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Lance Roberts  

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  • Housing Recovery - Real Or Memorex [View article]
    Thank you. Most appreciated.
    May 22, 2015. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things: The Labor Hoarding Effect [View article]
    Thank you for listening and the comments. I appreciate it very much.
    May 18, 2015. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OMG: Putting Jump In Interest Rates Into Perspective [View article]
    You are correct. Despite record tax revenue collections the deficit will expand in the future. This is another reason why real interest rates will not rise in future as the burdensome cost of debt servicing would spiral out of control as debt would have to be issued just to service the debt and welfare.
    May 14, 2015. 08:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dangerfield Recovery Or A Skousen Reality [View article]
    Definitely agree with you. Just turned 50 sit tight and I will catch up with you.
    May 12, 2015. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dangerfield Recovery Or A Skousen Reality [View article]
    Its a good point...however, what Dr. Skousen was looking at specifically is what is the production side of the economic equation doing versus the consumption side. There is no doubt that deficit spending has certainly helped the recovery, however, in theory anyway, deficit spending is only supposed to be a temporary stimulus. Well, that's the theory anyway. ;-)
    May 12, 2015. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Things To Ponder: Margin Of Safety [View article]
    Blue Okie

    The reason you don't check your home value daily is because you LIVE in your home. You didn't buy your home to make money, build wealth, etc. You bought it to live in, raise a family in, build memories in.

    However, when stock prices fall far enough, people care and they care a lot. Plenty of Dalbar studies, and others, show that despite the best of intentions when prices fall far enough "fear" overtakes logic. This is where the old adage of "buying blood in the streets" comes from.

    Houses are not a good example for investing. My house can go up or down in value but I still have a place to live.

    If my stock portfolio is cut in half, I may not have enough to live on in retirement.

    Those are two different things and people react differently due to that. But this is why managing portfolio risk wins the true long game because you can not only survive the eventually reversions but profit from them.
    May 11, 2015. 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Things To Ponder: Margin Of Safety [View article]
    The problem is that the MAJORITY of individuals, despite the best of their intentions, will not ACTUALLY make it through the decline.

    They will panic sell when they have lost 30-50% of their portfolio.

    Haven't you ever wondered why there is NO successful long term investor that simply "buys and holds." Even the great Warren Buffet sells stuff every now and then. "Buy low/Sell high", "Let winners run/sell losers short," etc. are all Wall Street wisdoms for a reason.

    The key to long term investment success is the management of risk. While rising bull markets are great, it hides the expansion of risk which is only revealed during the next decline.
    May 11, 2015. 07:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Things To Ponder: Margin Of Safety [View article]
    There is a huge mistake that is made by individuals with respect to "market timing."

    Market timing - is being "all in" or "all out." This can not be done successfully over the long term.

    However, the most basic premise of investing is "buy low" and "sell high."

    This is often misconstrued as "market timing," however, what it really refers to is the basics of "real investing" which is that you make, or add to, investments on opportunity and "take profits" by "reducing some" of the position when prices/valuations begin to reach extremes.

    What is ALWAYS MISUNDERSTOOD is the notion of missing the 10 best days of the market. You are, IN FACT, much better off missing the 10 WORST days of the markets which are ALWAYS clustered in bear market declines.

    This is why the TREND of prices and the markets are indeed your friend. When the trend turns from positive to negative, which is extremely easy to see if you are paying attention, it is time to REDUCE RISK exposure.

    This does not mean SELL ALL, it means to rebalance portfolios, reduce excess risk and follow the basic time tested principals of portfolio management.
    May 11, 2015. 07:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Things To Ponder: Margin Of Safety [View article]
    Appreciate the comment but you are taking the article out of context. As a manager of your own money, it is important to consider various viewpoints about the markets, economy, etc.

    This is in order to prevent "confirmation bias." This is a weekly reading list of articles I put together to help provide context around a theme, topic or event.

    It is not meant to provide "content," the "content" is provided by the author's of the various articles. Your job is to read and analyze the viewpoints to make a more informed decision about the "risk" you are taking with your portfolio.
    May 11, 2015. 07:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Mistake Eveyone Is Making About Fed Rate Hikes [View article]
    Let's start with the economic fundamentals. Corporate america and earnings are not necessarily a result of strong economic underpinnings considering the length of accounting manipulations, share buybacks and cost cutting pushing EPS higher without a corresponding surge in revenue.

    Secondly, 93 million outside the labor force, no wage growth, 72% living paycheck-to-paycheck and 54% of 16-54 year olds not working. Not really a sign of strong economic fundamentals.

    However, as far as an investment I have written many times in the past, the bullish trend is still very much intact which states that portfolio models should be fully allocated. However, there will be a point that the trend is no longer positive and allocations must be reduced. It is like this...until it is like that.
    May 6, 2015. 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Myth Or Reality: 'Sell In May' [View article]
    Lol....thanks. May want to read this:
    May 5, 2015. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Financial Crisis That Is Looming [View article]
    It is impossible to pick a target for the end of a bull market run which has historically ended marked by peak exuberance. In other words, bull markets last longer and go farther than anyone predicts.

    This is why I pay so much attention to longer term price trends. As long as the bullish trend is intact, as it is now, you remain invested. Changes to the longer term trend have historically marked significant peaks.

    Change occurs at the margin and price will reflect that change long before earnings or other fundamental measures provide sufficient evidence of a real change.
    May 4, 2015. 07:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Market Most Overbought/Leveraged In History [View article]
    Appreciate the comment. My portfolios have been and continue to be fully invested.

    As I stated to BBRO, there is a misunderstanding about contrarians. Just because I suggest that risk may be elevated for a particular reason...does not mean I am sitting in cash. What it does mean is that I am aware of what might lead to a loss of capital of which I can not afford for my clients.
    May 3, 2015. 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Market Most Overbought/Leveraged In History [View article]

    A couple of things. First, the majority of my articles are not posted hear so you are pulling things out of context. My portfolios have been and continue to be fully invested.

    However, what good does it do anyone to discuss why markets will go "up." We are already invested so if they go up, great. What we need to be aware of is why they might go down. The loss of capital is what we are trying to avoid.

    The problem with your economic data points is that most of the ones you have pointed too have legacy issues. For example, real private payroll growth is likely about 3.5 million lower than headlines suggests due to the fact the private businesses have been on the decline averaging about 70000 a year for the last 5 years.

    Furthermore, if employment was as stout as headline statistics suggest, there wouldn't be 93 million sitting outside the labor force, 54% of 16-54 year olds not working, or wages remain stagnant. All of the relevant data suggests that many of the economic data points are suffering from legacy statistical adjustment formulas that are overstating the post-financial crisis environment.

    Lastly, if the economy is so great then why on earth would we need 3 massive QE programs to keep it from grinding to a halt?
    May 3, 2015. 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Market Most Overbought/Leveraged In History [View article]
    Great point. There is no rule that says rates have to move .25 at a time. Why not a much smaller increment to "test" the waters?
    May 3, 2015. 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment