Risk Ratio Indicating More Correction Coming [View article]
Yes, the signals have got us in and out of the market. Again, read the first 4 links in the article above which detailed the buy and sell signals. You will never get the exact top or bottom - but as investors, not traders, our goal is to capture the majority of the move up and miss the majority of the move down.
I am not saying there is going to be a massive decline. 1200 is about the right target before QE 3 is lauched.
Risk Ratio Indicating More Correction Coming [View article]
This is the last of several articles that have been leading up to this point. On a daily basis, the market is very oversold, which is to be expected before you start getting longer term "weekly" indications of market breakdowns. The most likely probability at this point is a rally to targets between 1340-1370 which is where people who were "trapped" on this sell-off will sell out. The subsequent decline is where we will establish the next most likely oversold condition to set up for the next tradeable rally that will likely coincide with QE3.
Market Issues Confirmed Sell Signal [View article]
If you read the article rather than just make baseless accusations the whole last section CLEARLY states to sell and raise cash reversal. I certainly don't mind criticism but you have been attacking me for no reason.
Market Issues Confirmed Sell Signal [View article]
Actually, we have been issuing sell signals, as indicated, since late March and early April. This is a "confirming" sell signal which leads to bigger corrections. It also, as stated, changes our strategy from "buying dips" to "selling rallies". As far as the Fed stepping in - I wouldn't be overly confident of that in the short term. The Fed needs more economic weakness for "permission" to step in. That could be a while and at lower levels on the market.
The Rise Of Dependency And The Hidden Depression [View article]
You are missing the point. This is not about the calculation of GDP - this is about the plight of the average American. If wages had kept up with inflation the average wage would be 92,000 a year versus 50,000. With consumers still heavily indebted the cost of debt service, high "real" unemployment levels, and insufficient income to maintain the current standard of living the dependency on government welfare has risen sharply. Remember, the only difference between a recession and a depression is whether you are employed or not.
Earnings Likely To Be 'Better Than Expected' [View article]
Thank you for the comment. The point had nothing to do with AAPL being a buy or sell...just the impact hat it has on earnings and the market as a whole. The same issue occurred with MSFT previously.
Why Production May Be About To Weaken [View article]
Thank you for the comments. Just for the record we are not bullish or bearish. We just look at the data. Currently we are long the market given the recent buy signals in our indicators. However, the reality is that the pickup in the economy in the last two quarters was likely ephemeral due to the restart post Japan crisis.
The issue at hand here is that it is time to let go of "bull" and "bear" tags as that does not help the average investor. If the market goes up - great, everyone makes money. However, trying to search for optimism where it may not exist only leads to excessive risk taking and losses to portfolios when the cycle turns in the opposite direction. Not losing capital is much more important than chasing market advances. Opportunities to make money come as often as taxi cabs in NYC. However, spending time making up losses after large declines leads to poor long term performance.
My job is to point out the details behind the headlines. Our portfolios are currently sitting at 83% of a full allocation so we are obviously long the market. However, we bypassed the entire 20% draw down last summer. Our philosophy, and our analysis, is simple - go along with the trend but be aware of the risks.
So, while you can "hope" that this is a "first of it's kind" economic cycle - the reality is that "hope" is not an investment strategy that you invest with.
Why Production May Be About To Weaken [View article]
That is a very good question. I wrote a piece a while back about the difference between high inflation and hyper-inflation. In the 70's the U.S. experienced high inflation. Hyper-inflation is caused when the world loses confidence in a country because they are losing a war, defaulting, etc. (ie Weimer).
There are three legs to high inflation: Commodity inflation, Velocity of Money and Wage inflation. We can agree there is commodity inflation which is a tax on the consumer but there is no velocity of money or wage inflation - in fact those two areas are in deflation.
So, the real issue is that there is more on an environment of stagflation that exists where the consumer with stagnant wage income is being squeezed by higher commodity costs.
I will update my report on High vs Hyper Inflation and post here soon.
The 'Real' Employment Situation Report [View article]
Yes, I have done some articles on the bankrupting of America which includes not only that we have a record number of indviduals on food stamps but that the majority of individuals are so heavily levered that it will take longer than most realize to clear this cycle. Your points are right on track.
The 'Real' Employment Situation Report [View article]
I agree with you. I am working on some analysis to take into account the rash of boomers moving into retirement. Of course, since most of those are woefully underprepared for retirement we may see more pushing to stay in the labor pool longer.
Risk Ratio Indicating More Correction Coming [View article]
I am not saying there is going to be a massive decline. 1200 is about the right target before QE 3 is lauched.
Market Issues Confirmed Sell Signal [View article]
http://bit.ly/J905GA
Risk Ratio Indicating More Correction Coming [View article]
Market Issues Confirmed Sell Signal [View article]
Market Issues Confirmed Sell Signal [View article]
The Rise Of Dependency And The Hidden Depression [View article]
Earnings Likely To Be 'Better Than Expected' [View article]
Q4 GDP: Prognosis Still Negative [View article]
Why Production May Be About To Weaken [View article]
The issue at hand here is that it is time to let go of "bull" and "bear" tags as that does not help the average investor. If the market goes up - great, everyone makes money. However, trying to search for optimism where it may not exist only leads to excessive risk taking and losses to portfolios when the cycle turns in the opposite direction. Not losing capital is much more important than chasing market advances. Opportunities to make money come as often as taxi cabs in NYC. However, spending time making up losses after large declines leads to poor long term performance.
My job is to point out the details behind the headlines. Our portfolios are currently sitting at 83% of a full allocation so we are obviously long the market. However, we bypassed the entire 20% draw down last summer. Our philosophy, and our analysis, is simple - go along with the trend but be aware of the risks.
So, while you can "hope" that this is a "first of it's kind" economic cycle - the reality is that "hope" is not an investment strategy that you invest with.
Why Production May Be About To Weaken [View article]
There are three legs to high inflation: Commodity inflation, Velocity of Money and Wage inflation. We can agree there is commodity inflation which is a tax on the consumer but there is no velocity of money or wage inflation - in fact those two areas are in deflation.
So, the real issue is that there is more on an environment of stagflation that exists where the consumer with stagnant wage income is being squeezed by higher commodity costs.
I will update my report on High vs Hyper Inflation and post here soon.
The 'Real' Employment Situation Report [View article]
The 'Real' Employment Situation Report [View article]
The 'Real' Employment Situation Report [View article]
The 'Real' Employment Situation Report [View article]
The 'Real' Employment Situation Report [View article]