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Lance Roberts

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  • 3 Reasons The Markets Could Still Go Higher [View article]
    Thank you. A quick review of 2010 and 2011, when Fed support ended, will pretty much give you an idea of what will happen. The real economic and fundamental data is all very weak and the Fed's programs are not translating into the real economy.
    May 31 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons The Markets Could Still Go Higher [View article]
    The majority of my clients are either at, or near, retirement, so our portfolios are built to generate incomes. Therefore, SDY works better that SPY with good performance.
    May 31 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons The Markets Could Still Go Higher [View article]
    Thank you. That means a lot and I do appreciate that.
    May 31 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons The Markets Could Still Go Higher [View article]
    The comment about Bogle is very interesting. How can valuations trade substantially higher when Bogle himself is calling for two major corrections over the next decade of between 30-50%. Of course, his view to navigate that is just to buy and hold. That will work as long as you do run out of time before you retire. :-)
    May 31 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons The Markets Could Still Go Higher [View article]
    You are correct about the STA Risk Ratio....when it turns down from extremely high levels that normally coincides with corrections in the market. Of course, the higher the extreme the bigger the correction normally. However, these are certainly not normal times by any means.

    The problem for contrarians, like me, is that there is a misunderstanding by the "bullish" crowd that just because I point out the inherent risk - that I am not invested in the market. However, the Fed's interventions have clearly made any type of economic or fundamental analysis fairly worthless currently. My suspicion is that when reality returns it will be fairly brutal.
    May 31 09:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is No Asset Bubble? [View article]
    That is true. I will do a follow up article soon with that analysis.
    Mar 24 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is No Asset Bubble? [View article]
    Thank you so much. As an portfolio manager my job is to recognize risks to hedge accordingly. I am currently long the market because the trend is positive. When it no longer is...I won't be. But we don't PAY ATTENTION we fall victim to the slaughter.
    Mar 24 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is No Asset Bubble? [View article]
    Not blaming one guy obviously....substitude The Fed. It is monetary policy that is in question.
    Mar 24 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is No Asset Bubble? [View article]
    We are fully allocated in our portfolios currently. It is always funny reading comments to posts as there is always a misunderstanding that pointing out risks menas somehow you are totally out of the market.

    The evidence of a near term market peak is mounting so being aware of these risks allows us to become more tactical with portfolios to avoind draw downs as we did in 2000 and again in 2008. No one believed me either in 1999 and 2007 as everything was going to rosy forever.

    Rates rising DOES NOT translate into a stronger economy. Housing recovery ends quickly, private investment slows and the whole stocks are cheap story dies quickly. Look at what happened in the 60s and 70s.
    Mar 24 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Rules [View article]
    Yield chase has been going on for two years. Global recession is setting in and these countries are highly dependent on the US economy for their growth. These were the EXACT same arguments I heard for owning Latin America prior to the last bust. There have been 6 emerging market bubbles in the past...they all end badly. Please be careful with your money.
    Feb 20 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Rules [View article]
    There is no need to be proven correct. It will happen as it always does. These are just simple rules of risk management. I have been in this game for 30 years at a variety of levels. The reality is that very very few people survive the long term game. Futhermore, I would be willing to wager that most of the commentors here that are bashing the article haven't been investing long. The next bear cycle, when it occurs, will solve most of these issues.

    Thanks for the comment.
    Feb 19 11:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Rules [View article]
    I am far from a permabear and the fact that you took this article as an indication of bearishness means you really don't understand the risk you have undertaken. Gambling will eventually leave you broke.
    Feb 19 11:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Rules [View article]
    Just for clarity I have never said a crash was coming. I have warned, as I am now, correctly of the corrections in 2010, 2011 and 2012. If you exagerate the warnings that is allowing yo6r emotions to dictate your trading.

    I am not saying there is bubble nor that a crash is coming. It will happen - eventually. The fact that most of the commenters above see no bubble should be a warning in itself. NO ONE EVER SEES A BUBBLE until after the fact. The water is just fine attitude is a risk management trap. There will be another correction this year...most likely this summer that will wipe out most of the years gains, if not more, just as in 2011 and 2012 as I repeatedly stated. If you fail to recognize risk and rebalance accordingly you will not have the opportunity to take advantage of corrections.
    Feb 19 11:32 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
    Yes. Most of these were in our weekly newsletter before we launched our blog in 2011. If you will email me (streettalk at streettalklive dot com) I will email you the articles.
    Feb 10 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
    Yes. For the current time the trend is positive so pullbacks to important supports are buying opportunities. However, if you don't harvest profits at extremely overbought conditions you have no cash to buy with at better levels. For all of the commentary contained in these comments we must ALL remember that we are ALL savers and not investors.ournjob is to buy electronic pieces of paper at one price and sell them at a higher price. If we lose our savings because we speculate without understanding the risks what was the point.

    Could all this end with higher GDP? Doubtful. I have written many articles at http://bit.ly/Xw3sh8 about the negative impact of debt and deficitsmon GDP growth. The bigger the debt to GDP the weaker growth becomes due to the debt service requirement.
    Feb 10 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
49 Comments
63 Likes