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Larry House  

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  • Six Ways to Protect Your Assets From Impending Deflation [View article]
    Equal cases can be argued for deflation, eventual inflation, and possible hyper-inflation. Really hard to be ready for all of those at the same time. Junk bonds make sense now as they are a little less risky than stocks and yield probably as much or more than equities can be expected to return for perhaps years. I just can't buy long-term treasuries because of the fear of inflation. There is difference of opinion as to what happens to gold in deflation. Some contend it would hold up pretty well. I think you have to hold precious metals regardless of the specific outlook. Times are just too uncertain to not have some gold/silver.
    Aug 6, 2010. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One ETF: A Deep-Discounted CEF With Cash and Insider Backing [View article]
    With an expense ratio of over 2%, BIF holds no attraction. A good value mutual fund with decent management and a low expense ratio would be a better choice as a single holding.
    Aug 6, 2010. 09:59 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing Strategies for the Next 'Lost Decade' [View article]
    There are pros and cons to any approach, and everyone wants to buy at just the right moment and sell at the right moment. Good luck. I prefer a fund approach and hold PGMDX as my core position. This is a Global Multi-Asset fund managed by El-Erian that can go anywhere and hold just about anything. I think that is a good core for a long-term portfolio. Also, I trust his insights and timing more than my own.
    Jul 2, 2010. 10:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worthy Investments During Deflationary Collapse [View article]
    You know, I agree with you, but the recent weakness in stocks and the more cautious tone has lessened some of the collapse threat, I think. The key take away for me is that the market just does not hold much potential. It is hard to see any big motivators for stocks. I think they will muddle along and do little to nothing, but I think a collapse is unlikely.
    Feb 10, 2010. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Fooled if a Greece Bailout Emerges, It Solves Nothing [View article]
    You are absolutely right. Last time I looked, Greece wasn't the only country with a debt problem. This deleveraging on ALL levels is just getting started.
    Feb 10, 2010. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Think Bernanke Just Indicated a Tightening [View article]
    Your title is correct, but your conclusion isn't, Larry. Ben is going to tighten; the only question is when. I do not think he was signalling that it will be soon. I think he wants to give many months of warning about this. I don't expect it this year, but yes, he is going to tighten--sometime.
    Feb 10, 2010. 02:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Cautiously Pessimistic [View article]
    Very opaque period right now. Not a time to be driving at top speed and just assume one will be fine.
    Feb 8, 2010. 11:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Continues Its Bullish Consolidation [View article]
    I am long precious metal stocks. They sure are consolidating fast today!!
    Feb 4, 2010. 01:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Breaking News: Occasionally Stocks Go Down [View article]
    You are right, Roger. One makes a decision to be in stocks or not to be in stocks. I am neither buying nor selling today. Today's action does not determine how the rest of the year or years will be. This is a time to look carefully at diversification and allocation. Today may cause headaches for a trader, but it is all part of the process for an investor.
    Feb 4, 2010. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Commodities to Hedge Inflation [View article]
    One sure thing about investing is there is rarely one sure thing. I totally agree with the comment that inflation is not now visible, but I don't think it wise to ignore it either. Real assets in general can be held as inflation hedges--real estate, TIPS, a basket of commodities (such as GCC), precious metals. I have an allocation to each of these. I don't think it makes sense to try to pick just ONE best inflation hedge.
    Feb 3, 2010. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the 'Inflation Bomb' [View article]
    Nothing new here: Inflation is beginning buy gold and short treasuries. See how simply that can be said?
    Feb 2, 2010. 11:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Double-Down Investing [View article]
    Of course we never learn; this is America! This once-great land has gone from the land of opportunity to the land of entitlement. Huge difference. We need to redefine ourselves and our expectations. Pensions must be redefined so that young workers can adjust accordingly. Investment managers must employ new strategies with more modest expectations. Leverage must become a four-letter word. This is going to be a painful adjustment, but it can be done and it must be done.
    Jan 29, 2010. 03:30 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Rogers, The World Is Not Short of Grain [View article]
    I follow Rogers' comments fairly closely, and the author has compressed Rogers' time frame to try to prove him wrong. All the comments of Rogers that I have seen have been couched in a very long-term view that is favorable to agricultural products. Buffett is a master at saying he is not looking at the short-term but has great confidence in time proving him right. I think the author has unfairly put Rogers stated views in a context of her own making. One does not have to be in "denial" to see that long-term, a growing world population will put increasing pressure on our agricultural resources and our ability to produce them. The world is always just two growing seasons away from a terrible crisis if nature does not smile on agriculture around the world. It makes sense to keep some exposure to this asset class regardless of the short-term view.
    Jan 21, 2010. 01:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taleb's 'Fooled by Randomness' and 'Black Swan': Proceeding Through Waiver, Doubt, Inquiry [View article]
    I find it interesting that you want to make a connection between Taleb's ideas and value investing. Keep in mind that Taleb's conclusion in Black Swan is to put 85% (or so) of one's money in the safest possible investment, and then put the rest in the most risky investment. That is not exactly value investing.
    Jan 20, 2010. 12:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Parsing Gary Shilling's Take on 2010 [View article]
    Any time you ignore asset classes and try to focus the portfolio on just a few, you greatly increase the overall risk. Everyone may have great ideas, and I have a lot of respect for Mr. Shilling, but to follow his advice to to try to become a trader, and about one in a 1000 is suitable at that. I will keep my broader allocation this year and not try to call the hot and cold spots. I am underweight most of the components of my allocation at this time, but I plan to raise them as the year goes on. It makes no sense to pick and choose when you just don't know what is going to happen.
    Jan 20, 2010. 12:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment