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Lance Roberts  

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  • Fischer Keeps Rate Hike Door Open, But Shouldn't [View article]
    Raising rates does not fend off deflation. Raising rates REDUCES inflationary pressures, which is why they raise rates in the first place.

    If raising rates caused inflation, or fended off deflation, the Fed would have jacked rates up sharply immediately following the crisis.

    Raising borrowing costs reduces economic activity and lowers inflationary expectations.
    Sep 1, 2015. 08:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Time Could Be Different [View article]
    Love #4. Awesome. I agree with you and have been doing the same.
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Time Could Be Different [View article]
    If are are 30 years away, the buy a low cost S&P 500 index fund, shovel it full of cash, and never look at it until you retire.

    The problem is that you won't do that. You will try and chase markets, you will buy high, sell low, and make all of myriad of psychological and emotional mistakes along the way.

    Therefore, use major market pull backs to invest a lot of cash, build a well diversified portfolio and follow the basic rules of investing. Buy low, SELL high, sell loser short and let winner's run.

    If it was only that simple....everyone would be rich.
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Time Could Be Different [View article]
    You made my day. Thank you.
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Time Could Be Different [View article]
    You are correct. It is not useful in trying to precisely time entries and exits from the market. However, the market is a reflection of economic growth ultimately, and downturns in economic growth may provide some clues as to the longevity of the current cyclical bull market.

    Again, I am not making a statement that the current bull market is over. However, I do want to analyze the possibility that it could be the case.
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Time Could Be Different [View article]
    Exactly correct. All we can do is pay attention and react accordingly. Price action is simply a road map to follow, not a precise predictor of future outcomes.
    Aug 27, 2015. 08:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Supply-Demand Suggests Pain Not Over Yet [View article]
    Living in Houston I can tell you that supply is an issue. The build in supply is happening at a faster rate than the draw downs, at least currently. With the decline in rigs over the last several months we should start to see a reduction in the supply. That will likely take some time to work through the system and won't be a short-term fix.

    The point of the article is simply that "recency bias" is currently leading investors hoping for a quick recovery. However, fundamentals suggest that such a recovery could be a much longer way off.
    Aug 19, 2015. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Supply-Demand Suggests Pain Not Over Yet [View article]
    No...just an oversight on housing. Multifamily and Commercial is just much more visible. Good comment...thanks.
    Aug 19, 2015. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Supply-Demand Suggests Pain Not Over Yet [View article]
    I will have to do some deeper research on your process. It sounds intriguing. The one dynamic that has to be considered is that there is a substantially higher depletion rate in frac wells than traditional. So replacement rates are substantially higher than historical rates would suggest.
    Aug 19, 2015. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Message From Generation Z: Thanks For Nothing [View article]
    Your points are well made. This is about finger pointing, it is simply a reflection of the realities of 30-years of structural change.

    You are absolutely right about making your own way. I paid my way through college, no debt, lived out of my truck for 3-years at one point building my business, remain self-employed today and employ over 30 people.

    There is ALWAYS opportunity for the few willing to make the sacrifices necessary to build wealth. Unfortunately, the economic data suggests that for a bulk of individuals a continued slow growth economy, structural shift in employment and high debt levels will greatly reduce the opportunity to build wealth in future to the degree afforded to earlier generations.

    It just a function of what the data says.
    Aug 12, 2015. 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Message From Generation Z: Thanks For Nothing [View article]
    That is true...but this time may indeed "be different." The economic data would certainly suggest that to be the case.
    Aug 11, 2015. 08:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's Balance Sheet Still Dictating Market Moves [View article]
    That's awesome. I am going to steal that for a future missive.
    Aug 5, 2015. 08:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's Balance Sheet Still Dictating Market Moves [View article]
    As I have stated several times in previous articles, I think it is entirely possible that the Fed WILL raise rates in September. This is the "lesser of two evils" for them. They must realize, that by a function of elapsed time alone, that we are closer to the next recession than not. Their choice is simply this, don't raise rates and get hit with a recession with rates at zero leaving you no monetary policy tool OR raise rates and trigger a recession or correction but have some policy tool to work with.

    The data suggests clearly that they should NOT raise rates...but I think it is quite possible they will. Could be a "one and done" scenario.
    Aug 5, 2015. 08:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will We Ever Learn? [View article]
    Thank you...of course, all those new investments were the same as the "new investments" of yore. Tulip Bulbs were the original alternative investment.
    Jul 29, 2015. 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will We Ever Learn? [View article]
    Absolutely. The problem, as Howard Marks once stated, is being early is perceived as being wrong. Therefore, investors become blinded to the risk as emotion overtakes logic. Unfortunately, when they realize the risk, it has historically been far too late.
    Jul 29, 2015. 09:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
145 Comments
99 Likes