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Lambros Papaeconomou  

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  • Buy Safe Bulkers: Smart Management With Skin In The Game [View article]
    Try this link

    http://bit.ly/18R13FU
    Jun 6, 2013. 06:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Safe Bulkers: Smart Management With Skin In The Game [View article]
    I have published an article on my company's web-site regarding the preferred shares. Here is the link:

    http://bit.ly/19IrJtZ
    Jun 5, 2013. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordic American Tankers: Rise Of The Phoenix [View article]
    US crude oil exports are currently not permitted and will require an act of Congress (Canada is a different story). The same is not true for refined petroleum products.

    Export restrictions aside, the biggest beneficiary of the shale gas revolution should be exports of refined petroleum products, because of low energy costs in the refining process. Unfortunately, the suezmax vessels that NAT owns are not suitable for refined petroleum products.

    You should expect crude oil trade routes to evolve over time (even including exports out of the US). This is what makes shipping such a fascinating industry. But every time you put raw materials (in this case crude oil & natural gas) closer to where they are consumed, this cannot be good for the overall ton-mile demand.
    Jun 4, 2013. 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Bulk Shipping: Digging Through The Surprise First Quarter Earnings [View article]
    The all-time high market cap for EGLE was $1.7 billion in May 2008. In the original version of the article, I had inadvertently stated the all-time high figure at $6.9 billion, not taking into account the 1-for-4 reverse stock split. I apologize for the mistake.
    Jun 4, 2013. 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Bulk Shipping: Digging Through The Surprise First Quarter Earnings [View article]
    Jonathan,

    The purchase of distressed assets by private equity groups or others does not take excess supply off the market, because these vessels continue to trade like before (I presume that these vessels are purchased for further trading and not demolition). They may have different owners but this fact alone does not change the supply/demand balance.

    The CEO is absolutely correct that there has been a glut of new vessel deliveries in the market that has depressed their earnings and values. If you want to try to forecast the future supply curve, you need to take into account demolitions AND new building orders.

    The order book may be known today but it will not remain static until the freight market improves. While nobody can predict how many orders there will be, rest assured that there will be new orders, especially for the eco-design type.
    Jun 4, 2013. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordic American Tankers: Rise Of The Phoenix [View article]
    Thank you very much for your kind reference to my article. I notice that in your opening you agree with my basic premise that NAT has paid a dividend in the past in excess of its operating cash flow.

    I would like to note that a sustainable (i.e. long-term) dividend has to be generated from a company’s free cash flow, which is not the same as operating cash flow.

    While you also concur that the historic dividend has been partially financed through secondary equity offerings and debt issuance, you assume in your valuation model that NAT will continue to pay a dividend equal to 101% of its projected EBITDA.

    Under this scenario, where would NAT find the cash to pay interest on the debt and renew its aging fleet? Have you taken into consideration in your model the need for additional equity offerings?

    With regards to your optimistic projection for a cyclical tanker freight market recovery, have you taken into consideration that the US (the largest energy consumer per capita, and the largest crude oil importer on a per ton mile basis) has the prospect of becoming energy independent by 2020?

    How will the increased production of crude oil and shale gas in the US affect crude oil imports from the Middle East and West Africa?
    Jun 2, 2013. 07:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Baltic Trading: Dry Cargo Shipping Exposure At A Discount To NAV [View article]
    Thank you for your kind words. BALT has very little debt compared to GNK or compared to GMR prior to its bankruptcy filing. I believe this is key to the company’s surviving the current bear freight market.

    I have already addressed the issue of founder Peter Georgiopoulos in my article, and will just reiterate that GNK has pledged its ownership stake in BALT as security collateral against one of its senior credit facilities.

    BALT today announced that its underwriters exercised their overallotment option in full, underlying the positive reception by the stock market (The stock has consistently traded above its offering price of $3.60 per share).

    $15 per share would imply an average value per vessel in excess of $56 million, which seems like a very tall order in today’s Sale & Purchase market. I like the stock but cannot view it as a potential 4-bagger at the moment.
    May 28, 2013. 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Baltic Trading: Dry Cargo Shipping Exposure At A Discount To NAV [View article]
    BALT had to raise funds because it was down to its last $1 million in cash reserves, and continues to trade its vessels below their cash break-even level. Short of raising cash it would have to draw from its credit facility. (In fact BALT did draw $1 million from the facility earlier this month, as disclosed in GNK 10Q report).

    This cash infusion buys the company a lot of time to tread through the bear freight market.

    I agree that current shareholders were diluted (based on my NAV analysis in the article, proforma NAV per share was lowered from $4.51 to $4.29 per share) but I think this was very a good trade-off for existing shareholders.
    May 24, 2013. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Baltic Trading: Dry Cargo Shipping Exposure At A Discount To NAV [View article]
    SB & BALT have different business models, & different risk-reward profiles.

    At today’s prices I would consider buying a little bit of both.
    May 24, 2013. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Bulk Shipping: Enjoy The Good News For Now, But Tread Very Carefully [View article]
    Ramisle,

    I will post a note re EGLE revenue recognition for the first quarter on http://www.nyfex.com tomorrow morning.
    May 19, 2013. 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Bulk Shipping: Enjoy The Good News For Now, But Tread Very Carefully [View article]
    Thank you for the correction. EGLE only has 45 vessels.

    Re my dated info, the fleet valuation is as of December 31st, 2012, and is the most recent one made available by the company itself, published in its 2012 10K report. Ship values do fluctuate but not like stock prices. If you have a more recent bona–fide fleet valuation for the company please share.
    May 17, 2013. 07:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Bulk Shipping: Enjoy The Good News For Now, But Tread Very Carefully [View article]
    Read Note 4 of most recent financial statements.
    May 17, 2013. 05:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baltic Trading Is Still A Buy: Earnings Preview For Q4, 2012 [View article]
    Cliff,

    The earnings multiplier for BALT, on an annualized basis, is $0.14 for every $1,000 of average TCE. To calculate it you need to apply the following formula:

    (# of vessels * 365 days/year * $1,000) / (# of shares outstanding)

    BALT has nine vessels and approximately 23 million shares outstanding.

    Let me know if this helps.
    Apr 29, 2013. 08:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold Hits Glacier, Investors Must Heed Growing Sector Risks [View article]
    Emmet,

    No disrespect to your article (which I must confess I did not read). But do you find it justified to tag a shipping company (BALT), after you only mentioned it in part of one sentence?
    Apr 15, 2013. 07:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Too Soon To Look At Nordic American Tankers? [View article]
    Nathan,

    You realize that the Baltic Dry Index reflects spot freight rates for dry cargo commodities (for example iron ore, coal, grain, etc) and has no relationship whatsoever with either the price of crude oil or crude oil freight rates.

    Any correlation between the BDI and crude oil or S&P 500, or even the price of NAT is purely coincidental.

    Why don’t you try to do a similar analysis using the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) as your starting point?
    Mar 25, 2013. 01:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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