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  • Biolase Is On The Move [View instapost]
    Agree. Looks suspicious and the volume was up.
    Dec 30 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commtouch: An Obvious Acquisition Target [View article]
    Yes, I met with the management during Imperial Capital Conference two weeks ago. The CFO was new and the President was the former CEO.
    Dec 30 04:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commtouch: An Obvious Acquisition Target [View article]
    Thank you!
    Dec 30 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Very Few 'No Dividend / No BuyBack' Companies In The S&P 500 Index [View article]
    Google should really start buybacks or paying dividends. I'm afraid they might want to make a foolish acquisition instead like buying Netflix.

    Amazon, on the other hand, is pretty poor if you look at their balance sheet. Take out stock dilution, and they would be bleeding cash for two years. They only found the way to take money from investors and throw it in structurally unprofitable business of selling everything at the lowest price with free shipping for $79 a year. At some point of time, the investors will want the actual profits back instead of fables of "investing in the future".

    Someone in the next two years will be looking at a low double digit AMZN stock in his or her portfolio: "what the hell was I thinking in 2013??"
    Dec 29 05:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commtouch: An Obvious Acquisition Target [View article]
    I believe email encryption is well covered by open source software which is, of course, free: http://bit.ly/19v9JAX.

    So this may be a tough sell.
    Dec 29 10:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Will Stay Flat But You Can Win By Buying Losers (Part 1) [View article]
    I believe you perpetuate one of the worst investment myths started by Paul Tudor Jones: "Losers average losers". I urge you to look at a 3 year chart for BBY, NFLX, MU, and HPQ - three best performing stocks of S&P 500 and the best performer in Dow Jones and revisit you investment philosophy. Looks like AAPL may join this category soon too.

    I am not advising here blindly buying losers stocks, but usually the best returns can be derived from former "losers".
    Dec 25 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Will Stay Flat But You Can Win By Buying Losers (Part 1) [View article]
    Staniel, I agree that quantifying the overall market effect of tax-loss selling is difficult. However, it's not that tough to spot examples of tax-selling losers where the stocks significantly went down on no news and no explainable reason. Just look at Closed End Funds investing in munis vs. munis mutual funds - they should track closely, yet closed end funds under-preformed because they incur capital losses (for example, VNJTX vs. NXJ).
    Dec 24 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Trouble Brewing Quickly [View article]
    Very good article Paulo. I live in downtown Manhattan and just started using Uber. It's a bit more expensive but it arrives fast, has nice cars, and you don't need to tip. All in all, I can see 50% of my rides going to Uber.

    I am not a lawyer but I doubt the city can just shut Uber down (you can't just shut business down because you don't like it last I checked). Fundamentally, Uber is the same service as calling a livery car which has been perfectly legal for decades.

    If you invest in TAXI, you eat like a chicken, but you will crap like an elephant when more people discover Uber,
    Dec 22 11:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Will Stay Flat But You Can Win By Buying Losers (Part 1) [View article]
    I am well familiar with Dogs of the Dow. The reason it works is that people underestimate mean-reversion. A lot of stock outperformance is due to random factors or just dumb luck. For example, if you a 3D printing company, you probably have done great this year, no matter how bad your company performed. Eventually, everything mean reverts over a longer term.
    Dec 22 10:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Will Stay Flat But You Can Win By Buying Losers (Part 1) [View article]
    I agree that I don't know the exact reasons for selling losers and keeping winners. I wold need to run a pretty complex backtest to verify it's due to tax-loss selling. By the mere fact, that the company are sold or bough on temporary technical reasons imply that the trade is more likely to reverse with everything else being equal.

    Look at IBM vs. HPQ in 2012 and 2013 for more anecdotal evidence.
    Dec 22 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Will Stay Flat But You Can Win By Buying Losers (Part 1) [View article]
    Long Tail, thanks for commenting. I think I dedicated to this the second half of my article. While a true "scientific methodology" is difficult, I believe my "pair-trade" portfolio accomplished "significant evidence" level .
    Dec 22 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Scorecard And Top Five Ideas For Next Year (Part 2) [View article]
    Yair, I agree with some concern about Baylon-like problems. But Perion just renewed Google agreement and so did Conduit. So nothing is likely to happen for a couple of years.
    Dec 22 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Will Stay Flat But You Can Win By Buying Losers (Part 1) [View article]
    Yair, bonds are just part of the picture. There are much better markets to invest than US - they will eventually get the money. By the way, I don't see why bond yields support P/E of 22 if 10 year were to go up to 3.5% as predicted by "Wall Street sages". Check Damodaran's paper linked in the article for equity risk premium.
    Dec 22 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Will Stay Flat But You Can Win By Buying Losers (Part 1) [View article]
    I differ from the Barrons panel that I don't have to do a sales job for an asset management division. Imagine if you are BlackRock in business of selling mostly equity mutual funds and ETFs and your chief strategist is prediction poor market performance. I can't recall one year where the panel did not paint an optimistic picture.
    Dec 22 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Will Stay Flat But You Can Win By Buying Losers (Part 1) [View article]
    Insider,

    Thanks for a very good job articulating my point!
    Dec 22 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
390 Comments
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