Larry Bellehumeur

Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30

You're missing an important point.....if Oil were to drop that low, many of the projects that are going to fill in for the dropping capacity of fields like Cattarell and the North Sea come from sources that cost more to get the stuff out of the ground (like Off shore and Oil Sands). At that low of a price, these projects stop being financially feasible and will cease, dramatically reducing supply.

As for Oil being plentiful, you might be the only one with this opinion....

Stagflation and Peak Oil: How Related Are They? (Part II)

Skeedaddy -- Point well taken on ag stocks. I probably left them out since I was dumb enough to dump Potash after doubling my money at $120. Probably too painful for me to dig up!!

Stagflation and Peak Oil: How Related Are They? (Part II)

Forgot to add....

One risky, but with good upside, way to play Alternative Energy is Hanwei Energy (HE - Toronto). They have great exposure to both current fuel sources (material/piping used in Pipelines) and future sources (Wind Turbines and others). They also are a safe way to play Asia/Russia, as they do all of their work in those areas, but follow Canadian Accounting practices.

As a disclosure, this is about 12% of my portfolio now. Risky, but I think this one could be a 2-3 bagger in a couple of years from here.

Stagflation and Peak Oil: How Related Are They? (Part II)

Nova -- Not a dime, actually. Take a look at what has always done well in the past times when there was high inflation. Real Estate has always kept pace with inflation.....will it this time? Don't know, don't have a crystal ball, but it does make sense to own hard assets in the time of desperation. I don't think we will see Hyperinflation, as the Fed will prevent that......

GMiki -- Nothing wrong with small-caps. My personal preference is large-caps in downtimes. Look at how many small caps become extremely volatile. When it looks like we are going to start to come out of this, small caps will absolutely destroy large caps, no doubt. Until then, might be kind of risky, at least for me.

I'm not one to chase Alternative energy, but this is the way of the future. I think it may be better to play technologies that have a place today. I like Wind, Nuclear and Solar, but there aren't a lot of safer ways to play this. GE is about as safe as you get, and even they have gotten killed (although that is more to do with their Financial exposure).

Keep the comments coming! I have thick skin....=)

Stagflation and Peak Oil: How Related Are They? (Part II)

Great comments from everyone....

Fred -- You're absolutely correct. I mean PBR....

209003 / drooyich:
- There no absolute guarantees when it comes to how to invest...all you can do is to guess what might go up.
- In terms of some of the stocks that are mentioned, I know most of them well, and they undoubtedly will give you good leverage to the respective commodities. One of the issues is that no one really knows for sure which commodity will be in the most demand. If Nuclear really does take over, then Uranium Participation (U-Toronto) is a great play. Same goes for Coal, with Fording Coal.
- However, if the technology somehow moves us away from these commodities, they will get killed (unlikely, but stranger things have happened).
- For Uranium exposure, I like U.To to play the commodity, and Cameco (CCO-Toronto) to play the producer. No position in either.

Bearfund -- Dont disagree with you on your statement. I guess it is the only Government-protected way to play it, which is why I mentioned it....I'd love to get another way myself...

Cheers
Larry