Larry Bellehumeur

Peak Oil: Caused by Geology, Politics or Infrastructure Issues?

Alan -- an interesting, yet utterly frightening, read is Matthew Simmon's book, Twilight in the Desert. He brings up a good point.....when you factor in what the "proven reserves" were for the various Oil fields in Saudi back in the 70's, then subtract the known production since then, the number of 260 billion barrels of proven reserves is not possible. They have been producing at a rate of 3-5 billion barrels per year for 3 decades, yet their proven reserve actually went up.

There is no perfectly accurate way of knowing what the proven reserves are, and that is scary. Even if we could get past the Political motivations to overstate one's reserves (to allow for a higher quota), I agree that we don't have the expertise to know the exact number anyways.

thanks for reading!

Peak Oil: Caused by Geology, Politics or Infrastructure Issues?

I like your optimism, amdman, I think everyone who reads this article hope that you are correct. However, the world needs to find upwards of 15-25 million barrels per day, just to meet the expected drop off from producing wells. This is not a myth, wells do dry up and produce less over time. So, assuming that no extra demand is created, how long would any new discovery supply this, when this pace mean a billion barrels would last as little as 40 days?

Wood is renewable, and coal is much more abundant than Oil. Again, hope you are right, but you may be putting your head in the sand just a bit.....

Peak Oil: Caused by Geology, Politics or Infrastructure Issues?

Thanks to everyone for reading.....But, c'mon, I never consider an article to have been successful unless it raises enough controversy for me to be called "Idiot" or some other insult! =)

To answer the comments:

Dave - The crux of the article is that we may be entering Peak Oil for reasons that go beyond simple Geology. The Canadian Oil Sands (in theory) could sustain incredible production increases without causing any long term effect on production (unlike Conventional Wells that could have their long-term flow rates affected by over producing, the sand in the Athabasca Oil Sands is not pooled). So, you could (again, in theory, if money and environmental impact was not an issue) produce many times what they are doing now for many years (it is expected that the Oil Sands will be revised up to 300-400 Billion recoverable barrels before 2015, with newer technology). However, this will never happen, not because of Geology, but because of financial, Political and environmental concerns (which was point 2).

The same (to a lesser extent) would happen if Obama would open up ANWR and drilling on the coasts. The other problem is constructing the incredible pipeline and refinery upgrade that would be required to use this extra production. No one wants a pipeline/refinery in their "backyard", so aside from the Costs/resources/skilled labour restraints of building this new infrastructure....where would you put it?

I do agree with a comment above as to the fact that it doesn't matter WHY we are in peak oil, we just are. The point of the article was just to point out a few reasons why.....but I agree, it is more important to act than to ask WHY.

Ferdinand - I'm kind of surprised that more hasn't been brought up in the news as to how the world's oil supply could follow the peak of the US Oil supply, and how Hubbert was correct in predicting that once a field (or supply) yields about 50% of its total return, its production rate will inevitably decline.

Cycling - I hope that you are right, but I have my doubts. China is going to pass the US over the next few decades for Auto use, India is adding millions of new vehicles and North Americans keep on building new suburbs to create more urban sprawl. I think that we won't be able to change our habits in time.....again, I hope you are right, however.

Kool - Look at Boone Pickens. The smart "energy" companies are already following his lead of adding Green energy. The problem will be that those technologies may not be developed in time to help us ween ourselves off of Oil.

Mark Anthony - Valid points. The point of the article was to point out what Oil Companies have been saying for years....Peak Oil is being brought on prematurely by factors that go beyond simple Geology. You can have all of the latest technology, and all of the money in the world, but if the Canadian Government (as an example) puts a clamp on Oil Sands development, you can't increase production. I saw Rick George (CEO of Suncor) speak and he said (rough quote), "We would not be entering Peak Oil for a long time if Oil Companies had access to all of the world's reserves and less Government restrictions".

Bruce - Thanks for plugging your own page on my article. In response to your comment, you are correct. When you have to expend 1.2 barrels of oil to get one out of the ground, it doesn't make sense. The same can be said if the cost of Oil goes beyond the point where consumers can afford to use it.