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Larry House  

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  • How Low Can This Market Go? The 40 Percent Solution [View article]
    Your last question is, of course, the 64 thousand dollar question. I appreciate your positive outlook expressed as "I don't think it will be that bad," and I am buying some stocks at this level (small percentage of portfolio) because I agree with you. You are right that a lot of things would have to go wrong at the same time to take us down 40%, and it could happen, but a slim chance. I do agree with some analysis that shows that we do have more things going wrong right now than happened in the Great Depression. A few economists, such as Dent, are predicting exactly that, another depression, a few quarters from now. I hope that is wrong and that solutions to our economic problems can be found to avoid the worst case outcome. This is a most challenging investing climate, requiring the greatest degree of caution. I am very concerned about fellow Baby Boomers who are hitting a very rough stretch just as retirement nears. I hope they come through this storm in good shape. Thanks for your frequent comments.
    Jul 11, 2008. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ready for Another Leg Down [View article]
    Good piece, Bob. We really have to roll with the punches of this market. Anyone who is inflexible will be crushed. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
    Jul 11, 2008. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chart of the Day: Anatomy of a Bear Market [View article]
    I hope, I hope, I hope this is just a type 1 or a type 2, but I am really concerned that this bear is going to be a type 3, and he is going to growl like we have never heard. I hope I am wrong.
    Jul 10, 2008. 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: General Electric [View article]
    I posted a short piece on GE a couple of days ago. It was acting better on Tuesday even before the market took off, and then yesteday happened. I think GE is holding its own right now as investors want to see what tomorrow brings, but I now think it isn't going to move the stock much. I think the CEO wants to reinvent the company. My guess, and it is just a guess, is that the company will eventually become more of an energy company--carbon and noncarbon. I think they will get out of finance and media if they can get the right price. I sold half of my position today on a bounce. I still want some skin in the game tomorrow when they announce, but I don't want to get skinned!
    Jul 10, 2008. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Can't Solve the World's Problems with Your Portfolio [View article]
    I just dont't get this author. You say it doesn't matter in handling other people's money if you are right or wrong? It sure would matter to me! By the way, being early is deadly in this market. I know. Your second paragraph is a real gem of double speak.
    Jul 10, 2008. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Appreciation Outshines Wall Street, Main Street [View article]
    If ever there was a time for gold, I think this is it. Can anyone tell me why AUY is taking a beating today with gold higher?
    Jul 10, 2008. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bearing Down [View article]
    I agree with you totally, User 118015. I think you can throw out the textbook. I get called a "doom and gloom" for my view, but what is happening now, facing a global recession, et al, is not covered in the textbooks. This economic time is unique. Even Jack Welch said to watch out for '09. We are just in the beginning of the economic rebalancing. It is foolish to talk about when the market "may" turn when we haven't begun to plumb the depths of where we are going. Better safe than sorry.
    Jul 10, 2008. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ADR Pass-Through Fees: Another Hand in Investors' Pockets [View article]
    Big banks are dangerous to your wealth. I believe in a fair profit for any service rendered, but many big banks come across as just wanting to enslave people through credit cards and then nickel and dime them until there is nothing left--the banks have it all!
    Jul 10, 2008. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confessions of a Former Inflationist [View article]
    Very interesting piece. This is a little different take on inflation than the screaming headlines present. Man, this is a crazy economic time!!
    Jul 10, 2008. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Gold to Protect a Portfolio [View article]
    I have had this strategy in place for some time. Time will tell how well it works.
    Jul 9, 2008. 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is it Time to Back Up the Truck? [View article]
    The market is not predictable to the point of waiting for a certain month to buy. Now appears to be a good time to buy BECAUSE everyone is waiting a little longer and hoping the market will be lower. It probably won't be. We are due a strong bounce. It doesn't mean a new bull market, but we are due a good rebound. It may be over by September.
    Jul 8, 2008. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Outlook: July 7th - July 11th [View article]
    Useful info. Thanks.
    Jul 8, 2008. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Market Continues - In Gold [View article]
    Right on.
    Jul 8, 2008. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Crosses a Line [View article]
    As they say, "All is fair in love and war." MSFT and YHOO are certainly at war, and I agree with you; I am getting disgusted with the way MSFT is pursuing this. YHOO is totally inept, and MSFT is a bully.
    Jul 8, 2008. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • July Market Catalysts: Data to Trump Sentiment [View article]
    Recently the local evening news had a segment on the activity of a local repo man. His monthly volume of business had gone up four or five times, he said, and he is making thousands of new dollars per month, a real windfall (I am sure Congress will want a special tax on that). People are walking away from payments on SUVs, motorcycles, RVs, boats, etc. in record numbers, and this is in a part of Midwest U.S. that is supposed to be recession resistant. Home values are holding up pretty well here. I think it is too soon to make any final statement about the health of the consumer. People will hold up less well to high gas prices the longer they stay this high, and they may climb! Others have reported that mortgage resets are reaching a peak this summer--another reason the final analysis on the consumer is not possible right now. It doesn't take a "collapse" just a slowing of the consumer to push a weak economy in the wrong direction. I don't think the consumer or the economy is going to collapse, but I do think we are in the early stages of a protracted slow, weakening economy that can't rebound robustly for quite a while. As investors, we really have to make a careful game plan, keep modest expectations, and do everything possible to keep capital safe. This is no economic climate in which to be a hero and go for broke. Broke is just what might happen.
    Jul 2, 2008. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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