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  • Versar Is A Victim Of Ebola Bubble [View article]
    Because the unit production capacity is tiny. It's nice of them to change the graphics and put Ebola imagery all over the place, but several days ago infectious diseases were not even mentioned on the Web site.
    Oct 15, 2014. 02:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Expect A Rate Reduction From The Reserve Bank Of Australia [View article]
    I am afraid you have it backwards: the strong dollar is the result of high interest rates. If RBA lowers the rates, the AUD will go lower due to carry trade unwind.
    Aug 8, 2014. 09:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perion Networks - A Sinking Ship, An Immediate Short Opportunity With A 40% Downside [View article]
    The quality of this article is more suitable for Yahoo message board posting than "pro" section for SeekingAlpha.

    The article ignores the most basic facts about the company, readily available in its quarterly releases and filed financial statements.

    First of all, Perion has 51 million in cash and equivalents at the end of Q1 on its balance sheet, exceeding any outstanding loans. It's often cheaper to take a loan to finance the merger or dividend than use B/S cash. If you don't believe me, look at AAPL or MSFT balance sheets: they have plenty of cash, yet issue debt for tax reasons. Perion paid out all excess cash to Conduit shareholders at the closing, hence the need for a loan.

    Perion earned $27 million (or $108 on annualized basis) in Q1 and guided for earnings of $103 to $108 million this year, implying forward P/E of less than 7 at the current price. You ether predict that their earning will collapse this year (near impossible as Bing deal is not up for renewal until the very end of the year) or simply made an egregious math error. If we are to believe your calculation, Perion will earn only $38 million this year, or LESS THAN HALF in three remaining quarters COMBINED than it earned in Q1. Your quote is below:

    "Our conservative $6.8 price target is based on a conservative P/E multiple of 12X which we apply to our calculations, based on our FY2014 revenue forecast of barely ~$405.0M. "

    Would you care to provide at least some detail how you arrived at the earnings part? Why do you think the margins will tank when they just expended?

    I agree that long term Perion business model bears significant risk as it lives at Bing/Google mercy (Yahoo is less and less relevant today) and Mobile is a long-term threat where it doesn't have proven products yet. Yet getting bigger puts them in a better negotiating position so it was the right move.

    I congratulate you on eking out a 1.5% shorts profit from a headline, but this article mostly fact-free and has little research value.
    Jun 17, 2014. 12:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willi-Food International Should Be Taken Private For A Potential 100% Gain [View article]
    Joey, yes, nothing is ever that simple and there's risk. Yet, to get the company go private, there is no easy way around buying out minority shareholders to delist from NASDAQ.

    This reminds me of an old joke: two (University of Chicago) economists walk on the street and one notices a $100 dollar bill lying on the ground. One says: Look, $100 bill! The other says: Nah, I won't bother picking it up. If it was real, someone would have already taken it.

    WILC is that $100 bill. There is a decent chance it's real, if it's not, you won't lose too much as it's already very cheap.
    Mar 22, 2014. 12:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ukraine Crisis Escalation - Winners, Losers And How To Profit [View article]

    I am not sure if this was an intentional pun. It's URALkali (as in Ural mountains), not Ukrali. Ukrali means "stolen" in Russian.
    Mar 10, 2014. 08:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FitLife Is Very Cheap, But Probably Not For Long [View article]
    Thanks Kang Wei. I didn't know about a new line of products but the seem quite adept at marketing so I am optimistic.
    Feb 16, 2014. 10:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FitLife Is Very Cheap, But Probably Not For Long [View article]
    Thanks. It's tough to trade, especially because its OTC. I suggest you use GTC (good till cancel) limit orders after setting the price you think is right and patiently waiting. If they list on NASDAQ (their goal), the volume should improve.
    Feb 15, 2014. 12:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FitLife Is Very Cheap, But Probably Not For Long [View article]
    Thanks. Yes, if everything goes their way, it could easily get to $7-10.
    Feb 15, 2014. 12:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FitLife Is Very Cheap, But Probably Not For Long [View article]
    If it both gets a contract with GNC corp stores and expands internationally, I'd guess at least 3-4 times current revenue in 3-5 years. Discounted back, it should work out 200-250% stock appreciation today.
    Feb 14, 2014. 11:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Argentina's Problem Is Not Fed Tapering [View article]
    Scott, I usually agree with you but I think this article is off the mark. Yes, Argentina is poorly governed, but it's been poorly governed for years (since Peron perhaps?). Why is this crisis now, why does it coincide with crises in India, Turkey, Russia, Indonesia, Thailand? To me it's clear that Fed's QE caused the money to flow into higher yielding emerging market currencies, pushing the currencies up and the yields down, now at the end of the QE, the money is (foolishly) flowing back into US stock market, so the process reverses itself pushing the currencies down and the rates up. I don't think the Fed should delay the end of the QE, the emerging markets will eventually adjust to a more market dictated rates and currency exchange rates. They may even benefit in the long run via their cheaper currency.
    Jan 28, 2014. 11:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Versar: Buy This Boring Stock For Superior Return [View article]
    There were some recent buys, including CEO:

    Insiders hold around 11% of outstanding shares with 6% held by the founder.
    Jan 1, 2014. 11:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commtouch: An Obvious Acquisition Target [View article]
    Yes, I met with the management during Imperial Capital Conference two weeks ago. The CFO was new and the President was the former CEO.
    Dec 30, 2013. 04:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commtouch: An Obvious Acquisition Target [View article]
    I believe email encryption is well covered by open source software which is, of course, free:

    So this may be a tough sell.
    Dec 29, 2013. 10:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial Trouble Brewing Quickly [View article]
    Very good article Paulo. I live in downtown Manhattan and just started using Uber. It's a bit more expensive but it arrives fast, has nice cars, and you don't need to tip. All in all, I can see 50% of my rides going to Uber.

    I am not a lawyer but I doubt the city can just shut Uber down (you can't just shut business down because you don't like it last I checked). Fundamentally, Uber is the same service as calling a livery car which has been perfectly legal for decades.

    If you invest in TAXI, you eat like a chicken, but you will crap like an elephant when more people discover Uber,
    Dec 22, 2013. 11:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why India And Russia Will Outperform Next Year [View article]
    Thanks for commenting. I specifically investigated in this artcile small cap ETFs where investing in a country is roughly the same as investing in these companies.

    What you said does hold true for large caps in both Russia and especially India. Large companies like Infosys or Tata are much more dependent on world economy and the divergence could be quite wide. They also get only limited benefit from cheaper currency as much of their workforce may not even be in the home country.

    For example, compare large cap Indian ETF such as INDA with SCIF. INDA has an almost 30 P/E and trades at over 5 times book value while the small cap is incredibly cheap.

    So think small cap ETFs only when investing in a country.
    Dec 18, 2013. 12:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment