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  • Market Will Stay Flat But You Can Win By Buying Losers (Part 1) [View article]
    I agree that I don't know the exact reasons for selling losers and keeping winners. I wold need to run a pretty complex backtest to verify it's due to tax-loss selling. By the mere fact, that the company are sold or bough on temporary technical reasons imply that the trade is more likely to reverse with everything else being equal.

    Look at IBM vs. HPQ in 2012 and 2013 for more anecdotal evidence.
    Dec 22 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Will Stay Flat But You Can Win By Buying Losers (Part 1) [View article]
    Long Tail, thanks for commenting. I think I dedicated to this the second half of my article. While a true "scientific methodology" is difficult, I believe my "pair-trade" portfolio accomplished "significant evidence" level .
    Dec 22 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Scorecard And Top Five Ideas For Next Year (Part 2) [View article]
    Yair, I agree with some concern about Baylon-like problems. But Perion just renewed Google agreement and so did Conduit. So nothing is likely to happen for a couple of years.
    Dec 22 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Will Stay Flat But You Can Win By Buying Losers (Part 1) [View article]
    Yair, bonds are just part of the picture. There are much better markets to invest than US - they will eventually get the money. By the way, I don't see why bond yields support P/E of 22 if 10 year were to go up to 3.5% as predicted by "Wall Street sages". Check Damodaran's paper linked in the article for equity risk premium.
    Dec 22 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Will Stay Flat But You Can Win By Buying Losers (Part 1) [View article]
    I differ from the Barrons panel that I don't have to do a sales job for an asset management division. Imagine if you are BlackRock in business of selling mostly equity mutual funds and ETFs and your chief strategist is prediction poor market performance. I can't recall one year where the panel did not paint an optimistic picture.
    Dec 22 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Will Stay Flat But You Can Win By Buying Losers (Part 1) [View article]
    Insider,

    Thanks for a very good job articulating my point!
    Dec 22 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Will Stay Flat But You Can Win By Buying Losers (Part 1) [View article]
    Thanks for commenting but $112 or $120 is S&P 500 after tax earnings, and, at least in theory, include all write-offs and impairments. This is what's used to derive a forward P/E ratio. I only use Yardeni analysis to show that the margin are 8% above its long-term average. I think it's fair to say if they come down 2%, the earnings will also come down (approximately) 2%. And "one-offs" in this 18% margin critically matter - that's what makes earning look much better now than they really are! (think of NOLs from prior year which will eventually disappear). I don't use Yardeni margin as an absolute value in my calculation.
    Dec 22 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why India And Russia Will Outperform Next Year [View article]
    здесь: http://bit.ly/1bRr4Uk
    Dec 19 12:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why India And Russia Will Outperform Next Year [View article]
    Putin was running things in early 2000's. The market performed well. I am far from a Putin cheerleader but there is no such thing as a "bad asset", just a bad price. The price is too good to pass up with or without Putin.
    Dec 19 12:09 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why India And Russia Will Outperform Next Year [View article]
    Thanks for commenting. I specifically investigated in this artcile small cap ETFs where investing in a country is roughly the same as investing in these companies.

    What you said does hold true for large caps in both Russia and especially India. Large companies like Infosys or Tata are much more dependent on world economy and the divergence could be quite wide. They also get only limited benefit from cheaper currency as much of their workforce may not even be in the home country.

    For example, compare large cap Indian ETF such as INDA with SCIF. INDA has an almost 30 P/E and trades at over 5 times book value while the small cap is incredibly cheap.

    So think small cap ETFs only when investing in a country.
    Dec 18 12:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why India And Russia Will Outperform Next Year [View article]
    Economist had a pretty extensive coverage of upcoming election. It expects BJP with Modi to win and considers him an economic reformer. I think the election is the positive for the economy.

    I agree that buying individual small Indian companies is tough (no ADRs). Especially, if you don't have a very good prime broker and feet on the ground. Therefore, I recommend an ETF to minimize an effect of a few bad apples.
    Dec 18 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why India And Russia Will Outperform Next Year [View article]
    Thank Jake. I agree that commodities played a significant role in the the Russian recovery. However, the statistics in referenced paper show post-crisis positive trade balance ex-oil and gas. In case of Argentina, commodities weren't the major driver at all.
    Dec 18 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why India And Russia Will Outperform Next Year [View article]
    Thanks Michael. The real buying may start in January when investors sell off big winners and start re-balancing.
    Dec 17 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why India And Russia Will Outperform Next Year [View article]
    Thanks Michael. The real buying may start in January when investors well off big winners and start re-balancing.
    Dec 17 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Hungary, Buy Magyar Telekom! [View article]
    Thanks for reading. Magyar has already been "stiffed" with a special telecom tax. I am betting that the worst is over as Hungarian economy is recovering and the country will want to be seen as :"business-friendly". Also, consider that any further tax increases, etc. will be passed to the customers one way or another angering the population.

    Ironically, CEL has been a very good performer thus year vs. other Israeli stocks.
    Dec 17 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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