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Lance Roberts  

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  • Predicting The Future Is Difficult [View article]
    You are correct...it is never ALL....just the vast majority as shown by Dalbar's research.
    Jun 26, 2015. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting The Future Is Difficult [View article]
    I agree with you. Mebane and I share a lot of common philosophies and I read his research regularly. Thanks.
    Jun 26, 2015. 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Or Bearish? What Do The Charts Say? [View article]
    I love the whole "broken clock" analysis. Wrote an entire article about that:
    http://bit.ly/1H66P9E
    Jun 22, 2015. 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Or Bearish? What Do The Charts Say? [View article]
    I have run a variety of charts in the past showing margin debt inflation adjusted, margin debt to market cap, margin debt to GDP, technical indicators of margin debt, etc. They all suggest pretty much the same thing.

    http://bit.ly/1dbfpYG

    The run down in yields is not due to risk aversion but due to a lack of liquidity in bonds in generally as they are being absorbed by Central Banks. This lack of liquidity will eventually have a very negative outcome if there is a crisis at some point.

    Furthermore, it is time to put the "Fed Model" out to pasture.
    http://bit.ly/1dbfpYI
    Jun 22, 2015. 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Or Bearish? What Do The Charts Say? [View article]
    Great points and I agree. Thank you.
    Jun 22, 2015. 08:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things: Retail Sales, Fed Misses Again, Profits [View article]
    That is not a recession...the light grey bars are recessions...the dark blue bars are peaks in corporate profits. You need to read my article on earnings...corporations don't have better pricing power but a better ability to boost earnings/profits through accounting measures, cost cutting and wage suppression. http://bit.ly/1H63nfj
    Jun 22, 2015. 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things: Retail Sales, Fed Misses Again, Profits [View article]
    Thank you so much...I really do appreciate that.
    Jun 22, 2015. 08:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Or Bearish? What Do The Charts Say? [View article]
    Thanks for the link...
    Jun 19, 2015. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Or Bearish? What Do The Charts Say? [View article]
    Thank you for the comments.
    Jun 19, 2015. 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • About That Surge In Building Permits [View article]
    Thank you....
    Jun 19, 2015. 08:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Earnings Season 'Scandal' [View article]
    LOL...no problem. The are a couple of points of the wages/profit ratio in particular.

    1) since 1980 wage growth has lagged far behind profit growth as financial engineering has become more aggressively embedded in the financial markets. Lower wage growth combined with rising costs of living has led to a surge in indebtedness as credit was used to fill the gap between incomes and living standards. The result has been a decrease in economic growth rates over time.

    2) the correlation between wages/profits and GDP is also not surprising given that increases in the wages/profits (inverted decreases) have been driven by declines in profitability more than increases in wages. Those declines in profitability have been primarily the result of a decline in economic activity.

    Thanks.
    Jun 15, 2015. 07:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed At Risk Of Missing Window To Hike Rates [View article]
    Actually, the Fed TARGET has been 0 to .25. The effective fed funds rate has been running around the middle of that range.
    Jun 12, 2015. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Earnings Season 'Scandal' [View article]
    Actually, that is an inverted graph. The recent uptick is simply caused by the recent drop in corporate profits versus a strong increase in wages. So it is still primarily an extraction of profits versus wages. However, the recent pick up in wage growth will eat away at profitability suggesting that stocks are likely at peak valuations.
    Jun 12, 2015. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Earnings Season 'Scandal' [View article]
    The top two dashed lines are simply where the current valuations are as compared to previous levels.
    Jun 12, 2015. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed At Risk Of Missing Window To Hike Rates [View article]
    Yes...that was exactly the point of the article.
    Jun 11, 2015. 09:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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124 Comments
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