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Larry House

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  • A Real Black Swan [View article]
    While we do have considerable reserves of fossil fuels in North America, we do not bring enough of those out of the ground to meet our needs on a protracted daily basis. We ARE dependent on foreign sources to meet our needs. Could we use more of our own? No doubt. Who knows what old promises are being paid off by our buying oil from the Mideast..
    Sep 2 11:20 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Stealth Bull Market in Equities Continues [View article]
    Do you think an adjustment of US growth down to just 1.6% is just what we are being fed by the media? You are free to believe whatever you want; you are even free to write about it, but don't take offense if I don't give you any greater credibility than the media you don't trust.
    Aug 31 09:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Volatility: Expect More Business Cycles Than Normal [View article]
    Different how? Come on--tell us.
    Aug 31 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On Dividends and Portfolio Building [View article]
    "Thought exercises" are of very limited value. At least give us some conviction. I can tell an investor all he or she needs to know--do something or don't do anything. Right now that is the hardest decision to make.
    Aug 30 04:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In This Market, What Would Ben Graham Do? [View article]
    Ben stressed "wait for the fat pitch." He stressed patience in an uncertain market. I think he would say wait today. He would not be rushing into any positions until he was absolutely sure the odds were in his favor.
    Aug 30 10:51 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should We Listen to El-Erian? [View article]
    In my humble opinion, El-Erian has presented the clearest and most accurate description of what we are going through. His 2007 book When Markets Collide is the most coherent insight avalable of what is happening, and it contains actionable investment advice. For disclosure, I have an investment in PGMDX, the PIMCO Global Multi-Asset Fund which El-Erian helps manage. What is good for PIMCO is good for the rest of us. Many advise investing in front of the Fed, and I would contend that investing with PIMCO advice is about as good as any such advice can be. I listen to about every voice out there, but I pay special attention when El-Erian and Bill Gross speak. They are proving to be right. However, I don't like Gross's advice for the government to guarantee mortgages. We need less gov not more if we hope to heal. That disagreement with him, however, does not mean that his outlook on the economy and investing is flawed.
    Aug 29 08:55 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Deleveraging Lie [View article]
    The strongest unit of power in this country is an individual. The times require individual responsibility and planning. The strong survive; lemmings die.
    Aug 27 04:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Still Stinks [View article]
    You've come a long way, Roger. It took forever for you to embrace the idea that this down turn was more than just a simple little recession, but you finally did come to that conclusion. Then, naturally, you espoused safety--rightly so, now, given the dire growth prospects in the U.S., you are looking for other countries to invest in. I have no problem with that, but a slow-growth U.S. will exert a strong dampening influence on the rest of the world. There is no great place to hide while all of this is playing out around the world. Patience and lowered expectations are a must as well.
    Aug 25 12:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Our 'Lost Decade' May Only Last 5 Years [View article]
    We have already lost a decade in the S&P. Predictions are so hard to make, especially about the future! Seriously, there is no way any one can zero in on when we may get through this because we have never been in this before! We are in uncharted waters with too many vocal captains.
    Aug 25 12:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Robert Reich, Carts and Horses [View article]
    I find it demeaning that I am viewed by my government not as a citizen with rights but rather I am a "consumer" that is supposed to be conditioned to spend all I have and more constantly to keep this grand illusion going. The government is hell-bent on maintaining the excess spending, to the ruination of us all. Get your financial house in order as soon as you can, and keep it that way. It is possible to escape the madness all around us.
    Aug 24 11:33 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lies, Damned Lies, And Equity Mutual Fund Statistics [View article]
    There are many more urgent uses for money than investing at the moment. Consumers are reducing debt, and that certainly pays better than stock returns. One's house is no longer a ready source of funds, so the investments are the next source. The stock market has to adjust to the fact that money piled into mutual funds and other investments partly as a result of the ready cash sources that investors had. As those sources are disappearing, it is reasonable to expect a contraction of the the money supply for stocks. A lot of priorities are changing rapidly, and investments end up being rather low on the list when one is faced with more urgent needs for liquidity.
    Aug 24 11:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullion as an Alternative to Shorting [View article]
    I agree with you, and I also endorse all of this for silver bullion as well.
    Aug 20 11:47 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Growth Environment - A Multi-Year Investment Blueprint [View article]
    All of that to just say the only way to make money in this market is to become a good trader!
    Aug 20 09:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zulauf: Systemic Change Is Coming [View article]
    Much food for thought here, but one of the things that struck me about the retiring hedge fund owner is this is a tough market for him, what does that make it for the average investor? No wonder more people are running to bonds and gladly accept low yields with complete safety (except for interest rate risk).
    Aug 19 09:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We're Rolling Over Even With the Fed Openly Juicing the Markets? [View article]
    Thanks for pulling back the curtain some more and allowing us to see this Heart of Darkness. Little wonder average investors have run screaming from the market and won't return anytime soon. Between our government and Big Boy programmed trading, the Little Guy doesn't stand a chance.
    Aug 19 11:52 AM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment