Investors are bombarded by opinions, predictions, and advice from all sorts of "talking heads," "pundits," and "experts." Investors must then go through a filtering process to determine which voices are worthy of attention and which should be routinely dismissed. I have my own favorites that I think trustworthy, and some time I will share my whole list.

One voice that I heed whenever he speaks is Art Cashin of UBS, director of floor operations at the NYSE. Art has been in this business a long time, approaching 40 years, and I see him as an unbiased observer who can be trusted. That doesn't mean Art is always right, but I think he gives sound advice and is an independent voice.

Bill Gross, bond king at PIMCO, has published his July investment outlook. It is somber reading for equity investors.

Gross opines that consumers are going through a generational change in spending and saving habits. If that is so, he is in effect writing off the Boomer Generation, some 70 million consumers, as much less of a factor in the U.S. economy. This has resulted due to the loss of trillions of dollars of personal wealth over the past two years. Gross states that greed will return, but it will not come from the present generation.

Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO and author of When Markets Collide, has offered his secular outlook for the next 3-5 years. El-Erian, who gave us the term "new normal," gives his views of what that new stratus will be and how to invest in it.

El-Erian says we are entering the "new normal," and we will be in it for several years to come. Some of the characteristics of this new era are slower growth worldwide (more so in the G-3 than in emerging markets), higher unemployment, more deleveraging, more regulation, and a weaker U.S. dollar. He states that government interventions around the world may avoid a depression, but the actions will not be successful in returning economies to the high growth and low inflation of the past few years.

Earlier this year the book The Great Depression Ahead by Harry S. Dent was published. Dent is one economist who has been willing to stick his neck out (and his reputation) and has been very specific on what he sees in our current economic situation and what he thinks will happen. He offers free e-mail updates for purchasers of the book, and I just received that update Thursday. This review of his views is offered as just that; give them what credence you will. I do respect Dent's opinions and feel they they should be considered. It is unfortunate that some will dismiss his views as extreme because he does think we are headed for a depression, and that is an idea that many just cannot accept. Time will tell if it is true.

In his Update #2, Dent says we are in the bear market rally which he predicts in the book. He thinks there may be a setback to the rally in late May, and then the rally pushes on to perhaps late July or August, reaching a high of about Dow 10,100. Dent says he would be entirely out of stocks by late July or August at the latest.

My family and I were away from home for Thanksgiving, and upon returning home and going through the mail, I found two form letters from different credit card issuers with whom I have accounts. Both letters were notification of a change in terms. Bottom line, both were announcing rate increases on balances carried on the accounts.

Now I know Citi (C) is hard up, but they are doubling their rate from my previous 7.2% to 14.99%. I have the option to keep my current rate of interest until my current card expires. By expiration the account balance is to be paid off, and the account will be closed at that time. I have already advised them that that is my intention. The balance is a very small percentage of the credit limit, and I have never been late, etc. This is just a wholesale change that Citi is making to cover for credit card losses on other accounts, reduce their credit liability, and simply make more money. I really feel for people who have large balances, get this notice, and have no way to pay off the balance and avoid the much higher rate.

It is important to know what you don't know. That may sound like doublespeak, but it absolutely makes sense in this current investment climate. What you don't know can hurt you, and what you THINK you know can as well. I humbly (and believe me, this market has humbled me) offer some of the things we must keep in mind that we do not now know. Then we can act accordingly.

1) We don't know if we are in a recession or a depression. You will hear every possible opinion on this, but the fact is we don't now know. We have reached recession levels, and it is yet to be seen if it deepens further and lengthens.

GE (GE) has been disappointing investors for many, many quarters (some would say years). After usually making earnings but never surprising to the upside, last quarter GE stubbed its corporate toe with a bad miss in earnings (see conference call transcript), and the shares have tumbled 25% since. GE is set to report again this Friday, and the stock is showing some surprising life today, up over a dollar late in the day.

Someone seems to think GE just might beat estimates of 54 cents when the report is released this week. GE has made it clear that some of its units are for sale. It is possible that a sale could be announced on Friday, or perhaps a dividend increase could be announced.

"It was the best of times; it was the worst of times." Charles Dickens was obviously talking about today's investing climate. In my over 30 years of investing and watching the markets, I have never seen such diverging opinions about the values of stocks and bonds and the direction of the economy--U.S. and global. In the course of a few hours on CNBC (an expenditure of time that I do not recommend, if you are to be a successful investor), one can hear a pundit extol the virtues of a group of sectors and proclaim "this is where you should be putting your money." The very next guest may trash those sectors as dead money and then present another list of sectors and proclaim "these are the sectors that will do the best in this economy." Another may claim that U.S. stocks are the place to concentrate, while another "expert" says put most of your money outside the U.S. It can be very confusing if you listen to all the "noise," and that is the point: you have to block out the noise and stick with your asset allocation.

I think that includes some fixed income as well as equities, and I am writing to suggest that in a diversified portfolio, one should consider debt from emerging economies for a portion of one's bond holdings. There is certainly a difference of opinion about emerging markets as well, but I would humbly submit that if you consider emerging markets' equities, you certainly should consider emerging markets' debt. I would suggest that from 5-8% of the fixed income allocation of one's portfolio should be in emerging markets' debt to gain geographic, economic, and currency diversification.