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  • Don't Expect A Rate Reduction From The Reserve Bank Of Australia [View article]
    I am afraid you have it backwards: the strong dollar is the result of high interest rates. If RBA lowers the rates, the AUD will go lower due to carry trade unwind.
    Aug 8 09:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perion Networks - A Sinking Ship, An Immediate Short Opportunity With A 40% Downside [View article]
    Envoy, would you kindly provide links to Israeli newspaper articles you referred to. I read Haaretz and JPost quite a bit and saw nothing new explaining why Client Connect was sold apart from well-known facts such as Conduit wants to split the company in two to focus on mobile and cash out its large holders. All these points were covered in Perion conf call and presentations.

    Just like the author of the article, you seem to be quick to make bold claims or drop hints without providing any evidence to support it.

    Here's what I read in Haaretz - no secrets revealed:

    http://bit.ly/1pZtc92
    Jun 22 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perion: A Likely Victim Of 'Short And Distort' [View article]
    Envoy, I followed the company since 2009. I've met with CEO and CFO one-on-one several times in last 3 years. When Mandelbaum came on board in July 2010, the stock was at just above $4. It's at about $10 today and was at almost $15 last year. If you held the stock during his tenure, yiu sould be a pretty happy investor despite latest stock price poor performance.

    I recommend you read this: http://seekingalpha.co... to see that not only I know the company, but I actually tested their products in some detail.

    Prior two acquisitions have been accretive, this one will be if Perion hits its guidance. I don't understand why you think issuing new stock to make acquisitions or raise money is necessarily "dilutive". This is not how corporate finance works. If you new ROIC on new equity is above the cost of capital, you didn't dilute anything.

    I also don't understand your comment about "legacy" products. They are still very much available and contribute to top and bottom lines. Perion bought them to monetize their downloads, not to invest in their R&D. I don't see it as a poor business model.

    Finally, you seem to be genuinely angry about the company in which you have no position, did you buy it at $14 last year?
    Jun 20 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perion: A Likely Victim Of 'Short And Distort' [View article]
    PERI has generated 13 million in op cash in just Q1 and has 51 million available at the end of Q1. I don't think liquidity is an issue unless they want to swallow another whale.
    Jun 19 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perion: A Likely Victim Of 'Short And Distort' [View article]
    Thanks. Apparently some posters still rebut this with "I hate this company because it's dying $%^&*!".

    I will correct a spelling error. Thanks for pointing it out.
    Jun 19 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perion: A Likely Victim Of 'Short And Distort' [View article]
    All I said about the source it is not credible because it's not who they say there are. I have a forwarded email when someone on the day of publication contacted another SA author trying to coordinate a short sell. SA team has a copy of this email but asked me not to publish it as they are investigating. I absolutely believe that Athena Research doesn't exist as a multinational research firm and challenge them to prove me wrong (which should have been very easy if I was).

    Can you please provide where my rebuttal is not based on numbers, transcripts, or official filings? For example where Athena said PERI top line collapsed in 2013, I provided the actual revenue where it shows it significantly grew. If correcting an obvious inaccuracy (I refrain from using a stronger word) seems "ad hominem" to you, we are differ in definition. Where Athena pointed out that Perion pledged all assets in a loan, I pointed out that it dropped a crucial sentence making the whole point moot in the same paragraph of 20F.

    On some points you are correct, PERI is still a "toolbar" monetization company at heart. Every presentation and financial filing clearly shows that. The are very open about buying companies to make money from toolbar and search pages installed during download. Why is it a dying business again? Is this because the users decided to pay for free apps from download.com?

    Download Java from Oracle and it will prompt you to install McAfee antivirus, download iTunes from Apple and it will prompt to download Safari and make it a default browser upon opening. Are Oracle and Apple also "dying businesses"? If you don't like it, you can pay for otherwise free products, but if you want to get an idea that you would be in a tiny minority, compare the number of free Pandora users (service interrupted by commercials) and paying ones. I don't see Perion business model fundamentally different. It creates an inconvenience (or nuisance) for the right to use free service.

    I agree that Mobile is long term threat but the growth of Desktop losing share to mobile in browsing is actually slowing down this year and mobile share in browaing is still rather small. A lot of investors cannot distinguish between growth in mobile usage for apps (Facebook desktop and Mobile Facebook) and browsing where it's still under 20%.

    http://bit.ly/1uHRa6x

    If you add natural internet user growth, desktop is not losing users any longer overall.


    >> The only way PERI will succeed is if Mandelbaum succeeds in finding some Israeli VC's to park a valuable Internet business within PERI in lieu of going public.

    You lost me here. I have no idea what this means. I hope this is not Mandelbaum's plan (he never said it was) or I would be short the stock.
    Jun 19 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perion Networks - A Sinking Ship, An Immediate Short Opportunity With A 40% Downside [View article]
    If you look at PERI peer group in US, both BLUC and AVG unperformed the market so PERI is not alone. If PERI didn't do mergers, it would be called today Incredimail and probably be a pink sheet stock. Just look at the stock price since Mandelbaum came on board - you should have done quite well if you held it for a few years. The market hated previous two acquisitions at first until the cash flow started pouring in.

    I don't think he needs to land a "new big deal" at all. The PC business is not dying at all, it simply stopped growing, it lost to mobile a share rapidly at first but since stabilized.

    Bing actually needs PERI more than Google as it's trying to take/maintain market share.

    I agree there are very significant risks here but also very significant rewards. Investors who bought AVG in February please nod your heads.
    Jun 19 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perion Networks - A Sinking Ship, An Immediate Short Opportunity With A 40% Downside [View article]
    You have a basic math problem. First you stated:

    "Our conservative $6.8 price target is based on a conservative P/E multiple of 12X which we apply to our calculations"

    Now you state:

    "Our valuation is based on an annual income of 55 mil"

    If I multiply, 55 x 12 = 660 million, which is about 5% below its current market cap.

    You seem to just throw random numbers around without any justification. By the way Q4, is the strongest quarter, not Q1, just another factual error.
    Jun 18 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perion Networks - A Sinking Ship, An Immediate Short Opportunity With A 40% Downside [View article]
    I have some evidence that the outfit Athena Research as it claims to be an arm of mutli-national asset manager doesn't really exist and the person is engaged in fraud misrepresenting himself or herself as a researcher for a hedge fund .

    Please Google Athena Research and Athena Group (ZILCH!) and the Google Athena CAPITAL Research (major company) and decide for yourself.
    Jun 17 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Perion Networks - A Sinking Ship, An Immediate Short Opportunity With A 40% Downside [View article]
    The quality of this article is more suitable for Yahoo message board posting than "pro" section for SeekingAlpha.

    The article ignores the most basic facts about the company, readily available in its quarterly releases and filed financial statements.

    First of all, Perion has 51 million in cash and equivalents at the end of Q1 on its balance sheet, exceeding any outstanding loans. It's often cheaper to take a loan to finance the merger or dividend than use B/S cash. If you don't believe me, look at AAPL or MSFT balance sheets: they have plenty of cash, yet issue debt for tax reasons. Perion paid out all excess cash to Conduit shareholders at the closing, hence the need for a loan.

    Perion earned $27 million (or $108 on annualized basis) in Q1 and guided for earnings of $103 to $108 million this year, implying forward P/E of less than 7 at the current price. You ether predict that their earning will collapse this year (near impossible as Bing deal is not up for renewal until the very end of the year) or simply made an egregious math error. If we are to believe your calculation, Perion will earn only $38 million this year, or LESS THAN HALF in three remaining quarters COMBINED than it earned in Q1. Your quote is below:

    "Our conservative $6.8 price target is based on a conservative P/E multiple of 12X which we apply to our calculations, based on our FY2014 revenue forecast of barely ~$405.0M. "

    Would you care to provide at least some detail how you arrived at the earnings part? Why do you think the margins will tank when they just expended?

    I agree that long term Perion business model bears significant risk as it lives at Bing/Google mercy (Yahoo is less and less relevant today) and Mobile is a long-term threat where it doesn't have proven products yet. Yet getting bigger puts them in a better negotiating position so it was the right move.

    I congratulate you on eking out a 1.5% shorts profit from a headline, but this article mostly fact-free and has little research value.
    Jun 17 12:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon added to Goldman's Conviction Buy list [View news story]
    Well, AMZN's return on invested capital is a terrible 2.4%, which is still not as terrible as its operating margins of 0.91%. Makes perfect sense.
    Jun 11 06:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market: Is Amazon's Smartphone A Game Changer? [View article]
    I am very disappointed. I fully expected a 4D phone or Virtual Reality phone, or even better "Emperor New Clothes" phone, since it's most likely underwhelming vaporware that will probably fail to capture any serious market share, even when sold below cost (just like Kindle Fire). Bezos always looks for creative ways to lose more investors' money. And, hey, what happened to the shipping drones?

    An absurd idea that having an Amazon phone will drive users to buy more from Amazon has already been proven false by Apple and Google who failed to capitalize on OS market share. How's Google and Apple eCommerce sales?

    My guess is that we are looking at a double digit stock by next year which would still be grossly overpriced.
    Jun 5 06:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FitLife Is Very Cheap, But Probably Not For Long [View article]
    Agree. Time to buy more. In general Q4 and Q1 are weak quarter (holidays and bad weather lead to less working out). In Q2 consumers start to get in the "beach shape".

    The weakness wasn't even the case as sales grew strong in Q1. Investors may be a bit confused by cash flow and balance sheet but it has a lot of noise due to balance sheet restructuring last year.
    May 30 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce +2.5% AH on FQ1 beat, solid revenue guidance [View news story]
    On cash flow basis Madoff investments were also profitable until 2008 for this very reason. He got money upfront and never paid anything back.

    Economically speaking, CRM is probably marginally profitable, after one normalized their FCF for negative working capital, stock compensation, and maintenance capex but the company should be trading at 4-5x its sales at most as its software peers, not current 8x.
    May 20 09:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Overvalued S&P 500 Stock Is...? [View article]
    I would say CRM is more overpriced than AMZN. If you look at CRM real GAAP numbers, not the non-GAAP fantasy they present to investors.
    May 15 12:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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