Seeking Alpha

Lambros Papaeconomou

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Lambros Papaeconomou's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Buy Baltic Trading: Dry Cargo Shipping Exposure At A Discount To NAV [View article]
    Thank you for your kind words. BALT has very little debt compared to GNK or compared to GMR prior to its bankruptcy filing. I believe this is key to the company’s surviving the current bear freight market.

    I have already addressed the issue of founder Peter Georgiopoulos in my article, and will just reiterate that GNK has pledged its ownership stake in BALT as security collateral against one of its senior credit facilities.

    BALT today announced that its underwriters exercised their overallotment option in full, underlying the positive reception by the stock market (The stock has consistently traded above its offering price of $3.60 per share).

    $15 per share would imply an average value per vessel in excess of $56 million, which seems like a very tall order in today’s Sale & Purchase market. I like the stock but cannot view it as a potential 4-bagger at the moment.
    May 28 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Baltic Trading: Dry Cargo Shipping Exposure At A Discount To NAV [View article]
    BALT had to raise funds because it was down to its last $1 million in cash reserves, and continues to trade its vessels below their cash break-even level. Short of raising cash it would have to draw from its credit facility. (In fact BALT did draw $1 million from the facility earlier this month, as disclosed in GNK 10Q report).

    This cash infusion buys the company a lot of time to tread through the bear freight market.

    I agree that current shareholders were diluted (based on my NAV analysis in the article, proforma NAV per share was lowered from $4.51 to $4.29 per share) but I think this was very a good trade-off for existing shareholders.
    May 24 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Baltic Trading: Dry Cargo Shipping Exposure At A Discount To NAV [View article]
    SB & BALT have different business models, & different risk-reward profiles.

    At today’s prices I would consider buying a little bit of both.
    May 24 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Bulk Shipping: Enjoy The Good News For Now, But Tread Very Carefully [View article]
    Ramisle,

    I will post a note re EGLE revenue recognition for the first quarter on http://www.nyfex.com tomorrow morning.
    May 19 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Bulk Shipping: Enjoy The Good News For Now, But Tread Very Carefully [View article]
    Thank you for the correction. EGLE only has 45 vessels.

    Re my dated info, the fleet valuation is as of December 31st, 2012, and is the most recent one made available by the company itself, published in its 2012 10K report. Ship values do fluctuate but not like stock prices. If you have a more recent bona–fide fleet valuation for the company please share.
    May 17 07:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Bulk Shipping: Enjoy The Good News For Now, But Tread Very Carefully [View article]
    Read Note 4 of most recent financial statements.
    May 17 05:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baltic Trading Is Still A Buy: Earnings Preview For Q4, 2012 [View article]
    Cliff,

    The earnings multiplier for BALT, on an annualized basis, is $0.14 for every $1,000 of average TCE. To calculate it you need to apply the following formula:

    (# of vessels * 365 days/year * $1,000) / (# of shares outstanding)

    BALT has nine vessels and approximately 23 million shares outstanding.

    Let me know if this helps.
    Apr 29 08:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold Hits Glacier, Investors Must Heed Growing Sector Risks [View article]
    Emmet,

    No disrespect to your article (which I must confess I did not read). But do you find it justified to tag a shipping company (BALT), after you only mentioned it in part of one sentence?
    Apr 15 07:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Too Soon To Look At Nordic American Tankers? [View article]
    Nathan,

    You realize that the Baltic Dry Index reflects spot freight rates for dry cargo commodities (for example iron ore, coal, grain, etc) and has no relationship whatsoever with either the price of crude oil or crude oil freight rates.

    Any correlation between the BDI and crude oil or S&P 500, or even the price of NAT is purely coincidental.

    Why don’t you try to do a similar analysis using the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) as your starting point?
    Mar 25 01:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordic American Tankers Is A Sucker's Bet [View article]
    I stand 100% behind my argument, but I do acknowledge the stock’s recent run-up.

    Let’s see what the pricing of the imminent equity offering will be.

    Although I do not consider NAT as a high-risk stock, I have also noticed greater stock rallies in OSG (already under bankruptcy protection) and EXM (presently teetering with chapter 11).

    I guess I have to apologize for being a PT Barnum disciple.

    I would like to correct you though on one thing. When I published my article, the stock was already trading ex-dividend.
    Mar 22 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Safe Bulkers: Smart Management With Skin In The Game [View article]
    Good luck with your article. I look forward to reading it.
    Mar 13 04:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Safe Bulkers: Smart Management With Skin In The Game [View article]
    You argue that “other” shipping companies have written down the value of their fleet. Can you please share with us which shipping companies you are referring to?

    No question that the current market value of SB’s fleet is less than its book value on a charter free basis. But if you include the value of its long-term charters (my estimate in the article was $129 million), you will see that the gap is very narrow.

    Most other shipping companies don’t have this luxury (of above fair market value charters) and still have avoided writing down their fleets.

    FYI, companies that use US GAAP (the vast majority of shipping companies that are trading in New York use US GAAP) have an easier threshold (compared to international accounting standards) to meet when they are testing for asset impairment. As a result, they have largely avoided any asset impairments. I am only aware of Paragon Shipping (PRGN) that wrote down the value of only some of its vessels.

    Regarding the risk of default, I agree with you that all companies in every industry carry some level of default risk. Having said that, Safe Bulkers has always met its debt covenants, and has never sought any temporary waiver from its lenders.

    One of its debt covenants is that the Hajioannou family has to maintain a minimum 50% ownership in the company. I can sleep much better knowing that the owner and I are sharing the same boat.

    In terms of default risk, SB and DSX currently have the lowest risk in the shipping industry.
    Mar 12 07:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Safe Bulkers: Smart Management With Skin In The Game [View article]
    SB filed its annual report today and disclosed details about the purchase of 600,000 shares by Vorini Holdings during year 2012.

    Based on the disclosure, Vorini Holdings purchased the shares not in open market transactions but in a block trade through a broker-dealer.

    The trade took place in December 2012 at $3.00 per share.

    The price and timing of the trade is another proof to the business acumen of company CEO Polys Hajioannou
    Mar 1 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Safe Bulkers: Smart Management With Skin In The Game [View article]
    The cash break-even for year 2011 was $8,840 per day, including vessel operating cost, dry-dock costs, general & administrative expenses, and cash interest expense.

    Remind you that SB fully hedges its interest rate exposure, so this figure includes the cost of interest rate swaps.

    This figure is among the lowest in the industry, especially if you consider that it is not subject to interest rate risk.

    When SB files its annual report for 2012, I will let you (the readers) know what the figure was for year 2012, but I do not expect any material deviation.
    Feb 28 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordic American Tankers Is A Sucker's Bet [View article]
    I have recommended a few dry-cargo shipping stocks, since it is a segment that I follow very closely. If you have some time please read my articles on

    Safe Bulkers (SB)

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Baltic Trading (BALT)

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    and Diana Shipping (DSX)

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 28 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
106 Comments
29 Likes