Larry Doyle's  Instablog

The fact that the Obama administration is reticent to release data pertaining to completed mortgage modifications speaks volumes as to the lack of success of this initiative. With almost a third of American homeowners now ‘underwater’ on their mortgages, Obama and team are sticking to their game plan to modify mortgages. Details of Obama’s revised game plan can be accessed at MakingHomeAffordable.gov:

The U.S. Department of the Treasury and Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) today kick off a nationwide campaign to help borrowers who are currently in the trial phase of their modified mortgages under the Obama Administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) convert to permanent modifications. The modification program, which has helped over 650,000 borrowers, is part of the Administration’s broader commitment to stabilize housing markets and to provide relief to struggling homeowners and is a primary focus of financial stability efforts moving forward. Roughly 375,000 of the borrowers who have begun trial modifications since the start of the program are scheduled to convert to permanent modifications by the end of the year.

375,000? I will take the under on that. Why? As I highlighted on October 29th in my commentary “Mortgage Modifications: Statistically Insignificant”, up to that point a whopping 1,080 mortgages had been successfully and permanently modified. Policy makers believe 374,000 mortgages will be successfully and permanently modified in the last ten weeks of the year. Who’s zooming who? Would they like to place a wager on that? I’ll give odds.

Through the efforts being announced today, Treasury and HUD will implement new outreach tools and borrower resources to help convert as many trial modifications as possible to permanent ones.

Without spending excessive time detailing the administration’s efforts, the fact is very little has changed with their basic approach. They will attempt to facilitate the modification process by compelling mortgage servicers to perform.

Servicer Accountability. As part of the Administration’s ongoing efforts to hold servicers accountable for their commitment to the program and responsibility to borrowers, the following measures will be added:

– Top servicers will be required to submit a schedule demonstrating their plans to reach a decision on each loan for which they have documentation and to communicate either a modification agreement or denial letter to those borrowers. Treasury/Fannie Mae “account liaisons” are being assigned to these servicers and will follow up daily as necessary to monitor progress against the servicer’s plan. Daily progress will be aggregated by the end of each business day and reported to the Administration.

– Servicers failing to meet performance obligations under the Servicer Participation Agreement will be subject to consequences which could include monetary penalties and sanctions.

If in fact they do not perform or are delinquent in the process, the administration has agreed to publicly highlight their ineptitude. I read this as shaming them into performing. Does the administration truly think that approach will work? How do you shame the shameless? The banks that originate and service these mortgages are so far beyond being shamed that the mere thought of the administration considering this approach is comical.

Shaming banks at this juncture is the equivalent of stating, “the beatings will continue until morale improves.”  The problem is the banks are not receiving the beatings but au contraire, the banks are dispensing the beatings on both Washington and America.

Make no mistake, Wall Street still owns Washington. Socialized housing is akin to pissing into the wind. Where is this headed? Do not be surprised to see the Obama administration look to reignite efforts for mortgage cramdowns in which mortgage principal is reduced.

LD

What is fueling America’s populist rage?

Is it the unemployment situation? Is it the volatility in the markets? The weakening greenback? Perhaps the generally perceived level of incompetence amongst our political and corporate leaders? Is it a media that does not hold our public officials and corporate leaders accountable?

While I could write extensively – and I have – on each of these questions, I am firmly convinced the ever increasing levels of populist rage go much deeper than any of these questions. How deep? To the very core of this great nation. What is at the core of any individual, institution, or nation?

Honesty and integrity.

Americans are a strong people. America is a proud land. That said, I believe we have allowed a semblance of moral decay to increasingly infiltrate our very core and we are now paying the price for it. How is this growing moral decay exemplified?

I am not suggesting that those who might hold differing opinions than mine on specific questions addressing ethical and moral topics as being the root of our current problems. I would like to think I am not so narrow-minded or judgmental. I do believe, however, that the rage sweeping our country on both sides of the political aisle stems from the reality that Americans are increasingly convinced that our political representatives, government officials, financial leaders, and their selected constituents have not been honest with America.

This lack of integrity and its growing level of awareness enrages Americans. They are voicing their rage. Congress is starting to hear this rage and is redirecting the anger and frustration toward leaders in Washington, state capitols, and Wall Street. We are now seeing this reality each and every day. America knows a lack of integrity when it sees it or feels it, despite the fact that large swaths of our media (exceptions include Susan Antilla and Jonathan Weil of Bloomberg, to name a few) provide the establishment cover.

Where have we seen a lack of integrity and honesty?

1. Select government reports to the contrary, the massive failings within the financial regulatory structure with specific emphasis on FINRA and the SEC.

2. Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein’s confession just this week that Goldman had engaged in activities that were clearly wrong and led to the economic crisis.

3. I have no doubt that many within our nation believe the Obama administration fundamentally believes in the principle of redistributing wealth via a number of programs. This emphasis on redistribution in one direction while simultaneously bailing out financial institutions leaves a very large percentage of those in the middle and on both sides of the aisle feeling totally disenfranchised. Not only do these people feel disenfranchised, but they feel that the government is not being honest with them regarding its motivations.

Will this situation turn around quickly? No. We did not get here just in the last year. While America is enraged currently, ultimately America itself needs to be held accountable for allowing this lack of integrity and honesty to promulgate over the years.

The cauldron is boiling. Washington and Wall Street feel it. I would expect we will witness more and more statements and acts from our leaders on Wall Street and in Washington to appease the electorate and assuage the rage.

Washington and Wall Street can keep their acts and statements.

Stop lying to America. Only then might we be able to make real progress.

LD

No news is good news, right?

Well, that may work in raising teenagers but when it comes to public policy in general and housing policy specifically the American public deserves to know what is going on. Why? American taxpayers are picking up the tab, that’s why.

Regrettably, our wizards in Washington are often reluctant to provide the transparency the American public deserves.

I witness this dynamic again today in reviewing a story on the mortgage modification program. The Wall Street Journal puts a positive spin on developments in the mortgage modification process by writing, Mortgage Program Gathers Steam After Slow Start:

The Obama administration said Tuesday that its mortgage-modification program has enrolled one in five eligible homeowners, a sign the effort is gathering momentum after a slow start. But so far few of those trial modifications are turning into permanent fixes.

The Making Home Affordable program has begun trial modifications for more than 650,000 borrowers since it was launched in February, according to data released Tuesday by the Treasury Department. That amounts to 20% of those eligible for the program. More than 217,000 trial modifications, or roughly one-third, were under way in just two states: California and Florida.

The program provides financial incentives to mortgage companies and investors to reduce loan payments to affordable levels. The Treasury Department said the program was on track to meet its goal of offering help to between 3 million and 4 million borrowers over the next several years. Those who are 60 days or more delinquent on their mortgages or at risk of imminent default are eligible.

Whether the program will ultimately be judged a success will depend upon how many trial modifications become permanent. To receive a permanent fix, borrowers must be current on their payments in the trial program after three months and submit a hardship affidavit and other documents.

The administration won’t release figures on completed modifications until December…

Won’t release figures on completed modifications until December? Why not? What’s up with that?

Where can one turn to find this information? You’ve come to the right place. I addressed this very point on October 29th in writing “Mortgage Modifications: Statistically Insignificant.” In that commentary, I highlighted the following:

• 1,080 borrowers had successfully completed the trial period and received HAMP modifications.

Yep. A whopping 1,080 borrowers have successfully completed the trial period and received modifications. A full .5% of those modifications that had started. Yes, a full 1,080 homeowners.

What was the source of that information? A Review of the TARP produced in October by the General Accounting Office. Check page 93 in the report. It’s right there. A full 1,080 mortgages.

Won’t release information? Come on. You don’t think The Wall Street Journal has access to that information?

When our political leaders are not held to account, American interests are not served.

The American public deserves so much better.

LD