No one would hit the morning talk shows to soothe investors nerves over a novel virus if they didn't think that the public was rank stupid.
H7N9 Flu Outbreak: 10 Things The Media Missed [View article]
My advice? When in China, do as the Chinese are doing: Bring bottled water, avoid fresh food and produce, wear protective gloves, have a face mask handy and stick to frozen entrees.
H7N9 Flu Outbreak: 10 Things The Media Missed [View article]
February Consumer Credit rises $18.2B vs. an expected $15B and $16.2B previously. [View news story]
There's trouble brewing again in sovereign bailout land as Portugal's Constitutional Court strikes down austerity measures in a binding decision that is expected to create a gap of €860M in the country's budget. The move could put Portugal's international bailout package in jeopardy although some economists believe a workaround is possible, according to WSJ. [View news story]
http://bit.ly/SgbVZu
Facebook Home For Android Leaked: What You Need To Know [View article]
How Helium Is Like Mortgages [View article]
You Just Don't Understand Europe [View article]