The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
Appreciate the comment but don't confuse pointing out risks as not being invested. As a manager my job is to protect client capital first and create returns second. Risk adjusted returns can't be achieved by ignoring the risk and following the cheerleader hype on CNBC. This is the problem with the "bull vs bear" label - it blinds you from looking at the risk until you have lost a substantial amount of principal. Making money is easy - recovering lost principal is a different game entirely.
Just for clarity I have never said a crash was coming. I have warned, as I am now, correctly of the corrections in 2010, 2011 and 2012. If you exagerate the warnings that is allowing yo6r emotions to dictate your trading.
I am not saying there is bubble nor that a crash is coming. It will happen - eventually. The fact that most of the commenters above see no bubble should be a warning in itself. NO ONE EVER SEES A BUBBLE until after the fact. The water is just fine attitude is a risk management trap. There will be another correction this year...most likely this summer that will wipe out most of the years gains, if not more, just as in 2011 and 2012 as I repeatedly stated. If you fail to recognize risk and rebalance accordingly you will not have the opportunity to take advantage of corrections.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
Thank you. After 30+ years in the markets it is always interesting to see the extrapolation of trends into infinity. Yes we are up substantially from the lows of 2009 - but without an organic base. So, it is quite "logical" that the markets will continue to rally indefinitely into the future without risk. I have seen that battlefield littered with bodies too many times.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
The March 2009 lows will likely be our long term bottom with the exception of some exogenous shock that leads to sharply higher interest rates. By the way, those calling for an end to the bond bull market and running into stocks are jumping from the frying pan into the fire. If interest rates rise sharply for any reason the stock market will get crushed.
We will most likely see at least a 20% correction, if not potentially larger due to a recession, before we get to 1700.
My outlook would most definitely change if the Fed stopped liquefying the markets, the government stopped intervening to support housing, etc. - and the markets were able to exist on an organic basis. That is clearly not the case. The only reason that you have the markets where they are today is due to over $32 Trillion of injections, supports, bailouts, etc. That is not the sign of a healthy capitalistic market.
Market Issues Confirmed Sell Signal [View article]
Actually, we have been issuing sell signals, as indicated, since late March and early April. This is a "confirming" sell signal which leads to bigger corrections. It also, as stated, changes our strategy from "buying dips" to "selling rallies". As far as the Fed stepping in - I wouldn't be overly confident of that in the short term. The Fed needs more economic weakness for "permission" to step in. That could be a while and at lower levels on the market.
There is no need to be proven correct. It will happen as it always does. These are just simple rules of risk management. I have been in this game for 30 years at a variety of levels. The reality is that very very few people survive the long term game. Futhermore, I would be willing to wager that most of the commentors here that are bashing the article haven't been investing long. The next bear cycle, when it occurs, will solve most of these issues.
I am far from a permabear and the fact that you took this article as an indication of bearishness means you really don't understand the risk you have undertaken. Gambling will eventually leave you broke.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
Real unemployment in the U.S. - when counting those that are collecting unemployment checks for 99 weeks is 21%. 18 million on food stamps, 8.8 million on disability and a whole raft of individuals using student loans to pay living expenses and not going to school.
This isn't about fear at all. It is about recognizing the risks that will eventually take a large amount of capital away from you. I was out of the market in 1999 and in early 2008. I got back in the markets in early 2004 and mid 2009. Didn't catch the tops or bottoms but my clients didn't suffer severe capital destruction. That is point of understanding the risks. I am currently invested in the markets and riding the QE driven push - however, you need to understand that this will end, as they always do, and it will end relatively badly.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
Think about what you just stated. It has taken trillions of dollars of artificial interventions to inflate asset prices. Creating an inorganic bubble has never, ever, worked out well. I admire Mr. Saut and have read his stuff for a long time. However, I disagree with him on this point because as opposed to previous market lows in history - those were built on organic fundamental bases. That is clearly not the case today.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
Yes...that is correct. However, not utilizing all of the data would be disingenuous. Smaller sampling sets lead to higher margins of error and less reliable results.
