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Larry House  

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  • Parsing Gary Shilling's Take on 2010 [View article]
    Any time you ignore asset classes and try to focus the portfolio on just a few, you greatly increase the overall risk. Everyone may have great ideas, and I have a lot of respect for Mr. Shilling, but to follow his advice to to try to become a trader, and about one in a 1000 is suitable at that. I will keep my broader allocation this year and not try to call the hot and cold spots. I am underweight most of the components of my allocation at this time, but I plan to raise them as the year goes on. It makes no sense to pick and choose when you just don't know what is going to happen.
    Jan 20, 2010. 12:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Predictable Predictions for 2010 [View article]
    Everyone has a guess. Predictions are useless verbage. Trends are important. Analysis beats guessing every time. True investors in the Benjamin Graham tradition do not make predictions; they analyze companies, sectors, and the macro situation and invest or don't invest accordingly. Predictions are a waste of time to make and to write about.
    Jan 13, 2010. 03:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 11 Corporate Bonds Yielding 8% or More [View article]
    I have positions in ABHIX and PAXHX as reasonable exposure to high yield with good diversification.
    Jan 7, 2010. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Events Which Will Probably Not Happen in 2010 [View article]
    Interesting points. I don't think gold has an equal chance of going to $600. I would agree with a possible drop to $950, which I think would be a great entry point or add-more point. Inflation is in our future. It may not be right this minute, but it is coming. This is the time to get positions in commodities, TIPS, etc. to be ready when it comes.

    There are a host of very bad things (Black Swans) that could happen but may not in 2010--another financial crisis, a devastating terror attack, etc., but investors are in great peril to ignore them. Fact is, we just don't know what this year will hold, but it makes sense to prepare for some of the "fat tails" that are out there and swinging. I am keeping my diversified asset allocation in place, but I am underweight all components and overweight cash. There just might be some really good opportunities coming as well as threats.
    Jan 7, 2010. 10:42 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC Signals $70 Is the New Floor in Oil [View article]
    I think the OPEC comments make $70 more the median price than the floor.
    Dec 23, 2009. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunities in Agriculture and Soft Commodities [View article]
    I think making this call about 2010 is just a roll of the dice. There are still as many deflationary forces at work as there are inflationary. I think you can make a decade call for higher prices, but to pick out next year, while the world economy is still struggling and the U.S. is doing worse than that, it will just be luck if you are right.
    Dec 23, 2009. 10:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Outlook 2010: Moving Towards a Multi-Polar World Order [View article]
    Everyone reads the tea leaves a different way. Bill Gross of PIMCO sees 2010 as a year of deflation. You see a case for reflation in prices. I think world GDP will be less than 4% because of the drag of the U.S. I really think next year will be a year of muddling along with perhaps no great moves in anything as the world economy continues to shift and heal. Throw in a Black Swan or two, and 2010 may be a very lackluster investing climate.
    Dec 23, 2009. 10:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Debate: Here's Why You Should Be Wary [View article]
    I look at gold & silver as an insurance policy. I pay a lot of money for insurance of various kinds, and I think it only makes sense to carry some percentage of financial insurance in gold and silver. As insurance, I think about 5% is sufficient.
    Dec 23, 2009. 10:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unchartered Economic Waters [View article]
    True enough, David. Anyone who says the investing picture for 2010 is clear and predictable is crazy. We know what we have experienced so far, but we don't know what we don't know about the coming months. Caution is called for.
    Dec 22, 2009. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kass: Rate Hike Coming in April [View article]
    You have misrepresented Kass. He didn't present these as "surprises." He presented them as things that "could happen but probably won't." You should try to understand what the man is saying before you characterize him. This is pathetic. Read Kass for yourself at Don't rely on misrepresentations for information.
    Dec 22, 2009. 03:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: It Looks Like the Easy Money Has Already Been Made [View article]
    Right. And not just in China. If nothing else, 2010 will have many surprises, and the money will not be made where it was in 2009. I wish I knew where, but I bet it is much different.
    Dec 18, 2009. 03:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking of Going Long Oil? Here's What to Consider [View article]
    I think Ben has the smarts to captain the ship, but I don't think he can handle the higher-ups. No iceberg is too small to be missed this time. I am going to XOM to try to ride this out.
    Dec 18, 2009. 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pimco's Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, cuts Treasury holdings and boosted cash to the most since the Lehman collapse in 2008 amid increasing speculation that interest rates will rise. Over the past month, Pimco's Total Return Fund went to cash holdings of +7% from -7%, while Treasury holdings fell to 51% from 63%.  [View news story]
    SlingWing9, you appear to have some sound positions and a good outlook. TBT could move against you in the short term, but it is hard to see the dollar strengthening for long. If things really start going down hill, there is no good place to hide except in cash. I am using the drop in XOM to build a long-term (I hope) position there. Only time will tell if it is a good move.
    Dec 18, 2009. 03:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect a Double Dip Towards the Second Half of 2010 [View article]
    Economist Harry Dent and others have been warning for some time of a major move downward in stocks in late 2010. No one can know for sure. Caution is better than the opposite, has been for some time, and will continue to be.
    Dec 6, 2009. 11:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner [View article]
    I closed out my IRA a few months ago. I would rather pay the tax now that to pay the higher rates later. Also, I just wanted to be as liquid as possible. I think I will have better luck withdrawing mony from a cash brokerage account than from a bank one of these days.
    Nov 24, 2009. 04:31 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment