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Kyle Spencer  

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  • This Is When The Music Really Stops [View article]
    Command economies exhibit a fairly straightforward historical bias towards systemic malinvestment that typically cannot be handled in any decisive way way the governments in question do to the habitual self-dealing of said governments.

    Who wants to be the one to suggest to their colleagues that the means to national restoration is for everyone to take a massive hit to their portfolio? It's all very well for officials in Beijing to claim that China must get its house in order, it's another thing entirely when that order comes (literally) at the expense of one's own house.
    Sep 1, 2015. 08:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can This Market Go? [View article]
    Means less than zero without a clear connection to the situation under discussion.
    Aug 25, 2015. 11:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China markets slide again, but Europe calmly positive so far [View news story]
    China bulls, this is your cue...
    Aug 25, 2015. 04:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: 3 Key Signs Needed For An Actionable Short-Term Bottom [View article]
    Let's start with wealth, the one form of wealth that has lasted longer than any other form of wealth is horses. Just ask a King, Julius Caesar, an English pirate, or the Pope; or read the Constitution or the Bible...
    Aug 21, 2015. 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: 3 Key Signs Needed For An Actionable Short-Term Bottom [View article]
    Indeed: Silver sold well below it's "all in cost" for 14 years. There is a certain Contributor on SA who has made a tidy sum over the past few years calculating and recalculating the "all in costs" of producing gold on a revolving basis ~ as if such costs formed a de facto "put" against falling prices ~ only for one floor after the other to collapse without sinking the miners in question. Nonsense: The average output per annum of gold from mines is dwarfed by aboveground stockpiles of the metal. "But those are strong hands! They'd NEVER sell" is the typical reply. Again, this is the purest nonsense. International bankers have no particular love for gold, and even Indians are not such Magpies as to continue bidding up a wasting asset when they can simply wait for lower prices.
    Aug 21, 2015. 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil settles below $42 per barrel [View news story]
    "The only question is when will the price rise significantly." That could be 5-10 years from now. Are you prepared to wait?
    Aug 17, 2015. 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil settles below $42 per barrel [View news story]
    Because money printing isn't leading to the devaluation of the dollar and oil is priced in USD.
    Aug 17, 2015. 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In new partnership, HBO gets to 'Sesame Street' first [View news story]
    It's not easy being green.
    Aug 13, 2015. 06:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway nears $30B deal for Precision Castparts [View news story]
    That must be why 3G is invested in PCP as well; perhaps they're bingo partners...http://bit.ly/1KXt16i
    Aug 9, 2015. 12:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shanghai slides in opening action [View news story]
    - pop! -
    Jul 27, 2015. 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett wins again; Street gives no credit [View news story]
    You have it exact.
    Jul 27, 2015. 01:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett wins again; Street gives no credit [View news story]
    When SPY has a heart attack, Berkshire moves in like a shark with blood in the water.
    Jul 27, 2015. 01:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett wins again; Street gives no credit [View news story]
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 27, 2015. 01:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett wins again; Street gives no credit [View news story]
    "In legal terms, shareholders don’t own the corporation, they own securities that give them a less-than-well-defined claim on its earnings. In law and practice, they don’t have final say over most big corporate decisions (boards of directors do). And although many top managers pledge fealty to shareholders, their actions and their pay packages often bespeak other loyalties..."

    http://bit.ly/1MsbBRi
    Jul 27, 2015. 01:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett wins again; Street gives no credit [View news story]
    "This year does seem anomalous, as BRK does tend to bear the S&P. Still, please explain the value proposition behind low price growth and no dividend."

    If Berkshire was broken up into its constituent components the net result would command a large (3x-4x) multiple over its current valuation. 1.5x book is nothing. Buffett's consistently high growth, high earnings companies are effectively valued as if they were going out of business tomorrow instead of thriving, long term businesses with either a corner or other overwhelming advantage within their respective markets.

    That's an incredible margin of safety (using Buffett's definition in lieu of Graham's more restrictive formulation.) It means that if the sky falls tomorrow you can still sleep well at night knowing that a) BRK.B businesses will continue to outperform their competitors b) Buffett and Munger usually have the largest war chest of uncommitted funds in the room, with the result that c) Berkshire Hathaway tends to thrive during downturns and more or less track the market in booms.

    Warren Buffett is Warren Buffett because he (usually) doesn't lose his partners money and (typically) makes them a great deal more of it. The reason why there's no dividend is that Warren and Charlie are better at this game than you are. Presumptuous? Yes, but it's a statistically *safe* presumption. Most people would assume the same if we were talking about Bobby Fischer vs. The Stranger Who Just Walked Up To The Chess Board or John Lennon vs. The Drunk Dude Singing Karaoke. It may not be true in *every* instance, but where would you put your money?
    Jul 27, 2015. 12:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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