Larry Bellehumeur

13 Safe Stocks in a Return to the 1970s

I like the article for the most part...Couple of points:

1) You could likely substitute Microsoft for Cisco in your Consumer play, as MSFT has much more of its overall revenue exposed to the Consumer than CSCO, who only has some through its Linksys brand. Much more of their revenue is through SMB, Corporate and Government.

2) Don't know if I would include PetroBras in the category of a Low Cost producer. I like the company, but most of its production needs $60 to $80 a barrel to be productive, as the cost of Off-shore rigs is still high. They also still have a lot of exploration costs....

3) Apple, Disney and Nike are all solid brands, and will bounce back violently to the upside when the consumer starts spending.

Larry

Some Tech Sector Optimism

Hello all...

May be the first time that I haven't been called an "Idiot" in a long time in the responses....=)

138602 -- Buying Yahoo may be a good way to gain on this deal, if you're ok with the risk of a deal collapsing again. I'm not much for buying into a company in this scenario unless it is a company that I feel I would be comfortable in owning for the long term if the deal fell through. If this is the case with you and Yahoo, then I would say Go for it.

Roger -- Nothing with Google would surprise me anymore. I haven't heard the same rumour, but since they are doing some work in the Smart phone space, they could likely use some of that work towards a PC Based system. Even if they did, however, it might be tough to take on the MSFT machine. They released their own versions of Office, and this hasn't dented the earnings like I thought it might. Something to watch though, whenever Google sets you in their sights....

Jepittman -- I'd be a little hyprocritical to add Qualcomm now, as I wrote an article that attacked their business model in the past. However, with their new Gobi Chipset hitting the market (does GSM and CDMA), I may have been premature.... Time will tell on how much play they will have in the LTE market (if they can show half of the dominance as they showed in the CDMA space, which they invented, you may be dead-on).
Disclosure -- I am a Director at a company that indirectly buys products from Qualcomm. No position in the company.


IThinkBig -- My disclosure is listed at the end of the article. I am long (and painfully underwater) on Cisco, and Research in Motion (wasn't one of the picks, but was mentioned in the article). I have my buy order in for Intel @ $12.75 and for MSFT at $18.50 (might be too low, actually), so I have my money where my mouth is....

Cheers
Larry