Larry Bellehumeur

Saudi Khurais Field: Looks Like Easy Oil May Be Gone from Arabia, Too

The other problem that they are seeing (sorry if someone else brought it up) is that they are now seeing issues with Water cuts (don't know the technical term). Basically, the level of water being pumped out is increasing.

Check out Matt Simmons book, "Twilight in the Desert". It makes for scary bedtime reading.

Visa: Not Everywhere I Want to Be

Take Visa and MC for more "secure" approaches with less downside risk, due to the fact that they are only "networks". Take AXP for long-term growth, as a play on the rebound in Consumer spending, which will happen at one time or another. As long as you have a 3-5 year time frame, you will make a lot of Cash on AXP.

Disclosure -- Long AXP, V

Natural Gas: Short Term Bear, Long Term Bull

Hello Blizzard....

Some of the Industrial Companies (such as in the production of Steel, or in the production of Steam for the Oil Sands) often have the ability to change the input fuel source that they use. I couldn't answer how fast they could change exactly, although it wouldn't be that long. It would require some slight overhaul.

The reality is that Nat Gas is still the preferred method for these types of programs long-term (as it has less Carbon Footprint), so there is a gradual change to this anyways..

Hope this helps....I write a lot of articles on Energy, so hope to see you on future postings....

Larry

Natural Gas: Short Term Bear, Long Term Bull

Think I need more coffee....my comment to Mad Hedge should read "I doubt that it IS sustainable for too long"

Natural Gas: Short Term Bear, Long Term Bull

As always, thanks to everyone for taking the time to read my article.

Mad Hedge -- I suspect that it may bottom out closer to $3.00 before we are done. Some renewed Economic optimism may help to raise it temporarily, but doubt that it sustainable for too long. I do like Devon Energy as well, mainly because they seem to be a very well run company. Disclosure - No position in DVN

Fitz -- As I mentioned, I am not sure if we will ever see a boom in Nat Gas usage for vehicles. Proponents of it include Boone Pickens, who has done some advising for Obama, but it would be too much to create the necessary infrastructure to match the ease of using Oil. A possible spin-off for Nat Gas would be if the move was towards Plug-in Hybrids took hold, as they would create a greater need for Electricity production. This would have some indirect effect on increasing Nat Gas use.

LongOil -- There are many people who are much smarter than I when it comes to Chemistry, so I will take your word for it. The reality is that it will be at least 2018-2020 for any power to be generated by Nuclear in the Oil Sands (and this is assuming that all of the Government regulations can be done quickly....no sure thing).

Cheers
Larry

Oil Above $50 and Still Has Legs - Cramer

Scares me a bit that people are starting to pump up oil too much, too soon. As much as I am a believer in the long-term bull case for Crude, you have to look at the large stockpiles that have to be widdled through. I do believe that Oil should rebound more in the 2nd half of 2009, as Stimulus project use a lot of Diesel (Generators, Machinery and Worker Trucks). As well, many that might have flown to a more expensive vacation will chose to drive in the US Summer Driving season.

Watch for Oil to fully recover (north of $100) sometime in 2010, when the BRIC countries resume their long-term middle class growth plan.

Larry

13 Safe Stocks in a Return to the 1970s

I like the article for the most part...Couple of points:

1) You could likely substitute Microsoft for Cisco in your Consumer play, as MSFT has much more of its overall revenue exposed to the Consumer than CSCO, who only has some through its Linksys brand. Much more of their revenue is through SMB, Corporate and Government.

2) Don't know if I would include PetroBras in the category of a Low Cost producer. I like the company, but most of its production needs $60 to $80 a barrel to be productive, as the cost of Off-shore rigs is still high. They also still have a lot of exploration costs....

3) Apple, Disney and Nike are all solid brands, and will bounce back violently to the upside when the consumer starts spending.

Larry

A Lesson from TIPS

TIPS are best owned in a Tax-exempt Retirement account, from what I have found......I have owned TIP for about a year. Factoring in its payments, I am up about 8-10%, which is not bad considering the total market is down 30% or more....

Larry

Coca-Cola Now at Attractive Buy Level

You're on the mark with this one....KO has great earnings visibility, the best Brand "moat" in the business world and a product that is likely as recession-proof as a "Consumer Discretionary" could ever be. I just wish that they would be a bit more aggressive on their guidance...

Disclosure - Long on KO, although it is not one of my top 10 holdings.

Water: The New Oil

PHO looks interesting, as it seems to cover many areas of the Water spectrum (iTron, its biggest holding, is a Water Metering company, while it has positions in Danaher for the Technology side, and Veolia for the Infrastructure side). Thanks for pointing it out....

Suncor: Ripe for a Takeover?

Thanks for reading, everyone, and for your comments.

I do agree that Exxon is not likely to take over SU, I probably should have made it more clear. My point was more to show how small Suncor is, when compared to Exxon, in that Exxon could buy it with "spare cash". I do think there are a lot of likely suitors in this space (notice the take-over news of Total, with regards to UTS).

I think I may take my own advice and go out and buy some SU!

Cheers
Larry

Four Oil Giants to Keep an Eye on - Barron's

Wonder if one of these big boys will take a shot at some of the cheaper Oil Sands plays now, such as Suncor or Canadian Oil Sands?

Apple Will Still Thrive Post-Steve

Thanks for your comments everyone...

Bob -- When I said that GE suffered for a while, I was more referring to their performance in the immediate period (say 2001 to 2004) following Welch's retirement. Immelt continued to grow the earnings at a nice rate, but due to a variety of factors (some related to GE, others to the market correction itself), the P/E ratio was never what it was when Welch was running it. In terms of the performance as of late, yeah, it has been a tough ride for GE shareholders, no doubt about that.

Whether or not you approve of Wal-Mart's business model is an opinion that you are entitled to have. The reality is that they are still selling the same stuff that many other stores sell, and have a unique way to sell it that appeals to many people. I believe that in his own way, Sam Walton was as a great of an innovator as the business world has seen, and the comparison to Jobs is accurate. Jobs excels at knowing what the market wants, which is exactly how Walton drove his business. I do agree that Jobs is unique in finding a way to make people buy premium products while feeling that they got full value....

Canadian Retailers in the U.S.: A Recipe for Disaster?

Interesting points, Teutronic. I had forgotten all about Canadian Tire's ventures. I didn't get into the Canadian Bank's forays into foreign markets in this article, as that is an entirely different type of business, although, not any less volatile and still quite full of pitfalls.

I am curious to see how Lululemon does in their US expansion, especially since they sell a high priced product that one may deem expendable, and are trying to expand rapidly during a recession. Ironically, they have hired an American, who once headed up Starbucks Retail Strategy, to lead their charge.

As for whether the banks should move forward with further US expansion, one of the main reasons for their success in Canada has been that there are many more restrictions placed on them when compared to the US, almost forcing them to further enhance their already conservative nature. With less restrictions (at least for now) in the US, it would worry me a bit if they decided to venture too far in. However, with the reasonable evaluations of many fine US-based institutions, and the decent value of the Canadian dollar, I expect some purchases to be done in 2009 by Canadian Banks..

Thanks for your comments...
Larry

Ten Stock Picks for 2009

Nice Article...

Imax may be a hidden gem, especially if the economy stays down (it is a relatively cheap form of entertainment, in a time of dwindling disposable income). The same would hold true for Activision.

The only one that scares me on your list is Corning, as I suspect that it has another 12-18 months of mediocre (if any) earnings growth, so 2009 may be too early to get back in.....

Transocean, Deere, Altria and JnJ are all great picks (ones that I own in various accounts).

Cheers
Larry