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Lance Roberts

 
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  • Misunderstandings Of The End Of QE [View article]
    The problem with REITS, and more so with MLP's, is that they are heavily leveraged so small increase in interest rates can have majorly negative impacts on price.

    Importantly with respect to MLP's is that their revenue is a function of how much product flows through their pipes. That is a finite quantity and prices are far outside cash flows. There many trading hundreds of times fcf.

    Not suggesting you sell, just that you should be very cautious. I live in Houston and love MLP's but there is a fairly high degree of risk associated with them.
    Jul 31 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP - Pre/Post Annual Revisions In Pictures [View article]
    I don't disagree.
    Jul 31 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Misunderstandings Of The End Of QE [View article]
    Steve...here is some historical analysis on Fed interest rate increase:

    http://bit.ly/1qMZmGg
    Jul 31 08:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Misunderstandings Of The End Of QE [View article]
    That was in reference to a statistical study on rising rates and nasty events. See here:

    http://bit.ly/1qMZmGg

    However, the impact of rising rates depends on where you are in the full market cycle when rates begin to rise, and the strength of the underlying economy. I suspect that we will be on the shorter end of the average.

    Also, the estimate coincides with the Decennial and Presidential cycles which suggests 12-18 months of the current cycle remaining:

    http://bit.ly/1qMZmGi
    Jul 31 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Will Rise And The 3 Trades You Can't Make [View article]
    Jprizzuto

    This article discusses both the decennial (10 year) and presidential election cycles and the confluence of both at the current time.

    http://bit.ly/1o5QmEj

    Thank you.
    Jul 28 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons The Markets Could Still Go Higher [View article]
    Thank you. A quick review of 2010 and 2011, when Fed support ended, will pretty much give you an idea of what will happen. The real economic and fundamental data is all very weak and the Fed's programs are not translating into the real economy.
    May 31 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons The Markets Could Still Go Higher [View article]
    The majority of my clients are either at, or near, retirement, so our portfolios are built to generate incomes. Therefore, SDY works better that SPY with good performance.
    May 31 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons The Markets Could Still Go Higher [View article]
    Thank you. That means a lot and I do appreciate that.
    May 31 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons The Markets Could Still Go Higher [View article]
    The comment about Bogle is very interesting. How can valuations trade substantially higher when Bogle himself is calling for two major corrections over the next decade of between 30-50%. Of course, his view to navigate that is just to buy and hold. That will work as long as you do run out of time before you retire. :-)
    May 31 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons The Markets Could Still Go Higher [View article]
    You are correct about the STA Risk Ratio....when it turns down from extremely high levels that normally coincides with corrections in the market. Of course, the higher the extreme the bigger the correction normally. However, these are certainly not normal times by any means.

    The problem for contrarians, like me, is that there is a misunderstanding by the "bullish" crowd that just because I point out the inherent risk - that I am not invested in the market. However, the Fed's interventions have clearly made any type of economic or fundamental analysis fairly worthless currently. My suspicion is that when reality returns it will be fairly brutal.
    May 31 09:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is No Asset Bubble? [View article]
    That is true. I will do a follow up article soon with that analysis.
    Mar 24 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is No Asset Bubble? [View article]
    Thank you so much. As an portfolio manager my job is to recognize risks to hedge accordingly. I am currently long the market because the trend is positive. When it no longer is...I won't be. But we don't PAY ATTENTION we fall victim to the slaughter.
    Mar 24 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is No Asset Bubble? [View article]
    Not blaming one guy obviously....substitude The Fed. It is monetary policy that is in question.
    Mar 24 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is No Asset Bubble? [View article]
    We are fully allocated in our portfolios currently. It is always funny reading comments to posts as there is always a misunderstanding that pointing out risks menas somehow you are totally out of the market.

    The evidence of a near term market peak is mounting so being aware of these risks allows us to become more tactical with portfolios to avoind draw downs as we did in 2000 and again in 2008. No one believed me either in 1999 and 2007 as everything was going to rosy forever.

    Rates rising DOES NOT translate into a stronger economy. Housing recovery ends quickly, private investment slows and the whole stocks are cheap story dies quickly. Look at what happened in the 60s and 70s.
    Mar 24 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Rules [View article]
    Yield chase has been going on for two years. Global recession is setting in and these countries are highly dependent on the US economy for their growth. These were the EXACT same arguments I heard for owning Latin America prior to the last bust. There have been 6 emerging market bubbles in the past...they all end badly. Please be careful with your money.
    Feb 20 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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