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Kyle Spencer

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  • Waiting For Godot: Time To Sell Nokia Stock [View article]
    Where's the analysis in this analysis?
    Oct 27 12:09 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happens If The iPhone 5 Flops? [View article]
    It's an In-Group/ Out-Group dichotomization. If you're too poor or uncool to own an iPhone, that says something about you to a growing number of people.
    Sep 10 08:50 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Krugman's Latest Debt Denial: Why His Two Magic Numbers Don't Cut It [View article]
    If you call for a sharp correction every year for the next decade or so, then you'll eventually be right - but that doesn't mean that you were right all along, or right for the right reasons.
    Jul 23 05:08 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A) credit rating is cut to AA with negative outlook from AA+ by S&P. "The lower credit rating ... better reflects our view of BRK's dependence on its core insurance operations for most of its dividend income ... only Burlington Northern has provided a significant portion of the total dividends paid from the operating companies to the holding company." [View news story]
    People still listen to S&P?
    May 16 09:13 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Italy (EWI -3.7%) and Spain (EWP -3.1%) ETFs lead a now-tumbling Europe (FEZ -1.8%) as - maybe we're being too simplistic here - Eurogroup President Dijsselbloem has more or less told anybody with greater than €100K in deposits at what could be a troubled bank they need to think about getting their money out. Italy's Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo are halted down more than 5%. EUFN -2.4%[View news story]
    If you think that the botched bank robbery in Cyprus isn't going to be repeated all over Southern Europe, I've got at least half a dozen bridges to sell you at prices starting below scrap.
    Mar 25 12:02 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Price Of Gold Is Falling [View article]
    1) Our debt is denominated in dollars.
    2) Most of that debt is owed to ourselves.
    3) Dollars are the world's reserve currency.
    4) Whatever country supplies the world's reserve currency must also be willing to run deficits.
    5) Deficits are not debt.
    6) Countries only make the coupon payments on their debt, they don't pay off the debt itself. The relevant measure of a country's actual debt itself is Debt-to-GDP.
    7) A run on the dollar without another currency to run to would bankrupt the bond holders making a run on the dollar.
    8) A devalued dollar would boost exports, inflation and tightening monetary policy, ultimately boosting the dollar.
    9) Inflation erodes the real burden of debt.
    10) There is no other viable currency to run to with the capacity to replace the dollar besides the euro. See: #3.
    Mar 1 01:46 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Basel III And Gold [View article]
    The problem with this schema would be if European or Chinese banks were to accumulate gold reserves at a significantly faster rate than their counterparts in the U.S., or vice-versa, which would result in a shortage of available Tier 1 capital precisely when derivatives traders require more of it to operate due to Dodd-Frank.

    The banks would naturally step in (for a hefty fee) by offering capital transformation services. While that's great for the for the bank's top line growth in the short term, it puts the rest of us on the hook for Lehman Redux the moment all that "transformed" garbage capital goes belly up.
    Nov 18 02:09 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Rebound Is Coming [View article]
    The Supreme Court outlawed secession in 1869 (Texas v. White).
    Nov 15 11:28 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Oil Really Gets Priced [View article]
    Correct, nor did I mention OPEC at length because, again, identifying ALL the variables that go into the price of a barrel of oil would be beyond the scope of any article. I did note in the Conclusions section, "geopolitical tension" and "the survival of unstable regimes" were both contributing factors.
    Nov 3 08:44 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wins And Losses In Apple's IOS 6 [View article]
    Apple stores are located on the wrong side of the road. High schools are missing. Museums are located under rivers. The red pin misses the Washington Monument and hits Independence Avenue. Sears Tower has shrunk. The city of Hong Kong is in mainland China. Cities are in the ocean. The Statue of Liberty is flat. Berlin has been renamed “Schöneiche bei Berlin." Whole areas are covered with clouds. Buildings twist, warp, and occasionally cease to exist altogether.
    Sep 21 10:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Win Over Samsung Is A Kick In The Teeth For Google [View article]
    Hey Vito,

    I'm familiar with the Vringo lawsuit. I've looked at the patent under dispute and I believe the case constitutes a fairly strong claim on Google. Vringo has already won round 1, which means that the judge agreed with Vringo's interpretation of what the terms in the patent mean. That obviously makes it easier for Vringo to win its case than if the terms where defined by Google's legal team.
    There's a much more thorough examination of the legal situation here:
    That being said, Google's lawyer always try to get these cases thrown out on "prior art". They tried the same thing in In Oracle America, Inc. v. Google Inc., Case No. 10-cv-03561, 2011 WL 3443835 (N.D. Cal. Aug. 8, 2011), and ultimately, it was just a stall.
    I read Google's original white paper on its search engine: "Anatomy of a Large-Scale Hypertextual Web Search Engine" (1998) a few years after it was published. Back then, only techies used Google, everyone else used Yahoo! Search, and Brin+Page were still known as "those MIT kids." Vringo's 420 patent was filed in 1996. I never came across anything that referenced relevance in any way before that, so my assumption is that the latest "prior art" is yet another stall. Google's lawyers have already tried this three times. If Vringo wins, penalties will range from $375 million to $3.75 billion, giving Vringo a stock price of somewhere between $6.94 (min) and $69.44 (max). The other parties in the suit will likely settle, after that. But nothing is guaranteed.Hope that helps.
    Aug 26 10:53 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures gain ahead of Fed decision; Bitcoin in free fall [View news story]
    When Bitcoin is expensive, everyone moans "Oh, why didn't I buy in when they were cheap?!"

    When Bitcoin is cheap, everyone cries, "Oh, my God! They're not expensive!"

    It's like contrarian Mozart.
    Dec 18 08:50 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Doesn't Understand Bitcoin Yet, But It Will [View article]
    "At this point, bitcoin seems like any other story stock such as TSLA, but is even more bubbly because there is no way (that I am aware of) to bet against it."
    Nov 26 10:52 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed boosts speculation about tapering by year-end, stocks slide [View news story]
    What hawks?
    Oct 30 05:39 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Won The War For Education [View article]
    If this were a high school basketball game, Apple would be 30 points ahead going into halftime. Can the other team(s) come back? Sure...but the odds...
    Oct 20 01:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment