Lance Roberts

Long/short equity, investment advisor, registered investment advisor
Lance Roberts
Long/short equity, investment advisor, registered investment advisor
Contributor since: 2011
Company: Real Investment Advice by Lance Roberts
Thank you very much...I do appreciate that. I agree.
I agree with you.
You need to break the "neckline" support around recent lows...then come back up, test it and fail. That is the point to go short. Haven't got there quite yet. Looks like you are doing all the right things.
LOL...that is true. I am assuming, by my statement, that you are in GROWTH mode (risk taking) for assets and that you switch to more INCOME mode (conservative) at retirement. So, if you keep blowing yourself up while in GROWTH mode, you don't have the assets necessary to switch to INCOME mode.
Hope that makes sense.
Thank you. I agree.
The only problem is the even the SSA says that they will begin running out of money early in the next decade and that payments could be reduced to 70%.
Furthermore, given that nearly 90% of American's have less than $200k in savings...it IS a problem.
Just an example. But I agree with you. That is a different article I am working on though.
I have a question?
Who ever said the goal of investing was to beat a random index that pays no taxes, has no expenses, no retirement date and benefits from stock buybacks and substitution?
Should not the goal of investing actually be beating the rate of inflation to ensure that your savings have the same purchasing power in the future and NOT LOSING a vast chunk of your savings during market downturns?
The "beat the index" mantra is a marketing program built by WallStreet to sell you products. The performance chase keeps money moving which creates fees for WallStreet and losses for investors.
It is worth noting that the "beat the index" game didn't exist prior to 1990. That is a media driven invention that needs to go away. All it does is harm investors.
Investing is about growing your SAVINGS. You know...those very hard earned dollars that work for everyday.
While your points are very valid...you missed the entire point of the article.
MARKET TIMING is being ALL IN or ALL OUT of the market. That is NOT what I am discussing.
The whole point of money management is to manage the risk of LOSS over time.
However, you point of Buy Low is EXACTLY RIGHT. However, you CAN'T buy low if you never sold along the way.
Money management is about managing the risk of loss over time. If you ride the markets up and down, that is fine, but what have you achieved? This is particularly the case if you were at the point of needing your money for retirement at the bottom of a down cycle.
The problem with your argument is, as you suggest, most people are too stupid to manage their money. Therefore, they should just buy stuff and hope it goes up over time. That has been a very poor strategy since the turn of the century with people left very far behind of their retirement goals.
That is a good point. Unfortunately, most American's are still heavily indebted. They may not have a mortgage payment, but credit debt is still very high.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate that.
You're just being bearish... ;-) Lol.
Thank you. Those are some good additional points.
Not really. It is always hard to now exactly where a market will bounce too. However, 1990 is previous resistance BUT, it is a NEIGHBORHOOD and not an exact sell point.
While it is possible the markets could rally back to previous support at 1990, what we are looking for primarily is for current oversold conditions to be alleviated. Regardless of where the markets are trading, the time to begin reducing risk is when the short-term overbought conditions return.
Thank you. Yes, I use option hedging when needed particularly when clients have legacy positions that either need to be worked out of over time or do not want to be sold. However, for MOST clients, the complexity of option hedging and turnover is too difficult. There is a fine balance when managing money for others where a strategy becomes too complex, even if it is correct, and leads to client loss.
Yes...you will find that bounces in bear markets tend to be very strong, particularly in more recent years as electronic trading make the swings more volatile.
There is validity to that argument, however, I can't predict that far into the future. This is why I focus on shorter term "milestones" for the market, letting each give some clues as to where the next is likely to occur. If we go to 1780 or 1500, it won't likely happen in one fell swoop. In otherwords, I prefer to let the market TELL me what it is doing rather than trying to GUESS what it will do.
Thank you so much. That is very appreciated
Agreed.
Yes...support was broken, now it is October lows that must hold. A rally to 1990 that fails and I will reduce the equity allocation to its final position of just 25% of the total allocation (15% equity in a 60/40 model)
The portfolio is currently only 30% equity. However, that will drop to 15% equity if the market breaks the bullish trend line that begin in 2009.
I have always wondered about that.... ;-)
Thank you very much. Merry Christmas to you as well.
I agree...2016 will likely not be much easier to trade than this year was.
Thank you so much. Merry Christmas.
Happy Thanksgiving
12 months and 36 months. 24/48 works just as well just a bit more lag time.
Thank you very much. I appreciate it.
I don't know about you, but my wife bought me one of those fancy coffee makers for Christmas last year that will brew just about anything and change the oil in car. Trust me....you need a degree in Astro Physics to figure that thing out! ;-)
Thank you very much for the repost.
Thank you . I appreciate your anecdote. It is something that I have witnessed to a great degree in Houston with my friends that own restaurants. They all have individuals with Master Degrees waiting tables....but hey, the economy is great and stocks are near record highs.
Very good point...thank you.