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  • The Most Overvalued S&P 500 Stock Is...? [View article]
    I would say CRM is more overpriced than AMZN. If you look at CRM real GAAP numbers, not the non-GAAP fantasy they present to investors.
    May 15 12:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crisis In Ukraine: What Now For U.S. Stocks? [View article]
    Yep. It's valuation, stupid. Just look at Yelp, Amazon, and Pandora - hardly a Ukrainian link...
    Apr 25 11:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dumb Investment Of The Week: Getting Involved In Herbalife - The Ultimate Wall Street Donnybrook [View article]
    Excellent article. Herbalife as an investment is just a coin flip. It's a distasteful business for sure which parts poor uneducated people with their money but hard to tell if it's illegal.

    As far as Icahn and Ackman are concerned it's all about their inflated egos at this point and nothing about making money for their investors...
    Apr 21 05:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'New' Perion - What Does The Future Hold For It? [View article]
    "Recently, the full year results have shown that the revenue was indeed $104.6 million, but with a hook: $17.5 million of the revenue came from CC! "

    The ClientConnect acquisition closed in January 2014. Where did you get $17.5 million from ClientConnect contribution in 2013? This cannot be right....

    I agree that Perion future is uncertain, but not necessarily in a bad way: for all downside, which is already reflected in a large discount to its intrinsic value, there is a tremendous upside if things go right.

    The most important factor to consider is that people don't want to pay for software, even a trivial amount. This will probably never change. Very much like TV advertisement will never go away even if all TV goes on streaming media, there will always be room for someone to provide a platform to monetize your software regardless whether its' PC, mobile, beamed in your retina, or sent as a brain wave.

    I cannot guarantee that it will be Perion who will benefit (although their chances are good), but the opportunity will only grow with time. This is not a declining business at all.
    Apr 17 12:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Highway Holdings Limited Move To Myanmar Should Add 50% To Its Value [View article]
    Thank you. I just started looking at other small companies moving to Burma. Their government seems quite focused on promoting manufacturing.
    Apr 2 11:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  •, Inc. misses by $0.18, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Just think for a second how bad the results would have been if the weather was better. The story was until now that consumers stayed home and bought online.
    Jan 30 04:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Way To Look At It [View article]
    Paulo, if you theory is correct, Amazon should provide OK revenue but lousy Q/Q revenue growth guidance as its prior Q comps revenues also increased. Any thoughts?
    Jan 15 05:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Not Just Gold That's Troubling EZCORP [View article]
    Stephen, thank you for referencing my article. I agree that FCFS is a much better run business than EZPW. Many of EZCorp problems have been of its own making (online loan defaults, over-expansion of jewelry focused stores, taking eye off A&B problems). However, you must admit there is nothing magical about FCFS model - it can be easily replicated by its competitors and EZPW is also rapidly expanding in Mexico.

    I remember 2011 when EZPW was trading at $37 a share and every analyst was marveling at its great business model. Little really changed since then, except the price of gold and run of good luck turn into run of bad luck (their management has never been their strong suit).

    FCFS is likely a good company but a lousy investment. It doesn't have any durable competitive advantage, just good momentum (very much like EZPW in 2011). I have very hard time seeing why you would pay P/E of 17-20 for FCFS but would ignore much cheaper EZPW and CSH. They are all in the same business and will always end up copying each other best ideas.
    Dec 9 03:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The big move in bonds may be over [View news story]
    "BAML survey has 97% believing yields will be higher a year from now."

    The most important investing rule: When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.
    Aug 20 07:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The New Wal-Mart? [View article]
    Paulo, thanks for a very good article. While the facts are well-known to anyone who did any DD on Amazon, it's nice to be reminded why "Amazon is the New Wal-Mart" story line is false.

    There's one critical difference between Amazon and Wal-Mart not pointed out in your article. Amazon service is readily available to anyone in US today. There is not a person with Internet access who hasn't heard of Amazon. On the other hand, Wal-Mart had to move to a nearby physical location near a consumer to get his services. Even today, if you live in NYC, there is no Wal-Mart to go to. If Wal-Mart thought like Amazon, it would probably build a store at Time Square :)

    This is why you see Wal-Mart revenue growth rate accelerating in 1990-1993 and Amazon decelerating now. Wal-Mart cash flow was reinvested to open more locations and acquire more customers, so the growth was mildly exponential due to compounding of re-invested capital with good return. Amazon can't simply acquire significantly more customers in the US, it can only try to sell them more services. With Amazon international expansion floundering and all low-hanging fruits have been picked, Amazon is getting into more and more marginal businesses (grocery delivery?!) in US in order to keep the revenue growth.
    Jul 14 01:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Bills On Sale For 15 Cents: Ram Power Corp. [View article]
    At first glance, this does look very cheap indeed and it's nice to see that Deloitte was an auditor. I also appreciate very thorough analysis. You clearly spent a lot of time on this.

    However, some further due diligence is in order: is this equity investable (i.e. has enough volume), do insiders still have a significant equity stake, does the new management look reasonable? Did you have a chance to talk with their new management?

    What are your thoughts?
    Jul 8 11:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rick's Cabaret Is A Cheap 'Sin' Stock Worth More Than Double [View article]

    I have met their management. Seemed like reasonable people to me. I don't see anything in their financials that would raise red flags, especially related party transaction which are common for micro-caps.

    If you read Yelp/Zagat reviews they seemed to go out of the way to keep their business "clean" with the confines of the nature of the business.
    Jul 2 12:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (AMZN): Q1 EPS of $0.18 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $16.07B (+22% Y/Y) misses by $90M. Expects Q2 revenue of $14.5B-$16.2B vs. $15.9B consensus. Expects Q2 operating income of -$340M to +$10M; EPS consensus is at $0.22. Shares +1.4% AH. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR[View news story]
    Old story. The revenue and guidance missed, the stock is up. I don't read much in "earnings beat" (let's see how they arrive at it), the guidance is now for a loss in Q2 vs. expected profit (-$0.36 vs. $0.22 a share!), which means further revisions down in yearly EPS. They may end losing money again in 2013.

    Shouldn't they just declare bankruptcy so the stock can skyrocket to $1,000 a share?
    Apr 25 04:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Australian Cyclical Stocks Cheap Now? [View article]
    Why would you think that Australian banks are "cheap"? As a matter of fact they are the highest priced on P/E (around 15), Book Value (near 2), Tangible Book Value (over 2) and any other reasonable measure compared to banks anywhere else in the world. Look at their loan/deposit ratios - they are all above 100%. They don't have enough deposits to cover their loans and have to borrow wholesale,.

    The only metrics you look is a dividend payout. The banks foolishly payout almost all their earning as dividends while issuing bonds to borrow money to pay for it. By the same dividend metric, Citi, WaMu, and GM were "cheap" in 2007 (they all paid high dividends while borrowing money).

    Take a look at Australian real estate prices. Australia and China the only remaining countries where the real estate prices didn't really adjust post 2007 real estate bubble. What do you think will happen to the banks when the s* hit the fan?
    Mar 1 01:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is there a double-inverse ETF I can buy on Goldman best ideas list?

    Just look at their last list (if you followed, you'd be one of few people to lose money in 2012):
    Jan 8 07:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment