Thank you so much. As an portfolio manager my job is to recognize risks to hedge accordingly. I am currently long the market because the trend is positive. When it no longer is...I won't be. But we don't PAY ATTENTION we fall victim to the slaughter.
We are fully allocated in our portfolios currently. It is always funny reading comments to posts as there is always a misunderstanding that pointing out risks menas somehow you are totally out of the market.
The evidence of a near term market peak is mounting so being aware of these risks allows us to become more tactical with portfolios to avoind draw downs as we did in 2000 and again in 2008. No one believed me either in 1999 and 2007 as everything was going to rosy forever.
Rates rising DOES NOT translate into a stronger economy. Housing recovery ends quickly, private investment slows and the whole stocks are cheap story dies quickly. Look at what happened in the 60s and 70s.
Yield chase has been going on for two years. Global recession is setting in and these countries are highly dependent on the US economy for their growth. These were the EXACT same arguments I heard for owning Latin America prior to the last bust. There have been 6 emerging market bubbles in the past...they all end badly. Please be careful with your money.
There is no need to be proven correct. It will happen as it always does. These are just simple rules of risk management. I have been in this game for 30 years at a variety of levels. The reality is that very very few people survive the long term game. Futhermore, I would be willing to wager that most of the commentors here that are bashing the article haven't been investing long. The next bear cycle, when it occurs, will solve most of these issues.
I am far from a permabear and the fact that you took this article as an indication of bearishness means you really don't understand the risk you have undertaken. Gambling will eventually leave you broke.
Just for clarity I have never said a crash was coming. I have warned, as I am now, correctly of the corrections in 2010, 2011 and 2012. If you exagerate the warnings that is allowing yo6r emotions to dictate your trading.
I am not saying there is bubble nor that a crash is coming. It will happen - eventually. The fact that most of the commenters above see no bubble should be a warning in itself. NO ONE EVER SEES A BUBBLE until after the fact. The water is just fine attitude is a risk management trap. There will be another correction this year...most likely this summer that will wipe out most of the years gains, if not more, just as in 2011 and 2012 as I repeatedly stated. If you fail to recognize risk and rebalance accordingly you will not have the opportunity to take advantage of corrections.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
Yes. Most of these were in our weekly newsletter before we launched our blog in 2011. If you will email me (streettalk at streettalklive dot com) I will email you the articles.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
Yes. For the current time the trend is positive so pullbacks to important supports are buying opportunities. However, if you don't harvest profits at extremely overbought conditions you have no cash to buy with at better levels. For all of the commentary contained in these comments we must ALL remember that we are ALL savers and not investors.ournjob is to buy electronic pieces of paper at one price and sell them at a higher price. If we lose our savings because we speculate without understanding the risks what was the point.
Could all this end with higher GDP? Doubtful. I have written many articles at http://bit.ly/Xw3sh8 about the negative impact of debt and deficitsmon GDP growth. The bigger the debt to GDP the weaker growth becomes due to the debt service requirement.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
Earnings are higher due to cost cutting, productivity increases and accounting gimmickry. Top line sales have only risen 20% from the lows. That is not a sign of real economic strength.
Yields are artificial due to suppression so you can not use that as a yard stick for measurement. You didn't read the article where I addressed this specific issue. Real yields would be likely be substantially higher.
The fact that you are not evaluating the risks of being invested seems to be counterintuitive. Even professional gamblers evaluate the odds before betting.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
No argument that it would indeed change the slope. However i am not usre if such an exercise would change much of the analysis. The average length of the secular bear markets would shrink as you would eliminate the great depression, however, that period is as close to a sampling set for the period that we are experiencing today.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
Real unemployment in the U.S. - when counting those that are collecting unemployment checks for 99 weeks is 21%. 18 million on food stamps, 8.8 million on disability and a whole raft of individuals using student loans to pay living expenses and not going to school.
This isn't about fear at all. It is about recognizing the risks that will eventually take a large amount of capital away from you. I was out of the market in 1999 and in early 2008. I got back in the markets in early 2004 and mid 2009. Didn't catch the tops or bottoms but my clients didn't suffer severe capital destruction. That is point of understanding the risks. I am currently invested in the markets and riding the QE driven push - however, you need to understand that this will end, as they always do, and it will end relatively badly.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
Think about what you just stated. It has taken trillions of dollars of artificial interventions to inflate asset prices. Creating an inorganic bubble has never, ever, worked out well. I admire Mr. Saut and have read his stuff for a long time. However, I disagree with him on this point because as opposed to previous market lows in history - those were built on organic fundamental bases. That is clearly not the case today.
There Is No Asset Bubble? [View article]
There Is No Asset Bubble? [View article]
There Is No Asset Bubble? [View article]
There Is No Asset Bubble? [View article]
The evidence of a near term market peak is mounting so being aware of these risks allows us to become more tactical with portfolios to avoind draw downs as we did in 2000 and again in 2008. No one believed me either in 1999 and 2007 as everything was going to rosy forever.
Rates rising DOES NOT translate into a stronger economy. Housing recovery ends quickly, private investment slows and the whole stocks are cheap story dies quickly. Look at what happened in the 60s and 70s.
Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Rules [View article]
Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Rules [View article]
Thanks for the comment.
Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Rules [View article]
Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Rules [View article]
I am not saying there is bubble nor that a crash is coming. It will happen - eventually. The fact that most of the commenters above see no bubble should be a warning in itself. NO ONE EVER SEES A BUBBLE until after the fact. The water is just fine attitude is a risk management trap. There will be another correction this year...most likely this summer that will wipe out most of the years gains, if not more, just as in 2011 and 2012 as I repeatedly stated. If you fail to recognize risk and rebalance accordingly you will not have the opportunity to take advantage of corrections.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
Could all this end with higher GDP? Doubtful. I have written many articles at http://bit.ly/Xw3sh8 about the negative impact of debt and deficitsmon GDP growth. The bigger the debt to GDP the weaker growth becomes due to the debt service requirement.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
Yields are artificial due to suppression so you can not use that as a yard stick for measurement. You didn't read the article where I addressed this specific issue. Real yields would be likely be substantially higher.
The fact that you are not evaluating the risks of being invested seems to be counterintuitive. Even professional gamblers evaluate the odds before betting.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
This isn't about fear at all. It is about recognizing the risks that will eventually take a large amount of capital away from you. I was out of the market in 1999 and in early 2008. I got back in the markets in early 2004 and mid 2009. Didn't catch the tops or bottoms but my clients didn't suffer severe capital destruction. That is point of understanding the risks. I am currently invested in the markets and riding the QE driven push - however, you need to understand that this will end, as they always do, and it will end relatively badly.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]