Market Issues Confirmed Sell Signal [View article]
If you read the article rather than just make baseless accusations the whole last section CLEARLY states to sell and raise cash reversal. I certainly don't mind criticism but you have been attacking me for no reason.
The 'Real' Employment Situation Report [View article]
I agree with you. I am working on some analysis to take into account the rash of boomers moving into retirement. Of course, since most of those are woefully underprepared for retirement we may see more pushing to stay in the labor pool longer.
Is The Market Predicting The Next Crisis? [View article]
Sid
Thank you. Unfortunately, I didn't start blogging here on SA until just recently. However, we did discuss getting out of the market back at the end of April due to the "sell signal" that occurred back then and as identified in the chart above.
This post was more of an update to what we have been discussing since that time.
I am now copying the majority of the daily posts from our website to here so as our signals occur they will be more timely here on SA.
3 Reasons The Markets Could Still Go Higher [View article]
You are correct about the STA Risk Ratio....when it turns down from extremely high levels that normally coincides with corrections in the market. Of course, the higher the extreme the bigger the correction normally. However, these are certainly not normal times by any means.
The problem for contrarians, like me, is that there is a misunderstanding by the "bullish" crowd that just because I point out the inherent risk - that I am not invested in the market. However, the Fed's interventions have clearly made any type of economic or fundamental analysis fairly worthless currently. My suspicion is that when reality returns it will be fairly brutal.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
No argument that it would indeed change the slope. However i am not usre if such an exercise would change much of the analysis. The average length of the secular bear markets would shrink as you would eliminate the great depression, however, that period is as close to a sampling set for the period that we are experiencing today.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Rules [View article]
I am not saying there is bubble nor that a crash is coming. It will happen - eventually. The fact that most of the commenters above see no bubble should be a warning in itself. NO ONE EVER SEES A BUBBLE until after the fact. The water is just fine attitude is a risk management trap. There will be another correction this year...most likely this summer that will wipe out most of the years gains, if not more, just as in 2011 and 2012 as I repeatedly stated. If you fail to recognize risk and rebalance accordingly you will not have the opportunity to take advantage of corrections.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
We will most likely see at least a 20% correction, if not potentially larger due to a recession, before we get to 1700.
My outlook would most definitely change if the Fed stopped liquefying the markets, the government stopped intervening to support housing, etc. - and the markets were able to exist on an organic basis. That is clearly not the case. The only reason that you have the markets where they are today is due to over $32 Trillion of injections, supports, bailouts, etc. That is not the sign of a healthy capitalistic market.
Market Issues Confirmed Sell Signal [View article]
Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Rules [View article]
Thanks for the comment.
Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Rules [View article]
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
This isn't about fear at all. It is about recognizing the risks that will eventually take a large amount of capital away from you. I was out of the market in 1999 and in early 2008. I got back in the markets in early 2004 and mid 2009. Didn't catch the tops or bottoms but my clients didn't suffer severe capital destruction. That is point of understanding the risks. I am currently invested in the markets and riding the QE driven push - however, you need to understand that this will end, as they always do, and it will end relatively badly.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]
Market Issues Confirmed Sell Signal [View article]
The 'Real' Employment Situation Report [View article]
Is The Market Predicting The Next Crisis? [View article]
Thank you. Unfortunately, I didn't start blogging here on SA until just recently. However, we did discuss getting out of the market back at the end of April due to the "sell signal" that occurred back then and as identified in the chart above.
This post was more of an update to what we have been discussing since that time.
I am now copying the majority of the daily posts from our website to here so as our signals occur they will be more timely here on SA.
Thank you.
3 Reasons The Markets Could Still Go Higher [View article]
The problem for contrarians, like me, is that there is a misunderstanding by the "bullish" crowd that just because I point out the inherent risk - that I am not invested in the market. However, the Fed's interventions have clearly made any type of economic or fundamental analysis fairly worthless currently. My suspicion is that when reality returns it will be fairly brutal.
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away [View article]