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  • Versar Is A Victim Of Ebola Bubble [View article]
    1. Thanks, corrected.

    2. But they may have nothing to offer?
    Oct 14, 2014. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Versar Is A Victim Of Ebola Bubble [View article]
    I have a typo in the article:
    "I made my revenue estimate based on VRS trading at about 3X its revenue" should be "I made my revenue estimate based on VRS trading at about 1/3X its revenue".

    The corrected article has been resubmitted.
    Oct 14, 2014. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Impact On Web.com Will Be Less Than Expected [View article]
    The debt dropped because it was converted into equity via convertible dilution. Even their own presentation trumpeted how they reduced their first-lien loan ratio via conversion.

    Yes, sorry, FTC is investigating their "marketing" practices, but I venture to guess it has something to do with a "free trial period" which is not so free after all.

    And yes sorry, there is no free cash flow (at least in a normal economic sense), I think I and others beat to death in my article but we just have to disagree.

    On the last point of spotting a unicorn, how many analysts followed and how many managers put money into Enron, Worldcom, Longtop Financial, Sino-forrest, NQ, Saytam, Lehman, etc. so give me a break!
    Oct 3, 2014. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Impact On Web.com Will Be Less Than Expected [View article]
    David,

    The company has been burning cash. I went in some detail in my article to explain how they fake the numbers http://bit.ly/1xKESjD in their presentations to claim they have positive cash flow. The only reason you saw improvement in the balance sheet in last two quarters because they issues dilutive convertible bonds which count as part equity part debt (basically they issued more future shares).

    The customer comments are uniformly negative and are very specific about billing practices as they can't cancel after a "trial period" and forced into additional services. There are hundreds of complaints if you search "web.com reviews" or "web.com complaints like this one: http://bit.ly/1xKEO3u.

    And, finally, why didn’t you mention FTC investigation into their billing practices (quietly snuck in in their last 10Q but not announced otherwise)? I investigated this company for a year and it just screams “fraud”.
    Oct 3, 2014. 10:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CSS Industries: Stable Fundamentals, Cash-Rich Balance Sheet, And Deep Undervaluation Argue For 30%+ Upside [View article]
    Very good point, Steffen. I looked at the company a year ago and all I saw is a terminally declining business. Hard to blame the management - they are playing the cards they were dealt. If I were to model 5-7% top line decline every year, as the trend seems to imply, I am sure the valuation would be much more in line with the current market value.
    Oct 1, 2014. 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Impact On Web.com Will Be Less Than Expected [View article]
    David, I suggest you dig deeper, Google is the least of their problems. Their aggresive non-GAAP accounting and endless stock promotion are the only factors holding the stock up. The company is making no money and has no real cash flow - the issues which have been discussed ad naseum in prior articles. Once they churn (12% a year) through acquired customers from Regsiter.com and Netsolutions.com, they are dead. Go to their Web site and see if you want to use their services and read customer reviews about how they keep on charging credit cards after the service is cancelled. If you are literate enough to use a computer, you'd never need their service. That's why they advertise mostly on TV.

    By the way, did you notice in their last 10Q filing that FTC is investigating their billing practices?
    Sep 30, 2014. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bet On The Bebe Turnaround? Maybe At (Much) Lower Prices [View article]
    >> I believe you shouldn't add back the assets because they are not salable whereas the operating leases are real liabilities.

    Alterantively, you can write them up as "pre-paid" rent asset vs. lease liability and reduce both asset and liablity when the actual rent is paid. The key here that op leases conversion to cap leases should increase both assets and liablities. Stating that Op Leases just increase the levargae doesn't not paint an objective picture.

    I recommend these notes from Damodaran for a full dicussion:

    http://bit.ly/1cyCYXB
    Sep 24, 2014. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bet On The Bebe Turnaround? Maybe At (Much) Lower Prices [View article]
    Very good analysis overall but I also think it's unnecessary gloomy. Everything being equals with struggling retails, the ones with the strongest balance sheet will win. BODY, for example, had no chance to execute a reasonable turnaround strategy as the lenders were knocking on its door.

    I also agree with Wisdom about OP leases and would like to add that you should write-up corresponding fixed assets when you classify op leases as debt. The overall result should be a wash for book value.
    Sep 24, 2014. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is CALPERs Making A Huge Mistake? [View article]
    "Many of these types of things did not "work" in 2008 in part because markets stopped functioning for a time".

    Oh please. Most hedge funds lag in bull markets because they are "alternative assets" and trail in bear markets because the markets are "not functioning" (as their models predicted). Their fees though have good returns and low volatilities.

    There are really very few hedge funds that provide values. Most are just money transfer schemes from teachers and firefighters to rich people.
    Sep 18, 2014. 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The UAW makes noise again in Chattanooga [View news story]
    Looks like Germans want their jobs back:

    Mr. Casteel said he has informally discussed the UAW's progress with VW management and has gained support from German unions.
    Sep 17, 2014. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor For August: Amazon Shines While eBay Falls [View article]
    "I expect a solid Q3 earnings for AMZN". What earnings?
    Sep 11, 2014. 04:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Turnaround Will Return 100% Within 3 Years [View article]
    Larry, good article but there are two problems with your argument. The bad acquisitions have been made under the watch of the current CEO who was brought in as CFO specifically to help with M&A and Madison, aka "voting shareholder" entity, was (supposedly) advising on these acquisitions. And just like Don Corleone I don't believe ion coincidences: Cohen fired the board and the management right after they cancelled his lucrative "consulting" agreement.

    So why do you think the new management is any better than the old one?
    Sep 10, 2014. 09:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerson Radio Corp. Update [View article]
    Paulo, you submitted this article before it was announced that Vincent Fok has decided not to seek re-election to MSN board. Fok is the liquidator of the parent (and a well-paid insider) who kept the whole Grande charade going. He submitted a new plan in Hong Kong on July 9 to re-list Grande so it could hang on to MSN (and keep on slowly bleeding its cash). The creditors wanted Grande assets liquidated making MSN sale/liquidation very likely. Quite likely, he is jumping the ship because his relisting plan is about to be rejected by the court.
    Here’s your 100% up real catalyst. Forget the dividend!
    Aug 22, 2014. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Expect A Rate Reduction From The Reserve Bank Of Australia [View article]
    I am afraid you have it backwards: the strong dollar is the result of high interest rates. If RBA lowers the rates, the AUD will go lower due to carry trade unwind.
    Aug 8, 2014. 09:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perion Networks - A Sinking Ship, An Immediate Short Opportunity With A 40% Downside [View article]
    Envoy, would you kindly provide links to Israeli newspaper articles you referred to. I read Haaretz and JPost quite a bit and saw nothing new explaining why Client Connect was sold apart from well-known facts such as Conduit wants to split the company in two to focus on mobile and cash out its large holders. All these points were covered in Perion conf call and presentations.

    Just like the author of the article, you seem to be quick to make bold claims or drop hints without providing any evidence to support it.

    Here's what I read in Haaretz - no secrets revealed:

    http://bit.ly/1pZtc92
    Jun 22, 2014. 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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